Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Bids on Stamp look healthy. 1000 BTC to 620$ ; 3000 BTC to 610$. Ready to lift off. We also have a very similar fractal compared with the 430$ breakout.


TO THE MOON

is this a Fonzie I see before me?

It´s even worse. I used snakesoil sale tactics to lure in 3 friends of mine to invest altogether 45k$ into the BTC scheme in the the last 2 weeks.
I´m bullish as fuck( and of course ALL IN)!!!    

Oh shit, Fonzie is a bull, BTC prices must be going down!!!!!

[keewee]

Bids on Stamp look healthy. 1000 BTC to 620$ ; 3000 BTC to 610$. Ready to lift off. We also have a very similar fractal compared with the 430$ breakout.


TO THE MOON

is this a Fonzie I see before me?

It´s even worse. I used snakesoil sale tactics to lure in 3 friends of mine to invest altogether 45k$ into the BTC scheme in the the last 2 weeks.
I´m bullish as fuck( and of course ALL IN)!!!    

Oh shit, Fonzie is a bull, BTC prices must be going down!!!!!

This is only the second time I remember this happening. I'm pretty sure the last time he was bullish the price dropped and he said he'd never do it again 

[molecular]

interesting survey being conducted (high sample size, already more than 2000 participants).

example of a result:


(click link for all results)

it seems 2014 is not a good year at all regarding adoption (only 1% heard about bitcoin in 2014).

suprising the price doesn't slide more with ~ $2 million dollars worth of coins being mined each day (and probably quite a large part of them hitting the exchanges)

thoughts?

[empowering]

interesting survey being conducted (high sample size, already more than 2000 participants).

example of a result:


(click link for all results)

it seems 2014 is not a good year at all regarding adoption (only 1% heard about bitcoin in 2014).

suprising the price doesn't slide more with ~ $2 million dollars worth of coins being mined each day (and probably quite a large part of them hitting the exchanges)

thoughts?

I would say this is bs..  if it were a survey of people from the Bitcointalk.org then maybe.... but from the general public... I cannot see it...
99% of all media coverage has been in the past past 9 months edited: two years , and especially the past nine months  I would like to know who/where/how the sample group was picked...also any idea who is conducting and publishing this (anon?) survey.

[jmw74]

interesting survey being conducted (high sample size, already more than 2000 participants).

example of a result:


(click link for all results)

it seems 2014 is not a good year at all regarding adoption (only 1% heard about bitcoin in 2014).

suprising the price doesn't slide more with ~ $2 million dollars worth of coins being mined each day (and probably quite a large part of them hitting the exchanges)

thoughts?

Where would this survey reach people who'd just heard about bitcoin?  Likely not on this forum or reddit.

Also there hasn't been a lot of mainstream media news about bitcoin this year.

[aminorex]

I have around $400k in tax deferred index fund accounts (stock market, bonds and govt bonds), and it would be possible for me to make a one-time withdrawal of part or all of those funds, without any tax penalty - though it would likely be a taxable event, unless the funds are rolled into another tax-deferred vehicle. 

You need to put your crypto into a Roth vehicle.  All gains tax-free.  IRA or 401k.  I keep mine off-shore because the IRA structure shields the fund from foreign financial account reporting requirements.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jmw74]

99% of all media coverage has been in the past 9 months.

What are you smoking?

The major media has barely touched bitcoin all year.  I don't think mtgox's collapse was even close to as big a story as the price increase last April and November.  There was probably more coverage with Silk Road in 2011 than mtgox.

The only time the media tends to mention it is when the price is already skyrocketing.  Hasn't happened this year.

[molecular]

interesting survey being conducted (high sample size, already more than 2000 participants).

example of a result:


(click link for all results)

it seems 2014 is not a good year at all regarding adoption (only 1% heard about bitcoin in 2014).

suprising the price doesn't slide more with ~ $2 million dollars worth of coins being mined each day (and probably quite a large part of them hitting the exchanges)

thoughts?

I would say this is bs..  if it is a survey of people from the Bitcointalk.org then maybe.... but from the general public... I cannot see it...
99% of all media coverage has been in the past 9 months.

It's not from general public. 92% are r/bitcoin readers and 37% have a bitcointalk account.

EDIT: click image for the other results

[hdbuck]

interesting survey being conducted (high sample size, already more than 2000 participants).

example of a result:


(click link for all results)

it seems 2014 is not a good year at all regarding adoption (only 1% heard about bitcoin in 2014).

suprising the price doesn't slide more with ~ $2 million dollars worth of coins being mined each day (and probably quite a large part of them hitting the exchanges)

thoughts?

I would say this is bs..  if it is a survey of people from the Bitcointalk.org then maybe.... but from the general public... I cannot see it...
99% of all media coverage has been in the past 9 months.

It's not from general public. 92% are r/bitcoin readers and 37% have a bitcointalk account.

