Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

What next, am I suppose to expect to see  "Suddenly, PBOC completely changes their stance on bitcoin because of ethics note written by OKcoin. Bank accounts will no longer close."

[chessnut]

they are bargaining with key points to reach better regulation. they have underlined the issues that the PBOC has a problem with, and are trying to assume a responsible role with a key statement. it looks good.

[Davyd05]

What next, am I suppose to expect to see  "Suddenly, PBOC completely changes their stance on bitcoin because of ethics note written by OKcoin. Bank accounts will no longer close."

Pretty sure it was the top 5 exchanges.. and no.. but its nice to know they're communicating :d

[fortif78]

What next, am I suppose to expect to see  "Suddenly, PBOC completely changes their stance on bitcoin because of ethics note written by OKcoin. Bank accounts will no longer close."

Yep, something like that.

 

[windjc]

What next, am I suppose to expect to see  "Suddenly, PBOC completely changes their stance on bitcoin because of ethics note written by OKcoin. Bank accounts will no longer close."

Chessnut thinks so. Fundamentals in China agree.

BWAHAHAHAAHHAHAHHAHAAHHA!

[TERA]

"dear pboc. we have evaded you for 5 months and found a way around every one of your regulations, but now for once we fear you might actually be winning. So now, we are pleading you... please dont go through with this, because we're ethical. we will change. we swear."   It is like the last words of a dying prisoner or something.

[JayJuanGee]

I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...

You accumulate better if you short from time to time

Yes, in theory shorting could be profitable.  However, NOT a good time to short now b/c BTC prices seem to be way below the BTC price trend line.

In this regard, it can be good to short when btc prices are above the trend line and to buy when btc prices are below the trendline. 

Certainly, we have a variety of views concerning where is the trendline, exactly. 

Personally, I am NOT very sophisticated in my trading, but I would put the current BTC trendline in the $650 to $850 arena.  I have seen others making claims that the btc trend line is much higher than what I am saying.  You could also assess the BTC trendline to be much lower; nonetheless, at $425-ish, in many accounts of the trendline, we are still much below the trendline..

IN sum, this particular moment does NOT appear to be a good time to short - absent some certain news that BTC prices are going to go down by 5-15%.  i have NOT seen any such news, even though I have seen considerable fear mongering in that direction to suggest that for sure BTC prices are going down.  I remain NOT very confident in such a prediction.

[xulescu]

From 2009 Bitcoin birth, because of its innovative thinking , math and beautiful design , Bitcoin has developed in the world , many people think that bitcoins as a payment technology that can improve efficiency and reduce costs. Regulatory agencies around the world out of respect for innovation , given Bitcoin suitable for development , China's regulators are also very wisely gave Bitcoin relatively tolerant regulatory environment , and propose their own risk in the five ministries jointly file the case can be traded freely bitcoins .
However, we also see there are some problems bitcoins in China 's development, such as prices rose too fast , making the manipulator , the risk of lack of retail tips , etc., has led to the emergence of a number of small investors lost . As Bitcoin trading platform , currently appears on various issues , we do not shirk responsibility. Currently OKCoin, BtcTrade, fire currency network, bitcoin China , CHBTC five trading platform after deep reflection and discussion, decided to take a self- consistent action to promote positive development of Bitcoin .


Our joint commitment :

1, do Bitcoin transaction risk prompts to guide public investment concepts normal
2, do not participate in large marketing organizations and the nature of Bitcoin meetings or gatherings, meetings and lead the industry in the direction of technology development and application of innovative
3 , compliance with policies and regulations, in the framework of the operation of legal compliance trading platform before May 10 to stop financing new financing currency after currency to pay off all of the facility or stopping leveraged finance trading operations
4 , to curb excessive speculation and protect small investors , for a certain fee levied on high-frequency trading , the five trading platform will then discuss a unified rate
5 , to promote transparency in the process of trading platforms , control clearing , settlement risk link
6 , comply with the requirements of relevant state departments , strict real-name system certification, tracking suspicious transactions and perform anti-money laundering obligations feedback

7 , establish and improve the information disclosure mechanism , so that investors have full right to know
8 , regularly take the initiative to report the latest developments in the industry, the risk to the competent authorities , etc.

The following five Bitcoin trading platform for voluntary compliance of the agreement , and agreed to strengthen consultation and actively promote open and transparent Bitcoin transaction , let bitcoin healthy development in China , and accept the supervision of the parties.

Joint Statement Members:
OKCoin BtcTrade bitcoin currency network CHBTC China fire

did someone beat me to an English version?

edited for grammar on my part only.. and then pointed out something I think is interesting at the least lol

So TL;DR is something like this: warn public, no marketing, no cash in after 10.05 or ... no fractional reserve? or ... no more leverage for the traders?, then HFT tax = volume disappears, and finally "we will do what you want just please please"?

