Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kellrobinson]

The chart indexes bitcoin price by block height, with halvings marked on major grids every 210,000 blocks.  Price cycling influenced solely by the halvings will be rendered on the oscillator as a triangle wave.  For years at a time, the oscillator indeed takes the shape of a triangle wave (with a little superposed transient stochastic stuff).  The entire period between the second and third halvings, and the long bull run that ended last year, hew to a triangle wave with a wavelength of 210,000 blocks that peaks in the second quarter of the halving period.  What's imponderable in the context of this halving-detector oscillator, like the dip in the 2021 double top after the third halving, which is matched by a deep divot in the oscillator, may result from exogenous macro influences.  Whatever the case, bitcoin price action appears once more to have departed from orderly halving-influenced behaviour, as seen in the oscillator's recent precipitous drop.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

as i mentioned earlier today my three predictions happened
gold dropped when it opened
silver dropped when it opened

btc went up with the gold and silver markets opening
seems obvious that the ten plus countries near iran 🇮🇷 do not want to hold physical items as they have zero protection from missiles.

we may now see a huge shift from metals to btc.
making four cycle believers weep in sorrow for dumping coins last fall.
as always or not.

but jjg does say btc is 1000x the value of gold.

JJG also says that it could take 50-200 years for the market prices to reflect true value...

Sure, it is possible that there could be some world/macro events that help to accelerate more accurate valuations, yet I am not going to hold my breath - which surely might suggest that I don't get too excited about short term charts... even though directionally there might be certain times like our current times in which bitcoin's non-physicality is being appreciated by the market - not that miners (or their machines) are non-physical... but yeah, if such machines are scattered around the globe, then surely transactions can be made without such physicality levels.

[philipma1957]

as i mentioned earlier today my three predictions happened
gold dropped when it opened
silver dropped when it opened

btc went up with the gold and silver markets opening
seems obvious that the ten plus countries near iran 🇮🇷 do not want to hold physical items as they have zero protection from missiles.

we may now see a huge shift from metals to btc.
making four cycle believers weep in sorrow for dumping coins last fall.
as always or not.

but jjg does say btc is 1000x the value of gold.

JJG also says that it could take 50-200 years for the market prices to reflect true value...

Sure, it is possible that there could be some world/macro events that help to accelerate more accurate valuations, yet I am not going to hold my breath - which surely might suggest that I don't get too excited about short term charts... event hough directionally there might be certain times like these in which bitcoin's non-physicality is appreciated - not that miners (or their machines) are non-physical... but yeah, if such machines are scattered around the globe, then surely transactions can be made without such physicality levels.

Gold down
Silver down

Btc 73500 up

Rotation to the blockchain of btc to protect wealth

Gold and silver are no protection from drones.

More than 21 countries in range of Iran's attacks.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Rotation to the blockchain of btc to protect wealth

Gold and silver are no protection from drones.
More than 21 countries in range of Iran's attacks.

Could be? Could be?

I am glad that "we" already got some a long time ago.

literally.. the real "we" not the "royal we" alone.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

[edited out]

Rotation to the blockchain of btc to protect wealth

Gold and silver are no protection from drones.
More than 21 countries in range of Iran's attacks.

Could be? Could be?

I am glad that "we" already got some a long time ago.

literally.. the real "we" not the "royal we" alone.

 

Yeah I stacked a lot of corn since the drop.

Relative of course .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Paashaas]

Sentiment is more bullish than anticipated when those longs below $70K not getting liquidated.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

This is a very interesting point that we've reached at this moment.

Considering various price targets and other stuff that I'm not understanding of, I may make a picture of the chart on my phone and lines that I put on it because I like to do that just to feel like I have some kind of input to technical analysis.

[philipma1957]

Well it is nice to see 74234 vs 59890

this is a gain of 23.9%

We all know we need to go a lot high but this is a bit of relief for people running the mines.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   940899  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   92.3721%  (1444 / 1563.24 expected, 119.24 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   144398401518100.9                            
Current Difficulty:   145042165424853.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 134008865645469 and 134834567752043
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.6070% and -7.0377%
Previous Retarget:   March 5, 2026 at 12:25 PM  (+0.4458%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 2:55 PM  (in 4d 4h 58m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 5:10 PM  (in 4d 7h 12m 20s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 1h 30m 45s and 15d 3h 44m 46s

now when we hit 126 k on oct 6 the difficulty was 142t

so if the difficulty becomes 134t

price only needs to be 134/142x126= 118,901  for profits to be the same

Trumps decison to attack Iran has helped mining a bit except for of course in Iran.

Time will tell if this rally gets any where near 118k and is a real bull and not a baby bull.

But 250 million people are in the Middle East that have had their countries hit by bombs drones missiles and they are very likely to continue buying btc to protect their wealth from destruction.

Gold went under 5k today it is back to 5032