Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gentlemand]

just 3 years ago a $10 rise was = to 300% now its just meh, I used to piss my self with a $5 rise.

All this good news and we're still lower than we were two weeks ago.

The time to get excited is when we cross $660 again.

I will thicken and engorge when 666 is clearly history. That is one tiresome figure.

[keithers]

Dell.com accepting BTC is more good news for us...I think other computer companies will follow in their footsteps

[JorgeStolfi]

Seriously, why does China seem to love positive US bitcoin news better than the US?  

It is kind of strange, its about 2am there atm so they even get out of bed to buy coins, serious dedication.

doesn't Jorge trade in China? 

Yes, that is where I have been doubling my BTC holdings every day since December, remember? 

Seriously, I told you my best guess for the cause of this mini-rally (or mini-bubble, whatever) that started on May 20 from ~450$; namely big Chinese traders buying bitcoin in order to move them to (Hong Kong based) BitVC, even before it opened.

However, the "sawtooth" shape of the plots, and the persistence in the ~610--620$ range, make me think that someone may be trying to keep the price stable, in spite of a general tendency to gradual decline.   Perhaps the Winklevosses and other fund owners, existent or planned, think that keeping the price stable will help convince the SEC to allow the sale of Bitcoin funds to Americans?  (But such manipulation would probably cost a lot of money, and it seems that the upwards "pushes" are led by China...)

[inca]

What I don't get is this. If somebody either day trades or even, God forbid, moves in and out a few times they are castigated on here and told that the gods will skullf--- them by leading to them missing a thousand point jump -- thus, everybody hodls and this behavior is reinforced in the group through negative stimuli and punishing posts. BUT, then you complain about there being no volume. THEN, you wonder why amazing news leads to a five point turn. THEN, you wonder where the bubble is.

You know why there isn't a bubble? Hoarding! It is deflationary... but not only in the way you hope for it to be. So, you want a bubble... grow some balls, make some moves, and don't get irritated at the people making moves. Because you know what, we ought to be at 800 today... the Dell news is extremely positive news for broad scale adoption and news like this, in any other functioning market, projects towards who else would be adopting next. In a nutshell, don't give people grief for facilitating functioning markets. Play your hand, cut the group psychosis s--- because over the past few months it has cost us all a lot of money.

Perhaps that was aimed at me.

No one is castigating day traders. But the bitcoin project is about more then a few % moves over 24 hours. Most of the 'traders' on here don't make any money, they lose it.

Not sure what your point is, you seem to be annoyed that holders continue not to sell. How is that in anyway harmful? Daytraders provide volatility, zero sum noise, and not much more to the market. New money from holders and new bitcoin investors is the only thing which will drive the next bubble. The ground work is being laid right now. Who knows when it happens. I can't speak for anyone else on this thread than myself, but I am entirely indifferent to short term noise in the price, I only care about the trend.

[justusranvier]

I have been doubling my BTC holdings every day since December

Assuming you started with a single Satoshi on January 1st, you must own 8034690221294951377709810461705813012611014968913964.17650688 bitcoins by now.

[Newbie1022]

What I don't get is this. If somebody either day trades or even, God forbid, moves in and out a few times they are castigated on here and told that the gods will skullf--- them by leading to them missing a thousand point jump -- thus, everybody hodls and this behavior is reinforced in the group through negative stimuli and punishing posts. BUT, then you complain about there being no volume. THEN, you wonder why amazing news leads to a five point turn. THEN, you wonder where the bubble is.

You know why there isn't a bubble? Hoarding! It is deflationary... but not only in the way you hope for it to be. So, you want a bubble... grow some balls, make some moves, and don't get irritated at the people making moves. Because you know what, we ought to be at 800 today... the Dell news is extremely positive news for broad scale adoption and news like this, in any other functioning market, projects towards who else would be adopting next. In a nutshell, don't give people grief for facilitating functioning markets. Play your hand, cut the group psychosis s--- because over the past few months it has cost us all a lot of money.

Perhaps that was aimed at me.

