Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

The regulations are bad news? I have to disgree....

Well, Erik Vorhees did not like them: http://moneyandstate.com/reflections-right-privacy-response-nydfs-bitcoin-proposal/

next time I chat to Erik, we can tease each other about how we have different views.....    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

http://heartbit.io/app

Why list BTC-China and not any of the other Chinese exchanges? 

Huobi (BTC:CNY ~20 kBTC/day currently, got to ~350 kBTC one day) is carried by Bitcoinwisdom

OKCoin (BTC:CNY ~30 kBTC/day) by Bitcoinwisdom and Bitcoincharts.

LakeBTC (BTC:USD ~2kBTC/day) by Bitcoincharts

There may another 2-3 Chinese exchanges that are not reported by either chart site.

AnxHK has several currency pairs in Bitcoincharts ~0.6 kBTC/daily, but this may be the sum for all currencies rather than for each currency.

[abercrombie]

Looks like a lot of the Chinese can get back into the game, and possibly westerners trading in China.

This magnifies potential bubbles again.  

Chinese Exchange OKCoin to Launch USD Deposits and Withdrawals

[edwardspitz]

Getting more geeky with Huobi data.

The list below shows the number of single trades per day for different BTC ranges. The data is based on an average for July 2014 and this is why number_of_trades contains a decimal point.

For example there are 531 trades in the 5-10 BTC range per day on average.

Code:

volume_range    number_of_trades
a) 0 - 0.01     12719
b) 0.01 - 0.1   12500
c) 0.1 - 0.5    16803
d) 0.5 - 1      3706
e) 1 - 5        3450
f) 5 - 10       531
g) 10 - 20      269
h) 20 - 50      81.9
i) 50 - 100     16.7
j) 100 - 200    4.2
k) 200 - 300    0.6
l) 300 - 400    0.17
m) 400 - 500    0.2

Half of all trades on Huobi are 0.1 BTC or below. There has not been any single trades above 500 BTC, but there has been 18 single trades with more than 200 BTC during the first 18 days of July.

The total traded volume at 0.01 BTC or below is 1072 BTC during the 18 days.
The total traded volume at 0.1 BTC or below is 11221 BTC during the 18 days.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

I find this accounting principle kind of funny even though it caused me much frustration. I'm sure this principle will continue to cause headaches and strange workarounds as long as we have anal accountants.  

Well, if you ever have to do some accounting yourself, over ledgers spanning several years of transactions, you would appreciate this principle.

If the totals from two ledgers (say, bank statements and invoices) don't match as they should, even by a few cents, you must check everything all over again because it may be due to some arbitrarily large error on your part (like using the wrong invoice with a similar price), or by someone who was trying to doctor the books. You can waste a lot of time that way.

Or, suppose that you get the monthly report of you bank account for June, and the starting balance is 1.27$ less than the final balance in the May report.

Few joys in life compare to that of having the financial report of one's research project approved by the funding agency's accountants.   Not even that of having the project's funding approved in the first place.  

[aminorex]

The regulations are bad news? I have to disgree....

Well, Erik Vorhees did not like them: http://moneyandstate.com/reflections-right-privacy-response-nydfs-bitcoin-proposal/

And the winklevosses adore them.  Vorhees cares about human freedom and dignity, while the winklevosses care about the value of their bitcoin.  Thus vorhees is disappointed while the winklevosses are encouraged.

[ElectricMucus]

I find this accounting principle kind of funny even though it caused me much frustration. I'm sure this principle will continue to cause headaches and strange workarounds as long as we have anal accountants. 

Well, if you ever have to do some accounting yourself, over ledgers spanning several years of transactions, you would appreciate this principle.

If the totals from two ledgers (say, bank statements and invoices) don't match as they should, even by a few cents, you must check everything all over again because it may be due to some arbitrarily large error on your part (like using the wrong invoice with a similar price), or by someone who was trying to doctor the books. You can waste a lot of time that way.

Or, suppose that you get the monthly report of you bank account for June, and the starting balance is 1.27$ less than the final balance in the May report.

Few joys in life compare to that of having the financial report of one's research project approved by the funding agency's accountants.   Not even that of having the project's funding approved in the first place. 

Ironically yet basically all Bitcoiners in the US doing somthing with their haul should have to make similar efforts in their tax reports. I'll bet none of them are.
Yet again, this weeks coinbase/dell purchases will basically all be affected.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Heartbit.io]

Explanation

heartbit.io/app

[JorgeStolfi]

Getting more geeky with Huobi data.