Did I get this right?

[mooncake]

"there must be news" - exactly what a pumper wants you to think.

　　从2009年比特币诞生开始，由于其思路创新、数学设计优美，比特币在世界各国都有所发展，很多人认为比特币作为一种支付技术，可以提高效率、降低成本。世界各国的监管机构出于对创新的尊重，给了比特币合适的发展空间，我国监管机构也非常睿智地给了比特币相对宽容的监管环境，并在五部委联合文件中提出自担风险的情况下可以自由买卖比特币。
　　然而我们也看到比特币在中国的发展中出现了一些问题，比如价格上涨过快、庄家操盘、对散户的风险提示不足等等，导致了一些中小投资者出现了损失。作为比特币交易平台，对目前出现的各种问题，我们的确负有不可推卸的责任。目前OKCoin、BtcTrade、火币网、比特币中国、CHBTC五家交易平台经过深刻的反省和讨论，决定采取一致的自律行动，促进比特币的积极发展。


我们联合承诺：

1、做好比特币交易风险提示，引导民众正常的投资观念
2、不组织及参与大型营销性质的比特币会议或集会，引导行业会议向技术及应用创新的方向发展
3、遵守政策法规，在合法合规的框架下运作交易平台，在5月10号之前停止新的融资融币，在全部融资或融币还清后停止杆杠交易业务
4、抑制过度投机，保护中小投资者，对高频交易征收一定的手续费，五大交易平台随后会讨论出统一的费率
5、推进交易平台透明化进程，控制好清算、结算环节的风险
6、遵守国家相关部门的要求，严格进行实名制认证，可疑交易跟踪反馈以及履行反洗钱义务

7、建立健全的信息批露机制，让投资者拥有充分知情权
8、定期主动向主管部门汇报行业的最新发展、风险等

以下五家比特币交易平台自愿遵守上述约定，并同意加强磋商，积极促进公开透明的比特币交易，让比特币在中国得到健康发展，同时接受各方的监督。

联合声明成员：
OKCoin BtcTrade 比特币中国 火币网 CHBTC

Oh I see. The pumpers wrote a statement.  What does this actually change.

Better to buy in now. Seems like the major exchanges and PBOC have reached some kind of agreement. While allowing to continue operating, exchanges will accept certain restrictions to prevent over-speculation. Transparency reduces uncertainly, translating to rising price.

[TERA]

"there must be news" - exactly what a pumper wants you to think.

　　从2009年比特币诞生开始，由于其思路创新、数学设计优美，比特币在世界各国都有所发展，很多人认为比特币作为一种支付技术，可以提高效率、降低成本。世界各国的监管机构出于对创新的尊重，给了比特币合适的发展空间，我国监管机构也非常睿智地给了比特币相对宽容的监管环境，并在五部委联合文件中提出自担风险的情况下可以自由买卖比特币。
　　然而我们也看到比特币在中国的发展中出现了一些问题，比如价格上涨过快、庄家操盘、对散户的风险提示不足等等，导致了一些中小投资者出现了损失。作为比特币交易平台，对目前出现的各种问题，我们的确负有不可推卸的责任。目前OKCoin、BtcTrade、火币网、比特币中国、CHBTC五家交易平台经过深刻的反省和讨论，决定采取一致的自律行动，促进比特币的积极发展。


我们联合承诺：

1、做好比特币交易风险提示，引导民众正常的投资观念
2、不组织及参与大型营销性质的比特币会议或集会，引导行业会议向技术及应用创新的方向发展
3、遵守政策法规，在合法合规的框架下运作交易平台，在5月10号之前停止新的融资融币，在全部融资或融币还清后停止杆杠交易业务
4、抑制过度投机，保护中小投资者，对高频交易征收一定的手续费，五大交易平台随后会讨论出统一的费率
5、推进交易平台透明化进程，控制好清算、结算环节的风险
6、遵守国家相关部门的要求，严格进行实名制认证，可疑交易跟踪反馈以及履行反洗钱义务

7、建立健全的信息批露机制，让投资者拥有充分知情权
8、定期主动向主管部门汇报行业的最新发展、风险等

以下五家比特币交易平台自愿遵守上述约定，并同意加强磋商，积极促进公开透明的比特币交易，让比特币在中国得到健康发展，同时接受各方的监督。

联合声明成员：
OKCoin BtcTrade 比特币中国 火币网 CHBTC

Oh I see. The pumpers wrote a statement.  What does this actually change.

