Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mah87]

Downloadable client. Brain new.

https://ripple.com/blog/ripple-labs-releases-downloadable-ripple-client/

[cech4204a]

Downloadable client. Brain new.

https://ripple.com/blog/ripple-labs-releases-downloadable-ripple-client/

thanks, but i still need 25 XRP before i can get trust/grant whatever this is...so anybody with 25 XRP ?

[JayJuanGee]

I keep waiting and waiting for my cheap coins and dumbass politicians do something to convince the world that they are going to screw up everything they can screw up and Bitcoin is needed more than ever.

The waiting is over:
JPMorgan Shut Down A World-Famous Economist's Bank Account With No Warning http://www.businessinsider.com/jpm-shuts-down-ocampos-bank-account-2014-5

Heh, this JP Morgan Chase thing is fascinating. They are shutting down "high risk" accounts, which essentially translates to anyone not meeting the status quo, I guess. The definition of "high risk" is probably going to become really fuzzy soon (more so than now), as they realize that it's in their best interest to freeze pretty much any account. High balance accounts provide them with free liquidity which they can play with until the entire process is resolved, while low balance accounts threaten to take them in the red otherwise, and have their own maintenance costs associated. The best part is, it's all state sanctioned!

They've essentially made themselves immune to a bank run, at the cost of perhaps driving away some customers to the competition. But what are customers during a run on banks? Liabilities.

With quantitative easing and fractional reserve banking, they really do NOT need customers. 

We are redundant, and that is one of the reasons why they charge us to use their bank and to keep our money there or possibly, if we are lucky and keep large sums of money with them, they will pay us .001% interest on our balances.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday May 08

Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-05-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2838 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 460 USD





[ Plot legend ]

The data point for today May/07 was good (S = 0.0029, W = 0.857).  Now that we have two data points since the last assumed break, it seems reasonable to assume a straight line trend defined by them.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/06, A = 2672, B = +83.

(Another option would be a shifted exponential trend defined by the last three points, May/05--07; but that would expose me to jeers and taunts from the audience for being overbullish.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.17 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.16 today (May/07), but 6.23 yesterday, and 6.18, 6.16, 6.17 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-05-06, 21:29 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-05-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~22 hours later)

The predicition was bad, as expected from the banal extrapolation:

Huobi's predicted price: 2672 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2755 CNY
Error: 83 CNY (~13 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 430 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 450 USD
Error: 20 USD
 
NOTE: Extrapolating the current trend, by the end of June the date will be May 61, 2014.

[mah87]

Downloadable client. Brain new.

https://ripple.com/blog/ripple-labs-releases-downloadable-ripple-client/

thanks, but i still need 25 XRP before i can get trust/grant whatever this is...so anybody with 25 XRP ?

A BTC to XRP bridge is actually in beta. You send some btc and it's automaticcaly trnasfered

ANyway , send me your address I'll fund your account.

[cech4204a]

Downloadable client. Brain new.

https://ripple.com/blog/ripple-labs-releases-downloadable-ripple-client/

thanks, but i still need 25 XRP before i can get trust/grant whatever this is...so anybody with 25 XRP ?

A BTC to XRP bridge is actually in beta. You send some btc and it's automaticcaly trnasfered

ANyway , send me your address I'll fund your account.

thanks for offer, but i just got my ''donor''

[oda.krell]

The predicition was bad, as expected from the banal extrapolation:

[...]
 
NOTE: Extrapolating the current trend, by the end of June the date will be May 61, 2014.

You might be a pigheaded statist neo-luddite when it comes to our little crypto experiment, but I like your sense of humor.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

Downloadable client. Brain new.

https://ripple.com/blog/ripple-labs-releases-downloadable-ripple-client/

thanks, but i still need 25 XRP before i can get trust/grant whatever this is...so anybody with 25 XRP ?

A BTC to XRP bridge is actually in beta. You send some btc and it's automaticcaly trnasfered

ANyway , send me your address I'll fund your account.

thanks for offer, but i just got my ''donor''

Congratulations, mah! Finally reeled a sucker in, after all those fruitless posts, month after month after month.

The Wall Observers are proud of you!

[rudrigorc2]

Sorry for the offtipic

I have some ripple, each 7.5k XRP  I can accept 1 BTC. Are you interested?

[JorgeStolfi]

why we fight

Needless to say, most of those "advantages" are killer disadvantages to most people (and to all governments, including highly democratic ones).  Like "there are no age requirements" --- guess who wanted those reqirements in the first place.

Others are demonstrably false or misleading, eg. "it is more difficult to be used as surveillance", "it can be used to resist corruption",  "it can be extremely hard to steal", "it allows movement across borders", ...

And, as usual, it says "bitcoin" when all those properties hold for any cryptocurrency with similar protocol, and many of the good ones hold even for cryptocurrencies with centralized management.

