empowering
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Activity: 1092
Merit: 1442
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July 22, 2014, 07:45:18 PM |
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The high and low range has continued to get tighter and tighter. I think it is only a $5-6 spread across most of the major exchanges. In our world, this can only last for so long...
x 1000 Agreed- surely not long at all. |
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ChartBuddy
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Merit: 2364
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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July 22, 2014, 08:00:10 PM |
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JorgeStolfi
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July 22, 2014, 08:23:04 PM |
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The eventual approval of the COIN fund is obviously likely to increase the price. However, the magnitude of the increase does not seem so easy to predict. Some complicating factors:
(1) I expect that, at first, the fund will buy the bitcoins that it needs from the Winklevosses and other investors like Tim Draper (and the eventual DPR coins auction). That is presumably why the Winklevosses are after that fund. So the demand on the exchanges is likely to be indirect, from people who expect the price to rise because of the ETF, rather than from buys by the ETF itself.
(2) Granted that SMBIT and PBP are less glamourous than COIN, but they do not seem to have had much success, or much effect on the price. SMBIT holdings have grown only 2000 BTC, from ~105 BTC to ~107 BTC, over the last two months. They grew ~30 kBTC from December to April, but the price dropped almost 50% in that period.
(3) Bitcoin's only intrinsic value is its utility as a method of payment. Its value as an investment depends entirely on that utility. Bitcoin is a high-risk invstment because no one can tell what the demand for that use will be, and there is a positive probability that such demand (and therefore its value) will go to zero at some point. Approval of the ETF will not affect the expected demand for that use, nor that probability of failure. Therfore COIN shares will be just as risky an investment as bitcoin itself. If large institutional investors do not trust bitcoin now, why would they trust COIN?
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beetcoin
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July 22, 2014, 08:31:28 PM |
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Objectively speaking, once an ETF is available as a public investment vehicle, anyone who does not at least have exposure as a small percentage of a tax-deferred retirement portfolio is completely out of their mind. That alone is a monstrous amont of capital, total US retirement assets are on the order of $20 trillion. Capturing just one tenth of one percent of that would be about $20 billion slamming right into the float.
If 20 billion were to slam into the market you would need to buy about 32 million bitcoins to satisfy the demand at current prices, which is of course impossible. Even if half of all bitcoins in existence were to turn over to new owners they would have to sell for an AVERAGE of $3000 per coin, which means of course that the peak price would be considerably higher. And that's only if half of the whole supply were up for grabs. i don't think your math is correct. you are not scaling the price of bitcoins as demand rises. you can't just say "if you have 20 billion dollars and buy all the bitcoins, you'd need 32 million of them." because as you by more bitcoins, the higher the price will be. |
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Adrian-x
Legendary
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Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
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July 22, 2014, 08:35:09 PM |
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The eventual approval of the COIN fund is obviously likely to increase the price. However, the magnitude of the increase does not seem so easy to predict. Some complicating factors:
(1) I expect that, at first, the fund will buy the bitcoins that it needs from the Winklevosses and other investors like Tim Draper (and the eventual DPR coins auction). That is presumably why the Winklevosses are after that fund. So the demand on the exchanges is likely to be indirect, from people who expect the price to rise because of the ETF, rather than from buys by the ETF itself.
(2) Granted that SMBIT and PBP are less glamourous than COIN, but they do not seem to have had much success, or much effect on the price. SMBIT holdings have grown only 2000 BTC, from ~105 BTC to ~107 BTC, over the last two months. They grew ~30 kBTC from December to April, but the price dropped almost 50% in that period.
(3) Bitcoin's only intrinsic value is its utility as a method of payment. Its value as an investment depends entirely on that utility. Bitcoin is a high-risk invstment because no one can tell what the demand for that use will be, and there is a positive probability that such demand (and therefore its value) will go to zero at some point. Approval of the ETF will not affect the expected demand for that use, nor that probability of failure. Therfore COIN shares will be just as risky an investment as bitcoin itself. If large institutional investors do not trust bitcoin now, why would they trust COIN?