Better to buy in now. Seems like the major exchanges and PBOC have reached some kind of agreement. While allowing to continue operating, exchanges will accept certain restrictions to prevent over-speculation. Transparency reduces uncertainly, translating to rising price.

I don't see anything there about the PBOC saying anything...

This isn't "exchanges and pboc reach agreement". This is "exchanges write note to beg and plead PBOC one last time".

[erono]

Well, it certainly can't help the Bitcoin to fluctuate wildly in prices. The prices has gone crazy, and while I think Bitcoins is worth more in years to come, I guarantee that the rest of the world will value it similarly.

[xulescu]

I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...

You accumulate better if you short from time to time

Yes, in theory shorting could be profitable.  However, NOT a good time to short now b/c BTC prices seem to be way below the BTC price trend line.

In this regard, it can be good to short when btc prices are above the trend line and to buy when btc prices are below the trendline. 

Certainly, we have a variety of views concerning where is the trendline, exactly. 

Personally, I am NOT very sophisticated in my trading, but I would put the current BTC trendline in the $650 to $850 arena.  I have seen others making claims that the btc trend line is much higher than what I am saying.  You could also assess the BTC trendline to be much lower; nonetheless, at $425-ish, in many accounts of the trendline, we are still much below the trendline..

IN sum, this particular moment does NOT appear to be a good time to short - absent some certain news that BTC prices are going to go down by 5-15%.  i have NOT seen any such news, even though I have seen considerable fear mongering in that direction to suggest that for sure BTC prices are going down.  I remain NOT very confident in such a prediction.

Do not try and bend the trendline. That's impossible. Instead only try to realize the truth.
What truth?
There is no trendline.

[mooncake]

I don't see anything there about the PBOC saying anything...

This isn't "exchanges and pboc reach agreement". This is "exchanges write note to beg and plead PBOC one last time".

You obviously do not understand how Chinese business works.

[BitAddict]

"dear pboc. we have evaded you for 5 months and found a way around every one of your regulations, but now for once we fear you might actually be winning. So now, we are pleading you... please dont go through with this, because we're ethical. we will change. we swear."   It is like the last words of a dying prisoner or something.

+1 thinking this announcement is bullish is being completely denial and blind.

Of course we all know how the markets works, if all the people is being denial we will see a short term rally.

[JorgeStolfi]

Hey Jorge, I heard you named Earth Mover Distance in like... last century. Came up in my research. My respect for you grows.

Thanks, but it turned out that the concept had been discovered in the next-to-next-to-last-century already, by Gaspard Monge in 1781, precisely for the problem of moving earth in roadworks:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaspard_Monge
The paper in question seems to be "Sur la théorie des déblais et des remblais" (Mém. de l’acad. de Paris, 1781), but I haven't read it.

See also
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_mover%27s_distance (check the Talk page)

The Russians apparently prefer to give all the honor to the Russian Wasserstein rather than Monge:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wasserstein_metric

[Davyd05]

...so when do you close the shorts Wind.. Tera do you even have a short open?

Just asking.. I know it requires a combination of volume and price change just wondering...

[xulescu]

Hey Jorge, I heard you named Earth Mover Distance in like... last century. Came up in my research. My respect for you grows.

Thanks, but it turned out that the concept had been discovered in the next-to-next-to-last-century already, by Gaspard Monge in 1781, precisely for the problem of moving earth in roadworks:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaspard_Monge
The paper in question seems to be "Sur la théorie des déblais et des remblais" (Mém. de l’acad. de Paris, 1781), but I haven't read it.

See also
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_mover%27s_distance (check the Talk page)

The Russians apparently prefer to give all the honor to the Russian Wasserstein rather than Monge:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wasserstein_metric

Huh, interesting. Truth be told by that distinction I was using the Wasserstein metric. I always assumed they are the same thing, just like all laws of large numbers are the same thing even if some some weird names.

Completely unrelated, I had the luck to take an introductory class to probability theory with Sinai (student of Kolmogorov) and that guy is simply a presence... Apparently he won some "lifetime" 6M NOK prize. I bet he's spent it on vodka imports already.

[windjc]

I don't see anything there about the PBOC saying anything...

This isn't "exchanges and pboc reach agreement". This is "exchanges write note to beg and plead PBOC one last time".

You obviously do not understand how Chinese business works.

Please enlighten us.

[windjc]

...so when do you close the shorts Wind.. Tera do you even have a short open?

Just asking.. I know it requires a combination of volume and price change just wondering...

I am not closing my shorts. If we rally up I will add more.

[xulescu]

...so when do you close the shorts Wind.. Tera do you even have a short open?

Just asking.. I know it requires a combination of volume and price change just wondering...

I bet they have their shorts open from 500+ and have no plan to close.