Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Erdogan]

[...
] My first reactions when I heard about bitcoin, touted to be the investment that would make everyone a millionnaire, were "if it sounds too good to be true, it surely ain't"
[...]

This is a rule of thumb that is not good for an investor. Following this rule means you can never be in front of something. With this rule, you could not invest in anything mobile or anything internet in the beginning. Not in oil, not in aviation, not in electric cars or whatever. It is a rule to make you a sheep investor.

Investigate. Of course it is not necessary to go deeply into any scammy investment opportunity. Most scam investments are just a carbon copy of something, where someone was able to run away with the money, and it takes you 2 seconds to reveal it.

But if there is something novel, a third party describing it, an intelligent article or some buzz on the newsgroups you follow, and you have the brains to research it, you should find out what it is about, make up your own assessment and take the appropriate action. You can forever invest in guaranteed 1% p.a lossy investments, but what is the point?

[birr]

Well, I'm pretty sure I nearly got ignored by chalkbot, but my monkey is bearish on almost all timescales now.

Many months?

[Chalkbot]

Well, I'm pretty sure I nearly got ignored by chalkbot, but my monkey is bearish on almost all timescales now.

Haha, don't worry aminorex, it's not you. I actually enjoy your posts like, 93% of the time. Sometimes, I don't understand a damn word you said, but I'm still smiling about it, for some reason.

[JorgeStolfi]

The longer I persist in my negative view, the greater will be your fun when I will be finally proved wrong.  

What would take to "finally prove you wrong"? [ ... ]

[Jorge] already explained a hundred times (barely exaggerated at this point) what precisely it would take to conform w/ his definition [ ... widespread no-brainer choice by john-Q-public for international payments ... ]

Yes, that is what would need to happen for me to admit that I was wrong.  But you are authorized to have fun as soon as you are satisfied that I have been proved wrong.  

Without wanting to trigger another 20 posts about my person, let me clarify that my skepticism is due to several reasons, including some political and economic obstacles that, in my estimation, are impassable and cannot be removed by any actions of the bitcoin community.  The estimation depends on probabilities that I assign to certain future developments and reactions, and my understanding of how the world works; opinions, yes, but opinions which I have construed over my lifetime, and will hardly be changed by a few arguments and statements here in this thread.    Obviously most people here have different estimations, and I do not hope to change their opinions either.  Time only will tell who was right.

[Erdogan]

Just replace what you use.

I know you are right but I just can't bring myself to spend any right now.

Replace first, then use, just to be safe.

[godislove]

 You can't stuff 50 pounds of crap in a 10 pound sack.

I can stuff 1,000 pounds of lead in a 1 pound sack of feathers...and keep the feathers inside.

[Erdogan]

The longer I persist in my negative view, the greater will be your fun when I will be finally proved wrong.  

What would take to "finally prove you wrong"? Certain price level over time? Legal skeleton in one of major countries behind BTC? Large company accepting it (like Ebay etc.) ? Really, i'm wondering, what would it take?

 He already explained a hundred times (barely exaggerated at this point) what precisely it would take to conform w/ his definition of 'ok I'm sorry guys you were right in the end - I have to admit bitcoin is now finally successful' ~>

1] Widespread, government-sanctioned (or even promoted) adoption by the public in at least several countries.

2] ^ Due to actual, tangible, John-Q-Public-relevant benefits of using a blockchain-based currency that are OVER and beyond the economical, security, privacy, speed and convenience of use benefits afforded by traditional payment systems & infrastructure..

3] ^ To such an extent that above-referenced general mainstream public now has a NO-BRAINER choice in naturally & easily using a cryptocurrency as payment system.

Is it really that hard to see the writing on the wall though ? really ?

He wants to be the last new user. During the implementation, lots of people will be unsure, and there is a market for contrarian views. He will play the game all the way. When bitcoin is implemented, his services will be ignored. He will one day take a brake from his postings, because noone seems to listen, he will take a walk into the nearby market street, and he will suddenly find out that his visa or mastercard is not good anymore, and he has to beg the merchants to take his ragged reals.

[Erdogan]

Just replace what you use.

I know you are right but I just can't bring myself to spend any right now.

ONE of my obstacles in spending is the potential accounting problem to have to keep track... since it is supposed to be treated as property.

My solution is either to replace as I spend, and therefore say I did NOT claim it as profit b/c I replaced what I had spent... or I can spend it overseas (outside of the USA), which would cause me NOT to have to claim a profit.

Also, I am disinclined to sell now, anyway b/c at this point my portfolio remains in the red with a $613 average BTC price.

The accounting...how can the dominators possibly expect people to do that? Do you see people at large keeping tabs on everything they spend and earn. Private double book-keeping? Assuming bitcoins further progress, not possible.

Just say no.

[Erdogan]

I am currently pessimistic about the chances of the price ever getting much higher than now

I bet you 1 bitcoin that some time during the lifespan of bitcoin the price will rise above the $580 range.  If this does not happen in the next 5 years, I give you a bitcoin.  Sound fair?

Oh and a sell off before July? This consolidation has bear trap written all over it.

This game is frequently resurrected, maybe we nee a name for it. I suggest

The bitcon for high bitcoin value gambler's fallacy.

I am sure an even better name could be found.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[CEG5952]

The USD swap demand at Bitfinex has been extremely high recently.  People want to borrow $5 million or possibly even more.