EDIT: click image for the other results

hearing about bitcoin doesnt necessarily implies you have "adopted" it.
nowaday, i'd guess far more people have heard about bitcoin (thx to the intense media coverage lately) but didnt take the leap.
patience patience, we need some macro-stormage to make people switch

[JayJuanGee]

Maybe I'm going to look back in one year from now (or even 6 months)

I really like this chart. 

I think that the chart depicts historical aspects of BTC prices that constitutes, more or less, a more than 8X increase per year over the almost 4 year period; however, most of that growth occurred in 2011 - accordingly, the growth seems to be skewed towards 2011.  In this regard, there seem to exist decreasing intensities in the magnitude of each of the BTC bubbles, and maybe the increased BTC prices have made difficulties in having continued bubbles of 8x or greater? 

NONETHELESS, if another major bubble of 8x or more were to occur, then these previous price increases will merely be part of the description of an ongoing pattern.   

Personally, I am torn about what to believe, yet I am somewhat skeptical that continued bubbles of 8x or more is sustainable, even though I do believe that it is possible to have a few more 8x or greater bubbles in the coming years.

The chart above shows both bursts and drops, and the price bursts occurred:

early 2011  = 5x

mid 2011 = 41x

late 2011 = 3x

2012 = 3x

early 2013 = 18x

late 2013 = 9x


So far 2014, has been mostly downward, with a bit of gradual upward momentum in the last two months; however, it seems that we are still waiting to see what is going to happen in the remainder of 2014 in order to characterize BTC prices for this year and to prognosticate the direction of BTC. 

Surely, it does seem possible that BTC prices will remain more or less flat for the remainder of 2014; however, given the intensity of continued ongoing good news, various multimillion dollar investments into BTC, the appearance that several wall-street interests are looking into BTC investments, government regulations that are tolerable towards ongoing BTC growth, efforts to establish more user-friendly applications, greater BTC adoption and awareness and continued opportunities for liquidity, it is seeming less and less probable that BTC prices can be kept down for the remainder of 2014, absent some catastrophic negative BTC event.  Also, it seems that if BTC prices go past $850 or so in the next 6 months, then inevitably, BTC prices are going to spurt into a new ATH, in the range of $2,500 to $5,000. 

[empowering]

99% of all media coverage has been in the past 9 months.

What are you smoking?

The major media has barely touched bitcoin all year.  I don't think mtgox's collapse was even close to as big a story as the price increase last April and November.  There was probably more coverage with Silk Road in 2011 than mtgox.

The only time the media tends to mention it is when the price is already skyrocketing.  Hasn't happened this year.

Really I saw a few big stories pre 2012, as "mild interest pieces" the past 1 year , 2 years it has been on pretty much every major news network/media outlet in the world once or twice a month (even more so past 9 months imo- it is everywhere) (original post now edited)

Also I realise not the same thing (based on "searches") but  http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Bitcoin  Dare say it is more informative than a 2000 "random" sample

(ps I am smoking the goodshit)

[sickpig]

Can anyone make a case that the price will not be at least twice this level within 90 days after COIN lists?

So for you it's just a matter of "when".... I'm glad.

Objectively speaking, once an ETF is available as a public investment vehicle, anyone who does not at least have exposure as a small percentage of a tax-deferred retirement portfolio is completely out of their mind. That alone is a monstrous amont of capital, total US retirement assets are on the order of $20 trillion. Capturing just one tenth of one percent of that would be about $20 billion slamming right into the float.

I do agree with both of you, once the Wii will need to buy btcs on the market to back their ETF surely the influx of money will be significant. I'm just not as sure as you're that COINS will happen soon if ever.

I think that the probability is pretty high but not equal to 1.

[molecular]

Maybe I'm going to look back in one year from now (or even 6 months)

I really like this chart.  

I think that the chart depicts historical aspects of BTC prices that constitutes, more or less, a more than 8X increase per year over the almost 4 year period; however, most of that growth occurred in 2011 - accordingly, the growth seems to be skewed towards 2011.  In this regard, there seem to exist decreasing intensities in the magnitude of each of the BTC bubbles, and maybe the increased BTC prices have made difficulties in having continued bubbles of 8x or greater?  

NONETHELESS, if another major bubble of 8x or more were to occur, then these previous price increases will merely be part of the description of an ongoing pattern.  

Personally, I am torn about what to believe, yet I am somewhat skeptical that continued bubbles of 8x or more is sustainable, even though I do believe that it is possible to have a few more 8x or greater bubbles in the coming years.

The chart above shows both bursts and drops, and the price bursts occurred:

early 2011  = 5x

mid 2011 = 41x

late 2011 = 3x

2012 = 3x

early 2013 = 18x

late 2013 = 9x


So far 2014, has been mostly downward, with a bit of gradual upward momentum in the last two months; however, it seems that we are still waiting to see what is going to happen in the remainder of 2014 in order to characterize BTC prices for this year and to prognosticate the direction of BTC.  

