gizmoh
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Activity: 1428
Merit: 1000
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July 10, 2014, 08:10:22 AM |
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Too much hope, too much bullishness, a hard drop is coming..  Quoting my mentor DanV:
Hi. I think that most who subscribe to Bubble are firstly over emphasising the seeming positive news flow and fundamentals. Based on their assessment, there is never any variation of likely out come but be bullish and that they are still focusing on price action of 2012 and 2013 in which they experience massive moves to the upside after comparable corrections.
What they do not seem to grasp is that those development of part of larger cycle which was in infancy. Now that cycle is maturing they could not have same out come. As the cycle mature the upside moves are generally less impressive and correction can take lot longer than previous instances specially after parabolic move lake in 2013.
Based on my analysis and EW interpretation, I am expecting another big drop to 340 or lower. during which time general bullish sentiments will change to despair before the low is in. So the Bubble story might still reappear but much later than many think. May be towards late 2014 or early 2015 before meaningful low is i and new cycle could develop. |
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"Your bitcoin is secured in a way that is physically impossible for others to access, no matter for what reason, no matter how good the excuse, no matter a majority of miners, no matter what." -- Greg Maxwell
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jeezy
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Activity: 1237
Merit: 1010
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July 10, 2014, 08:11:22 AM |
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here's something to read: http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/the piece details how bitcoin will become mainstream: - "slow bleed" (good money drives out bad, waves of adoption)
- "speculative attack" (on fiat currencies)
- "hyperbitcoinization" (feedback loop between fiat inflation and bitcoin deflation)
made my day  Hehe, that's a good one. |
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dnaleor
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Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
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July 10, 2014, 08:17:41 AM |
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This little dump doesn't effect my current anlysis. We are still right on track:  short term, we see a downwards trending triangle. If we break to the UPSIDE, this will be very bullish and push us above the 654 USD fibonacci retracement:  |
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samsonn25
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July 10, 2014, 08:29:25 AM |
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EMA is dropping. Currently $605
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EuroTrash
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July 10, 2014, 08:41:02 AM |
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Meh. Adding my contribution to the trollbox:
"For now prepare for landing."
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joburgtaxi
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July 10, 2014, 08:46:47 AM |
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They should be careful of that ledge they are standing on, its about to crumble |
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1745
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July 10, 2014, 09:00:26 AM |
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ShroomsKit
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July 10, 2014, 09:15:08 AM |
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This little dump doesn't effect my current anlysis. We are still right on track: short term, we see a downwards trending triangle. If we break to the UPSIDE, this will be very bullish and push us above the 654 USD fibonacci retracement: This is basically all i read here every day for the last 2 weeks. People dumping and not to worry because we will go up. It's starting to look silly. I truly hate to sound like Tera but i have to be realistic. For weeks all we see are people dumping. There is nothing bullish about this. Really nothing. The ask side is getting bigger by the day. I don't care about trend lines and past bubble behaviour. All i see is the current situation and nothing points to Bitcoin going up. Let alone another bubble. |
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JimNastics
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Activity: 26
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July 10, 2014, 09:22:33 AM |
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Bitcoin is fucked until HUGE money comes in, from somewhere. Until then, all we can hope for is that weak hands continued to get shaken out without too much damage. I do think we could be sat twiddling our thumbs well in to next year though :/
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Sandia
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July 10, 2014, 09:24:29 AM |
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We will bubble tomorrow, July 24, September, January or maybe in March. It will happen when the market is ready. Until then buy and hold.
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dnaleor
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Activity: 1470
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July 10, 2014, 09:25:12 AM |
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This little dump doesn't effect my current anlysis. We are still right on track:
(...)
short term, we see a downwards trending triangle. If we break to the UPSIDE, this will be very bullish and push us above the 654 USD fibonacci retracement:
(...) This is basically all i read here every day for the last 2 weeks. People dumping and not to worry because we will go up. It's starting to look silly. I truly hate to sound like Tera but i have to be realistic. For weeks all we see are people dumping. There is nothing bullish about this. Really nothing. The ask side is getting bigger by the day. I don't care about trend lines and past bubble behaviour. All i see is the current situation and nothing points to Bitcoin going up. Let alone another bubble. i'll revisit my position if we go break this triangle to the downside and sell a lot if we go below the next fibonacci retracement at 534 USD. But for now, I think it's just stupid to dump. Good news ahead (ETF, a lot of new companies in the bitcoin space and maybe ebay/paypal accepting bitcoin. I wouldn't be surpised if it happens in Q3!) |
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dakota neat
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July 10, 2014, 09:28:05 AM |
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The reason for the current downtrend are big mining companies constantly cashing out which is quite profitable atm.
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theonewhowaskazu
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July 10, 2014, 09:37:12 AM |
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Why so sad erryone? Weren't we stuck just as bad in the low 500s just a couple weeks back?
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Davyd05
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July 10, 2014, 09:43:38 AM |
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I mean if we go really dump heavy, it's just more incentive for those who have faith to buy.
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JustBetweenUs
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Activity: 290
Merit: 28
bitcoin is not a bubble, it is the pin
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July 10, 2014, 09:57:40 AM |
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I love the sounds of panic.
It is the only time when I know without a doubt that I should be buying.
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1745
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July 10, 2014, 10:00:25 AM |
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theonewhowaskazu
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July 10, 2014, 10:00:48 AM |
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Wow now -1.X% is panic? Gee maybe btc actually is stabilizing if that's the case.
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minerpumpkin
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July 10, 2014, 10:02:05 AM |
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The reason for the current downtrend are big mining companies constantly cashing out which is quite profitable atm.
Yes, seems to be the case. Or some other entities cashing out for whatever reason. It seems that everyone is waiting to go up and yield a higher pricer for their 'planned selling' and since it didn't go up they can't hold back anymore after a certain amount of time has passed, so they're forced to go with the current price. |
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davidgdg
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July 10, 2014, 10:34:49 AM |
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The reason for the current downtrend are big mining companies constantly cashing out which is quite profitable atm.
This doesn't amount to very much. Annual new coins are only about 10% of stock so downwards price pressure from mining sales can't account for more than about 1% per month falls. I think this is just normal market volatility. Up a bit. Down a bit. Up a bit. Down a bit. Who the hell knows why |
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inca
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Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
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July 10, 2014, 10:49:08 AM |
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The reason for the current downtrend are big mining companies constantly cashing out which is quite profitable atm.
This doesn't amount to very much. Annual new coins are only about 10% of stock so downwards price pressure from mining sales can't account for more than about 1% per month falls. I think this is just normal market volatility. Up a bit. Down a bit. Up a bit. Down a bit. Who the hell knows why Just wait till we get an unexpected move back up towards 700. This thread is bipolar, either to the moon!!! or crash crash crash!!! Markets take time to move. Everyone expecting a bubble now was bound to lead to disappointment. The market will probably shake the daytraders around for a few months before we can go upwards again  Good luck to the traders using leverage! |
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