Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[wachtwoord]

Hi,

I don`t know if this has already been discussed in this huge thread, but I could not find it.
I am currently reading the amended filling for the Winklevoss BTC ETF, but I`m not done yet and not that familiar with US investment law so maybe it`s faster to ask here...
(filling is linked in here http://www.coindesk.com/winklevoss-twins-plan-nasdaq-listing-for-bitcoin-etf-in-new-sec-filing/).

1. I remember the concept of "baskets" that the Trust creates from the Gold ETF GLD. The "authorized participants" who could create baskets and then sell shares of the ETF to retail customers were big banks, if I remember correctly. Has anyone here an idea who those "authorized participants" could be with the Winklevoss ETF?

2. I am wondering how a pretty liquid instrument (= NASDAQ listed ETF) is supposed to handle the very thin underlying market (=Bitcoin) and where (=what exchange?). Say some investor pushes a button and purchases ETF shares for 100.000 USD, which is pretty much nothing, for the current live NAV. How does the ETF manage to get enough BTC at the same price? What`s wrong with my thought that you would buy the ETF for a BTC price equivalent of say 450 USD/BTC and your purchase drives the price to let`s say 465 USD/BTC, just because of the lag of the ETF buying those BTC?

Thx

The same as the gold ETF. Regular investors can only buy and sell funded shares. Only special accounts can create new baskets by supplying the Bitcoin themselves. Similarly they can redeem baskets and get the Bitcoins.

[JayJuanGee]

Could be foreigners removing bitcoin from exchanges because they do not have chinese bank accounts. Once this process is complete, buying pressure will rapidly decline and double single digit coins become a real possibility.

Bump for truthiness.

Thanks for Exhibit A  - which seems to be a non-contextualized bull crap FUD spreading effort to quote yourself...

I believe I mentioned something like this earlier about this kind of Walsoraj tendency to post crap that has little connection with "real possibilities"

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Hi,

I don`t know if this has already been discussed in this huge thread, but I could not find it.
I am currently reading the amended filling for the Winklevoss BTC ETF, but I`m not done yet and not that familiar with US investment law so maybe it`s faster to ask here...
(filling is linked in here http://www.coindesk.com/winklevoss-twins-plan-nasdaq-listing-for-bitcoin-etf-in-new-sec-filing/).

1. I remember the concept of "baskets" that the Trust creates from the Gold ETF GLD. The "authorized participants" who could create baskets and then sell shares of the ETF to retail customers were big banks, if I remember correctly. Has anyone here an idea who those "authorized participants" could be with the Winklevoss ETF?

2. I am wondering how a pretty liquid instrument (= NASDAQ listed ETF) is supposed to handle the very thin underlying market (=Bitcoin) and where (=what exchange?). Say some investor pushes a button and purchases ETF shares for 100.000 USD, which is pretty much nothing, for the current live NAV. How does the ETF manage to get enough BTC at the same price? What`s wrong with my thought that you would buy the ETF for a BTC price equivalent of say 450 USD/BTC and your purchase drives the price to let`s say 465 USD/BTC, just because of the lag of the ETF buying those BTC?

Thx

The same as the gold ETF. Regular investors can only buy and sell funded shares. Only special accounts can create new baskets by supplying the Bitcoin themselves. Similarly they can redeem baskets and get the Bitcoins.

Basically, you will be buying from the Twins. That is why I do not understand why people consider it bullish - they already got the BTC, now they will be selling them

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

I have not learnt yet how to attach charts, but looks like there is a bearish divergent on 15 mins chart on Huobi (between price and Stochastic RSI)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

I have not learnt yet how to attach charts, but looks like there is a bearish divergent on 15 mins chart on Huobi (between price and Stochastic RSI)

It is 1am in China so regardless of TA indicators I doubt that there will be much more action for the next few hours.

[oda.krell]

I have not learnt yet how to attach charts, but looks like there is a bearish divergent on 15 mins chart on Huobi (between price and Stochastic RSI)

Upload to imgur (seems to be the most reliable image host for display in this forum, other hosts tend to be blocked), then bind it in between the

Code:

[img][/img]

tags.

[Macno]

Basically, you will be buying from the Twins. That is why I do not understand why people consider it bullish - they already got the BTC, now they will be selling them

Will I? As I read the prospectus, the authorized participants will have to deliver the BTC to have baskets (of shares) created. The authorized participants are not the Twins. The Twins would have to sell their BTC to the authorized participants, which they could of course. Is that what you are alluding to?

I am still curious who those authorized participants are going to be:

"Authorized Participants are the only persons that may place orders to create and redeem Baskets. Authorized Participants must be (1) registered broker-dealers or other securities market participants, such as banks and other financial institutions, which are not required to register as broker-dealers to engage in securities transactions, and (2) direct participants in DTC. "

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514190365/d721187ds1a.htm#toc721187_14

If the names are big, I don`t think the Twins will necessarily have to sell their BTC...I think it actually could be bullish.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Basically, you will be buying from the Twins. That is why I do not understand why people consider it bullish - they already got the BTC, now they will be selling them

Will I? As I read the prospectus, the authorized participants will have to deliver the BTC to have baskets (of shares) created. The authorized participants are not the Twins. The Twins would have to sell their BTC to the authorized participants, which they could of course. Is that what you are alluding to?