Because socialism breads sociopaths. experiment-shows-people-exposed-to-socialism-cheat-more |
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Hfertig
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July 22, 2014, 08:47:31 PM |
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Bears are idiots. It is clear we broke the downtrend - you cannot just redraw a a downtrend line to match today's price  Wow, you sir are the perfect example why old time bitcoiners don´t want to contribute to this forum anymore. There is someone who spends time and efforts to contribute to this forum and all you have to say is that bears are idiots ? Instead of "thank you for your analysis, but I got a different view because of...." you call this person an idiot ? Actually not only this person, but all bears ? Looking through your posts, I was not able to find any contribution from your side which was a bit valuable. In my view, you are the idiot here. Just because you have only seen Bitcoin in a three digit range, you believe there will be no other ? I would not be too sure of that. There could be a big disappointment. I believe in Charts to some extend, and believe the guy has done a reasonable job. Can he predict the future ? Certainly not, we all don´t know where Bitcoin is going. There is more than just drawing lines. I am a bear in this situation, but instead of calling all the bulls idiots, I will try to back it up with some reasonable points. 1. The Chartanalysis above...... 2. Dell news. This is major news !!! I agree on that and should drive the price to... wherever. BUT, there is a good old saying: buy the rumour, sell the news. A lot of people knew about it before it was published and took their positions. That is the reason why the Bitcoin price has not moved since the news were published. They are now taking profits and the sheep buying on the news are paying for it. The conclusion in this case, the market is saturated. No more reasonable positive performance for quite a while. 3. Bitfinex Credit Bubble. 30 million USD on loan ? at a price of USD 600 this makes at least 50.000 bitcoins which need to be sold at some stage. There will be no CCMF before this problem is off the table. look at current volumes. This is more than 10 days of Bitstamp volume.... 4. Bitcoin auction. Till today, no one knows about the price and people are estimating sky high numbers. An auction price around USD 600 would at this point a very profitable trade worthwhile to realise some profits. But it certainly caps bitcoin performance. 5. Further Bitcoin auctions. What should I say... more Bitcoin to come to the market 6. Adoption. People are very bullish about retailers adopting bitcoin. For me that is bearish news. There are people with thousands of BTC who just don´t want to pay tax. Just buying their luxury goods with bitcoins is what they are waiting for a long time. Selling them for USD, EUR or whatever would mean they would need to pay taxes. Just buying goods is a nice tax evasion scheme. 7. Wall Street will enter... yawn. I know hedgefunds which are playing bitcoin since 2012. If they do something, they are selling 8. Bitcoin is a new technology. Bitcoin is as old as the IPhone 3.... You just heard about it too late and believe you found something new.... I personally would not spend 600 USD on a bitcoin. I believe that it is highly overvalued at this price and everyone paying this amount of money is out of his mind. I still have enough to make a good living, but I will rather sell some than buy... |
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JorgeStolfi
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July 22, 2014, 08:48:34 PM |
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Ha! Try using any ultra-capitalist third-world country instead of East Germany, and you will reach the opposite conclusion... |
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beetcoin
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July 22, 2014, 08:49:45 PM |
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Ha! Try using any ultra-capitalist third-world country instead of East Germany, and you will reach the opposite conclusion... yeah, you could say the same thing about capitalism.. socialism is not great, but people act like it's the devil and capitalism is perfect. |
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wachtwoord
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Activity: 2380
Merit: 1142
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July 22, 2014, 08:53:37 PM |
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interesting survey being conducted (high sample size, already more than 2000 participants). example of a result:  (click link for all results) it seems 2014 is not a good year at all regarding adoption (only 1% heard about bitcoin in 2014). suprising the price doesn't slide more with ~ $2 million dollars worth of coins being mined each day (and probably quite a large part of them hitting the exchanges) thoughts? I doubt this poll is reliable at all. Look at the amount of people with 2008 and 2009 (2008 impossible, 2009 less than a dozen people worldwide). |