The list below shows the number of single trades per day for different BTC ranges. The data is based on an average for July 2014 and this is why number_of_trades contains a decimal point.
[ ... ]

Half of all trades on Huobi are 0.1 BTC or below. There has not been any single trades above 500 BTC, but there has been 18 single trades with more than 200 BTC during the first 18 days of July.

The total traded volume at 0.01 BTC or below is 1072 BTC during the 18 days.
The total traded volume at 0.1 BTC or below is 11221 BTC during the 18 days.

Interesting analysis!

It may be interesting also to compare the distribution of trade sizes at other periods in the past, e.g. a couple of days around May/15 (the lull before the 400->600 rally), Feb/19 (a period of steady decrease), Feb/03 (the New Year holiday week), etc.

[byronbb]

Now with Dell on board you have to be really dumb to just keep selling. It's clear there is only 1 way to go and that's up.
Then again i love seeing those idiots lose their money. Nothing better than seeing a 200 dump and the price going up 5 minutes later.

The dumb bears will still be saying merchant acceptance leads to more bitcoin being converted to fiat, which is very very shortsighted

merchants would not convert btc>fiat using public exchanges anyway. + we all seem to look closely to these type of exchanges and their prices but it aint were most of bitcoins are (there is around 2 to 3 millions BTC out of 13million total on public exchanges).

The early acceptor merchants are quite foolish to not be holding until the ETF materializes. There is limited risk that the price of bitcoin will be less than the price at the launch of the ETF, and they could easily hedge right away by going short. As it is now they are selling coins to the very people stomping the price on Bitfinex and Bitstamp.

[Skinnkavaj]

Who would be so stupid to dump now?
What's next after Dell... IBM? Nvidia selling ASIC's?

[JorgeStolfi]

I think I understand JorgeStolfi's attitude towards bitcoin a little better now, after reading this: http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/appcoins-are-snake-oil/
He seems to consider bitcoin : fiat is similar to appcoin : bitcoin.

Well, I am not sure where the similarity is...

I have no opinion on bitcoin as an abstract distributed algorithm.  As a concrete activity/institution, different people want/hope it to be very different things.  I find some of those things laudable, some quite wrong, but all rather unlikely to succeed.

[edwardspitz]

I find this accounting principle kind of funny even though it caused me much frustration. I'm sure this principle will continue to cause headaches and strange workarounds as long as we have anal accountants.  

Well, if you ever have to do some accounting yourself, over ledgers spanning several years of transactions, you would appreciate this principle.

If the totals from two ledgers (say, bank statements and invoices) don't match as they should, even by a few cents, you must check everything all over again because it may be due to some arbitrarily large error on your part (like using the wrong invoice with a similar price), or by someone who was trying to doctor the books. You can waste a lot of time that way.

Or, suppose that you get the monthly report of you bank account for June, and the starting balance is 1.27$ less than the final balance in the May report.

Few joys in life compare to that of having the financial report of one's research project approved by the funding agency's accountants.   Not even that of having the project's funding approved in the first place.  

I have a few friends that work as researchers. They tell me that they spend half their time applying for funds and the other half teaching or going to conferences. Not much time for research

I'm still not convinced that the world of accounting isn't pure evil, but I do appreciate that some people are willing to make it their profession.

[ThomasCrowne]

Who would be so stupid to dump now?
What's next after Dell... IBM? Nvidia selling ASIC's?

NVidia bit-force scrypt-asics wouldn't that be sumpthin?!

[JayJuanGee]

if you have a fully verified coin base account that is. SO GET SPENDING. Even if you pay USD go USD to BTC to buy... it's actually cheaper that way.

How do you send USD to Coinbase/exchange/Bitpay/whatever, and what do they send to Dell -- USD, or BTC?  If USD, how do they send it?

This appears to be one of those basic retarded questions of yours that could easily be answered by yourself, if you were to buy and use bitcoins then you would possibly realize how to use them.  Of course, the customers pay in bitcoin, and then if Dell wants to convert them to fiat after the transaction, they have that fiat conversion option.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

if you have a fully verified coin base account that is. SO GET SPENDING. Even if you pay USD go USD to BTC to buy... it's actually cheaper that way.

How do you send USD to Coinbase/exchange/Bitpay/whatever, and what do they send to Dell -- USD, or BTC?  If USD, how do they send it?

This appears to be one of those basic retarded questions of yours that could easily be answered by yourself, if you were to buy and use bitcoins then you would possibly realize how to use them.  Of course, the customers pay in bitcoin, and then if Dell wants to convert them to fiat after the transaction, they have that fiat conversion option.

And that is the (non)answer that I get whenever I ask that question in this forum. I had to ask the same person three times (on another thread), before he understood the question (and answered it for only one special case).