Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Bronstad]

Can anyone make a case that the price will not be at least twice this level within 90 days after COIN lists?

If not, let's assume it is so.  If there is a 50% chance of listing by November 8th, and the best estimator of the February 8th price without COIN is the current price, then the expected gain by 8 Feb is 50%.

That's roughly 100% annually.  It is a very very low estimate of the expectation of holding.  It may underestimate holding time however.

If you know anyone who can do without some non-zero amount of cash today, with the expectation of a 50% gain by 8 Feb, you should inform them, or you are no friend.

In other words, I'm done accumulating BTC for a while.  (Still working on XMR though.)

I think my brain might be a bit fuzzy today. But why does your last sentence read like you spent the previous sentences explaining why you think the price is going down? If you think the price is going up, why be done accumulating?

[jeezy]

I really think we this is "the calm before the storm"




65 USD ~ 340 USD
85 USD ~ 450 USD
100 USD ~ 545 USD
115 USD ~ 550 USD
135 USD ~680 USD

I'm really skeptical regarding these recurring trends. The situation is completely different, but we have seen in the past that even big world or bitcoin news don't seem to move the price that much. So maybe it will repeat like you suggest, maybe it will be flat till new year. Well, I guess I'm still waiting for the Indians to wake up and go crazy on BTC 

[DjPxH]

I'm really skeptical regarding these recurring trends. The situation is completely different, but we have seen in the past that even big world or bitcoin news don't seem to move the price that much. So maybe it will repeat like you suggest, maybe it will be flat till new year. Well, I guess I'm still waiting for the Indians to wake up and go crazy on BTC 

Okay, umm but what's so different? We actually had less positive news last year, it seems. In fact, we just had the silk road seizure back then.

[empowering]

Snowball

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dnaleor]

Can anyone make a case that the price will not be at least twice this level within 90 days after COIN lists?

If not, let's assume it is so.  If there is a 50% chance of listing by November 8th, and the best estimator of the February 8th price without COIN is the current price, then the expected gain by 8 Feb is 50%.

That's roughly 100% annually.  It is a very very low estimate of the expectation of holding.  It may underestimate holding time however.

If you know anyone who can do without some non-zero amount of cash today, with the expectation of a 50% gain by 8 Feb, you should inform them, or you are no friend.

In other words, I'm done accumulating BTC for a while.  (Still working on XMR though.)

i'm done accumulating too
(and also working on XMR )

I told all my friends to get in at 70 level previous summer. Also told them to get in at 400-500 (and told they about the Bitcoin ETF)
They had their chance, I don't want to nag

[jeezy]

I'm really skeptical regarding these recurring trends. The situation is completely different, but we have seen in the past that even big world or bitcoin news don't seem to move the price that much. So maybe it will repeat like you suggest, maybe it will be flat till new year. Well, I guess I'm still waiting for the Indians to wake up and go crazy on BTC 

Okay, umm but what's so different? We actually had less positive news last year, it seems. In fact, we just had the silk road seizure back then.

There is no positive or negative, there is just movement. Every news can bear or bull. If that is "good" or "bad" for you is a whole other story.

[empowering]

Could this get any less volatile? nope... but it soon will do methinks     Nearly at an all time low... similar to before past rallies

 I wonder what this next spike in volatility is going to bring... last few rallies had three mini spikes in volatility during bear runs,  before going to near ATL in volatility , and then .....massive spike.  Hopefully we get a massive rally too



 

[Dotto]

Bids on Stamp look healthy. 1000 BTC to 620$ ; 3000 BTC to 610$. Ready to lift off. We also have a very similar fractal compared with the 430$ breakout.


TO THE MOON

is this a Fonzie I see before me?

You are the only one here not ignoring fonzie  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[diebuntekuh]

Bids on Stamp look healthy. 1000 BTC to 620$ ; 3000 BTC to 610$. Ready to lift off. We also have a very similar fractal compared with the 430$ breakout.


TO THE MOON

is this a Fonzie I see before me?

You are the only one here not ignoring fonzie  

Whenever fonzie shows up it's a good time to buy

[sickpig]

Can anyone make a case that the price will not be at least twice this level within 90 days after COIN lists?

So for you it's just a matter of "when".... I'm glad.

[greenlion]

Can anyone make a case that the price will not be at least twice this level within 90 days after COIN lists?

So for you it's just a matter of "when".... I'm glad.

Objectively speaking, once an ETF is available as a public investment vehicle, anyone who does not at least have exposure as a small percentage of a tax-deferred retirement portfolio is completely out of their mind. That alone is a monstrous amont of capital, total US retirement assets are on the order of $20 trillion. Capturing just one tenth of one percent of that would be about $20 billion slamming right into the float.

[birr]

I've always found staggering credibility in your posts.

Perhaps in this case my staggering credibility derived from copping to the fact that I'm too lazy/dumb to do the proper maths.  And from the fact that I am staggering just a bit.

stagger |ˈstagər| verb
1 walk or move unsteadily, as if about to fall:
2 astonish or deeply shock: (as adj. staggering)

The question is: did he mean definition 1 or 2?

In any case, I agree that it is difficult to overstate the potential impact of COIN.  

Difficult, yes.  But you guys are doing a bang-up job.  Of hyperventilating.
The effective New York ban on bitcoin (which they call "bitlicense" or "regulation")
will have a much profounder long-term impact than COIN.

[empowering]

just going to pop this here :  http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/07/22/uk-argentina-debt-negotiation-analysis-idUKKBN0FR16M20140722

[QuestionAuthority]

It looks like the stable value of Bitcoin is between $600-$630? How long has it held in this range now?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

It looks like the stable value of Bitcoin is between $600-$630? How long has it held in this range now?

It has not gone below 600 in past 22 days- it has flipped a few times over 630 by varying amounts

Something happened around 22 days ago.....

[QuestionAuthority]

It looks like the stable value of Bitcoin is between $600-$630? How long has it held in this range now?

It has not gone below 600 in past 22 days- it has flipped a few times over 630 by varying amounts

Something happened around 22 days ago.....

That's pretty good stability for Bitcoin. This is what's needed for adoption. Gradual small moves I mean.

[empowering]

It looks like the stable value of Bitcoin is between $600-$630? How long has it held in this range now?

It has not gone below 600 in past 22 days- it has flipped a few times over 630 by varying amounts

Something happened around 22 days ago.....

That's pretty good stability for Bitcoin. This is what's needed for adoption. Gradual small moves I mean.

Indeed, though I do think the market cap/trade volume needs to increase for there to be the greater liquidity needed to keep the volatility
down once and for all- I do not think we are there yet by a long chalk - which is pleasing in a way   - and so I expect plenty more volatility for quite a few years to come yet.  I do not think we are going to have to wait too long for the next round of volatility either tbh.