Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xulescu]

I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...

You accumulate better if you short from time to time

[TERA]

TERA, walls are back -1450 sell wall at Huobi now, 530 sell wall earlier tonight at Stamp

EDIT: another 4-digit sell wall on Stamp

How about something more like this:

[silverfuture]

I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...

One does not simply blast off or choo choo mf without gathering fuel and laying some track.

[Davyd05]

I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...

You accumulate better if you short from time to time

..lol..I couldn't sleep in shorts...unless we we're speaking of reality.
Probably wouldn't sleep in longs or long johns either.

I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...

One does not simply blast off or choo choo mf without gathering fuel and laying some track.

Indeed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFE8nmKpmXY

no wonder its been slow.. re laying tracks isn't a fast process lol

[windjc]

I'm sorry, but if there is anyone on here that does not see the blatant similarities to the market's  sell off behavior now vs. the days leading up to the Gox closure, then you deserve not to make any money.

In the days preceding Gox closing, everyone was in denial (including myself).  The market just slowly melted down, with an uptick as rumors became darker and darker. Then finally the news hit and the market gave up.

The EXACT same thing is happening now. The writing is on the wall and only those in denial are buying now. Even shorts are stupid to cover as we are gaining downward momentum. Its t-minus 96 hours and the news of a major shutdown could happen at anytime virtually.

If you don't want to short (which is fine with me - less covering later) then you should not buy under any circumstances. Let this ride.

[silverfuture]

I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...

One does not simply blast off or choo choo mf without gathering fuel and laying some track.

Indeed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFE8nmKpmXY

no wonder its been slow.. re laying tracks isn't a fast process lol

[/quote]

..or safe in some instances

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o87MgkGAqeU

[Mythul]

So the dumping starts again... 

[Davyd05]

I'm sorry, but if there is anyone on here that does not see the blatant similarities to the market's  sell off behavior now vs. the days leading up to the Gox closure, then you deserve not to make any money.

In the days preceding Gox closing, everyone was in denial (including myself).  The market just slowly melted down, with an uptick as rumors became darker and darker. Then finally the news hit and the market gave up.

The EXACT same thing is happening now. The writing is on the wall and only those in denial are buying now. Even shorts are stupid to cover as we are gaining downward momentum. Its t-minus 96 hours and the news of a major shutdown could happen at anytime virtually.

If you don't want to short (which is fine with me - less covering later) then you should not buy under any circumstances. Let this ride.

man...if only people listened to this crap..and no offense to you but its pretty crap...as the gox and china situation hold almost no fundamental similarities...

your statements read to me as don't buy cause I think we're crashing at least 100 $ or more dollars by x date... also I'm shorting, join me in this process and profit... or don't but don't buy.

Mind you I don't doubt we shall dip.. but I hope the people you're telling not to buy already bought at 33x.xx

[Davyd05]

I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...

One does not simply blast off or choo choo mf without gathering fuel and laying some track.

Indeed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFE8nmKpmXY

no wonder its been slow.. re laying tracks isn't a fast process lol

..or safe in some instances

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o87MgkGAqeU
[/quote]

Yeah sad part of my history..sadly humanity has been taking advantage of one or another for far to long...I hope to see bitcoin rise to its full potential to help humans bank without third party crooks.

[windjc]

I'm sorry, but if there is anyone on here that does not see the blatant similarities to the market's  sell off behavior now vs. the days leading up to the Gox closure, then you deserve not to make any money.

In the days preceding Gox closing, everyone was in denial (including myself).  The market just slowly melted down, with an uptick as rumors became darker and darker. Then finally the news hit and the market gave up.

The EXACT same thing is happening now. The writing is on the wall and only those in denial are buying now. Even shorts are stupid to cover as we are gaining downward momentum. Its t-minus 96 hours and the news of a major shutdown could happen at anytime virtually.

If you don't want to short (which is fine with me - less covering later) then you should not buy under any circumstances. Let this ride.

man...if only people listened to this crap..and no offense to you but its pretty crap...as the gox and china situation hold almost no fundamental similarities...

your statements read to me as don't buy cause I think we're crashing at least 100 $ or more dollars by x date... also I'm shorting, join me in this process and profit... or don't but don't buy.

Mind you I don't doubt we shall dip.. but I hope the people you're telling not to buy already bought at 33x.xx

Really??!!

So, Gox dying does not = Houbi, BTCChina and OkCoin dying??

Oh yes it does. That is what is happening here. Do you not get it?

This is exactly the kind of denial I am referring to. This is happening. We are in the middle of it.

Do I think we go to $100? No. Although we did for an instant with the Gox situation.  Do I think we can retest 270? Yes I do. Do I think we will. I do not know. I will trade the market as it develops, however, people need to wake the F*** up!

[aliro38]

Isn't it ironic that the libertarian bitcoiners, champions of laissez-faire capitalism, are betting all their life savings on the hope that the Satoshi Bitcoin will be one day the only cryptocurrency in the market, so that they can charge monopoly prices for it?

Hm, isn't that copy-paste from a post of mine?

yep, I remember when you said it lol. Weird

Can I borrow that too? 
Anyway, add me to the subscribers' list.
One side note: I find it not so ironic but rather sad...

[Davyd05]

I'm sorry, but if there is anyone on here that does not see the blatant similarities to the market's  sell off behavior now vs. the days leading up to the Gox closure, then you deserve not to make any money.

In the days preceding Gox closing, everyone was in denial (including myself).  The market just slowly melted down, with an uptick as rumors became darker and darker. Then finally the news hit and the market gave up.

The EXACT same thing is happening now. The writing is on the wall and only those in denial are buying now. Even shorts are stupid to cover as we are gaining downward momentum. Its t-minus 96 hours and the news of a major shutdown could happen at anytime virtually.

If you don't want to short (which is fine with me - less covering later) then you should not buy under any circumstances. Let this ride.

man...if only people listened to this crap..and no offense to you but its pretty crap...as the gox and china situation hold almost no fundamental similarities...

your statements read to me as don't buy cause I think we're crashing at least 100 $ or more dollars by x date... also I'm shorting, join me in this process and profit... or don't but don't buy.

Mind you I don't doubt we shall dip.. but I hope the people you're telling not to buy already bought at 33x.xx

Really??!!

So, Gox dying does not = Houbi, BTCChina and OkCoin dying??

Oh yes it does. That is what is happening here. Do you not get it?

This is exactly the kind of denial I am referring to. This is happening. We are in the middle of it.

Do I think we go to $100? No. Although we did for an instant with the Gox situation.  Do I think we can retest 270? Yes I do. Do I think we will. I do not know. I will trade the market as it develops, however, people need to wake the F*** up!

No they clearly do not equal each other... M.K not having coins that customers owned.. vs a country bringing regulation in to place are nothing alike.. hey China could be worse...I don't know..based on the past with China I expect they'll continue to laugh and repeat we said you can't ban bitcoin.

I don't see where I refute the likeliness of a drop...so I'll just be glad you made your position a bit more clear to others.

[windjc]

I'm sorry, but if there is anyone on here that does not see the blatant similarities to the market's  sell off behavior now vs. the days leading up to the Gox closure, then you deserve not to make any money.

In the days preceding Gox closing, everyone was in denial (including myself).  The market just slowly melted down, with an uptick as rumors became darker and darker. Then finally the news hit and the market gave up.

The EXACT same thing is happening now. The writing is on the wall and only those in denial are buying now. Even shorts are stupid to cover as we are gaining downward momentum. Its t-minus 96 hours and the news of a major shutdown could happen at anytime virtually.

If you don't want to short (which is fine with me - less covering later) then you should not buy under any circumstances. Let this ride.

man...if only people listened to this crap..and no offense to you but its pretty crap...as the gox and china situation hold almost no fundamental similarities...

your statements read to me as don't buy cause I think we're crashing at least 100 $ or more dollars by x date... also I'm shorting, join me in this process and profit... or don't but don't buy.

Mind you I don't doubt we shall dip.. but I hope the people you're telling not to buy already bought at 33x.xx

Really??!!

So, Gox dying does not = Houbi, BTCChina and OkCoin dying??

Oh yes it does. That is what is happening here. Do you not get it?

This is exactly the kind of denial I am referring to. This is happening. We are in the middle of it.

Do I think we go to $100? No. Although we did for an instant with the Gox situation.  Do I think we can retest 270? Yes I do. Do I think we will. I do not know. I will trade the market as it develops, however, people need to wake the F*** up!

No they clearly do not equal each other... M.K not having coins that customers owned.. vs a country bringing regulation in to place are nothing alike.. hey China could be worse...I don't know..based on the past with China I expect they'll continue to laugh and repeat we said you can't ban bitcoin.

I don't see where I refute the likeliness of a drop...so I'll just be glad you made your position a bit more clear to others.

Actually I think we got a little off topic. I was just pointing out obvious technical patterns similarities as far as this downtrend. I believe we are picking up steam.

[BitChick]

I'm sorry, but if there is anyone on here that does not see the blatant similarities to the market's  sell off behavior now vs. the days leading up to the Gox closure, then you deserve not to make any money.

In the days preceding Gox closing, everyone was in denial (including myself).  The market just slowly melted down, with an uptick as rumors became darker and darker. Then finally the news hit and the market gave up.

The EXACT same thing is happening now. The writing is on the wall and only those in denial are buying now. Even shorts are stupid to cover as we are gaining downward momentum. Its t-minus 96 hours and the news of a major shutdown could happen at anytime virtually.

If you don't want to short (which is fine with me - less covering later) then you should not buy under any circumstances. Let this ride.

man...if only people listened to this crap..and no offense to you but its pretty crap...as the gox and china situation hold almost no fundamental similarities...

your statements read to me as don't buy cause I think we're crashing at least 100 $ or more dollars by x date... also I'm shorting, join me in this process and profit... or don't but don't buy.

Mind you I don't doubt we shall dip.. but I hope the people you're telling not to buy already bought at 33x.xx

This is the problem I have with being a bear. It's one thing to be a fucking delusional bull and cause people to buy in when the price is too high (as I'm sure I contributed to). But Idk, it just feels weird saying that the price is going to drop. I feel like more people will lose out by not buying bitcoin when it's low (or ever) than would lose out by buying bitcoin at an ATH. As I believe, for at least the next few years, that these people will come out ahead if they just hold on.

Maybe I still have some delusional bull left in me. I guess we'll see if the market can break it...

I doubt it.

For those of us that see the "big picture" of what Bitcoin can be, it has never been bad advice to buy and to buy as much as possible.  Sure it is better to take advantage of the lower prices when possible, but I really don't think it is delusional.    What can I say, I am a long term bull on here. 

I think it is great that with the latest China news the price is not moving too drastically.  This is bullish in my mind.  It will just be a matter of time now, perhaps a week or two, before people realize that the bottom is reached and start buying back in and the price will go up.  How high is the question.   

[Davyd05]

I'm sorry, but if there is anyone on here that does not see the blatant similarities to the market's  sell off behavior now vs. the days leading up to the Gox closure, then you deserve not to make any money.

In the days preceding Gox closing, everyone was in denial (including myself).  The market just slowly melted down, with an uptick as rumors became darker and darker. Then finally the news hit and the market gave up.

The EXACT same thing is happening now. The writing is on the wall and only those in denial are buying now. Even shorts are stupid to cover as we are gaining downward momentum. Its t-minus 96 hours and the news of a major shutdown could happen at anytime virtually.

If you don't want to short (which is fine with me - less covering later) then you should not buy under any circumstances. Let this ride.

man...if only people listened to this crap..and no offense to you but its pretty crap...as the gox and china situation hold almost no fundamental similarities...

your statements read to me as don't buy cause I think we're crashing at least 100 $ or more dollars by x date... also I'm shorting, join me in this process and profit... or don't but don't buy.

