Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

I presume someone could buy 25k if one uses at least 3 exchanges (Bitstamp, daily volume 4000 BTC; Bitfinex, daily volume 4800 BTC; btc-e, daily volume 3000 BTC souirce: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/). If you were to use just 10% of total volume daily (12800 BTC), which means 1280 BTC bought per day, would mean that you need 20 days to accomplish your goal without moving the market that much. And during that time the price could go up up up.

Arbitrage effectively connects all the exchanges into a single global market; with some shifts in the prices, from which the arbitragers make their profit, and a delay of a minute or less.

So by trading on any of those exchanges you are trading on all of them, and also on all the Chinese exchanges.  Together they can easily absorb 1300 BTC per day, I woudl think; but if done repeatedly over 20 days the price will probably move quite a bit.

It seems advisable in general to split a large buy (or sell) into several smaller buys spaced a few minutes apart, so that the arbitragers have a chance to bring the asks or bids) from other exchanges into the one where you are trading.  Trading drectly on  two or more exchanges should only save the arbitrage fees.

[1715346757]

1715346757

[1715346757]

1715346757

[1715346757]

1715346757

[1715346757]

1715346757

[samsonn25]

The price is fine for now, but i'll be a little worried if the price fail to rise (and stay) above $600 by July 1st.

Why it was only $420 last month.  Now is $595 that is a 45% increase.  And last year the price was only $80

[aminorex]

We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough.  You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.

[wachtwoord]

We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough.  You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.

Using you own analysis: why not 100%?

[CEG5952]

The price is fine for now, but i'll be a little worried if the price fail to rise (and stay) above $600 by July 1st.

Why it was only $420 last month.  Now is $595 that is a 45% increase.  And last year the price was only $80

It's a matter of holding the trend. The trend started getting real choppy in the high $600s before breaking down -- preferably, after this rebound, we don't stagnate similarly and break downward once again.

[birr]

We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough.  You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.

Using you own analysis: why not 100%?

I would like to learn how to trade, and this is my way of doing it.  I would like to learn how to trade because the recent bear market taught me the disadvantages of holding. 

[gentlemand]

It's easy to regret staying put a bear market once you've been mired in it for a long time. Trying to trade it is going to be a bit more hair raising.

[Torque]

This is amazing, Stamp never veering from $599.99 for days.  Nope, no manipulation involved at all.  Nope, pure free market, makes perfect sense it should stay that price.

 

[CEG5952]

It's easy to regret staying put a bear market once you've been mired in it for a long time. Trying to trade it is going to be a bit more hair raising.

More difficult to me is trading this type of sideways. The run-up and correction through February were very volatile, and trends were very easy to follow. With all this sideways and choppiness, it's pretty frustrating trying to stay on top of the trend.

[samsonn25]

We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough.  You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.

Using you own analysis: why not 100%?

I would like to learn how to trade, and this is my way of doing it.  I would like to learn how to trade because the recent bear market taught me the disadvantages of holding. 

How is it a bear market?


It is now about $600.

Last month was $400

6 months ago was $200

Last year June was $60

18 months ago was $10

2 years ago was $6

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[anujjain]

This is amazing, Stamp never veering from $599.99 for days.  Nope, no manipulation involved at all.  Nope, pure free market, makes perfect sense it should stay that price.

 

It is weekend, just wait for tommorow, you will see real manipulation, every market has manipulation but all depends how much manipulation going on.

[aminorex]

We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough.  You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.

Using you own analysis: why not 100%?

I am not the OP but I would say 10% is approximately Kelly-optimal given my empirical edge (about 5%).  It gets a little more complicated if you allow for leverage.

[JorgeStolfi]

I did a quick survey of what people are writing about in this forum:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=660592.msg7458812#msg7458812

it would seem that the forum posts are now evenly split betwen Bitcoin and altcoins (~45% each).  Apart from mining, the Bitcoin-related posts are evenly split between Chinese-language posts and non-Chinese (mostly English).

[JorgeStolfi]

It is already 07:20 am Monday in China, but nothing is happening yet in Huobi or OKCoin. Strange.

[birr]

We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough.  You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.

Using you own analysis: why not 100%?

I would like to learn how to trade, and this is my way of doing it.  I would like to learn how to trade because the recent bear market taught me the disadvantages of holding.  

How is it a bear market?


It is now about $600.

Last month was $400

6 months ago was $200

Last year June was $60

18 months ago was $10

2 years ago was $6

Ahem.
My post referred to "the recent bear market."
Like, about five months of down, down, from over $1100 to less than $400.
That is a bear market.

I also said I think we're now in a secular bull market.  On the scale of months.
Is it so unclear, my writing, that the ideas don't come across?

[JorgeStolfi]

There is  a new note on OKcoin announcing new bitcoin services. I cannot make much sense of it, but someone may find it relevant perhaps:

Through Google Translate:

Posted :2014-06-21 00:47:17 - IP:. 114.249 * *.
OKCoin launch leveraged and "raw coins currency union Money"

Dear little friends,

40 days after the closing lever in peer leadership, based on strong industry development trend and requirements of the user, OKCoin made a difficult decision: to launch leveraged and "raw coins coins" financial products.

About "leverage"

Leveraged trading is an integral part of the financial market, financial instruments that establish user-friendly and flexible positions, under the premise of strict risk control, to provide the possibility to achieve greater profits; Users can make use of the borrowed currency leverage to their own judgments increase support.

OKCoin introduced still maintaining the highest leveraged transaction does not exceed three times the original lever, a professional risk management mechanisms to protect the assets of the security of the user. Hong Kong OKCoin (HK) Company Limited provide leveraged lending business and virtual assets in cash, and is responsible for product operations and risk management, OKCoin trading platform provides information dissemination and system support.

On "raw coins coins"

"Health coins coins" financial products in Hong Kong OKCoin Bitcoin users to tailor the latest financial products virtual assets, mainly loans and other invested assets investment for the virtual channels. "Health coins coins" financial products contain "raw coins currency union Money" and "raw coins currency financial accounts," two varieties.

"Health coins currency union financial" products for all Bitcoin users, users only need to deposit coins OKCoin can share product revenue; "raw coins currency financial accounts" product form and "raw coins currency union financial management" similar gains independence accounting, risk. According to laws and regulations, "Health and coins currency financial accounts" products are currently only allowed to have signed a written trust agreement user participation. Hong Kong OKCoin Co. Ltd management and income distribution operators responsible for product, OKCoin trading platform provides subscription channels and system support services.

Product Features

1, A safe and efficient small partners need only OKCoin trading platform can be directly leveraged transactions and financial experience OKCoin always safe and stable professional services.

2, a small partner can choose a variety of options to subscribe for product revenue sharing joint financial products, you can also select "financial accounts"

3, higher income OKCoin maintain a consistent profit to the user's habits, only 20% of the management fees collected from users, resulting 80%.

You read that right! OKCoin of P2P currency financing melting plastic back, we continue to lay coins and other coins raw bar.

[JorgeStolfi]

It is already 07:20 am Monday in China, but nothing is happening yet in Huobi or OKCoin. Strange.

Twas the night before Monday, when all through the market
Not a creature was stirring, not even a ... er ... um ... a parakeet?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Walsoraj]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-22/chinese-speculators-burned-by-bitcoin-turn-to-ipo-market.html

lol.