Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gizmoh]

Gox customers will be scammed twice if this goes through:

http://www.savegox.com/press/Gox_Creditor_Settlement_Press_Release.pdf

Their PR is answering questions :


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=587295.0

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[JayJuanGee]

I don't claim to be an expert in any of these various economic theories, but there seems to be some sense in what BJA is saying - apart from his having to feel some kind of irresistible urge to dish out insults regarding the competency and/or intelligence of regular people.

I do believe that the status quo wealthy will put up quite a bit of a battle in any redistribution of wealth attempts in order that redistribution of wealth is only minimum..

In other words the status quo wealthy use any tools at their disposal by hook or by crook to ensure that redistribution of wealth does NOT leave them hanging high and dry.  They may NOT be too successful with bitcoin b/c the train may leave some of them, but they are going to put up several obstacles along the way and secretly board at later stops.

I think it is quite possible bordering on probable that I am one of the incompetents I am referring to. It's not intended as an insult. It's just part of the theory.

Part of my issue, though, in your framing in competence and/or intelligence is that it seems to assume too much about the wealthy being competent or smart.  Just b/c someone has a lot of power and/or resources at his/her disposal and wants to engage in a large variety of strategies to maintain the status quo and to preserve that wealth and those resources does NOT mean that the person is smarter or more competent.. even though the one with the resources and wealth may win (in spite of not being smarter or more competent).

[windjc]

Thanks to the Chinese traders, we will all be able to short the market again in and day or so and much a ton of cash.

Unfortunately the pumps keep taking us less and less high up, so coming down is not as much fun.

However, I think these guys got at least one more good one in them.

Maybe we will see 2850 if we are lucky.

[JayJuanGee]

In recent postings, you have become quite intense in your FUD spreading.    

Your above post is filled with many unfounded assumptions.   Coins would have to be sold for much below market rate before there would be an incentive to dump.  I do NOT see whey the GOVT would sell BTC below market rate unless there is some kind of collusion.. .for example selling to some big bank that wants to bring down the BTC market.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=577764.0

The referred to thread does NOT relieve you of your responsibility in your having had spread FUD.

[TERA]

Thanks to the Chinese traders, we will all be able to short the market again in and day or so and much a ton of cash.

Unfortunately the pumps keep taking us less and less high up, so coming down is not as much fun.

However, I think these guys got at least one more good one in them.

Maybe we will see 2850 if we are lucky.

This is like a fractal where we keep hitting a lower low and then going back to 2850. We're on the 4th zoom-out of the fractal now at least. This incarnation should last several days and the termination of this one will be the final one when it hits the major log downtrend and we rocket down.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

[techboy]

What price will bitcoin be at the end of 2014

[JayJuanGee]

Any thoughts on this one? News released today. This could crash the price hard. 385000BTC for $3M USD? what?

http://www.coindesk.com/us-government-sells-silk-road-users-seized-bitcoins-for-3-million/

if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins'

Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins

Bitcoins are fungible, so even if they don't get dumped on the market, other coins that would have otherwise gone to the purchasers of the seized coins will get dumped on the market. Mathematically it is irrelevant if the result is selling pressure or lack of buying pressure. There is a downward price effect on the market either way.

+1 Same goes for 200,000 Gox BTCs to be liquidated.

And US goverment has now more than  500,000 BTC ?!? 30+k from Silk Road, 130+ personal Ullbricht stash plus 385k from this new drug dealer?

This. The amount of seized BTC that has  to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin.

I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's  long term value, seriously scary stuff

In recent postings, you have become quite intense in your FUD spreading.    

Your above post is filled with many unfounded assumptions.   Coins would have to be sold for much below market rate before there would be an incentive to dump.  I do NOT see whey the GOVT would sell BTC below market rate unless there is some kind of collusion.. .for example selling to some big bank that wants to bring down the BTC market.

