Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

I can foresee a future where a decentralized, distributed, public record of public funds would have some demand and therefore some value in this world.

If you don't want public funds embezzled, require that all government spending be on-chain.  Anyone who actually wants democratic accountability should be all over that.  If your political opponent objects, well then, prima facie, he is corrupt.

If you want elected officials to be accountable for the source of their financial support, require that political donations be on-chain.

I can see the future

[windjc]

So is this the new Huobi with fees?

I can't see any new news about that on Huobi's homepage.  The "red lamp" link (notice 357, 2014-05-06 13:38:51 CST) still shows the "five exchanges agreement" and the attachment to that (notice 356, 2014-05-06 13:35:07 CST) still says "HFT fees to be determined".

According to the latter, however, they discontinued leverage at 00:00 May/10.

That is what I decyphered with Google Translate.

I wish I could believe any of that. But I can't.

[Miz4r]

I'm confused. On one hand the bulls argue for bitcoin to be this free renegade anarchist currency. Then on the other hand, the same bulls are all about getting wall street involved, government invovled, regulations, oversight, aml/kyc, and paper-traded etfs. etc. I guess whatever concept provokes the most price increase in the context of the topic at hand is the right one to use for them.

It's not that easy, first of all I don't believe all the bulls agree with both of your assumptions here. Some don't want all those parties involved, some others see it as a temporary necessary evil to launch Bitcoin into the mainstream and they hope that once Bitcoin establishes itself it will revolutionize governments, banks and the entire financial world in such a way that most of the problems we have with Wall Street, banks and governments will simply disappear and it no longer will be an issue. And there are also other bulls who aren't idealistic at all and just want those parties involved to get the price up. Personally I belong to the second group, for now I think it's a necessary evil to work with these parties if we ever want Bitcoin to become something more than a niche thing.

Actually to correct myself here I don't think that calling banks or governments 'evil' is the right way to go about it, they are not really the enemy in my book and I don't really like that way to frame things. I don't even consider myself an anarchist or libertarian or whatever, although I may agree with a lot of the things they say. I just see certain problems within the financial system we humans have created, and I personally am of the opinion that a decentralized digital currency like Bitcoin could fix a lot of these problems. That's the whole reason I'm here. Banks and governments aren't necessarily bad or evil, they're just doing what they're supposed to be doing with the means they have at their disposal. Yes, they've grown into monsters but that's also because we have let them become like that. And sometimes a revolution is necessary to fix these things, a non-violent technological one if possible. I don't really expect Bitcoin to completely do away with banks and governments altogether, but I do think it (or its successor) will change the way they work and do business and I believe those changes could be a very positive thing for all of us. Including the banks and governments themselves because they're just as much a part of us.

[TERA]

[shmadz]

I'm afraid to ask, but, what happens in wave #6?

[SheHadMANHands]

Don't those charts just look like they're hurtin for a squartin?

[adamstgBit]

I'm afraid to ask, but, what happens in wave #6?

TERA contemplates covering his short
I buy
U HODL!!!!!!!!!

[windjc]

Just asking - seriously - does it not concern anyone that the markets are following an exchange whose CEO recently said in an interview they are looking at options either to move offshore and/or separate themselves COMPLETELY from receiving fiat deposits?  A CEO that has apparently stopped leveraged trading and will impose restrictions and fees on HFT in response to a banking system that we know is slowly but surely tightening it noose around all deposit options?

THIS ^^^ is what we are hanging this new "bull market" on?

Look, I want BTC to be worth 10K+ as much as anyone here, but how in the world are the current state of affairs bullish?

[chessnut]

that is a primary wave, not very bearish. even in a bearish case, it must be followed by an impulsive C wave.

however, the third wave of that count is an abc. not valid. a better count is an inpulsive leading diagonal, it has all the characteristic features. it also implies that we have begun the first wave of III or C towards 470 at least.

[shmadz]

I'm afraid to ask, but, what happens in wave #6?

TERA contemplates covering his short
I buy
U HODL!!!!!!!!!

I fear the vertical move. I feel it is coming, but I don't know when.

I get the feeling that when this downtrend breaks to the upside, it might be a violent move.

