Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

You would have to spend millions and millions of dollars to buy the coins people are selling under $700 to make the price go above 700

Probably not. Once things start moving, people will move their asks. Then there's the panic buyers who will help you out. You just have to make it convincing.

[CEG5952]

Still looking pretty bullish. Bears couldn't push it down even with those big ask walls on Huobi. There's a lot of support here. I'm holding, and considering a small leveraged long.... if I can get swap that isn't outrageous.

[JayJuanGee]

If I were to buy 25,000 coins in one day, like today, on a single exchange (Bitstamp) I'd push the price too high. Bitstamp has sell orders of about 15k BTC up to $1250, for example.

I presume someone could buy 25k if one uses at least 3 exchanges (Bitstamp, daily volume 4000 BTC; Bitfinex, daily volume 4800 BTC; btc-e, daily volume 3000 BTC souirce: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/). If you were to use just 10% of total volume daily (12800 BTC), which means 1280 BTC bought per day, would mean that you need 20 days to accomplish your goal without moving the market that much. And during that time the price could go up up up.

So, I'm asking myself: would the bidders offer $650 per coin? That would be a nice dollar cost average, since you cannot really buy 29k in a batch.

Anyhow, 2 questions:

1. can anyone confirm that the US Marshalls won't sell a batch of 29k BTC to a single bidder, but smaller batches to multiple bidders? I can't really tell from the auction listing.

2. would the auction act like a primer of a panic rally?

Regarding number 1 above: 

I believe that for any single bidder to win all of the 29k+ US Marshalls' coins, then that bidder would have to have 10 bids that are the highest.  I doubt that any single bidder wants all of the coins b/c if any single bidder were that determined to win all the bids s/he would likely have to bid at least 30% above market rate to assure such and even that premium bidding of 30% above market would NOT be assured to receive all of the coins, but s/he would know that anyone winning coins would have to bid higher than him/her.

[samsonn25]

I don't see how any logical bidder would pay even close to 95% of current market value for the coins. Buyers go to auctions to buy things at discount.

[JayJuanGee]

So you traded 150 BTC and you don't own any. You're doing something really really wrong.

I could own 15 BTC right now. That is all I could have ever owned since weeks and actually less than that had I chose to hold in the upper $600s. That is the extent of the fiat whcih I am holding on the exchanges for now. But guess what? I don't want to own any Bitcoins right now. Bitcoins for me is zero sum game much like poker. I jumped onboard just in time to catch the last 40% of the bull-run, made a pile of money, and have since found that trading a corrective bear market is a whole lot trickier than an impulsive bull market. You are talking about the next bubble like it's a foregone conclusion whereas I am looking at a long term support that has been tested far too frequently of late that is currently hovering just $40 below spot.

Yes, like I said, you're doing something very very wrong.

I'll say this only once: Buy the 15 BTC, withdraw them from the exchange, put them in a cold wallet and go do something else for a few years.

Don't bother, we will listen to his ranting in a year or two when he could own 2 .5 BTC with the same money.

MoreFun:  I fixed your above miscalculation.

[gentlemand]

I don't see how any logical bidder would pay even close to 95% of current market value for the coins. Buyers go to auctions to buy things at discount.

Every auction I've ever observed sold its wares for prices ludicrously over their market value. I think the average buyer thinks they're going to get a bargain because it's an auction. If everyone else thinks that then bargains go out the window.

I wouldn't want to make any predictions about this auction though. It's a unique happening.

[samsonn25]

I don't see how any logical bidder would pay even close to 95% of current market value for the coins. Buyers go to auctions to buy things at discount.

Every auction I've ever observed sold its wares for prices ludicrously over their market value. I think the average buyer thinks they're going to get a bargain because it's an auction. If everyone else thinks that then bargains go out the window.

I wouldn't want to make any predictions about this auction though. It's a unique happening.

These are blocks of thousands of bitcoins. The investors are not weekend garage sale hunters on a $50 budget.  They want an edge of 10 20 30% off because they have cash on hand.

[MatTheCat]

He trusts random strangers on the internet, who are operating an unregulated exchange.  WTF.  Crimea river, and call it de Nile.
I lost coins in the Gox insolvency.  You don't see me whinging about it.

Might be obvious to some all the sort of little underhand tricks that go on and perhaps a wiser trader would just consider to be part of the game but I would wager that there are plenty small time traders out there thinking to themselves; "I can read these charts, I can take advantage of the small swings in a consolidating market" only for the fact of the matter to be is that if you get enough little fishes all getting the same 'smart' ideas at once, then whales with access to exchange inside information (or perhaps without) are very adept at pushing the market in the very opposite direction of where the little fishes would otherwise have determined that it went. There is some market analogy about small traders being the plankton that keeps the whales fed or something like that.