I am still curious who those authorized participants are going to be:

"Authorized Participants are the only persons that may place orders to create and redeem Baskets. Authorized Participants must be (1) registered broker-dealers or other securities market participants, such as banks and other financial institutions, which are not required to register as broker-dealers to engage in securities transactions, and (2) direct participants in DTC. "

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514190365/d721187ds1a.htm#toc721187_14

If the names are big, I don`t think the Twins will necessarily have to sell their BTC...I think it actually could be bullish.

I have not read the fine print, but I know the Twins have ~100,000 BTC and are in the process of registering a vehicle to sell BTC to the masses ... Now if you connect the dots ... They are also doing a lot to pump bit coin price, like announcing last year that the true value was 3,000 or 30,000 ... either way, nobody still accumulating would do this. So either they want to sell immediately or in the future

[nioc]

- they told us to go to hell in the earliest opportunity
- after complying, the bitcoins were secured and we did not find any transfers made in the meanwhile

Trip report?

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

I have not learnt yet how to attach charts, but looks like there is a bearish divergent on 15 mins chart on Huobi (between price and Stochastic RSI)

Upload to imgur (seems to be the most reliable image host for display in this forum, other hosts tend to be blocked), then bind it in between the

Code:

[img][/img]

tags.

Thanks The divergences I spotted are not worthy this work, though. And as somebody pointed out, it is night at China now, so things may remain stagnant anyway.

[MahaRamana]

Hi,

I don`t know if this has already been discussed in this huge thread, but I could not find it.
I am currently reading the amended filling for the Winklevoss BTC ETF, but I`m not done yet and not that familiar with US investment law so maybe it`s faster to ask here...
(filling is linked in here http://www.coindesk.com/winklevoss-twins-plan-nasdaq-listing-for-bitcoin-etf-in-new-sec-filing/).

1. I remember the concept of "baskets" that the Trust creates from the Gold ETF GLD. The "authorized participants" who could create baskets and then sell shares of the ETF to retail customers were big banks, if I remember correctly. Has anyone here an idea who those "authorized participants" could be with the Winklevoss ETF?

2. I am wondering how a pretty liquid instrument (= NASDAQ listed ETF) is supposed to handle the very thin underlying market (=Bitcoin) and where (=what exchange?). Say some investor pushes a button and purchases ETF shares for 100.000 USD, which is pretty much nothing, for the current live NAV. How does the ETF manage to get enough BTC at the same price? What`s wrong with my thought that you would buy the ETF for a BTC price equivalent of say 450 USD/BTC and your purchase drives the price to let`s say 465 USD/BTC, just because of the lag of the ETF buying those BTC?

Thx

The same as the gold ETF. Regular investors can only buy and sell funded shares. Only special accounts can create new baskets by supplying the Bitcoin themselves. Similarly they can redeem baskets and get the Bitcoins.

Basically, you will be buying from the Twins. That is why I do not understand why people consider it bullish - they already got the BTC, now they will be selling them

There is no evidence that their goal is to reduce their personal exposure to bitcoin through their ETF. If that was their goal, they would slowly sell on some exchanges. Why bother going through all the hassle of creating an ETF to reduce your exposure ? Does not make sense.
Having lots of BTC at their disposal allows them to create the required credibility and initial reserves backing up the ETF. However the ETF will be actively trading in the back-side and most likely buying enough BTC to cover their customers shares.

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

Basically, you will be buying from the Twins. That is why I do not understand why people consider it bullish - they already got the BTC, now they will be selling them

Will I? As I read the prospectus, the authorized participants will have to deliver the BTC to have baskets (of shares) created. The authorized participants are not the Twins. The Twins would have to sell their BTC to the authorized participants, which they could of course. Is that what you are alluding to?

I am still curious who those authorized participants are going to be:

"Authorized Participants are the only persons that may place orders to create and redeem Baskets. Authorized Participants must be (1) registered broker-dealers or other securities market participants, such as banks and other financial institutions, which are not required to register as broker-dealers to engage in securities transactions, and (2) direct participants in DTC. "

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514190365/d721187ds1a.htm#toc721187_14

If the names are big, I don`t think the Twins will necessarily have to sell their BTC...I think it actually could be bullish.

I have not read the fine print, but I know the Twins have ~100,000 BTC and are in the process of registering a vehicle to sell BTC to the masses ... Now if you connect the dots ... They are also doing a lot to pump bit coin price, like announcing last year that the true value was 3,000 or 30,000 ... either way, nobody still accumulating would do this. So either they want to sell immediately or in the future

From the coindesk article :

According to the SEC filing, the ETF is expected to IPO for 1m total shares. Each share is worth one-fifth of a bitcoin, which would mean that the trust controls 200,000 BTC and at recent prices would be worth roughly $87 per share.

