Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[beetcoin]

while Bitcoin is not moving anywhere, the best way to make profits is to start looking at alts, and I dont mean the pumps and dumps coins.... I started doing this the last couple of days...

how can you really distinguish what is a pump and dump though? any new altcoin that is being released is probably pre-mined a good deal.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

Amusement

Fib retracement of ATH (MtGox)  

0%         1,242
23.6%    949.124
38.2%    767.938
50%    621.5
61.8%    475.062
76.4%    293.876
100%     1

Slap bang

Also just for fun.
extensions
261.8%    4,493.556
200%    3,726
161.8%    3,251.556
138.2%    2,958.444
100%    2,484
61.8%    2,009.556

Can you enlighten my chromosomal rich gnome and let me laugh too?
In other words, can you explain the numbers?

Hi I am merely amused that we are slap bang in the middle of the move from 1-1242 and sticky at a moment of seeming indecision and at a time when the market is consolidating/trading sideways - literally slap bang in the middle of the 1-1242 "move" - and so I thought I would check out the fib levels- which is more why I added them (the 50% fib is not overly important) or did you want me to rant about golden ratio and fibonancci/explain how I got the rest of the numbers? I happen to be rather fond of fibs and the golden ratio so happy to do so.

Edit The other reason it is an amusement is that I do not think using fib retracements retracing this whole move from 1 is that useful per se (perhaphs only if there is a fractalised beautiful sacred geometry occuring within BTC (or is that a sacred geometry within us as natural beings of the universe that is important here?? hmm then again as a creation of humans BTC is essentially human too... which would make it a product of nature... so maybe...  )  and of course in the case others humans and non humans using the same retracement calcs to trade from-  in this case I do not think it is overly useful to describe 1 as the origin of the move up to 1242, as I am not sure it was a "move" at all in the early days... I tend to disregard the first few years when looking at the charts for TA - and start from $5 upwards, and even then....  although with longer term outlooks, starting from 1- 5 - 10 as in terms of BTC , for me it is just to give me a visualisation of the action.

I started out from the 621.5 figure.. and was curious to see if 621 had any "signifigance" as we had been sticking around it , when I played with the numbers I noticed that it was 50% of 1242 which I recalled was the prevoius ath for MT GOx an I thought I wonder what thr erest of the retracement figures show... and so I posted them ohhhhhhhhhhmmmmm and I have taken an housr ago a rarher powerful sleepngpill as I have to
go away and clappse now early flight . ..woo whoo it has really hskicked in and I can not see sriaght or where the keys are on th laptop
yeah a n I cannot tpe so nigt

keep btc safe for evrone ha ha this is hilarious........might try work like this everyday meh g

[ShroomsKit]

How nice that yet another day was all about IdiotStolfi. The sociopath must have the time of his life thanks to you guys.
When will you people realize he is only here to get attention. He wants his name quoted as much as possible. That's why psycho's like him use their real name.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

How nice that yet another day was all about IdiotStolfi. The sociopath must have the time of his life thanks to you guys.

Well maybe chime in more with your views and thoughts charts and analysis and discussions observations , memes and general blah blahand chit chat - tis everyone forum - just do your own thing fella... pllenty of other peple to chat to..  have to go noe I am out of my face hs ha

[hdbuck]

How nice that yet another day was all about IdiotStolfi. The sociopath must have the time of his life thanks to you guys.

Well maybe chime in more with your views and thoughts charts and analysis and discussions observations , memes and general blah blahand chit chat - tis everyone forum - just do your own thing fella... pllenty of other peple to chat to..  have to go noe I am out of my face hs ha

yea its boring here, take it easy. consider it as some sort of prevention for any newcomers coming along and buying it all. ^^

...
ohhhhhhhhhhmmmmm and I have taken an housr ago a rarher powerful sleepngpill as I have to
go away and clappse now early flight . ..woo whoo it has really hskicked in and I can not see sriaght or where the keys are on th laptop
yeah a n I cannot tpe so nigt

keep btc safe for evrone ha ha this is hilarious........might try work like this everyday meh g

gnight!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

mexican standoff at crypto-corral.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHQr0HCIN2w&list=PLQU9l-C-EYVbjqvolQzVg2vyQlivVbzH_

[mooncake]

697BTC buy wall at 622.71 on Stamp.

[fallinglantern]

697BTC buy wall at 622.71 on Stamp.

Interesting. Let's see if it gets eaten.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DhaniBoy]

boring sideways
bitcoin price not going anywhere for this week
was good news from dell accepted bitcoin not help to raise the price?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

If you like your price, you can keep your price.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Searing]

Nice!!!!!!!

We moved up $3.00!!!!


 

whoo who...

well with no or little volume..everyone hoarding btc including whales on anticipated next rally....and only a certain speed of newbies or adaptation
in the real world to encourage demand or crazy btc'er's like us to further buy/mine and hold and crank the cycle around to the next level

it likely is gonna be a big 'yawn' for a few more months imho

seems we have hit a bottleneck and thy name is "bitcoin acceptance/expansion" of course it is hard to do with all the press/and claims of FUD
and every day the prediction of BTC's ultimate failure in order to sell papers or make $$$ for your network etc

yet BTC still chugs along (just not at the speed I'd like)

guess it makes sense it is universal among the 10 people that I told last fall and now they asked so I told them how I'm doing this year with BTC
they still think it is a big ponzi scheme scam and I should cash out....they cling to the belief it is a 'bubble' 'scam' because to admit otherwise
means they missed the boat when I told them about BTC last fall....that is an unacceptable deflation of ego if BTC fails would be an ego  boost.
cause they 'called it' as a scam....so denial has kicked in imho...so I will shut up about it till they ask another 1/2 year from now on my BTC hobby
(poor deluded fool that I am in their view) maybe if BTC is over 1K by then I can get them to admit it 'might' not be a scam...

man I hate these negative BTC headwinds by the powers that be/press/media etc

anyway BTC is still  plugging along ..but we may sit imho at between 550 usd and 650 usd for quite a while maybe as long as Oct 2014 before
enough acceptance/expansion happens...to make the price stabilize at a higher level again just in a poor mood this week with above...so take
this with a grain of salt..

what do I know just my pessimistic view over getting beat up on bitcoin by the above family/friends/co-workers etc that I tried to tell about it
last fall.....the consensus in my small world/group has not changed..in fact it seems more hostile...again if I'm right they all missed the boat

somehow I am pretty sure if BTC hits 2k it is all gonna be my fault I did not convince the people above to get some BTC last year or this week

so it goes I guess

Searing

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

The listing of COIN will be a liquidity event like no other in BTC history.  The most extreme bubble in BTC history is the 53x ramp from April to June of 2011.  It would be unreasonable not to consider that the impact of COIN might exceed that event, therefore.  A 60x ramp would achieve that by a significant margin, without breaking new territory.  

Let's suppose that there is a 50% chance of COIN being listed, and an 90% chance of a multi-month topping formation to ensue, and a 10% chance of that formation, conditional upon its formation, breaking a new scale record.  I consider all of these estimates to be low-ball.  The resulting contribution to the aggregate value of a bitcoin in Q1 2015, over all scenarios, is 920; a 25 bp/diem return means that if all other scenarios were flat zeros, even so your expection is net 9 bp/diem positive carry against current BFX margin rates.  

If the stopping time of a 13% margin call at 620 is less that sqrt((920-620)*9/25) ~ 10 times the duration of the scenario (I take at 160 days), then there is a net negative expectation.  I will spare you the stopping time calculation (a bunch of stochastic integration very ill-suited to a forum post).  It is much less.  In other words, I consider provable given a few reasonable and not very limiting scenario assumptions (although not here proven even conditionally) the (perhaps obvious) conclusion that even the most eggregiously optimistic scenario cannot justify the risk of full margined carry, unless you can get substantially better rates (or higher leverage limits) elsewhere.

Holding, on the other hand, is a no-brainer.  

Intermediate leverage falls between, and I have yet to calculate the optimum, which depends on better scenario coverage for its confidence margins.  It really requires a numerical approximation to do it on a principled basis with reasonable margins, at my level of understanding.  I couldn't expect to produce a closed form for the general case in the time one could allow to do a doctoral dissertation, so it's just not practical for me to try.

TL;DR: HODL

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation