Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OgNasty]

Let the FUD times roll…

Fun fact. Almost exactly 4 years ago on March 22-29 of 2022, Bitcoin printed 8 straight daily green candles after falling 40% from it’s all time high reached just months earlier. Over the next 80 days the Bitcoin price fell victim to another 60% dip. History may not repeat itself, but I’m waiting and listening for the rhyme.

it seems most of us are waiting

some, for new lows (after we already fell 63% ..quite different from your 40% example, isn't it?)

and others for new highs.


the probability for new highs is almost 100% ....for new lows... well, definitely not that much. I wouldn't bet on it. And my risk avoidance strategy in BTC made me enough money to live the life I like...

You make a good point that we have fallen much farther and much faster than traditional 4 year cycles. For this reason I do expect the drop from here to be less than 60%. I personally think we bottom somewhere in the $46K range, which is around another 40% dip from here. However, inflation has been higher this cycle and Saylor is doing crazy things, so we might fall a bit short of my expectations. I still expect a bottom in the June-September time period though. We are all expecting big things in the future once this bear market is over, but for now I would still recommend patience to be better safe than sorry.

[cAPSLOCK]

There may be a few stoners here, yes, but there are not very many brain dead people on this thread for what it's worth.  

I would be willing to bet that the overall intelligence here is down and to the right on the famous bell curve.

And it's not just people here. Folks like Carl Sagan (billions and billions), Francis Crick (discovered the DNA double helix), Steve Jobs (changed society arguably more than almost any other human, for better and for worse)...  The list goes on.

I humbly suggest you might update your suppositions made around those who enjoy cannabis on one level or another.

@cAPSLOCK - If it's allowed by state law, then those people who are attracted to mind-altering chemicals that interact with their brain's central nervous system I guess will want to use it.  That's not for me!

I personally prefer not smelling it because i think it stinks. And, I prefer not being around people, or dealing with people, that use it because they act slow or overly moody, one way or another that can change in an instant.

I don't like the idea of drivers, especially commercial 18-wheeler drivers, using it because it impairs their cognitive function; attention span and the ability to perform complex tasks, like driving a truck weighing 80,000lbs while under the influence. I think commercial truck drivers are actually strictly prohibited from using marijuana, regardless of whether it is legal for recreational or medical use in their home state. I believe there is good reason for that - wonder why!  Marijuana is still prohibited for recreational use in 26 states, and it remains federally illegal in the United States.  Maybe some people feel they need it, but I haven't needed it...  

Sure.. surgeons, truck drivers, heavy machinery operators, cops.  There's a lot of people that should not be doing their job under the influence of it, that's for sure.

There are also people who use it to microdose. THC is dopaminergic and people who have need for a pharmaceutical like welbutrin, for example, may be able to manage tiny doses of THC to achieve something similar.  And it's interesting if you think about it. If someone accidentally took too much welbutrin, you would need to get them to a hospital quickly. But if somebody took a little bit too much THC, you're just going to need to order a pizza.

But haven't we had this conversation already?

@cAPSLOCK - I get a healthy dose of natural dopamine by accomplishing goals. For me accomplishing goals triggers a distinct dopamine release - and that 'brain reward' enhances my motivation to make further accomplishments. Even small accomplishments gives dopamine rewards - big accomplishments provides an extra longer lasting reward, but each dopamine release is a wonderful feeling. Being a Type A Alpha I do not need chemical THC for that feeling - it comes about naturally for me.  

I would agree that achievement and exercise are two of the most wonderful ways to create more dopamine.   Unfortunately for us, scrolling out our phones seems to be an intensely dopaminergic activity as well.

But there are ways that are possible to modulate your dopamine one way or another with fairly small amount of risk when it comes to using a substance, for example.

Coffee is an extremely dopaminergic drug... or caffeine, I should say. I roast my own beans. I put a lot of work into my coffee and I do enjoy two or three cups in a day. Maybe a little more than I ought to drink.  But for now, I'm good with it. I got myself a fabulous coffee machine that can make a single cup as easily as a pot.