Nobody is buying or selling BTC when trading on the NASDAQ with this trust, they are trading in the shares which represent the value of a fixed amount of bitcoin.

[Macno]

So either they want to sell immediately or in the future

Well, don`t we all want to do that at some point (buying stuff for BTC is also selling BTC)?

So noboby knows who those authorized participants will be and where those people will get their BTC from?
Can players as described above ("(1) registered broker-dealers or other securities market participants, such as banks and other financial institutions, which are not required to register as broker-dealers to engage in securities transactions, and (2) direct participants in DTC.) really do unaudited (shady?) OTC deals like simply buying the BTC from the Twins?

[Macno]

Nobody is buying or selling BTC when trading on the NASDAQ with this trust, they are trading in the shares which represent the value of a fixed amount of bitcoin.

The retail investor is not, as in the Gold ETF, but the authorized participants are:

"The Trust will create and redeem Shares from time to time, but only in one or more Baskets (a Basket equals a block of [50,000] Shares). The creation and redemption of Baskets will only be made in exchange for the delivery to the Trust, or the distribution by the Trust, of the number of whole and fractional bitcoins represented by the Baskets being created or redeemed, the number of which will be based on the combined NAV of the number of Shares included in the Baskets being created or redeemed determined on the day the order to create or redeem Baskets is properly received."

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514190365/d721187ds1a.htm#toc721187_14

[coins101]

Basically, you will be buying from the Twins. That is why I do not understand why people consider it bullish - they already got the BTC, now they will be selling them

Will I? As I read the prospectus, the authorized participants will have to deliver the BTC to have baskets (of shares) created. The authorized participants are not the Twins. The Twins would have to sell their BTC to the authorized participants, which they could of course. Is that what you are alluding to?

I am still curious who those authorized participants are going to be:

"Authorized Participants are the only persons that may place orders to create and redeem Baskets. Authorized Participants must be (1) registered broker-dealers or other securities market participants, such as banks and other financial institutions, which are not required to register as broker-dealers to engage in securities transactions, and (2) direct participants in DTC. "

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514190365/d721187ds1a.htm#toc721187_14

If the names are big, I don`t think the Twins will necessarily have to sell their BTC...I think it actually could be bullish.

I have not read the fine print, but I know the Twins have ~100,000 BTC and are in the process of registering a vehicle to sell BTC to the masses ... Now if you connect the dots ... They are also doing a lot to pump bit coin price, like announcing last year that the true value was 3,000 or 30,000 ... either way, nobody still accumulating would do this. So either they want to sell immediately or in the future

From the coindesk article :

According to the SEC filing, the ETF is expected to IPO for 1m total shares. Each share is worth one-fifth of a bitcoin, which would mean that the trust controls 200,000 BTC and at recent prices would be worth roughly $87 per share.

Nobody is buying or selling BTC when trading on the NASDAQ with this trust, they are trading in the shares which represent the value of a fixed amount of bitcoin.

On the first day of trading, each Share in the initial Baskets was comprised of [0.20] bitcoins.

The trust doesn't actually do anything other than offer some sort of cold storage. You are buying shares to access bitcoins in safe keeping.

For bitcoin, this comes close to the purist definition for: The Emperor's New Clothes

But, giving institutions access to Bitcoin does mean that others will want to get in on the action of buying Bitcoins at market value, storing them, creating a Trust shell around the Bitcoins, selling shares in the Trust and then charging a management fee for holding them and making them available to entities that have restrictions on the asset classes they can purchase.

Lots of new copycat Trusts buying Bitcoins - that is when we can expect the next train to depart. Verdict: CCMF.

[freebit13]

The 3d MACD has moved into green (if only slightly) on most exchanges and the 1w is backing off... I'm quite positive.

I am NOT sure what any of this means, either... but the 3d has been pretty solidly green, and even the 1 week is turning into a green in recent hours.

The 1w MACD is no where near crossing...

I was referring to the color of the candle - rather than the crossing of the lines.  I understand that the crossing of the lines is a much more delayed occurrence - with a need for several green candles before the lines cross.

Im not sure I see what your saying. This is the 1w chart...



How is the latest MACD candle green? They have to cross for that to happen.

I use the long-term MACD (1wk, 3day) to attempt gauge general market sentiment.

I've been waiting for 2 weeks for the 3d to turn green, expecting an upswing, but it's been dragged along like a dead horse for too long. Huobi and OKCoin turned green on the 3d  last week and got my hopes up, but that didn't last long. It has been mirrored by the boredum everywhere on this thread because nobody wants to do anything at the moment and seems to be waiting for everyone else.

The 1 week MACD is still very red (as seen above^^), but receding, if the 3d stays green for a couple of days, it will support the 1w and once that turns green... it's to da moon!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[UnDerDoG81]

So, may 10th, CCMF?

[niothor]

So, may 10th, CCMF?

I think nothing will happen , the usual weekend.
I'm putting my hopes more for the 12th than the 10th.