People should know that when trading on exchanges such as Bitfinex and from what I have seen of the peculiar and erratic behaviour in their charts (when compared with Stamp), the likes of Huobi and BTC-e are just the same, the odds of success are stacked much more against their favour than they might otherwise believe from simply doing a spot of TA and weighing up how all the indicators look and then making a decision. I know that many seasoned traders take a certain degree of exchange corruption as a given and perhaps going by your comments you might include yourself in that. However, if you lost BTC and/or Fiat on Gox, then I can safely say in all my green naivety, that losing BTC on Gox is something that I would never have done. As soon as the fiat withdrawal issues became clear, I would have been off that exchange in a shot. I know this because I extolled my brother to get his funds away from Gox for weeks before the exchange collapsed, finally succeeding in getting him to take a 8% or so haircut by getting BTC out of Gox and cashing out on Bitstamp.

[aminorex]

As soon as the fiat withdrawal issues became clear, I would have been off that exchange in a shot. I know this because I extolled my brother to get his funds away from Gox for weeks before the exchange collapsed, finally succeeding in getting him to take a 8% or so haircut by getting BTC out of Gox and cashing out on Bitstamp.

Well done, sir.  Me, I bought from bitcoinbuilder, doubled the nominal bitcoin there for a moment in time, and failed to sell in time, came out at a fairly painful loss.  Never actually made a deposit into Gox of any kind, directly.  Still managed to muck that one up.  Lesson learned.  Hopefully the right one.

[Gimmelfarb]

Still looking pretty bullish. Bears couldn't push it down even with those big ask walls on Huobi. There's a lot of support here. I'm holding, and considering a small leveraged long.... if I can get swap that isn't outrageous.

we're coiling, squeezing for a big move for sure. i am leaning bullish, but i'm not gonna lie. little bit nervous. tempted to take a little profit just in case but nahhh, i'd hate to lose any coins at a time like this.

[nioc]

words

Where did your other 1700 posts go and why?

I'm NOT sure what you mean...?

For one thing, I have an imitator, poster, which could also be someone in the thread.. I suppose.. and additionally, you snipped the content of the referenced post, which was from me... and that referenced post shows my current post count as in the 1800s... which seems accurate...

At first I thought you deleted posts because your post count was low.  What I see is that your post count is 140 and never changes.

[roslinpl]

You would have to spend millions and millions of dollars to buy the coins people are selling under $700 to make the price go above 700

Yes indeed this is a method to make it possible, but I will pass this time  

I am sure sooner or later during this summer we will enjoy to sit and watch the rally

[JayJuanGee]

words

Where did your other 1700 posts go and why?

I'm NOT sure what you mean...?

For one thing, I have an imitator, poster, which could also be someone in the thread.. I suppose.. and additionally, you snipped the content of the referenced post, which was from me... and that referenced post shows my current post count as in the 1800s... which seems accurate...

At first I thought you deleted posts because your post count was low.  What I see is that your post count is 140 and never changes.

Unless you have some kind of glitch on your end, my activity level is currently 140 and my current post count is 1851.  Maybe restart you browser... ?  hehehe...     or change the battery on your mouse.. 

[samsonn25]

The price is correct now.  At 660 it was way overbought and the ema was only 540.

Now ema is 605 and still trending up.

[wachtwoord]

I don't see how any logical bidder would pay even close to 95% of current market value for the coins. Buyers go to auctions to buy things at discount.

Every auction I've ever observed sold its wares for prices ludicrously over their market value. I think the average buyer thinks they're going to get a bargain because it's an auction. If everyone else thinks that then bargains go out the window.

I wouldn't want to make any predictions about this auction though. It's a unique happening.

These are blocks of thousands of bitcoins. The investors are not weekend garage sale hunters on a $50 budget.  They want an edge of 10 20 30% off because they have cash on hand.

If you want to buy thousands of Bitcoins paying above spot is still cheap because buying that many coins would result in enormous slippage in our thinly traded Bitcoin markets.

Too bad the auction is blind though.

[zimmah]

The price is fine for now, but i'll be a little worried if the price fail to rise (and stay) above $600 by July 1st.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nioc]

words

Where did your other 1700 posts go and why?

I'm NOT sure what you mean...?

For one thing, I have an imitator, poster, which could also be someone in the thread.. I suppose.. and additionally, you snipped the content of the referenced post, which was from me... and that referenced post shows my current post count as in the 1800s... which seems accurate...

At first I thought you deleted posts because your post count was low.  What I see is that your post count is 140 and never changes.

Unless you have some kind of glitch on your end, my activity level is currently 140 and my current post count is 1851.  Maybe restart you browser... ?  hehehe...     or change the battery on your mouse.. 

I didn't realize that they changed the display to activity from post count.  You can now choose to display post count in addition to activity.

You no longer are "hero"

[birr]

We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough.  You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.