Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit]

After the GOX collapse, anyone with fiat or Bitcoins on any exchange has balls of steel. Gox did a lot of harm, and it will take time to recover.

This is why we are seeing so little volume in general, no selling and no buying, sorry but no more bubbles until 2015...

I agree. I think the Gox thing scared a lot of people. It could be a perfectly reasonable explanation why people are afraid to buy right now.

[Frapparpeles]

I believe, $610 is now an unbreakable barrier! It can't be broken anymore! Godspeed!

[justusranvier]

I feel there's a certain level of cognitive dissonance rampant on this forum: everyone welcomes the "free market" and "doing exactly what you think is right", but when it applies to BTC price, those who sell early rather than wait for a much higher price level are considered as acting almost anti-social.

We're in the midst of a civil war of sorts, with Bitcoin currently serving as the battleground.

On one side, there are people for whom Bitcoin is a succession movement (from fiat). On the other hand are the people who are working to maintain fiat hegemony.

The two groups have opposing goals, so naturally they don't see eye-to-eye.

[oda.krell]

I feel there's a certain level of cognitive dissonance rampant on this forum: everyone welcomes the "free market" and "doing exactly what you think is right", but when it applies to BTC price, those who sell early rather than wait for a much higher price level are considered as acting almost anti-social.

We're in the midst of a civil war of sorts, with Bitcoin currently serving as the battleground.

On one side, there are people for whom Bitcoin is a succession movement (from fiat). On the other hand are the people who are working to maintain fiat hegemony.

The two groups have opposing goals, so naturally they don't see eye-to-eye.

Agreed. I'd call that the "internal" view, and I actually can respect it. To some degree, social movements, successful social movements probably have to selectively ignore reality to a degree in order to gain traction.

But when I want to make an informed trading decision, I need to take an "external" view, one that doesn't take into account the higher goals of the Bitcoin movement, but only considers the objective reality of the market situation (as in: the likelihoods of certain outcomes). This being the speculation subforum, I sometimes would hope for a bit more tolerance of this type of analysis.

[justusranvier]

But when I want to make an informed trading decision, I need to take an "external" view, one that doesn't take into account the higher goals of the Bitcoin movement, but only considers the objective reality of the market situation (as in: the likelihoods of certain outcomes). This being the speculation subforum, I sometimes would hope for a bit more tolerance of this type of analysis.

Even considering the external view, there are reasonable discussions to be had regarding time preferences and opportunity cost.

Even if everybody accepts the end goal is to finish with the largest pile of Bitcoins, there are different strategies for doing so.

One person might try to sell at local tops and buy back in at local bottoms on a fairly frequent basis.

Another person might do this infrequently, only after large movements, and use their remaining time to accumulate more Bitcoins from other types of activity than trading.

[giveBTCpls]

After the GOX collapse, anyone with fiat or Bitcoins on any exchange has balls of steel. Gox did a lot of harm, and it will take time to recover.

This is why we are seeing so little volume in general, no selling and no buying, sorry but no more bubbles until 2015...

True, but what could possibly happen in 2015 to change this? Are you implying we'll have a trusteable exchange? What constitutes a trusteable exchange? Of course anything is more trusteable than some manchild that used to play Magic the Gathering, but im just saying, what would the ideal scenareo be on there?

[justusranvier]

True, but what could possibly happen in 2015 to change this? Are you implying we'll have a trusteable exchange? What constitutes a trusteable exchange? Of course anything is more trusteable than some manchild that used to play Magic the Gathering, but im just saying, what would the ideal scenareo be on there?

http://opentransactions.org/wiki/index.php?title=Voting_Pools

[ImI]

After the GOX collapse, anyone with fiat or Bitcoins on any exchange has balls of steel. Gox did a lot of harm, and it will take time to recover.

This is why we are seeing so little volume in general, no selling and no buying, sorry but no more bubbles until 2015...