Surely, it does seem possible that BTC prices will remain more or less flat for the remainder of 2014; however, given the intensity of continued ongoing good news, various multimillion dollar investments into BTC, the appearance that several wall-street interests are looking into BTC investments, government regulations that are tolerable towards ongoing BTC growth, efforts to establish more user-friendly applications, greater BTC adoption and awareness and continued opportunities for liquidity, it is seeming less and less probable that BTC prices can be kept down for the remainder of 2014, absent some catastrophic negative BTC event.  Also, it seems that if BTC prices go past $850 or so in the next 6 months, then inevitably, BTC prices are going to spurt into a new ATH, in the range of $2,500 to $5,000.  

who wouldn't like that chart... it seems to imply more hype cycle iterations.

good observation on decreasing magnitude. If you look only at the major ones (41x, 18x, 9x), one could extrapolate that the next one might only reach 4.5x (if we put the start at $800, it would peak at $3,400)

[empowering]

interesting survey being conducted (high sample size, already more than 2000 participants).

example of a result:


(click link for all results)

it seems 2014 is not a good year at all regarding adoption (only 1% heard about bitcoin in 2014).

suprising the price doesn't slide more with ~ $2 million dollars worth of coins being mined each day (and probably quite a large part of them hitting the exchanges)

thoughts?

I would say this is bs..  if it is a survey of people from the Bitcointalk.org then maybe.... but from the general public... I cannot see it...
99% of all media coverage has been in the past 9 months. edited: two years , and especially the past nine months

It's not from general public. 92% are r/bitcoin readers and 37% have a bitcointalk account.

EDIT: click image for the other results

Hi- yeah I clicked and read- so that makes more sense to me- people that are reddit and forum users, are more likely to have heard of BTC longer ago- I think that forum users are quite a specific group of people, and it makes sense to me that they would also be the kinds of people that would be more likely to hear about Bitcoin first,  in the same way that I think that a lot of people that know about and understand about BTC have had exposure to other forms of trading (espcially some of the PM trading fraternity) i.e people that are more likely to have read literature that would have informed them about BTC (tech or trading crowd)  compared to the people I expect to be the next wave of adopters, who will get their news not from forums (and will likely never use a forum- not a huge % of the population does imo) and not from trading or tech related newses (where is proudhon?)  but from the mainstream media... and from companies like Dell accepting BTC etc

[keithers]

The high and low range has continued to get tighter and tighter.   I think it is only a $5-6 spread across most of the major exchanges.   In our world, this can only last for so long...

[hyphymikey]

ALMOST DONE

[JayJuanGee]

interesting survey being conducted (high sample size, already more than 2000 participants).

example of a result:


(click link for all results)

it seems 2014 is not a good year at all regarding adoption (only 1% heard about bitcoin in 2014).

suprising the price doesn't slide more with ~ $2 million dollars worth of coins being mined each day (and probably quite a large part of them hitting the exchanges)

thoughts?

Where would this survey reach people who'd just heard about bitcoin?  Likely not on this forum or reddit.

Also there hasn't been a lot of mainstream media news about bitcoin this year.

This survey has a lot of real good questions, besides the highlighted question.

I agree that the survey is NOT very likely to be representative of general public views, but instead, largely, the views of people who are already invested and knowledgeable about bitcoin. 

The results of such a poll would likely be considerably different, if they were able to poll the general public, and many from the general public would probably say, "bitcoin?  what the fuck is that?"   

[impulse]

Objectively speaking, once an ETF is available as a public investment vehicle, anyone who does not at least have exposure as a small percentage of a tax-deferred retirement portfolio is completely out of their mind. That alone is a monstrous amont of capital, total US retirement assets are on the order of $20 trillion. Capturing just one tenth of one percent of that would be about $20 billion slamming right into the float.

If 20 billion were to slam into the market you would need to buy about 32 million bitcoins to satisfy the demand at current prices, which is of course impossible. Even if half of all bitcoins in existence were to turn over to new owners they would have to sell for an AVERAGE of $3000 per coin, which means of course that the peak price would be considerably higher. And that's only if half of the whole supply were up for grabs.

[JayJuanGee]

I have around $400k in tax deferred index fund accounts (stock market, bonds and govt bonds), and it would be possible for me to make a one-time withdrawal of part or all of those funds, without any tax penalty - though it would likely be a taxable event, unless the funds are rolled into another tax-deferred vehicle. 

You need to put your crypto into a Roth vehicle.  All gains tax-free.  IRA or 401k.  I keep mine off-shore because the IRA structure shields the fund from foreign financial account reporting requirements.

I thought that the annual limits were extremely low regarding these tax exempt vehicles, unless maybe they are being rolled over from one tax free vehicle to another?  Probably, I should research into this further, and try to figure out the best way to accomplish my goals.

I was also considering international traveling with my BTC stash, and accordingly, I understood that there was a loophole in the USA treatment of gains that are cashed out overseas.