 I'm not sure if this is real demand, as it occasionally disappears without being fulfilled.  Would people be crazy enough to try and influence the price of bitcoins by posting a fake swap demand wall?  I doubt it.  Also the Bitfinex swaps have been acting very strange with very short spikes in demand - probably due to people trying to influence the swap rate.

People who are already long are paying very high interest rates. They are trying to take out new swaps at lower rates, while keeping positions open. That is my suspicion. It's not new demand for new longs.

[JorgeStoefli]

I´m more and more certain, that the so called "reversal" from 340$ was in fact NOT a real reversal. It looks more and more like a huge bulltrap, i wish i had cashed out and cut my losses when we have been @ 680$. However i think it is NOT too late to sell now. I should have listened to JorgeStolfi and mmitech instead of writing huge amounts of pointless nonsense in the last weeks. I do NOT recommend everybody that he should sell, but in the short and midterm it looks like 680$ or has been the peak for this year.  I will sell half of my stuff now and the other 2 BTC when we eventually reach 600-610$ in the next small bulltrap.

https://thelifeinexile.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/told-ya.jpg

[xyzzy099]

I´m more and more certain, that the so called "reversal" from 340$ was in fact NOT a real reversal. It looks more and more like a huge bulltrap, i wish i had cashed out and cut my losses when we have been @ 680$. However i think it is NOT too late to sell now. I should have listened to JorgeStolfi and mmitech instead of writing huge amounts of pointless nonsense in the last weeks. I do NOT recommend everybody that he should sell, but in the short and midterm it looks like 680$ or has been the peak for this year.  I will sell half of my stuff now and the other 2 BTC when we eventually reach 600-610$ in the next small bulltrap.

You are quoting the fake JJG here I believe.  Bad form Jorge.

[adamstgBit]

I´m more and more certain, that the so called "reversal" from 340$ was in fact NOT a real reversal. It looks more and more like a huge bulltrap, i wish i had cashed out and cut my losses when we have been @ 680$. However i think it is NOT too late to sell now. I should have listened to JorgeStolfi and mmitech instead of writing huge amounts of pointless nonsense in the last weeks. I do NOT recommend everybody that he should sell, but in the short and midterm it looks like 680$ or has been the peak for this year.  I will sell half of my stuff now and the other 2 BTC when we eventually reach 600-610$ in the next small bulltrap.

...

would really appreciate it if you didn't pretend to be other members and quit trolling so hard.

[Erdogan]

The longer I persist in my negative view, the greater will be your fun when I will be finally proved wrong.  

What would take to "finally prove you wrong"? [ ... ]

[Jorge] already explained a hundred times (barely exaggerated at this point) what precisely it would take to conform w/ his definition [ ... widespread no-brainer choice by john-Q-public for international payments ... ]

Yes, that is what would need to happen for me to admit that I was wrong.  But you are authorized to have fun as soon as you are satisfied that I have been proved wrong.  

Without wanting to trigger another 20 posts about my person, let me clarify that my skepticism is due to several reasons, including some political and economic obstacles that, in my estimation, are impassable and cannot be removed by any actions of the bitcoin community.  The estimation depends on probabilities that I assign to certain future developments and reactions, and my understanding of how the world works; opinions, yes, but opinions which I have construed over my lifetime, and will hardly be changed by a few arguments and statements here in this thread.    Obviously most people here have different estimations, and I do not hope to change their opinions either.  Time only will tell who was right.

During the implementation, there will be some number of users, and some greater number of potential users that has not taken the step yet, and some will say "no" (and maybe reconsider years later). Those who say no need negative arguments to reduce their cognitive dissonance. Jorges criteria do not describe the ultimate bitcoin success, so when they are reached, there will still be more outsiders than insiders, and the pressure of opinion will still be largely negative, for those who prefer to count negative or positive expressions of opinion, in stead of just look into it.

tl; dr There is abundance of opportunity to still be negative when the criteria are reached.

[Erdogan]

I´m more and more certain, that the so called "reversal" from 340$ was in fact NOT a real reversal. It looks more and more like a huge bulltrap, i wish i had cashed out and cut my losses when we have been @ 680$. However i think it is NOT too late to sell now. I should have listened to JorgeStolfi and mmitech instead of writing huge amounts of pointless nonsense in the last weeks. I do NOT recommend everybody that he should sell, but in the short and midterm it looks like 680$ or has been the peak for this year.  I will sell half of my stuff now and the other 2 BTC when we eventually reach 600-610$ in the next small bulltrap.

Cute, but it only works so many times.

[esse83]

I should have listened to JorgeStolfi and mmitech instead of writing huge amounts of pointless nonsense in the last weeks.

Coming from a guy with 2 posts.

[Bagatell]

I should have listened to JorgeStolfi and mmitech instead of writing huge amounts of pointless nonsense in the last weeks.

Coming from a guy with 2 posts.

and an alias or two..

[aminorex]

Well, I'm pretty sure I nearly got ignored by chalkbot, but my monkey is bearish on almost all timescales now.

Many months?

On a monthly scale is he as bullish as a really bullish thing -- bullish out 9 to 15 months.  It would take a lot of damage to change that.
He is still bullish on a weekly scale, with a 4 to 16 week horizon.  It would take less damage to change this view.
It's daily and shorter scales where he is all hunkered down and puckered up.