Mind you I don't doubt we shall dip.. but I hope the people you're telling not to buy already bought at 33x.xx

Really??!!

So, Gox dying does not = Houbi, BTCChina and OkCoin dying??

Oh yes it does. That is what is happening here. Do you not get it?

This is exactly the kind of denial I am referring to. This is happening. We are in the middle of it.

Do I think we go to $100? No. Although we did for an instant with the Gox situation.  Do I think we can retest 270? Yes I do. Do I think we will. I do not know. I will trade the market as it develops, however, people need to wake the F*** up!

No they clearly do not equal each other... M.K not having coins that customers owned.. vs a country bringing regulation in to place are nothing alike.. hey China could be worse...I don't know..based on the past with China I expect they'll continue to laugh and repeat we said you can't ban bitcoin.

I don't see where I refute the likeliness of a drop...so I'll just be glad you made your position a bit more clear to others.

Actually I think we got a little off topic. I was just pointing out obvious technical patterns similarities as far as this downtrend. I believe we are picking up steam.

Perhaps I am saying the idea conveyed by your message was, don't buy now its way to bearish out there, higher chance at a better entry price is coming but short with me if you have the balls...reads as some sort of advice.

What I think you mean to convey is that buying is not the way to profit with the current bearish sentiment...shorting is an option for the seasoned traders but waiting for clarity from China is  the next safest entry or re entry point for longer term plays.

[windjc]

I'm sorry, but if there is anyone on here that does not see the blatant similarities to the market's  sell off behavior now vs. the days leading up to the Gox closure, then you deserve not to make any money.

In the days preceding Gox closing, everyone was in denial (including myself).  The market just slowly melted down, with an uptick as rumors became darker and darker. Then finally the news hit and the market gave up.

The EXACT same thing is happening now. The writing is on the wall and only those in denial are buying now. Even shorts are stupid to cover as we are gaining downward momentum. Its t-minus 96 hours and the news of a major shutdown could happen at anytime virtually.

If you don't want to short (which is fine with me - less covering later) then you should not buy under any circumstances. Let this ride.

man...if only people listened to this crap..and no offense to you but its pretty crap...as the gox and china situation hold almost no fundamental similarities...

your statements read to me as don't buy cause I think we're crashing at least 100 $ or more dollars by x date... also I'm shorting, join me in this process and profit... or don't but don't buy.

Mind you I don't doubt we shall dip.. but I hope the people you're telling not to buy already bought at 33x.xx

This is the problem I have with being a bear. It's one thing to be a fucking delusional bull and cause people to buy in when the price is too high (as I'm sure I contributed to). But Idk, it just feels weird saying that the price is going to drop. I feel like more people will lose out by not buying bitcoin when it's low (or ever) than would lose out by buying bitcoin at an ATH. As I believe, for at least the next few years, that these people will come out ahead if they just hold on.

Maybe I still have some delusional bull left in me. I guess we'll see if the market can break it...

I doubt it.

For those of us that see the "big picture" of what Bitcoin can be, it has never been bad advice to buy and to buy as much as possible.  Sure it is better to take advantage of the lower prices when possible, but I really don't think it is delusional.    What can I say, I am a long term bull on here.  

I think it is great that with the latest China news the price is not moving too drastically.  This is bullish in my mind.  It will just be a matter of time now, perhaps a week or two, before people realize that the bottom is reached and start buying back in and the price will go up.  How high is the question.    

There is no problem with the bitcoin price. If 15 months ago, someone would have told you bitcoin would be 420 on May 5th, 2014, would you have been happy? Of course you would have.

The problem is a psychological one. The price shot to 1200 fueled by capital flight in China. And now that market is being erased and the price is coming back down.

It probably won't got to $13 or even close to what it was 15 months ago.