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Adrian-x
Legendary
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Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
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July 22, 2014, 08:56:11 PM |
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Ha! Try using any ultra-capitalist third-world country instead of East Germany, and you will reach the opposite conclusion... Those third world examples are typical of las faire tyrannies, it boils down to just laws and freedom both slipping away fast in the west. |
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windjc
Legendary
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
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July 22, 2014, 08:57:41 PM |
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Bears are idiots. It is clear we broke the downtrend - you cannot just redraw a a downtrend line to match today's price Wow, you sir are the perfect example why old time bitcoiners don´t want to contribute to this forum anymore. There is someone who spends time and efforts to contribute to this forum and all you have to say is that bears are idiots ? Instead of "thank you for your analysis, but I got a different view because of...." you call this person an idiot ? Actually not only this person, but all bears ? Looking through your posts, I was not able to find any contribution from your side which was a bit valuable. In my view, you are the idiot here. Just because you have only seen Bitcoin in a three digit range, you believe there will be no other ? I would not be too sure of that. There could be a big disappointment. I believe in Charts to some extend, and believe the guy has done a reasonable job. Can he predict the future ? Certainly not, we all don´t know where Bitcoin is going. There is more than just drawing lines. I am a bear in this situation, but instead of calling all the bulls idiots, I will try to back it up with some reasonable points. 1. The Chartanalysis above...... 2. Dell news. This is major news !!! I agree on that and should drive the price to... wherever. BUT, there is a good old saying: buy the rumour, sell the news. A lot of people knew about it before it was published and took their positions. That is the reason why the Bitcoin price has not moved since the news were published. They are now taking profits and the sheep buying on the news are paying for it. The conclusion in this case, the market is saturated. No more reasonable positive performance for quite a while. 3. Bitfinex Credit Bubble. 30 million USD on loan ? at a price of USD 600 this makes at least 50.000 bitcoins which need to be sold at some stage. There will be no CCMF before this problem is off the table. look at current volumes. This is more than 10 days of Bitstamp volume.... 4. Bitcoin auction. Till today, no one knows about the price and people are estimating sky high numbers. An auction price around USD 600 would at this point a very profitable trade worthwhile to realise some profits. But it certainly caps bitcoin performance. 5. Further Bitcoin auctions. What should I say... more Bitcoin to come to the market 6. Adoption. People are very bullish about retailers adopting bitcoin. For me that is bearish news. There are people with thousands of BTC who just don´t want to pay tax. Just buying their luxury goods with bitcoins is what they are waiting for a long time. Selling them for USD, EUR or whatever would mean they would need to pay taxes. Just buying goods is a nice tax evasion scheme. 7. Wall Street will enter... yawn. I know hedgefunds which are playing bitcoin since 2012. If they do something, they are selling 8. Bitcoin is a new technology. Bitcoin is as old as the IPhone 3.... You just heard about it too late and believe you found something new.... I personally would not spend 600 USD on a bitcoin. I believe that it is highly overvalued at this price and everyone paying this amount of money is out of his mind. I still have enough to make a good living, but I will rather sell some than buy... Nominated for stupid post of the year. Your points don't deserve counterpoints. They are laughable. |
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2660
Merit: 2364
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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July 22, 2014, 09:00:09 PM |
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xyzzy099
Legendary
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Activity: 1068
Merit: 1109
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July 22, 2014, 09:01:13 PM |
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Ha! Try using any ultra-capitalist third-world country instead of East Germany, and you will reach the opposite conclusion... What exactly do you define as 'ultra-capitalist'? Could you name a few such countries, just so I understand what you mean here? |