But coffee would be a good example of a very socially acceptable dopamineergic drug. It's often supplied by the office place or it was back when we worked together in person...

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I appears there is a large number of brain-dead stoners here on bitcointalk.  

Could be.

Could be.

They don't even post in all bold, neither.  They must got their lil selfie some "issues."

Worse yet some of them might have had found out about bitcoin through Silk Road.

I have told the story before of the guy who introduced me to bitcoin in late 2013 (November) based on his having had "accidentally" suffered a great bitcoin windfall from his having had opened up a Silk Road account in 2012 ish..

I stayed in contact with him a few year, and he even told me about this thread in February 2014.. At the same time, I get a sense that the guy that I knew (through the internet) did not end up doing too well with bitcoin, yet you never know. 

He ended up going down the BIG blocker route, and he was posting some crazy ass shit in mid-to-late 2016, including that for sure he thought that bitcoin was going to die based on the implosion of Bitfinex in around early August 2016.. There was something wrong with that cat... yet he was really young too.. so even when he told me about bitcoin in late 2013, I already had some pretty good inclinations that my involvement in bitcoin was going to go better than his involvement in bitcoin even though he had nearly a 1.5 year head start on me...  ..

Some people just get too far into their own heads or something and then they make mistakes, while not learning from their mistake, including but not limited to making sure to stay focused on bitcoin stacking (or at least bitcoin holding).. not bitcoin adjacent, but bitcoin itself.  Of course, there are a lot of guys who make mistake in relation to bitcoin, and some mistakes are more detrimental than others, and sometimes it can take quite a bit of time (rolling the dice) before the bad habits end up taking their toll and putting the mistakes into perspective.. including that we cannot go back in time when we have mistakes that likely relate to our overall approach and our need to fix our faulty perspective.

[edited out]

...paperbitcoinboy could make for a pretty nice reading lamp.

Nice...!!!! I want one of those.

[edited out]

@cAPSLOCK - If it's allowed by state law, then those people who are attracted to mind-altering chemicals that interact with their brain's central nervous system I guess will want to use it.  That's not for me!

I personally prefer not smelling it because i think it stinks. And, I prefer not being around people, or dealing with people, that use it because they act slow or overly moody, one way or another that can change in an instant.
I don't like the idea of drivers, especially commercial 18-wheeler drivers, using it because it impairs their cognitive function; attention span and the ability to perform complex tasks, like driving a truck weighing 80,000lbs while under the influence. I think commercial truck drivers are actually strictly prohibited from using marijuana, regardless of whether it is legal for recreational or medical use in their home state. I believe there is good reason for that - wonder why!  Marijuana is still prohibited for recreational use in 26 states, and it remains federally illegal in the United States.  Maybe some people feel they need it, but I haven't needed it...  

I hate to agree with such a dweeb on the point that I know some folks (perhaps even several) who seemed to have had screwed up their lives, since they cannot get certain kinds of work based on their lifestyle choices that involves a lot of smoking of marijuana.. ..

Let the FUD times roll…
Fun fact. Almost exactly 4 years ago on March 22-29 of 2022, Bitcoin printed 8 straight daily green candles after falling 40% from it’s all time high reached just months earlier. Over the next 80 days the Bitcoin price fell victim to another 60% dip. History may not repeat itself, but I’m waiting and listening for the rhyme.

it seems most of us are waiting
some, for new lows (after we already fell 63% ..quite different from your 40% example, isn't it?)
and others for new highs.

the probability for new highs is almost 100% ....for new lows... well, definitely not that much. I wouldn't bet on it. And my risk avoidance strategy in BTC made me enough money to live the life I like...

That is a repeated error that we see in bitcoin is guys selling too much too soon, and I suppose it is o.k. if they end up buying back in at a lower price, yet part of the problem is that they have a habit, they get greedy and overall they end up underperforming (really underperforming, especially in a timeline that is greater than a couple of cycles)..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

[edited out]

@cAPSLOCK - If it's allowed by state law, then those people who are attracted to mind-altering chemicals that interact with their brain's central nervous system I guess will want to use it.  That's not for me!

I personally prefer not smelling it because i think it stinks. And, I prefer not being around people, or dealing with people, that use it because they act slow or overly moody, one way or another that can change in an instant.
I don't like the idea of drivers, especially commercial 18-wheeler drivers, using it because it impairs their cognitive function; attention span and the ability to perform complex tasks, like driving a truck weighing 80,000lbs while under the influence. I think commercial truck drivers are actually strictly prohibited from using marijuana, regardless of whether it is legal for recreational or medical use in their home state. I believe there is good reason for that - wonder why!  Marijuana is still prohibited for recreational use in 26 states, and it remains federally illegal in the United States.  Maybe some people feel they need it, but I haven't needed it...  

I hate to agree with such a dweeb on the point that I know some folks (perhaps even several) who seemed to have had screwed up their lives, since they cannot get certain kinds of work based on their lifestyle choices that involves a lot of smoking of marijuana.. ..

"a lot of..." is almost never turning out good.
In fact, when i had the possibility to smoke (what i did back then) all day - i was much younger - it started to get feeling uncomfortable to be slowed, mind-wise, and also a little fatigued, pretty soon.
That changed after i stopped smoking tobacco and switched to vaporizers for weed.
I also like it to decelerate my mind in the evening, or it would mean up-until-4am for me.
Not using it at daytimes. The big excuse is "medical", but everybody who consumes weed says that, right?  

[BTCETFInvestor]

Cango Inc., a Bitcoin miner, reported a $452.8 million net loss on $688.1 million revenue. The company sold Bitcoin to reduce debt.

► https://news.bitcoin.com/cango-reports-452m-net-loss-despite-688m-revenue-in-first-full-year-of-bitcoin-mining/

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

We are all expecting big things in the future once this bear market is over, but for now I would still recommend patience to be better safe than sorry.

Interesting.

Many of "us", in these here parts, consider "better safe than sorry" to be in bitcoin rather than being in dollars, yet sure, everyone is entitled to their own perspective - even if their perspective is not very smart.

 

By the way, over the years, perhaps especially after I got involved in bitcoin and have been trying to learn about (and even to remember and to remind my lil selfie) why bitcoin has a decently strong investment thesis, I have witnessed a lot of losers who have thought and who have persisted in thinking (despite evidence to the contrary) that being in dollar is safe, especially, for example, they should know better, in the event that they are a self-proclaimed expert in bitcoin and even a self-proclaimed expert in other aspects of finance that precedes their nearly 15 years in bitcoin. Do you know anyone like that?

[edited out]

"a lot of..." is almost never turning out good.
In fact, when i had the possibility to smoke (what i did back then) all day - i was much younger - it started to get feeling uncomfortable to be slowed, mind-wise, and also a little fatigued, pretty soon.
That changed after i stopped smoking tobacco and switched to vaporizers for weed.
I also like it to decelerate my mind in the evening, or it would mean up-until-4am for me.
Not using it at daytimes. The big excuse is "medical", but everybody who consumes weed says that, right?  

It could be good as a way to sleep.  I have met quite a few people who seem to depend upon sleeping pills, and surely sometimes I am tempted to take something so that I can fall asleep right away and then get a sound night's sleep.

Although in recent time, there has been quite a bit of discussion of the way that light exposure might be screwing quite a few of the modern day peeps, likely including yours truly, in regards to our exposure to various electronic devices, screens and even including the kinds of lights that we are using in our houses, workplaces and other places that we are spending our time.

[Hueristic]

[edited out]

@cAPSLOCK - If it's allowed by state law, then those people who are attracted to mind-altering chemicals that interact with their brain's central nervous system I guess will want to use it.  That's not for me!