Its just the way of looking at things. Even if we go into the $200s for a little bit, is it REALLY that bad?

The only real losers will be the people that bought high (rookie mistake) and the people who bought mining equipment within the last 6 months (just plain stupid).

For the savvy trader its good and for bitcoin its neutral. Honey Badger doesn't give a fuck. Remember?

[xulescu]

Honey Badger doesn't give a fuck. Remember?

All BTC bears are actually BTC bulls. Otherwise they would be buying the SP500.

[windjc]

Does anyone have a hard time believing the market statistics at Bitfinex?

How can there be 15 million in margin longs? Its always around at least that much. People cannot afford to hold onto losses at the borrowing rates. It just can't be true in my opinion.

Likewise shorts only seem to fluctuate at most 20-25%. Doesn't seem possible (although more possible than longs, imo).

[JayJuanGee]

http://reason.com/blog/2014/04/28/doj-operation-chokepoint-and-porn-stars
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/mar/23/operation-choke-point-payday-lenders-issa-banks
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/04/16/operation-choke-point-the-battle-over-financial-data-between-the-government-and-banks/

The U.S government appears to be making a hard-sell case for Bitcoin.

They really seem to be talking out of both sides of their mouth... and accordingly engaging in selective enforcement tactics, which is NOT anything new.. to pick off the most vulnerable in society and pick off the most easy to target folks.

The government is not monolithic. There are many conflicting programs to make home buying both more affordable and more expensive at the same time for example. Actually the latter programs are supposed to prop up home prices, but that makes them less affordable to new purchasers. Every bureaucrat is a tin pot dictator within his own fiefdom and the unintended consequences on the other bureaucrats cause the conflict.  (This is how we win eventually).

I believe that you are again changing the subject - b/c I made my statement in response to the articles links referenced by Aminorex's post.   I am still a little bit unclear about the point that Aminorex was attempting to make by posting the links to those articles.   

BJA:  I agree with your point that the govt is NOT monolithic.. but I remain unclear about the relevance of your "tin pot dictator" assessment or your suggestion that "we" are attempting to win something - which seems to be referring to transitioning to libertarianism... and those latter points, though interesting in themselves do NOT seem to be the reason that Aminorex referenced those articles.

We're not just transitioning to libertarianism. That's far too mild. We're transitioning to crypto-anarchy, but it's going to be a long bloody struggle. The governments are aiding in this transition with their ham-fisted attempts at controlling the uncontrollable. We're giving the people the supply and the government is providing the demand. I know how crazy culty insane it appears to the uninitiated, but we are going to rebuild civilization itself, stronger faster better like the six million dollar man. We have the technology.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wntX-a3jSY

I do agree with you to the extent that we seem to be transitioning into some uncertain state of affairs that could get messy b/c of the fact that bitcoin (and other crypto currencies) are disruptive to the status quo.  Certainly, I do NOT feel that I have a very clear vision regarding how the struggle is going to play out, and I would NOT put it past various governmental and corporate institutions to engage in various co-optation tactics.  There will also be areas in which these entities are NOT able to co-opt and areas of ambiguity in which some semblance of freedom could prevail.  I would NOT want to predict too soon about whether and/or who suffers bloody battles or paradise(s) within this evolving new social order... but we likely know that the haves and the haves not tend to come out differently with any evolving change to the status quo.

[xulescu]

Does anyone have a hard time believing the market statistics at Bitfinex?

How can there be 15 million in margin longs? Its always around at least that much. People cannot afford to hold onto losses at the borrowing rates. It just can't be true in my opinion.

Likewise shorts only seem to fluctuate at most 20-25%. Doesn't seem possible (although more possible than longs, imo).

http://charts-bfxdata.rhcloud.com/bitfinexLiquidityPriceCombinedBTC.php
Look at all-time data on the second chart. It looks alright to me.
I suppose many baghodl instead of taking the loss. BFX has always been bullish.
And the rates are not that bad, you can definitely hold a position for a week or two.