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Hfertig
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July 22, 2014, 09:02:50 PM |
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Bears are idiots. It is clear we broke the downtrend - you cannot just redraw a a downtrend line to match today's price Wow, you sir are the perfect example why old time bitcoiners don´t want to contribute to this forum anymore. There is someone who spends time and efforts to contribute to this forum and all you have to say is that bears are idiots ? Instead of "thank you for your analysis, but I got a different view because of...." you call this person an idiot ? Actually not only this person, but all bears ? Looking through your posts, I was not able to find any contribution from your side which was a bit valuable. In my view, you are the idiot here. Just because you have only seen Bitcoin in a three digit range, you believe there will be no other ? I would not be too sure of that. There could be a big disappointment. I believe in Charts to some extend, and believe the guy has done a reasonable job. Can he predict the future ? Certainly not, we all don´t know where Bitcoin is going. There is more than just drawing lines. I am a bear in this situation, but instead of calling all the bulls idiots, I will try to back it up with some reasonable points. 1. The Chartanalysis above...... 2. Dell news. This is major news !!! I agree on that and should drive the price to... wherever. BUT, there is a good old saying: buy the rumour, sell the news. A lot of people knew about it before it was published and took their positions. That is the reason why the Bitcoin price has not moved since the news were published. They are now taking profits and the sheep buying on the news are paying for it. The conclusion in this case, the market is saturated. No more reasonable positive performance for quite a while. 3. Bitfinex Credit Bubble. 30 million USD on loan ? at a price of USD 600 this makes at least 50.000 bitcoins which need to be sold at some stage. There will be no CCMF before this problem is off the table. look at current volumes. This is more than 10 days of Bitstamp volume.... 4. Bitcoin auction. Till today, no one knows about the price and people are estimating sky high numbers. An auction price around USD 600 would at this point a very profitable trade worthwhile to realise some profits. But it certainly caps bitcoin performance. 5. Further Bitcoin auctions. What should I say... more Bitcoin to come to the market 6. Adoption. People are very bullish about retailers adopting bitcoin. For me that is bearish news. There are people with thousands of BTC who just don´t want to pay tax. Just buying their luxury goods with bitcoins is what they are waiting for a long time. Selling them for USD, EUR or whatever would mean they would need to pay taxes. Just buying goods is a nice tax evasion scheme. 7. Wall Street will enter... yawn. I know hedgefunds which are playing bitcoin since 2012. If they do something, they are selling 8. Bitcoin is a new technology. Bitcoin is as old as the IPhone 3.... You just heard about it too late and believe you found something new.... I personally would not spend 600 USD on a bitcoin. I believe that it is highly overvalued at this price and everyone paying this amount of money is out of his mind. I still have enough to make a good living, but I will rather sell some than buy... Nominated for stupid post of the year. Your points don't deserve counterpoints. They are laughable. That is because you don´t have any counterpoints.... This is laughable |
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Erdogan
Legendary
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Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
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July 22, 2014, 09:10:59 PM |
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I wonder, since Argentinians use USD for real estate trades, will it even be possible to have a local currency in Argentina after the next hyperinflation? |
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empowering
Legendary
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Activity: 1092
Merit: 1442
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July 22, 2014, 09:18:50 PM
Last edit: July 22, 2014, 09:39:41 PM by empowering |