I personally prefer not smelling it because i think it stinks. And, I prefer not being around people, or dealing with people, that use it because they act slow or overly moody, one way or another that can change in an instant.
I don't like the idea of drivers, especially commercial 18-wheeler drivers, using it because it impairs their cognitive function; attention span and the ability to perform complex tasks, like driving a truck weighing 80,000lbs while under the influence. I think commercial truck drivers are actually strictly prohibited from using marijuana, regardless of whether it is legal for recreational or medical use in their home state. I believe there is good reason for that - wonder why!  Marijuana is still prohibited for recreational use in 26 states, and it remains federally illegal in the United States.  Maybe some people feel they need it, but I haven't needed it...  

I hate to agree with such a dweeb on the point that I know some folks (perhaps even several) who seemed to have had screwed up their lives, since they cannot get certain kinds of work based on their lifestyle choices that involves a lot of smoking of marijuana.. ..

"a lot of..." is almost never turning out good.
In fact, when i had the possibility to smoke (what i did back then) all day - i was much younger - it started to get feeling uncomfortable to be slowed, mind-wise, and also a little fatigued, pretty soon.
That changed after i stopped smoking tobacco and switched to vaporizers for weed.
I also like it to decelerate my mind in the evening, or it would mean up-until-4am for me.
Not using it at daytimes. The big excuse is "medical", but everybody who consumes weed says that, right?  

My opinion on the subject is I smoked like a fiend when I was younger but after The Marines when I got high I either got stupid rather than philosophical like I used to or I'd get paranoid so I don't smoke anymore. But I believe everyone has the right to and just because its not my thing anymore doesnt mean it's not good for others as it was for me when younger.


And I have never met a mean pothead in my entire life, NEVER! 

But I have met boatloads of Mean asshole Drunks.

I could tell you a great story about using it for pain relief but I don't have the time to type a JJG post and wouldn't want to bore anyone.

[OutOfMemory]

[edited out]

"a lot of..." is almost never turning out good.
In fact, when i had the possibility to smoke (what i did back then) all day - i was much younger - it started to get feeling uncomfortable to be slowed, mind-wise, and also a little fatigued, pretty soon.
That changed after i stopped smoking tobacco and switched to vaporizers for weed.
I also like it to decelerate my mind in the evening, or it would mean up-until-4am for me.
Not using it at daytimes. The big excuse is "medical", but everybody who consumes weed says that, right?  

It could be good as a way to sleep.  I have met quite a few people who seem to depend upon sleeping pills, and surely sometimes I am tempted to take something so that I can fall asleep right away and then get a sound night's sleep.

Although in recent time, there has been quite a bit of discussion of the way that light exposure might be screwing quite a few of the modern day peeps, likely including yours truly, in regards to our exposure to various electronic devices, screens and even including the kinds of lights that we are using in our houses, workplaces and other places that we are spending our time.

Yeah, i'm aware of the light problem, actually since nearly 20 years.
In the old days, with CRT monitors, it was worse, because they needed brightness and had a high "pixelsize". With Flat Panels, i used to manually lower the brightness to an acceptable level. Even on vacation, when i usually leave the screens at home and willingly leave the phone most time in the trousers, i didn't experience much of a change in falling asleep. When it comes to artificial lights, i only have flicker-free LEDs in the house.

My mother is dependent on sleeping pills and alcohol.
This is also a reason for me to quit the latter and avoid the former.
Weed is fine. No dementia, no pain, no organ damage. And if you spare the tobacco, no withdrawal.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

[edited out]

@cAPSLOCK - If it's allowed by state law, then those people who are attracted to mind-altering chemicals that interact with their brain's central nervous system I guess will want to use it.  That's not for me!

I personally prefer not smelling it because i think it stinks. And, I prefer not being around people, or dealing with people, that use it because they act slow or overly moody, one way or another that can change in an instant.
I don't like the idea of drivers, especially commercial 18-wheeler drivers, using it because it impairs their cognitive function; attention span and the ability to perform complex tasks, like driving a truck weighing 80,000lbs while under the influence. I think commercial truck drivers are actually strictly prohibited from using marijuana, regardless of whether it is legal for recreational or medical use in their home state. I believe there is good reason for that - wonder why!  Marijuana is still prohibited for recreational use in 26 states, and it remains federally illegal in the United States.  Maybe some people feel they need it, but I haven't needed it...  