I don't think that the government cares about or believes in a 'market rate' of bitcoin. The market is a manipulated game that we traders play against eachother and has meaning only to us. It is a very fragile illusion caused by hoarding and could not possibly withstand any signiifcant amount of selling. It would take a year to distribute all the those coins at market rate and doing so might cause a collapse and we're not even sure bitcoin will survive till then without some kind of technical glitch. The government is not a big bitcoin bull like you. The government does not want to speculate. What the government wants is cash, in their pocket, now. So if they can manage to sell all the coins and get a substantial amount of cash via large block trades under market rates offline, then they will do so and that would be great for them - a big success. They want a certainty, and a closed deal. I believe this is how the government operates will all kinds of seized assets, selling them at auctions for ridiculously low prices.

Yes.  I agree with a lot of your logic and mostly that the govt has procedures in place to auction off assets and to get rid of them as quickly as possible. 

This may or may NOT play out in that way with bitcoin, and really do you believe your own words regarding ridiculously low prices with a fairly liquid asset, such as bitcoin?   Yes a $10 million dollar house may end up selling for $1million, but that is b/c the asset may NOT be very liquid.. and even its encumbrances unclear.  Same with a $100k pink cadillac with 24 karate gold rims may sell for less than $10K.... the market value of bitcoin can be traced precisely on the day of the auction, and I doubt they are selling BTC for less than 90% of their retail value.. .. unless they were conducting some kind of secret auction.. which would NOT usually be the case.

The other possibility is that the govt contains various hidden agendas... and has NOTHING to do with my bullish or bearish but instead about perceiving BTC as a threat or a menace.  Those kinds of perceptions by govt actors can cause problematic behaviors and uncertainty about how they are going to proceed, but we are NOT there.. yet regarding each of these various BTC stashes that are in Governmental hands. 

I understand that this last motivation description that i have outlined remains contradictory and ambiguous, and really we do NOT know how various governmental entities feel about BTC.  There is NO one size fits all b/c govt is all over the place regarding BTC.

[rpietila]

What price will bitcoin be at the end of 2014

A larger-and-more-accurate-than-ever way to find out is just starting! Cash prizes!

[JayJuanGee]

Anyone read that Gox is being saved? or am I being trolled

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mt-gox-stakeholders-to-try-reviving-exchange-2014-04-29#

These attempts have been going on for a while.. and I thought that the Japanese Court's ruling to liquidate would sniffle out any additional news or additional attempts to get the liquidation ruling reversed or revisited.  In other words, it seems that the odds are pretty slim that the japanese court would reverse itself or revisit the issue on its liquidation ruling...

[JayJuanGee]

Wasn't the fate of mtgox being overseen by a judge now? When I see that a judge made a ruling, then I'll pay attention.

At a separate hearing before the judge Thursday, they are expected to present their case for that agreement, which in addition to the equity stake includes prorated disbursements out of Tokyo-based Mt. Gox's holdings of 200,000 bitcoins and traditional currency. The terms would apply to all creditors worldwide, though it was signed on behalf of U.S. and Canadian members of the proposed class actions. If the U.S. court approves the plan, the investor group, Sunlot Holdings, would then seek approval of the Japanese court overseeing the bankruptcy.

new fud date besides the China bs, seems farm from concrete. I guess will see if they bring this to the Japanese court.

Saving GOX would be much better for GOX coin stakeholders and better for bitcoin as a whole, rather than liquidation of assets.. which would screw gox coin holders and would set a bad precedent for how defunct and/or corrupt exchanges are treated. 

[Davyd05]

Huobi hasn't decided if the pump is on or not lol

[windjc]

Huobi hasn't decided if the pump is on or not lol

Around a 2k dump on Houbi.

[JorgeStolfi]

Great job Huobites, 2684 CNY as I told you.  Now please STOP TRADING AND GO TO BED. 

[Ultros]

The actual fuck with this volume all of a sudden.

[ShroomsKit]

Pump dump repeat. Bitcoin makes some of the alt coins look good.

[TERA]

A sudden movement in the direction of the dominant trend. I'm shocked.

[Ultros]

[TeeBone]

how do you guys pronounce Huobi ?