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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26837444 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
boumalo
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May 10, 2014, 01:53:00 PM

Looks like huobi wants to go down already
Will the bulls show up to save the day?  Grin Grin Grin

They show up but they don't save the day, they just get cheap coins
ChartBuddy
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May 10, 2014, 02:00:53 PM


Explanation
ChrisML
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May 10, 2014, 02:15:57 PM

omg - huobi dropping & nobody even watching

Huobi is being a bitch. We dont like bitches.

"They see us rollin, they hatin"
-Bitstamp 2014.
JorgeStolfi
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May 10, 2014, 02:26:11 PM

Certainly a lot of stakeholders would like to receive their value from GOX in whatever asset that it was held.  So if they had bitcoins in GOX, then they should get bitcoin back.  If they held fiat in GOX, then they should get fiat back... and the ratio of how much they get back would depend upon the total solvency of GOX.
I don't think that any court would find that reasonable.  Even if they viewed bitcoin as currency, rather than property, they would rather convert all assets to the national legal currency at current market rates, then pay the creditors in that currency according to the currency value of their claim.  They would see it as unjustified complication to return debts in different currencies. (Just think of how bitcoin payments would be recorded in the liquidation proceedings.) If an euro is worth 300 yen now, why would a creditor be unhappy to get 300 yen instead of an euro?  If a creditor is due 10'000$ for 100 kg of fish delivered to MtGOX, should the liquidator be obliged to give him back 20 kg of fish instead of 2000$?

But that comment is about another question, that makes a LOT of difference. Suppose that clients X and Y deposited 100 BTC each when the price was 10$, client Z deposited 100 BTC when the price was 1000$, and then client X (only) traded inside MtGOX until he had 300 BTC, and withdrew 100 BTC when the price was 1000$, leaving 200 BTC in the exchange.  Under the "final MtGOX account balance" interpretation, with current price 500$, their claims would be

  X = 200 BTC x 500 = 100'000 $
  Y = 100 BTC x 500 = 50'000 $
  Z = 100 BTC x 500 = 50'000 $

so X would get twice as much refund as Y or Z.  On the other hand, under the US law interpretation as described in that post, their claims would be:

  X = 100 BTC x 10, minus 100 BTC x 1000 = minus 99'000$ = lucky bastard, no claim.
  Y = 100 BTC x 10 = 1000 $
  Z = 100 BTC x 1000 = 100'000 $

so X would get nothing, and Z would get 100 times as much as Y.

So THAT is one big difference between the Sunlot plan and liquidation.

A liquidation would likely get them less than 20% of their holdings; however, a rehabilitation would have the potential of recovering a higher percentage, over time (even though possibly the initial payoff amount may be low with a rehab).
A liquidation would return to the clients some amount X that they can invest any way they like, including in MtGOX 2.0 if they want to.  The Sunlot plan would return them less than X and force them to invest the remainder in MtGOX 2.0, with no option to get out.  I still don't see how this can be better than that.
joehal
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May 10, 2014, 02:33:08 PM

A liquidation would return to the clients some amount X that they can invest any way they like, including in MtGOX 2.0 if they want to.  The Sunlot plan would return them less than X and force them to invest the remainder in MtGOX 2.0, with no option to get out.  I still don't see how this can be better than that.

I'm guessing with the Sunlot plan, the clients have a small chance to get back their entire account. At least in a long time. And that is probably better than getting back only 20% or less (zero according to some here)
akujin
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May 10, 2014, 02:42:45 PM

Looks like huobi wants to go down already
Will the bulls show up to save the day?  Grin Grin Grin

They show up but they don't save the day, they just get cheap coins
But.. but.. but they are the ones keeping the price up  Undecided
 Grin Grin Grin
Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay
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May 10, 2014, 02:59:51 PM

A liquidation would return to the clients some amount X that they can invest any way they like, including in MtGOX 2.0 if they want to.  The Sunlot plan would return them less than X and force them to invest the remainder in MtGOX 2.0, with no option to get out.  I still don't see how this can be better than that.

I'm guessing with the Sunlot plan, the clients have a small chance to get back their entire account. At least in a long time. And that is probably better than getting back only 20% or less (zero according to some here)

The problem is that the court would make this decision for the customers - and apparently few were consulted and truly support Gox 2.0
ChartBuddy
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May 10, 2014, 03:00:54 PM


Explanation
eiskalt
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May 10, 2014, 03:36:49 PM



bullish!!!1

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
JorgeStolfi
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May 10, 2014, 03:40:14 PM

I'm guessing with the Sunlot plan, the clients have a small chance to get back their entire account. At least in a long time.
That is just spin.  They propose to give back (say) 10% of the assets and force clients to invest the other 10% into MtGOX2.0, and will count their share of whatever profit that MtGOX2.0 may make as the payment of the other 90%.  Why is that better than giving clients the full 20%, so that they can invest those same 10% into Apple stock instead?  The clients will surely recover their 90% back much faster this way.
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May 10, 2014, 03:51:05 PM

$BTC rally to 500>700ish imho.....easy !!!  Grin
adamstgBit
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May 10, 2014, 03:57:22 PM

I'm guessing with the Sunlot plan, the clients have a small chance to get back their entire account. At least in a long time.
That is just spin.  They propose to give back (say) 10% of the assets and force clients to invest the other 10% into MtGOX2.0, and will count their share of whatever profit that MtGOX2.0 may make as the payment of the other 90%.  Why is that better than giving clients the full 20%, so that they can invest those same 10% into Apple stock instead?  The clients will surely recover their 90% back much faster this way.
no.

apple isnt about to grow 5x

apple pays out about 1% a year in dividends

so it would probably take like 50-90years.
eiskalt
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May 10, 2014, 03:57:41 PM

That is just spin.  They propose to give back (say) 10% of the assets and force clients to invest the other 10% into MtGOX2.0, and will count their share of whatever profit that MtGOX2.0 may make as the payment of the other 90%.  Why is that better than giving clients the full 20%, so that they can invest those same 10% into Apple stock instead?  The clients will surely recover their 90% back much faster this way.

+1

This hole sunlot/mtgox story/scam reminds me of bitmarket.eu/bitalo.

Scammers kill/hack the exchange and take it over afterwards. They present themselves to the public as heros, rescuers and philanthropists.

Of course they have the cheerleaders ready on forums like this one.

I am only wondering, why all the bitcoin-media is not covering the shady history of this Brock Pierce guy.

ChartBuddy
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May 10, 2014, 04:00:54 PM


Explanation
windjc
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May 10, 2014, 04:14:38 PM

Is this the last time we are going to see 2830 for the next month or more?

Depends from where you're watching that line. Below or above ? =))))
If he's giving a return date, it's most likely a bearish assertion, because a bull would not anticipate the price coming back, ever.

I know who i'm teasing right now. I doubt that a guy who's shorting that much would even think of the scenario of never ever  below 2830.

I was joking. But see how annoying it is when people make statements like that?  You never hear that from bears only from bulls.

That's why people weren't sure what I meant.
Miz4r
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May 10, 2014, 04:24:39 PM

I was joking. But see how annoying it is when people make statements like that?  You never hear that from bears only from bulls.

That's why people weren't sure what I meant.

I don't see what's annoying about that, it can make someone look quite silly though when the market proves them wrong. Also bears do the same thing sometimes, I can distinctly remember someone talking about ''no more triple digits in 2013'' in June last year. Tongue
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May 10, 2014, 04:29:32 PM
Last edit: May 10, 2014, 04:43:53 PM by JorgeStolfi

Why is [ Sunlot's plan ] better than giving clients the full 20%, so that they can invest those same 10% into Apple stock instead?  The clients will surely recover their 90% back much faster this way.
no.

apple isnt about to grow 5x

apple pays out about 1% a year in dividends

so it would probably take like 50-90years.
Well, how much dividend will the MtGOX 2.0 shares pay per year, as percentage of investment?  

There is no way of estimating how much trade they would get.  Why would people trade there rather than at Bitstamp or other exchanges?  Why would people trust their dollars and bitcoins to people who have an even more, er, peculiar past than Mark?

The motivations of the Sunlot team could be all or any of (1) get their hands on those 200'000 BTC with no legally binding commitment to returning them to clients; (2) let Mr. Gay-Bouchery and Mr. Karpelès get away, free and rich; (3) make sure that the assets are distributed according to the (bogus?) balances in Mark's database rather than actual deposits minus withdrawals; (5) pre-empt a police investigation that could find the real culprits for the theft; (5) earn points for the afterlife and a boy-scout medal by helping poor MtGOX clients to recoup a little more of their loss than they would through liquidation.  Have a guess...