[adamstgBit]

Just asking - seriously - does it not concern anyone that the markets are following an exchange whose CEO recently said in an interview they are looking at options either to move offshore and/or separate themselves COMPLETELY from receiving fiat deposits?  A CEO that has apparently stopped leveraged trading and will impose restrictions and fees on HFT in response to a banking system that we know is slowly but surely tightening it noose around all deposit options?

THIS ^^^ is what we are hanging this new "bull market" on?

Look, I want BTC to be worth 10K+ as much as anyone here, but how in the world are the current state of affairs bullish?

imagine what price gonna do when current state of affairs really is bullish

kicking bitcoin while its down is not wise....bitcoin is hot shit!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

<snip>

Just asking - seriously - does it not concern anyone that the markets are following an exchange whose CEO recently said in an interview they are looking at options either to move offshore and/or separate themselves COMPLETELY from receiving fiat deposits?  A CEO that has apparently stopped leveraged trading and will impose restrictions and fees on HFT in response to a banking system that we know is slowly but surely tightening it noose around all deposit options?

THIS ^^^ is what we are hanging this new "bull market" on?

Look, I want BTC to be worth 10K+ as much as anyone here, but how in the world are the current state of affairs bullish?

the actions of off-shore exchanges is a little-bit concerning, but for some countries, they have established bitcoin exchange for almost 3 years now, not many countries, but still... at least in Canada they have an exchange that is actively able to deposit and debit your bank account directly to and from the exchange and then into or out of whatever currency you like from there.

the limitations for virtex are that you limit your transactions to CAD-only, and that you transact with only Canadian residents.

it limits the chance for fraud greatly, as this method greatly limits the anonymity of  the perpetrators of deceit.

(*until it is revealed that virtex has been running a fractional reserve system all these years, in which case, we're screwed.*)

**edit** I think the truly trustless systems are at least 2 years into the future.

[adamstgBit]

see you guys monday.

[TERA]

see you guys monday.

... to the sun?

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday May 10

Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-05-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2739 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 441 USD





[ Plot legend ]

The data point for today May/09 was very bad (S = 0.0134, W = 0.028) and again way off the assumed trend (straight line defined by two previous points).  The Method then says to use a weighted least squares straight-line fit of the last three points (with very low weight for the third one) rather than the straight line of the last two points.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/07, A = 2752.99, B = -6.05.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.21 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.21 today (May/09) and yesterday, and 6.16, 6.23, 6.18 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-05-09, 00:43 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-05-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~18 hours later)

Foiled again by the treacherous Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2731 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2802 CNY
Error: 71 CNY (~11 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 440 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 451 USD
Error: 11 USD
 
NOTE: "Vision is the art of seeing things invisible." -- Jonathan Swift.

[aminorex]

... to the sun?

But, soft! what light through yonder window breaks?
It is the east, and Bitcoin is the sun.
Arise, fair sun, and kill the envious moon,
Who is already sick and pale with grief,
That thou her maid art far more fair than she:
Be not her maid, since she is envious;
Her fiat livery is but sick and green
And none but fools do wear it; cast it off.

[Searing]

... to the sun?

But, soft! what light through yonder window breaks?
It is the east, and Bitcoin is the sun.
Arise, fair sun, and kill the envious moon,
Who is already sick and pale with grief,
That thou her maid art far more fair than she:
Be not her maid, since she is envious;
Her fiat livery is but sick and green
And none but fools do wear it; cast it off.

ROFLMAO

[shmadz]

... to the sun?

But, soft! what light through yonder window breaks?
It is the east, and Bitcoin is the sun.
Arise, fair sun, and kill the envious moon,
Who is already sick and pale with grief,
That thou her maid art far more fair than she:
Be not her maid, since she is envious;
Her fiat livery is but sick and green
And none but fools do wear it; cast it off.

alright, it's official. dogecoin can go to the moon, litecoin too, but bitcoin is going to the sun!

I actually like the metaphor (not sure that's the right term) of bitcoin = sun.

bitcoin = sun = light = out in the open = no secrets done under cover of darkness

*paraphrasing*
"for the world is generally opposed to secret societies which can only do their business under cover of darkness"
 - *I think i remember some guy saying something like that once upon a time.*

bitcoin is the eternal sun shining upon any and all transactions that the transactors wish to be made public.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation