Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dreamspark]

sshhh no ones long in China in bear land.

[BitAddict]

Bears covering before the margin cutoff on Chinese exchanges, May 10.   No more speculative leverage trading that led to the bubble.

They finally realized, BTC is not going below 400 before tomorrow so time to buy back and close their positions.

what about longs?

Bitfinex is 75% longs and 25% shorts.

If Chinese exchanges follow the same pattern... We should see more sells than buys.

I'm still trying to find that info... but I guess is not public like in Bitfinex

[RUEHL]

Bears covering before the margin cutoff on Chinese exchanges, May 10.   No more speculative leverage trading that led to the bubble.

They finally realized, BTC is not going below 400 before tomorrow so time to buy back and close their positions.

what about longs?

If there were more longs than shorts on margin,  we'd be headed in the opposite direction going into the 10th.

[JayJuanGee]

The 3d MACD has moved into green (if only slightly) on most exchanges and the 1w is backing off... I'm quite positive.

I am NOT sure what any of this means, either... but the 3d has been pretty solidly green, and even the 1 week is turning into a green in recent hours.

The 1w MACD is no where near crossing...

I was referring to the color of the candle - rather than the crossing of the lines.  I understand that the crossing of the lines is a much more delayed occurrence - with a need for several green candles before the lines cross.

[lebing]

Look, btcwisdom has Bollinger bands now. How convenient.





Like I said a few days ago, I don't want to be a pessimist, but I prefer to wait til there's actually something noteworthy going on before I start cheering.

Not only didn't we break through a number of plausible (log) downwards trendlines that have been making the rounds for a while now, we're not even in the upper BB half. Go back to July 2013 to see what a decisive reversal looks like wrt BB.

If we manage to fight our way into the upper half of daily BB, and then break through the upper band, or alternatively (and more realistically) bounce off of it but at least find support at the BB mid line (SMA20, now at 460), I'm going to get cautiously bullish, but not earlier.


But I already know what the bulls will say... that's just a permabear talking, trying to spoil our fun

If we would be at the top of the bands, we would have already broken the triangle... So if they go up that high, they will go far far higher... ie this is not the best indicator to be using at the moment.

[dreamspark]

The 3d MACD has moved into green (if only slightly) on most exchanges and the 1w is backing off... I'm quite positive.

I am NOT sure what any of this means, either... but the 3d has been pretty solidly green, and even the 1 week is turning into a green in recent hours.

The 1w MACD is no where near crossing...

I was referring to the color of the candle - rather than the crossing of the lines.  I understand that the crossing of the lines is a much more delayed occurrence - with a need for several green candles before the lines cross.

Im not sure I see what your saying. This is the 1w chart...



How is the latest MACD candle green? They have to cross for that to happen.

[YogoH]

We broke out of the triangle. Please fasten all seatbelts.

[adamstgBit]

we appear to be setting up for another leg up.

i'm scared someone hold me.

[dreamspark]

we appear to be setting up for another leg up.

i'm scared someone hold me.

Its okay, you've been here before, I know its been a while but try to remember all that you learnt.

Better ? 

[akujin]

we appear to be setting up for another leg up.

i'm scared someone hold me.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

Personally I think what we're seeing here is the lead up to the Chinese exchanges closing CNY trading.

All the signs are that these exchanges will no longer be able to hold CNY balances since no Chinese banks will deal with them.

Assuming the above is correct then traders are faced with a choice of how much CNY vs BTC they want to hold.  The CNY they will have to withdraw at some point and some may wish to take some money back since it could be month/years before trading resumes. (Assuming a long term outlook is that China cannot avoid bitcoin forever that is)
Any BTC they are left with should be considered long term savings then or useful only for any foreign business or say a holiday outside of China.

So if all USD trading was to cease for an indefinite period what would you do ?
Cash out or commit and buy BTC for the long hold ?

For myself I'm in this for the long run, say 5+ years so I would want to be 100% BTC and not withdraw any Fiat at all.

It's could be an interesting few days

[oda.krell]

Look, btcwisdom has Bollinger bands now. How convenient.


[...]


Like I said a few days ago, I don't want to be a pessimist, but I prefer to wait til there's actually something noteworthy going on before I start cheering.

Not only didn't we break through a number of plausible (log) downwards trendlines that have been making the rounds for a while now, we're not even in the upper BB half. Go back to July 2013 to see what a decisive reversal looks like wrt BB.

If we manage to fight our way into the upper half of daily BB, and then break through the upper band, or alternatively (and more realistically) bounce off of it but at least find support at the BB mid line (SMA20, now at 460), I'm going to get cautiously bullish, but not earlier.


But I already know what the bulls will say... that's just a permabear talking, trying to spoil our fun

If we would be at the top of the bands, we would have already broken the triangle... So if they go up that high, they will go far far higher... ie this is not the best indicator to be using at the moment.

My point was, even if you don't trust trendlines (log or linear), which are in the end just estimations of the boundaries of trends based on candle/price extrema, a similar picture can be developed based on moving averages: nothing noteworthy has happened yet.

[TERA]

It seems like the action always reverses as soon as we see a new Glimpse of the Huobi order book piled up with asks. Same thing happened the other night.

[Walsoraj]

Could be foreigners removing bitcoin from exchanges because they do not have chinese bank accounts. Once this process is complete, buying pressure will rapidly decline and double single digit coins become a real possibility.

Bump for truthiness.

[thezerg]

keep an eye on that 450 BTC swap demand on bitfinex.   At .006% there's only one reason to fill it...

[rudrigorc2]

we appear to be setting up for another leg up.

i'm scared someone hold me.

Comer over here pal

[Carra23]

Could be foreigners removing bitcoin from exchanges because they do not have chinese bank accounts. Once this process is complete, buying pressure will rapidly decline and double single digit coins become a real possibility.

Bump for truthiness.

Bump for delusionalness.

Hoping for 300-350, though

[Macno]

Hi,

I don`t know if this has already been discussed in this huge thread, but I could not find it.
I am currently reading the amended filling for the Winklevoss BTC ETF, but I`m not done yet and not that familiar with US investment law so maybe it`s faster to ask here...
(filling is linked in here http://www.coindesk.com/winklevoss-twins-plan-nasdaq-listing-for-bitcoin-etf-in-new-sec-filing/).

1. I remember the concept of "baskets" that the Trust creates from the Gold ETF GLD. The "authorized participants" who could create baskets and then sell shares of the ETF to retail customers were big banks, if I remember correctly. Has anyone here an idea who those "authorized participants" could be with the Winklevoss ETF?

2. I am wondering how a pretty liquid instrument (= NASDAQ listed ETF) is supposed to handle the very thin underlying market (=Bitcoin) and where (=what exchange?). Say some investor pushes a button and purchases ETF shares for 100.000 USD, which is pretty much nothing, for the current live NAV. How does the ETF manage to get enough BTC at the same price? What`s wrong with my thought that you would buy the ETF for a BTC price equivalent of say 450 USD/BTC and your purchase drives the price to let`s say 465 USD/BTC, just because of the lag of the ETF buying those BTC?

Thx

[JayJuanGee]

The 3d MACD has moved into green (if only slightly) on most exchanges and the 1w is backing off... I'm quite positive.

I am NOT sure what any of this means, either... but the 3d has been pretty solidly green, and even the 1 week is turning into a green in recent hours.

The 1w MACD is no where near crossing...

I was referring to the color of the candle - rather than the crossing of the lines.  I understand that the crossing of the lines is a much more delayed occurrence - with a need for several green candles before the lines cross.

Im not sure I see what your saying. This is the 1w chart...



How is the latest MACD candle green? They have to cross for that to happen.

It appears that I was referring to the price and to the volume candles, and I was NOT referring to the MACD candle.

In that regard, whatever I was saying may have been mumbo jumbo in the prediction realm - and different from what you were saying b/c I am NOT very familiar with the MACD - besides seeing when the line crosses up or down.  So maybe in the end, it could be best to disregard my references to the possibly less than meaningful green candles... he he he..