I hate to agree with such a dweeb on the point that I know some folks (perhaps even several) who seemed to have had screwed up their lives, since they cannot get certain kinds of work based on their lifestyle choices that involves a lot of smoking of marijuana.. ..

"a lot of..." is almost never turning out good.
In fact, when i had the possibility to smoke (what i did back then) all day - i was much younger - it started to get feeling uncomfortable to be slowed, mind-wise, and also a little fatigued, pretty soon.
That changed after i stopped smoking tobacco and switched to vaporizers for weed.
I also like it to decelerate my mind in the evening, or it would mean up-until-4am for me.
Not using it at daytimes. The big excuse is "medical", but everybody who consumes weed says that, right?  

My opinion on the subject is I smoked like a fiend when I was younger but after The Marines when I got high I either got stupid rather than philosophical like I used to or I'd get paranoid so I don't smoke anymore. But I believe everyone has the right to and just because its not my thing anymore doesnt mean it's not good for others as it was for me when younger.


And I have never met a mean pothead in my entire life, NEVER! 

But I have met boatloads of Mean asshole Drunks.

I could tell you a great story about using it for pain relief but I don't have the time to type a JJG post and wouldn't want to bore anyone.

mean pot heads not so much

mean drunks yep.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

[edited out]

@cAPSLOCK - If it's allowed by state law, then those people who are attracted to mind-altering chemicals that interact with their brain's central nervous system I guess will want to use it.  That's not for me!

I personally prefer not smelling it because i think it stinks. And, I prefer not being around people, or dealing with people, that use it because they act slow or overly moody, one way or another that can change in an instant.
I don't like the idea of drivers, especially commercial 18-wheeler drivers, using it because it impairs their cognitive function; attention span and the ability to perform complex tasks, like driving a truck weighing 80,000lbs while under the influence. I think commercial truck drivers are actually strictly prohibited from using marijuana, regardless of whether it is legal for recreational or medical use in their home state. I believe there is good reason for that - wonder why!  Marijuana is still prohibited for recreational use in 26 states, and it remains federally illegal in the United States.  Maybe some people feel they need it, but I haven't needed it...  

My opinion on the subject is I smoked like a fiend when I was younger but after The Marines when I got high I either got stupid rather than philosophical like I used to or I'd get paranoid so I don't smoke anymore. But I believe everyone has the right to and just because its not my thing anymore doesnt mean it's not good for others as it was for me when younger.

And I have never met a mean pothead in my entire life, NEVER!  

But I have met boatloads of Mean asshole Drunks.

I could tell you a great story about using it for pain relief but I don't have the time to type a JJG post and wouldn't want to bore anyone.

@Hueristic - Thank you for your service!  

How do you feel about the likelihood of large number (many millions) of Cubans coming from the island nation to southern Florida if/when Cuba is taken over by the U.S.?  

[Hueristic]

[edited out]

@cAPSLOCK - If it's allowed by state law, then those people who are attracted to mind-altering chemicals that interact with their brain's central nervous system I guess will want to use it.  That's not for me!

I personally prefer not smelling it because i think it stinks. And, I prefer not being around people, or dealing with people, that use it because they act slow or overly moody, one way or another that can change in an instant.
I don't like the idea of drivers, especially commercial 18-wheeler drivers, using it because it impairs their cognitive function; attention span and the ability to perform complex tasks, like driving a truck weighing 80,000lbs while under the influence. I think commercial truck drivers are actually strictly prohibited from using marijuana, regardless of whether it is legal for recreational or medical use in their home state. I believe there is good reason for that - wonder why!  Marijuana is still prohibited for recreational use in 26 states, and it remains federally illegal in the United States.  Maybe some people feel they need it, but I haven't needed it...  

My opinion on the subject is I smoked like a fiend when I was younger but after The Marines when I got high I either got stupid rather than philosophical like I used to or I'd get paranoid so I don't smoke anymore. But I believe everyone has the right to and just because its not my thing anymore doesnt mean it's not good for others as it was for me when younger.

And I have never met a mean pothead in my entire life, NEVER!  

But I have met boatloads of Mean asshole Drunks.

I could tell you a great story about using it for pain relief but I don't have the time to type a JJG post and wouldn't want to bore anyone.

@Hueristic - Thank you for your service!  

How do you feel about the likelihood of large number (many millions) of Cubans coming from the island nation to southern Florida if/when Cuba is taken over by the U.S.?  

[vapourminer]

I could tell you a great story about using it for pain relief but I don't have the time to type a JJG post and wouldn't want to bore anyone.

when you get the chance ill read it

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

[edited out]

@cAPSLOCK - If it's allowed by state law, then those people who are attracted to mind-altering chemicals that interact with their brain's central nervous system I guess will want to use it.  That's not for me!

I personally prefer not smelling it because i think it stinks. And, I prefer not being around people, or dealing with people, that use it because they act slow or overly moody, one way or another that can change in an instant.
I don't like the idea of drivers, especially commercial 18-wheeler drivers, using it because it impairs their cognitive function; attention span and the ability to perform complex tasks, like driving a truck weighing 80,000lbs while under the influence. I think commercial truck drivers are actually strictly prohibited from using marijuana, regardless of whether it is legal for recreational or medical use in their home state. I believe there is good reason for that - wonder why!  Marijuana is still prohibited for recreational use in 26 states, and it remains federally illegal in the United States.  Maybe some people feel they need it, but I haven't needed it...  

My opinion on the subject is I smoked like a fiend when I was younger but after The Marines when I got high I either got stupid rather than philosophical like I used to or I'd get paranoid so I don't smoke anymore. But I believe everyone has the right to and just because its not my thing anymore doesnt mean it's not good for others as it was for me when younger.

And I have never met a mean pothead in my entire life, NEVER!  

But I have met boatloads of Mean asshole Drunks.

I could tell you a great story about using it for pain relief but I don't have the time to type a JJG post and wouldn't want to bore anyone.

@Hueristic - Thank you for your service!  

How do you feel about the likelihood of large number (many millions) of Cubans coming from the island nation to southern Florida if/when Cuba is taken over by the U.S.?  

I guess it's safe to say you'll be welcoming the unprecedented mass migration wave of an additional 7 or 8 million more Cubans to south Florida...

Maybe the Statue of Liberty with The New Colossus bronze plaque should be moved to south Florida!

► https://www.tiktok.com/@user6661080268248/video/7569256057969593631?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Those $40k BTC bears are completely delusional while RSI already lower than Covid/FTX crash. Bitcoin will reach a new ATH this year,  just watch. The catch up will be biblical.


x

I stopper worring at other people.
I have been talking about Bitcoin to my circle of friends for YEARS now.
Some have bought, some others haven't.
Better for us, the price is so low: we can still stack sats.

I have been talking with my friends about Bitcoin for 15 years now. I honestly don’t think any of them are holders. I’ve watched them invest in altcoin scams and blow money on worthless NFTs. I’ve given them BTC and watched them gamble it away. I’ve sent them miners and watched as they let them collect dust. I’m actually beginning to wonder if my efforts are counter-productive. I’d definitely be better off had I never mentioned Bitcoin to anyone. Some get it. Some don’t. Much like the 4-year cycle.

The conversion rate might have to do with yourself or the friends that surround you (which actually also has to do with yourself)

No doubt. I’m super white trash. My friends are far more likely to own guns or chickens than Bitcoin. I am ridiculed constantly in my friend group for owning Bitcoin and driving an electric truck. You might even say that a little good old fashioned ribbing is how my friends and I show each other love.