True, but what could possibly happen in 2015 to change this? Are you implying we'll have a trusteable exchange? What constitutes a trusteable exchange? Of course anything is more trusteable than some manchild that used to play Magic the Gathering, but im just saying, what would the ideal scenareo be on there?

Ideal szenario in terms of mainstream-trust? Some big US-stock-broker that starts a bitcoin exchange.

[dreamspark]

After the GOX collapse, anyone with fiat or Bitcoins on any exchange has balls of steel. Gox did a lot of harm, and it will take time to recover.

This is why we are seeing so little volume in general, no selling and no buying, sorry but no more bubbles until 2015...

True, but what could possibly happen in 2015 to change this? Are you implying we'll have a trusteable exchange? What constitutes a trusteable exchange? Of course anything is more trusteable than some manchild that used to play Magic the Gathering, but im just saying, what would the ideal scenareo be on there?

Low volume only bothers day traders though. If people are not keeping their coins on exchanges and are trading less in general then that doesn't bother me. The only thing that matters is how much someone is willing to pay. I dont care if we do 1mm BTC a day in volume or 5k if Im not a trader. Dont worry if/when another bubble happens it will happen regardless and when that time comes there will be no shortage of people flying money and coins into exchanges, but granted during these "down times" the voume is greatly reduced and GOX can be named as a contributing factor.

Lets remember though, counter party risk was among the reasons I first got interested in Bitcoin. The whole be your own bank and dont let the bankers gamble your money away. Therefore it stands to reason that I wouldnt keep coins/fiat on exchanges and it took an event like GOX to remind people of that. It could be argued then, that if you beleive this low volume is due to people not keeping coins on exchanges then this is a positive in regards to people understanding the fundamental principles of Bitcoin.

But as I said, I wouldn't fear as once the train moves for whatever reasons people will quickly forget about the lessons they learnt and will go back to day tarding, staring at the charts hoping for that $10 move so they can close their short and make 0.0001BTC

[JorgeStolfi]

Yes you called the question stupid, and no you did not understand it. If "you pay USD go USD to BTC to buy", as the poster suggested, how do you send USD to Coinbase/exchange/Bitpay/whatever?

I go to Dell's website, and I choose to pay with bitcoins from my blockchain wallet, no?

See why I would rather not buy bitcoin?  Exposure to the stuff ruins one's vision so that even the simplest stupid question becomes utterly incomprehensible, even if repeated in boldface -- if the answer turns out to be inconvenient. 

I send the USD to the exchange in any way it's available to me, preferably with the cheapest one.
It could be one of these: ACH for Coinbase; Plain wire transfer (most of the exchanges)
Or even these: Astropay (Bitstamp); SEPA (Bitstamp, Kraken, and so on); ...

Thank you!  The answer did not have to be that detailed; the important point is that  turning USD into bitcoin requires a bank transfer (BT) of some sort. (Out of curiosity, are there exchanges that accept credit card?).

So, for a domestic internet purchase, the best payment method is as follows:

(1) If you have USD, and the merchant accepts USD, you just send USD to the merchant:
  USD in your bank  >--[BT]--> USD in merchant's bank

(2)  If you have BTC, and the store really accepts BTC, you send them the coins with a blockchain transaction (TX):
  BTC in your wallet >--[TX]--> BTC in merchant's wallet

(3) If you have BTC, and the store accepts only USD, but has a Coinbase (or Bitpay) account, you send the coins through Coinbase:
    BTC in your wallet >--[TX]--> BTC in Coinbase wallet  >--[**]--> USD in Coinbase's bank >--[BT]-->  USD in merchant's bank

(4)  If you have BTC, and the store accepts only USD, and the store does not have a Coinbase/Bitpay account, you must sell the BTC yourself:
   BTC in your wallet >--[TX]--> BTC in Bitstamp's wallet  >--[**]--> USD in Bitstamp's bank >--[BT]--> USD in your bank >--[BT]-->  USD in merchant's bank

(5) Finally, if you have USD, and the store accepts only BTC, you should look for another store.  There is a good chance that the merchant is either a fanatical bitcoiner who believes that ideological purity is more important than profit and client satisfaction, and threfore may go bankrupt before filling your order; or is a scammer who thinks (naively, perhaps) that he has better chances of evading justice by taking your bitcoins instead of your dollars.  (Examples abound of both.)

The ">--[**]-->" in (3) and (4) above stands for "sell the BTC for USD on some exchange".  That is the point when the day traders who buy bitcoins today get to pay the bills of the old bitcoiners who are spending the coins that they bought before November.

By the way, it is not quite correct to say that "Dell gets the bitcoins, and may decide to sell them".  Rather, Dell may opt to receive the entire payment in USD from Coinbase, or to keep some fraction in BTC in their Coinbase account, which they may latter sell or withdraw.  In either case, it is Coinbase, not Dell, that sells the bitcoins that are not kept.

And there is no indication in Dell's website that they intend to keep any of the bitcoins.  On the contrary, there are indications that they leave the handling of bitcoin entirely to Coinbase.  For one thing, if you pay the wrong bitcoin amount, Coinbase will reject the payment and refund you by returning the bitcoins to your Coinbase account; but if you return defective merchandise, Dell will send you the refund in USD, no matter how you paid for it.

For purchasing goods overseas, going through BTC could be an interesting alternative even if you have USD rather than BTC, since it would replace one international bank transfer by two domestic ones plus exchange fees.  However, it seems that Dell and many other merchants do not accept "bitcoin payment" (that is, national money via Coinbase or Bitpay) for overseas purchases; and the higher risk of loss in transport makes credit cards more interesting in that case.  As for paying hotel bills and such whlie traveling overseas, prepaid debit cards still seem to be the cheapest and more convenient option.

So, that would explain why the price does not rise on such "good news": not because of "damn sheep" and "stupid weak hands", but because those news are irrelevant to most people -- except  for Coinbase and BitPay, and for the bitcoiners who wish to unload some old cheap coins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nby]

I send the USD to the exchange in any way it's available to me, preferably with the cheapest one.
It could be one of these: ACH for Coinbase; Plain wire transfer (most of the exchanges)
Or even these: Astropay (Bitstamp); SEPA (Bitstamp, Kraken, and so on); ...

Thank you!  The answer did not have to be that detailed; the important point is that  turning USD into bitcoin requires a bank transfer (BT) of some sort. (Out of curiosity, are there exchanges that accept credit card?).

Well, strictly speaking, actually no, in order to obtain a bitcoin it doesn't require a BT, it's just the exchange part that requires it. Since you asked specifically for it I thought it could be useful to recap some of the available methods. Still, there are other ways to obtain bitcoins that don't involve a BT.

Just to name a few: localbitcoin (peer to peer exchange), ATM (Robocoin/Lamassu), mining (as unfeasible or expensive it may seem, it's still a valid method), donations (remember the "Hi mom, send bitcoin here" sign a few months ago?), or even salary (yes, there are employers who offer this opportunity to their employees).

As per your question, I'm not aware of exchanges accepting credit cards. Too much fraud risk, generally speaking (Oh, the irony).

[...]
So, that would explain why the price does not rise on such "good news": not because of "damn sheep" and "stupid weak hands", but because those news are irrelevant to most people -- except  for Coinbase and BitPay, and for the bitcoiners who wish to unload some old cheap coins.

Questionable assertion. Anyone could benefit from a discount offered in BTC prices at the present time, even while currently possessing 0 BTC.
 
If the company A ("Dell") offers the possibility to either

1) Purchase an item at full USD price or
2) Purchase an item with a x % discount if priced through BTC

I'd say that if the discount is greater than the expenses for the BTC conversion you end up paying a lower price, whether you have "cheap" BTC or not.

[Yololintian]

We went up 3 dollars so people have to take their 20 bucks profit you know.

I was just reading some garbage over on reddit that a self-described "non-professional" market trader with 25 years of experience posted.  It blew his mind at how the people trading this market had no idea what they were doing.  One point in specific, he noticed that people continue to want the price to crash so that they can "buy back in".  That, coupled with the apparent inability for people to let their winners run caused him to speculate that if/when Wall Street level traders do show up, that the "day tradurrz" of BTC right now are going to get chewed the fuck up.

I can't wait.

Wishful thinking. If anything, I believe part of the reason why the current uptrend drags out like it does is because the market is increasingly professionalized: in the absence of a strong "irrational" trend towards a new ATH (i.e. a new fiat floodgate opening and thousand of new investors/speculators/users entering the market), the rational thing to do is take small profits early rather than hope for larger profits later. Why? Because the same incentive exists for the other market participants, so if you're waiting too long for your profit of n%, I'm going to jump in and take a profit of n-1% and will be happy (and you won't make a profit any more at all).

tl;dr tragedy of the commons effect - right now, the individually rational thing to do is take small-ish profits rather than hope for the "big one".

I disagree with the market being a lot more "professional" at this point and I don't think anyone is making much money by taking small profits in this ranging market. This sort of short term low volatility has happened before, when the market was presumably less professional, right? The "strong 'irrational' trends towards a new ATH" do not happen unless a lot of new people (mostly speculators) are introduced into the market. I feel as though the stability we have seen is just the bulls running out of money (see maxed out leverage on bitfinex by crazy people, who have probably lost 10% of their trade money from interest already), but also few are bearish enough to start selling much because this is bitcoin and it will be big in the future.

The thought that the market might be more professional now made me think about something else, though. We all want another bubble to begin and everyone says it will start when the "institutional" money arrives from Wall Street. Well, I don't think professionals are going to participate in a bubble, and they definitely will not keep buying after we go past the ATH because they will realize its way to risky at that point. However, the ETF will allow a lot of regular people to trade bitcoin so that might propel the price beyond at that point.

[byronbb]

Cavirtex with crazy spikes.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[gizmoh]

Cavirtex with crazy spikes.

Show the volume 

[aminorex]

part of the reason why the current uptrend drags out like it does is because the market is increasingly professionalized: in the absence of ... (i.e. a new fiat floodgate...), the rational thing to do is take small profits early rather than hope for larger profits later.

That dynamic is providing energy to coil the spring for the next leap.  It works until it doesn't work.  The scalpers pick up the nickels, while the hodlers ride the steamroller.  The scalpers end up 50% in on average, or less if they short.  When the game shifts, that's a lot of capacity that needs to be filled suddenly in order to tag along for the upthrust.  We've seen this switch flip a few times since the GBL (Gox bankruptcy low).  One day it will stick in the On position, and money will flow until the circuit breakers blow.

[aminorex]

Volume on down days is getting smaller while volume on up days is getting bigger, relatively speaking, on average.

[Tzupy]

3d MACD divergence turned red on all exchanges, for the first time since May.

[JayJuanGee]

Yes you called the question stupid, and no you did not understand it. If "you pay USD go USD to BTC to buy", as the poster suggested, how do you send USD to Coinbase/exchange/Bitpay/whatever?

I go to Dell's website, and I choose to pay with bitcoins from my blockchain wallet, no?

See why I would rather not buy bitcoin?  Exposure to the stuff ruins one's vision so that even the simplest stupid question becomes utterly incomprehensible, even if repeated in boldface -- if the answer turns out to be inconvenient. 

Yes, Jorge.  Most of us here realize that you are a troll, and that is why you frequently ask such stupid questions and make such unimportant comments.

There is NOTHING inconvenient about the answer to your question, except that you should be able to figure it out yourself if you were more involved in buying and selling bitcoins.  Instead, you claim to have NOT purchased any through any service.

There are a variety of ways to acquire bitcoins by wiring money or by handing cash to someone or by mining or by earning them through a service or sales of a product.  Once you have the bitcoin(s), then you can use them to acquire Dell products or services (Dell chooses whether or NOT it wants to convert back to fiat and/or when to convert back to fiat, if it is going to convert).