No one is castigating day traders. But the bitcoin project is about more then a few % moves over 24 hours. Most of the 'traders' on here don't make any money, they lose it.

Not sure what your point is, you seem to be annoyed that holders continue not to sell. How is that in anyway harmful? Daytraders provide volatility, zero sum noise, and not much more to the market. New money from holders and new bitcoin investors is the only thing which will drive the next bubble. The ground work is being laid right now. Who knows when it happens. I can't speak for anyone else on this thread than myself, but I am entirely indifferent to short term noise in the price, I only care about the trend.

They can hold if they want... just the peer pressure aspect of it I find disconcerting. Also, it is a project towards disrupting fiat currency and thus to have applications in commerce. If it is to have applications in commerce that means it isn't hoarded (at least not totally) because then it never makes its way into commerce. Additionally, there exists a large contingent of hoarders who are expecting the price to rise exponentially and have no deeper affinity to the cause of bitcoin than a john has to a nightwalker -- they're just in it because they think they might get lucky to retire on it... and yet the price does not rise exponentially because there is no upward volatility on good news because these guys are stifling that very volume (almost an unwitting, even more than normal, tragedy of the commons type scenario).

Anyhow, it is what it is... but I really wish people would at least think about the ramifications of the ideas they push a little more.

[molecular]

I have been doubling my BTC holdings every day since December

Assuming you started with a single Satoshi on January 1st, you must own 8034690221294951377709810461705813012611014968913964.17650688 bitcoins by now.

It follows that he owns 0 satoshis

[Newbie1022]

What I don't get is this. If somebody either day trades or even, God forbid, moves in and out a few times they are castigated on here and told that the gods will skullf--- them by leading to them missing a thousand point jump -- thus, everybody hodls and this behavior is reinforced in the group through negative stimuli and punishing posts. BUT, then you complain about there being no volume. THEN, you wonder why amazing news leads to a five point turn. THEN, you wonder where the bubble is.

You know why there isn't a bubble? Hoarding! It is deflationary... but not only in the way you hope for it to be. So, you want a bubble... grow some balls, make some moves, and don't get irritated at the people making moves. Because you know what, we ought to be at 800 today... the Dell news is extremely positive news for broad scale adoption and news like this, in any other functioning market, projects towards who else would be adopting next. In a nutshell, don't give people grief for facilitating functioning markets. Play your hand, cut the group psychosis s--- because over the past few months it has cost us all a lot of money.

Perhaps that was aimed at me.

No one is castigating day traders. But the bitcoin project is about more then a few % moves over 24 hours. Most of the 'traders' on here don't make any money, they lose it.

Not sure what your point is, you seem to be annoyed that holders continue not to sell. How is that in anyway harmful? Daytraders provide volatility, zero sum noise, and not much more to the market. New money from holders and new bitcoin investors is the only thing which will drive the next bubble. The ground work is being laid right now. Who knows when it happens. I can't speak for anyone else on this thread than myself, but I am entirely indifferent to short term noise in the price, I only care about the trend.

Also, I should say that your position is entirely reasonable, but I just disagree that short-term and long-term exist in a vacuum. What's the saying, you can't start a fire without a spark... we've had a lot of news that should have been a spark (the short-term stuff), but what I am concerned about is whether we aren't pour water on the matches.

[Kramerc]

I have been doubling my BTC holdings every day since December

Assuming you started with a single Satoshi on January 1st, you must own 8034690221294951377709810461705813012611014968913964.17650688 bitcoins by now.

He started with exactly 0 satoshi on january 1st. Hence the possibility of doubling them every day. And he is doing it without investing a single cent and/or trade.

The funny thing is that he could've actually had a couple of btc, as people here offered him some btc for free at different times.

[elebit]

Assuming you started with a single Satoshi on January 1st, you must own 8034690221294951377709810461705813012611014968913964.17650688 bitcoins by now.

It follows that he owns 0 satoshis

Also; joke.

[inca]

What I don't get is this. If somebody either day trades or even, God forbid, moves in and out a few times they are castigated on here and told that the gods will skullf--- them by leading to them missing a thousand point jump -- thus, everybody hodls and this behavior is reinforced in the group through negative stimuli and punishing posts. BUT, then you complain about there being no volume. THEN, you wonder why amazing news leads to a five point turn. THEN, you wonder where the bubble is.

You know why there isn't a bubble? Hoarding! It is deflationary... but not only in the way you hope for it to be. So, you want a bubble... grow some balls, make some moves, and don't get irritated at the people making moves. Because you know what, we ought to be at 800 today... the Dell news is extremely positive news for broad scale adoption and news like this, in any other functioning market, projects towards who else would be adopting next. In a nutshell, don't give people grief for facilitating functioning markets. Play your hand, cut the group psychosis s--- because over the past few months it has cost us all a lot of money.

Perhaps that was aimed at me.

No one is castigating day traders. But the bitcoin project is about more then a few % moves over 24 hours. Most of the 'traders' on here don't make any money, they lose it.

Not sure what your point is, you seem to be annoyed that holders continue not to sell. How is that in anyway harmful? Daytraders provide volatility, zero sum noise, and not much more to the market. New money from holders and new bitcoin investors is the only thing which will drive the next bubble. The ground work is being laid right now. Who knows when it happens. I can't speak for anyone else on this thread than myself, but I am entirely indifferent to short term noise in the price, I only care about the trend.

They can hold if they want... just the peer pressure aspect of it I find disconcerting. Also, it is a project towards disrupting fiat currency and thus to have applications in commerce. If it is to have applications in commerce that means it isn't hoarded (at least not totally) because then it never makes its way into commerce. Additionally, there exists a large contingent of hoarders who are expecting the price to rise exponentially and have no deeper affinity to the cause of bitcoin than a john has to a nightwalker -- they're just in it because they think they might get lucky to retire on it... and yet the price does not rise exponentially because there is no upward volatility on good news because these guys are stifling that very volume (almost an unwitting, even more than normal, tragedy of the commons type scenario).

Anyhow, it is what it is... but I really wish people would at least think about the ramifications of the ideas they push a little more.

Interesting points. If bitcoin were all of money then you are probably correct. But I view bitcoin as a digital gold, an (eventually) deflationary digital commodity money which will exist and complement fiat currency, not replace it. I forsee the gold market cap decreasing as bitcoin continues to rise.

Continued merchant adoption is a no brainer for me. Barrier to entry is almost zero for a merchant and the gains are obvious and immediate.

Yes bitcoin is decentralised, cryptographically secure, trustless, but what I think will draw in the common man is far more simple, its scarcity and deflationary characteristics. It is why you and I both hold and buy bitcoin, right? The world is full of lots more you and i's

[Newbie1022]

What I don't get is this. If somebody either day trades or even, God forbid, moves in and out a few times they are castigated on here and told that the gods will skullf--- them by leading to them missing a thousand point jump -- thus, everybody hodls and this behavior is reinforced in the group through negative stimuli and punishing posts. BUT, then you complain about there being no volume. THEN, you wonder why amazing news leads to a five point turn. THEN, you wonder where the bubble is.

You know why there isn't a bubble? Hoarding! It is deflationary... but not only in the way you hope for it to be. So, you want a bubble... grow some balls, make some moves, and don't get irritated at the people making moves. Because you know what, we ought to be at 800 today... the Dell news is extremely positive news for broad scale adoption and news like this, in any other functioning market, projects towards who else would be adopting next. In a nutshell, don't give people grief for facilitating functioning markets. Play your hand, cut the group psychosis s--- because over the past few months it has cost us all a lot of money.

Perhaps that was aimed at me.

No one is castigating day traders. But the bitcoin project is about more then a few % moves over 24 hours. Most of the 'traders' on here don't make any money, they lose it.

Not sure what your point is, you seem to be annoyed that holders continue not to sell. How is that in anyway harmful? Daytraders provide volatility, zero sum noise, and not much more to the market. New money from holders and new bitcoin investors is the only thing which will drive the next bubble. The ground work is being laid right now. Who knows when it happens. I can't speak for anyone else on this thread than myself, but I am entirely indifferent to short term noise in the price, I only care about the trend.

They can hold if they want... just the peer pressure aspect of it I find disconcerting. Also, it is a project towards disrupting fiat currency and thus to have applications in commerce. If it is to have applications in commerce that means it isn't hoarded (at least not totally) because then it never makes its way into commerce. Additionally, there exists a large contingent of hoarders who are expecting the price to rise exponentially and have no deeper affinity to the cause of bitcoin than a john has to a nightwalker -- they're just in it because they think they might get lucky to retire on it... and yet the price does not rise exponentially because there is no upward volatility on good news because these guys are stifling that very volume (almost an unwitting, even more than normal, tragedy of the commons type scenario).

Anyhow, it is what it is... but I really wish people would at least think about the ramifications of the ideas they push a little more.

Interesting points. If bitcoin were all of money then you are probably correct. But I view bitcoin as a digital gold, an (eventually) deflationary digital commodity money which will exist and complement fiat currency, not replace it. I forsee the gold market cap decreasing as bitcoin continues to rise.

Continued merchant adoption is a no brainer for me. Barrier to entry is almost zero for a merchant and the gains are obvious and immediate.

Yes bitcoin is decentralised, cryptographically secure, trustless, but what I think will draw in the common man is far more simple, its scarcity and deflationary characteristics. It is why you and I both hold and buy bitcoin, right? The world is full of lots more you and i's

Fair.

[JorgeStolfi]

I have been doubling my BTC holdings every day since December

Assuming you started with a single Satoshi on January 1st, you must own 8034690221294951377709810461705813012611014968913964.17650688 bitcoins by now.

You are ALMOST correct. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[macsga]

* macsga grants JorgeStolfi the HODLER(TM) title.

Welcome to the club Jorge!  

[dnaleor]

I have been doubling my BTC holdings every day since December

Assuming you started with a single Satoshi on January 1st, you must own 8034690221294951377709810461705813012611014968913964.17650688 bitcoins by now.

You are ALMOST correct.  

maybe he had 1 DOGE on jan 1st?  



EDIT: still right on track:

[David M]

If you would have told me in 2011, 2012 or 2013 that the week DELL announced that it was accepting Bitcoin, would be a "down week", I would have laughed in your face.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360zigWeeklyztgCzbgEza1gWMAzm1g13za2gWMAzm2g52zvzcv

We are 3 bucks under at the moment (last week closed at $630 Bitfinex).

[hdbuck]

If you would have told me in 2011, 2012 or 2013 that the week DELL announced that it was accepting Bitcoin, would be a "down week", I would have laughed in your face.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360zigWeeklyztgCzbgEza1gWMAzm1g13za2gWMAzm2g52zvzcv
We are 3 bucks under at the moment (last week closed at $630 Bitfinex).

this is exactly why we aint going anywhere for a "long" time. market awareness has been raised and it will take much more than some top company in to bring bitcoin up to $2, 3, 4, 10k. imho, some good ol' economical crisis would be a fit tho.

[cbutters]

I have been doubling my BTC holdings every day since December

Assuming you started with a single Satoshi on January 1st, you must own 8034690221294951377709810461705813012611014968913964.17650688 bitcoins by now.

You are ALMOST correct. 

I think the right answer is if he had 1 satoshi on 1/1/2014, and today is 7/18, that is 198 days...

Now you can take 1 satoshi * 2 ^ 197 which equals 2.0086725553237378444274526154265e+59

Now 1 satoshi = 100,000,000 bitcoin..... so divide it by that...

you get 2.0086725553237378444274526154265e+51

In normal number notation thats: 2,008,672,555,323,740,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000


Thanks for the fun thought exercise.

[Davyd05]

I mean we're assuming everyone has fiat waiting on exchange to fire on the announcements of merchant acceptance, which I don't as I've met my hodling goals. My second assumption is that the new bubble will be majorly made of up those who owned no bitcoins.

I was re awoken to the woe of not getting my miner online in 2010-2011 when the silkroad bust came through, after some forum reading I bought coins over a miner and have been happy since.