[boumalo]

I wonder if a side effect of China's exchanges being hamstrung (at best) is that Chinese miners will stop mining because there's no easy way to sell their coins. That would lead to a drop in difficulty, benefiting miners elsewhere - though potentially placing further downward pressure on prices on the remaining exchanges.

I would think that the commercial Chinese miners can easily sell their coins in the Western exchanges or to Western clients, using Western bank accounts, all legally.  The closure of Chinese exchanges may be a problem for small independent miners, perhaps.

Chinese miners hold like crazy

If anyone is interested: I saved about 1 hour of Huobi's transaction log from earlier today (2014-07-07) centered on 02:54 UTC.  That's in the middle of the small hump that preceded today's mini-rally.

http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-07-0254-HUBI.txt

The file has 879 transactions.  It was built by repeated copy-pasting from Bitcoinwisdom's chart (which shows only the last 200 transactions) reformatted and cleaned by a couple of gawk scripts.  Beware of possible gaps or errors.

Unix users may be interested in the scripts too:

http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/cleanup_bitcoinwisdom_trans_log.gawk
Basic reformat/cleanup script.  Click on the chart, then CTRL-A CTRL-C, then paste into a file,
then pipe the file through, for example,

  gawk -f cleanup_bitcoinwisdom_trans_log.gawk -v curr=CNY -v ex=Huobi -v dt=2014-05-07

http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/remove_dup_trans.gawk
A script to merge several files obtained as above, with overlapping time intervals.
Save each CTRL-A CTRL-C to a separate file, run the cleanup fillter above on each file,
then concatenate the files in chronological order (most recent last), and
pipe the concatenation through

  gawk -f remove_dup_trans.gawk
 

I just lost some time looking at that, explain it to me

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Downloadable client. Brain new.

https://ripple.com/blog/ripple-labs-releases-downloadable-ripple-client/

thanks, but i still need 25 XRP before i can get trust/grant whatever this is...so anybody with 25 XRP ?

You can PM me your address to get your ripple wallet funded. There are also "pay it forward" ripple giveaways on ripple forums, to help solve the wallet funding problem

Bridge sometimes does not work, you can also trade directly

[cech4204a]

Downloadable client. Brain new.

https://ripple.com/blog/ripple-labs-releases-downloadable-ripple-client/

thanks, but i still need 25 XRP before i can get trust/grant whatever this is...so anybody with 25 XRP ?

You can PM me your address to get your ripple wallet funded. There are also "pay it forward" ripple giveaways on ripple forums, to help solve the wallet funding problem

Bridge sometimes does not work, you can also trade directly

i got 25 XRp from a guy here, i need 6 more... when i want to trade BTC to XRP it says: You must have at least 30 XRP to submit an order. More information.
address to send is rD2Uw6FyBAj1GVAXv5rARgB3mPob1wbDLE

i only need 6 XRP

[JorgeStolfi]

I just lost some time looking at that, explain it to me

The file is nothing complicated.  Each line is a trade on the Huobi.com exchange, as reported by Bitcoinwisdom.com's chart (lower right corner). The columns are date, time, the price in CNY (yuan), and the amont of BTC traded.

That data may be useful to people who find such data useful.    E. g. to compute trades per minute, average transaction size, etc..

I still don't know of any place that offers such logs for download.  One could get them throgh the charting API, I suppose, but that requires some programming anyway; maybe I will do that some day, hopefully before Huobi closes for good.   Copy-paste from the chart seems simpler for short samples.

[TERA]

[shmadz]

next time it dips i'm buying more.

nice adam! did you catch any of that 450 on virtex yesterday?

I had a little chunk waiting there, with many more down below.

When I got the email from the first nibble, I was all like sitting back and waiting for the rest of my orders to be filled...


... I'm still waiting...

too greedy? maybe, but I am tired of chasing the price.

From now on, I will let the price come to me.

[mah87]

I just lost some time looking at that, explain it to me

The file is nothing complicated.  Each line is a trade on the Huobi.com exchange, as reported by Bitcoinwisdom.com's chart (lower right corner). The columns are date, time, the price in CNY (yuan), and the amont of BTC traded.

That data may be useful to people who find such data useful.    E. g. to compute trades per minute, average transaction size, etc..

I still don't know of any place that offers such logs for download.  One could get them throgh the charting API, I suppose, but that requires some programming anyway; maybe I will do that some day, hopefully before Huobi closes for good.   Copy-paste from the chart seems simpler for short samples.

why not using huobi api ?

[adamstgBit]

next time it dips i'm buying more.

nice adam! did you catch any of that 450 on virtex yesterday?

I had a little chunk waiting there, with many more down below.

When I got the email from the first nibble, I was all like sitting back and waiting for the rest of my orders to be filled...


... I'm still waiting...

too greedy? maybe, but I am tired of chasing the price.

From now on, I will let the price come to me.

I had bought a few at 470 & 460 the other week, when i saw 450 I decided it was better to wait for lower lows.

[Blue]

no coal trailer - not going anywhere !!