Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

We've been at this price the last few weeks, something has to give soon!

Agreed. Lowest daily BBW since ages - below 0.06, last time that happened was September 2013 iirc. It'll resolve soon, I'm sure. Not equally sure though in which direction. :/

Where did you get this reading? It's 35 on bitcoincharts.com.

Didn't even know btcwisdom shows bbw. Or you're simply doing [upper bb] - [lower bb]? If so, I suggest to use tradingview, which (to my knowledge) normalizes width to current price, making it comparable across price levels. Otherwise the statement "the lowest in year" would be even more impressive, but also kind of meaningless since with price increase absolute width also increases.

[spooderman]

When's this magical day? 24th of July? I think nothing interesting is going to happen until Sept to be honest.

Yawn.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ssmc2]

FUD of the day!!!

Bitcoin fell by $6!!! Quick! Save yourselves! Sell all your coins!!! 

Man that was close! I got out in time right???

[FUR11]

When's this magical day? 24th of July? I think nothing interesting is going to happen until Sept to be honest.

Yawn.

I don't really know and actually highly doubt that there's a universally accepted magical date set in stone. A lot of people actually believe a decision could be made 'any day now' for a couple of weeks. So where are everybody's charts with long term trend lines and support thresholds?

[N12]

We've been at this price the last few weeks, something has to give soon!

Agreed. Lowest daily BBW since ages - below 0.06, last time that happened was September 2013 iirc. It'll resolve soon, I'm sure. Not equally sure though in which direction. :/

Where did you get this reading? It's 35 on bitcoincharts.com.

Didn't even know btcwisdom shows bbw. Or you're simply doing [upper bb] - [lower bb]? If so, I suggest to use tradingview, which (to my knowledge) normalizes width to current price, making it comparable across price levels. Otherwise the statement "the lowest in year" would be even more impressive, but also kind of meaningless since with price increase absolute width also increases.

This is actually something I've been looking for, which is why I asked. I always had to factor in the prices when looking at bitcoincharts' (bitcoincharts.com, not bitcoinwisdom.com) BBW. Yes, bitcoincharts simply subtracts lower from upper BB.

Thanks for telling me, this is extremely useful.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hdbuck]

We've been at this price the last few weeks, something has to give soon!

Agreed. Lowest daily BBW since ages - below 0.06, last time that happened was September 2013 iirc. It'll resolve soon, I'm sure. Not equally sure though in which direction. :/

Where did you get this reading? It's 35 on bitcoincharts.com.

Didn't even know btcwisdom shows bbw. Or you're simply doing [upper bb] - [lower bb]? If so, I suggest to use tradingview, which (to my knowledge) normalizes width to current price, making it comparable across price levels. Otherwise the statement "the lowest in year" would be even more impressive, but also kind of meaningless since with price increase absolute width also increases.

This is actually something I've been looking for, which is why I asked. I always had to factor in the prices when looking at bitcoincharts' (bitcoincharts.com, not bitcoinwisdom.com) BBW. Yes, bitcoincharts simply subtracts lower from upper BB.

Thanks for telling me, this is extremely useful.

more useful than coindesk's latest article?  
http://www.coindesk.com/trend-spotting-identify-trends-bitcoin-price-charts/

[empowering]

We've been at this price the last few weeks, something has to give soon!

Agreed. Lowest daily BBW since ages - below 0.06, last time that happened was September 2013 iirc. It'll resolve soon, I'm sure. Not equally sure though in which direction. :/

Where did you get this reading? It's 35 on bitcoincharts.com.

Didn't even know btcwisdom shows bbw. Or you're simply doing [upper bb] - [lower bb]? If so, I suggest to use tradingview, which (to my knowledge) normalizes width to current price, making it comparable across price levels. Otherwise the statement "the lowest in year" would be even more impressive, but also kind of meaningless since with price increase absolute width also increases.

This is actually something I've been looking for, which is why I asked. I always had to factor in the prices when looking at bitcoincharts' (bitcoincharts.com, not bitcoinwisdom.com) BBW. Yes, bitcoincharts simply subtracts lower from upper BB.

Thanks for telling me, this is extremely useful.

more useful than coindesk's latest article?  
http://www.coindesk.com/trend-spotting-identify-trends-bitcoin-price-charts/

I (also) like a good old fork (and their trigger lines) personally for trends and reversals/support,resistance

*Andrews pitchforks/schiff/mod schiff

[aminorex]

As far as I am concerned it doesn't matter whether the case for freedom and justice is made by pope or antipope, what matters is that it is made and pressed and pursued with unflagging vigour.  As long as Vorhees is making that case, he is representing me. I should prefer that Lawsky would be making it, but that's not to be, it seems.

[aminorex]

Old man Lawski has the Scooby Gang scared at the moment. Soon they'll discover he's just a Superintendent of a run down old school of thought. His scary monster act only works on the kids playing in the Status Quo club. The new investors are free to move their money anywhere that makes them happy and offers more freedom.

Nice.  Can you do league of justice? "Wonder twins powers...activate!"

[empowering]

As far as I am concerned it doesn't matter whether the case for freedom and justice is made by pope or antipope, what matters is that it is made and pressed and pursued with unflagging vigour.  As long as Vorhees is making that case, he is representing me. I should prefer that Lawsky would be making it, but that's not to be, it seems.

The fight for freedom and justice is distributed and decentralised - any bottlenecks will be bypassed  

[JorgeStolfi]

more useful than coindesk's latest article?  
http://www.coindesk.com/trend-spotting-identify-trends-bitcoin-price-charts/

One of the things that make me skeptic of Technical Analysis (TA) is their general reliance on high and low points to determine trends and such.

Highs and lows are very noisy statistics, that may depend on a single decision by a single trader.  So much so, that even for exchanges that track each other very closely  (like Huobi and OKCoin), trend lines that connect highs or lows may be very different depending on which chart one uses -- even increasing/converging on one chart, while decreasing/diverging in the other.

Basic statistics says that the weighted mean a much more reliable parameter than high, low, open, or close; and a weighted least-squares-fitted line is much better than a line connecting any of those points.  To quantify the size of deviations from the mean or the fitted line, the standard deviation is much better than the high-low difference.

[empowering]

more useful than coindesk's latest article?  
http://www.coindesk.com/trend-spotting-identify-trends-bitcoin-price-charts/

One of the things that make me skeptic of Technical Analysis (TA) is their general reliance on high and low points to determine trends and such.

Highs and lows are very noisy statistics, that may depend on a single decision by a single trader.  So much so, that even for exchanges that track each other very closely  (like Huobi and OKCoin), trend lines that connect highs or lows may be very different depending on which chart one uses -- even increasing/converging on one chart, while decreasing/diverging in the other.

Basic statistics says that the weighted mean a much more reliable parameter than high, low, open, or close; and a weighted least-squares-fitted line is much better than a line connecting any of those points.  To quantify the size of deviations from the mean or the fitted line, the standard deviation is much better than the high-low difference.

Fair point.

That is where experience and judgment come into play, also seeing TA for what it is, a set of indicators to aid judgement calls - it really would not be possible to have a market at all if there was an indicator that was right 100% of the time. Plus there are ways of helping reduce the noise MA's etc

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Erdogan]

626 is 1 12 hr high. Is it the ignition?

[oda.krell]

more useful than coindesk's latest article?  
http://www.coindesk.com/trend-spotting-identify-trends-bitcoin-price-charts/

One of the things that make me skeptic of Technical Analysis (TA) is their general reliance on high and low points to determine trends and such.

Highs and lows are very noisy statistics, that may depend on a single decision by a single trader.  So much so, that even for exchanges that track each other very closely  (like Huobi and OKCoin), trend lines that connect highs or lows may be very different depending on which chart one uses -- even increasing/converging on one chart, while decreasing/diverging in the other.

Basic statistics says that the weighted mean a much more reliable parameter than high, low, open, or close; and a weighted least-squares-fitted line is much better than a line connecting any of those points.  To quantify the size of deviations from the mean or the fitted line, the standard deviation is much better than the high-low difference.

Median (and averages in general) are used in TA, but you are right, a lot of trendlines are largely based on extrema. I disagree however with your claim that the latter are too noisy to be useful: you seem to apply the insight from other fields were a noisy, sparsely populated parameter is best avoided. Two arguments why this insight can't just be applied 1:1 to trading: a) price extrema are the result of trades "eating" through the order book first, i.e. they are the conclusion of a longer, motivated process, not a randomly generated "blip", b) the knowledge what the exact maximum/minimum price some human (or his algo) was willing to trade for is not irrelevant or meaningless at all. I understand that from a purely statistical point of view, your argument makes sense, but taking into account that we are trying to model human behavior, not, say, bacterial growth, not everything can be carried over as straightforward, I believe.

[aminorex]

Highs and lows are very noisy statistics, that may depend on a single decision by a single trader.  So much so, that even for exchanges that track each other very closely  (like Huobi and OKCoin), trend lines that connect highs or lows may be very different depending on which chart one uses -- even increasing/converging on one chart, while decreasing/diverging in the other.

Basic statistics says that the weighted mean a much more reliable parameter than high, low, open, or close; and a weighted least-squares-fitted line is much better than a line connecting any of those points.  To quantify the size of deviations from the mean or the fitted line, the standard deviation is much better than the high-low difference.

Moving averages and z scores are t.a. indicators as well.  You are describing features.  Your job is to find a utile way to combine features to compose control decisions.  Some features are more naively utile.

[edwardspitz]

more useful than coindesk's latest article?  
http://www.coindesk.com/trend-spotting-identify-trends-bitcoin-price-charts/

One of the things that make me skeptic of Technical Analysis (TA) is their general reliance on high and low points to determine trends and such.

Highs and lows are very noisy statistics, that may depend on a single decision by a single trader.  So much so, that even for exchanges that track each other very closely  (like Huobi and OKCoin), trend lines that connect highs or lows may be very different depending on which chart one uses -- even increasing/converging on one chart, while decreasing/diverging in the other.

Basic statistics says that the weighted mean a much more reliable parameter than high, low, open, or close; and a weighted least-squares-fitted line is much better than a line connecting any of those points.  To quantify the size of deviations from the mean or the fitted line, the standard deviation is much better than the high-low difference.

Fair point.

That is where experience and judgment come into play, also seeing TA for what it is, an indicator to aid judgement calls - it really would not be possible to have a market at all if there was an indicator that was right 100% of the time.

Maybe another good reason for you to start trading BTC Jorge I agree with what Empowering says. I don't know much about statistics, but it is useful to consider that the market is moved by two opposite forces (bulls and bears). When price fails to move below a certain point it is because bears have run out of steam. And when price fails to go higher is is because bulls have run out of steam. It doesn't matter if it is a single player who prevents further movement in either direction. All we can say is that price failed to go beyond that point and that is always significant. So maybe it is better to think about the market and TA as forces in physics instead of statistics. If price fails to go further in one direction it will bounce and move in the opposite direction. Like physical objects bouncing off each other when colliding.

It is not enough to consider one exchange alone, but since they all go together you can still use TA from one exchange as a general indicator for market direction.