EDIT: as for Apple, I don't know currently, but until some years ago they reinvested most of their profits into factories, shops and such; so stockholders got their returns through the increased value of their shares rather than dividends.  Even if  the MtGOX2.0 shares are real equity (rather than the "profit-only shares" of Neo&Bee), the company will have negligible assets of its own, so shares are unlikely to grow in value.
adamstgBit
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May 10, 2014, 04:38:49 PM

Why is [ Sunlot's plan ] better than giving clients the full 20%, so that they can invest those same 10% into Apple stock instead?  The clients will surely recover their 90% back much faster this way.
no.

apple isnt about to grow 5x

apple pays out about 1% a year in dividends

so it would probably take like 50-90years.
Well, how much dividend will the MtGOX 2.0 shares pay per year, as percentage of investment? 

There is no way of estimating how much trade they would get.  Why would people trade there rather than at Bitstamp or other exchanges?  Why would people trust their dollars and bitcoins to people who have an even more, er, peculiar past than Mark?

The motivations of the Sunlot team could be all or any of (1) get their hands on those 200'000 BTC with no legally binding commitment to returning them to clients; (2) let Mr. Gay-Bouchery and Mr. Karpelès get away, free and rich; (3) make sure that the assets are distributed according to the (bogus?) balances in Mark's database rather than actual deposits minus withdrawals; (5) pre-empt a police investigation that could find the real culprits for the theft; (5) earn points for the afterlife and a boy-scout medal by helping poor MtGOX clients to recoup a little more of their loss than they would through liquidation.  Have a guess...



lol idk

I agree they should just get the 20% and be done with it.

but it would seem 'they' would rather take on a high risk investment

buy hey, if they do pull off this deal i'll buy some shares from the victims who just want out.

its not everyday a bitcoin exchange offers shares... i'd take advantage 
rpietila
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May 10, 2014, 04:50:19 PM

Why is [ Sunlot's plan ] better than giving clients the full 20%, so that they can invest those same 10% into Apple stock instead?  The clients will surely recover their 90% back much faster this way.
no.

apple isnt about to grow 5x

apple pays out about 1% a year in dividends

so it would probably take like 50-90years.
Well, how much dividend will the MtGOX 2.0 shares pay per year, as percentage of investment?  

There is no way of estimating how much trade they would get.  Why would people trade there rather than at Bitstamp or other exchanges?  Why would people trust their dollars and bitcoins to people who have an even more, er, peculiar past than Mark?

The motivations of the Sunlot team could be all or any of (1) get their hands on those 200'000 BTC with no legally binding commitment to returning them to clients; (2) let Mr. Gay-Bouchery and Mr. Karpelès get away, free and rich; (3) make sure that the assets are distributed according to the (bogus?) balances in Mark's database rather than actual deposits minus withdrawals; (5) pre-empt a police investigation that could find the real culprits for the theft; (5) earn points for the afterlife and a boy-scout medal by helping poor MtGOX clients to recoup a little more of their loss than they would through liquidation.  Have a guess...

EDIT: as for Apple, I don't know currently, but until some years ago they reinvested most of their profits into factories, shops and such; so stockholders got their returns through the increased value of their shares rather than dividends.  Even if  the MtGOX2.0 shares are real equity (rather than the "profit-only shares" of Neo&Bee), the company will have negligible assets of its own, so shares are unlikely to grow in value.

Very good points.

The idea that 200,000 BTC buy 20% of a startup with no much chance for success is absolutely incredulous. That would put the whole startup's value at 1,000,000 BTC. As a startup entrepreneur myself, I know that a qualified mgmt team is able to value themselves at $5 million at the first round. In this case the mgmt would get 5% of the new exchange and the creditors 95%. Even then I don't know of anyone who would take the deal instead of just taking their bitcoins back (the little that remains).

A criminal investigation must be pursued also. The blockchain will be completely analyzed sooner or later and the thieves will be caught. It is better for everyone that they be caught now.
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May 10, 2014, 04:58:32 PM

The idea that 200,000 BTC buy 20% 16.5% of a startup...

when you put it that way....  Undecided

so no one is going to get gox coins instead they'll get a tiny piece of the new but not improved MtGox that will go under a few months after it reopens



yup!

incase you missed it: http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-settlement-proposal-granted-key-preliminary-approval/
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