Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

DFS making good progress on virtual currency regs. Sorry for running slightly behind. Should have proposal out in next week or 2.

https://twitter.com/BenLawsky/status/486962799784914944

Ermahgerd  

Lawsky Bitlicense due "in about two weeks"?

This is a fairly big step in the future of bitcoin. I am optimistic and mildly excited about this milestone.

[Wary]

I get that but why would it suddenly rise? I can see it happen slowly over time but why is there this idea that sometime soon we'll see an explosion? I don't see a reason for it.

Smooth growth is rational, bubble growth is irrational. People tend to be irrational in the face of fear so we're waiting for a fear-generating event perhaps.

Another form of fear is fear to miss the train, aka greed. So some really good news would do as well.

EDIT: typo.

[Patel]

What if Circle, Winklevoss, Barry Silbert's exchange, Atlas, Pantera, Index, Xapo, Buttercoin, itBit all launch at once? Will we see a tsunami bubble?

[BitChick]

What if Circle, Winklevoss, Barry Silbert's exchange, Atlas, Pantera, Index, Xapo, Buttercoin, itBit all launch at once? Will we see a tsunami bubble?

Wasn't there a so called "super bubble"  in 2012?  It could happen again.   

What would the price get to this time $100,000?

We can only dream!

[BitChick]

I get that but why would it suddenly rise? I can see it happen slowly over time but why is there this idea that sometime soon we'll see an explosion? I don't see a reason for it.

Smooth growth is rational, bubble growth is irrational. People tend to be irrational in the face of fear so we're waiting for a fear-generating event perhaps.

Another for of fear is fear to miss the train, aka greed. So some really good news would do as well.

I think the "fear of missing the train" comes when the price starts to move quickly upwards, hence the reason for the bubbles.  All we need is a little push to get it going I believe.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wary]

I get that but why would it suddenly rise? I can see it happen slowly over time but why is there this idea that sometime soon we'll see an explosion? I don't see a reason for it.

Smooth growth is rational, bubble growth is irrational. People tend to be irrational in the face of fear so we're waiting for a fear-generating event perhaps.

Another for of fear is fear to miss the train, aka greed. So some really good news would do as well.

I think the "fear of missing the train" comes when the price starts to move quickly upwards, hence the reason for the bubbles.  All we need is a little push to get it going I believe.

OK, so it can't work as initial push. OK, then let's wait for a bad news 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hyphymikey]

Dear Institutional Investors:

Dat Liquidity    
You can buy 20K BTC average price $675, without pushing the price to $700USD across exchanges.

Sounds like a deal to me!

[empowering]

[minerpumpkin]

Cue the wave down... We'll swing between 625 and 618, it seems. Reminds me of the awful times in the realms of 450. But yeah, if this really is just a calm period, we might be in for the next rise..

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Did you guys notice?
We are (again), at the trendline started at the breakout in january 2013, tested when the silk road closed. Again touched when Mt.Gox went down and recently when the TSR coins were sold.


I personally think we will break out this small triangle (and above the fibonacci retracement at 654 USD) in the next few days:

I think these log trendlines are guaranteed to be broken at some point in the near future (1 week to 1 year).  A new trendline will be established. This happens all the time on a micro scale.

To maintain that trendline, basically btc would have to have a bubble of epic proportions (money influx-wise) and then only have a protracted bear retracement afterwards. I just don't think the log line is sustainable much longer.

+1 My thoughts exactly.

[justusranvier]

Reminds me of the awful times in the realms of 450.

Reminds me of the awful times in the realms of $10.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Raystonn]

It's time to test the strength of our exponential trend line.  We should be above $645 on Bitstamp by this time next week.  If it happens, trend line strength is confirmed and we're on our way up.  If this doesn't happen, bad mojo.

Edit: Meant this time next week, not tomorrow.  That's 7/16 at 5PM Pacific.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

If we don't go up soon i expect some big dumps. For most people there is no point waiting snymore for something that's not gonna happen (in their eyes) They will start selling. This expected rally up is taking too long.

And it is also kinda "too expected".

[Room101]

So much good news, so little movement.

What are the odds that .gov hacked Mt.Gox, and they have half a million BTC to keep suppressing the price. Maybe with a few massive dumps to come to really shake everyone's faith in what is rapidly becoming a very real threat to the dollar hegemony?

This is a country that invaded Iraq when it started talking about selling oil for Euro's, destroyed Gadahfi when he tried to set up the gold backed currency to trade oil in, cuts Iran out of swift for not following the petro dollar.

Note i am not arguing that BTC will replace the dollar. Just that the almighty dollar is being attacted from all sides, and it seems the USA is getting a tad desperate in its attempts to consolidate it. Any threat to the reserve status of the dollar is akin to war for the USA, for it would do far more damage, possibly even destroy the currency as trillions of overseas held dollars flooded back into the states, unleashing a tsunami of inflation.

From a self preservation perspective, I doubt there is much it would not do.

[Raystonn]

Here is a weekly log chart of BTC/USD from https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd.


Weekly MACD is green.  We're bouncing up off the long term exponential trend line.  As long as this line holds, it's a great time to be long.

[Krabby]

We're going to run out of possible good news soon...

[rabsie]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2a9tlw/new_bitcoin_investment_fund_launches_in_jersey/