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Bears are idiots. It is clear we broke the downtrend - you cannot just redraw a a downtrend line to match today's price Wow, you sir are the perfect example why old time bitcoiners don´t want to contribute to this forum anymore. There is someone who spends time and efforts to contribute to this forum and all you have to say is that bears are idiots ? Instead of "thank you for your analysis, but I got a different view because of...." you call this person an idiot ? Actually not only this person, but all bears ? Looking through your posts, I was not able to find any contribution from your side which was a bit valuable. In my view, you are the idiot here. Just because you have only seen Bitcoin in a three digit range, you believe there will be no other ? I would not be too sure of that. There could be a big disappointment. I believe in Charts to some extend, and believe the guy has done a reasonable job. Can he predict the future ? Certainly not, we all don´t know where Bitcoin is going. There is more than just drawing lines. I am a bear in this situation, but instead of calling all the bulls idiots, I will try to back it up with some reasonable points. 1. The Chartanalysis above...... 2. Dell news. This is major news !!! I agree on that and should drive the price to... wherever. BUT, there is a good old saying: buy the rumour, sell the news. A lot of people knew about it before it was published and took their positions. That is the reason why the Bitcoin price has not moved since the news were published. They are now taking profits and the sheep buying on the news are paying for it. The conclusion in this case, the market is saturated. No more reasonable positive performance for quite a while. 3. Bitfinex Credit Bubble. 30 million USD on loan ? at a price of USD 600 this makes at least 50.000 bitcoins which need to be sold at some stage. There will be no CCMF before this problem is off the table. look at current volumes. This is more than 10 days of Bitstamp volume.... 4. Bitcoin auction. Till today, no one knows about the price and people are estimating sky high numbers. An auction price around USD 600 would at this point a very profitable trade worthwhile to realise some profits. But it certainly caps bitcoin performance. 5. Further Bitcoin auctions. What should I say... more Bitcoin to come to the market 6. Adoption. People are very bullish about retailers adopting bitcoin. For me that is bearish news. There are people with thousands of BTC who just don´t want to pay tax. Just buying their luxury goods with bitcoins is what they are waiting for a long time. Selling them for USD, EUR or whatever would mean they would need to pay taxes. Just buying goods is a nice tax evasion scheme. 7. Wall Street will enter... yawn. I know hedgefunds which are playing bitcoin since 2012. If they do something, they are selling 8. Bitcoin is a new technology. Bitcoin is as old as the IPhone 3.... You just heard about it too late and believe you found something new.... I personally would not spend 600 USD on a bitcoin. I believe that it is highly overvalued at this price and everyone paying this amount of money is out of his mind. I still have enough to make a good living, but I will rather sell some than buy... Nominated for stupid post of the year. Your points don't deserve counterpoints. They are laughable. That is because you don´t have any counterpoints.... This is laughable 1 - pfft 2 - Who are these "lot" of people that knew? that "bought the rumor" and where was their buying? or price spike up from this? (even a small one) and where is the corrosponding dump ? of the sell the news ? price has been stable since news came out... 3 - Do you not consider that volume might actually increase? and then what happens with this theory/problem 4- I think just as many people know the price as knew about Dell accepting BTC - and really we know it was above market value- and that Tim won all lots- that says plenty- and does it look like Tim D is about to sell his coins to realise this "great profit"? 5- And so what if there is demand- to date demand has not fallen compared to supply - the DPR coins are already part of the coins in circulation- even if they are not currently "out in the market place" it is just as if they are in cold storage - and also so what ? did you see what happened with the last auction? 6- I am bullish about more and more and more merchants accepting Bitcoin , rather than on just one- it is a stage BTC must go through to continue down the path to glory - and it is doing so- how else can we get btc to ubiquity without getting more and more merchants onboard? and give it some bloody time. 7- Nice anecdote -please tell us more- do you know everyone on wall street ? and again = time 8 - The components that make up an I-phone are actually decades old tech ! yup you heard me- it is just now that they are packaged into a "sleek and small" device in the way that they are - and at a price that is affordable- Iphone could have come to market 20 years ago if Jobs had his act together and if people were willing to pay $100,000 for each one- and it be the size of half a brick exagerating t woudl have been smaller than that, but a fraction larger than what it is today - the only thing that has changed really is the cost and size- the tech was there already or in advanced stages of being developed decades ago - or was in one form or another already in the market place- it is old tech- repackaged and shrunk - to be accurate. Compared to the blockchain/BTC protocol which is not an old tech. In fact most of the tech in i-phones we have military R&D to thank for.. not Steve Jobs- he (and a massive team) just came up a way to put them all togehter- and mechano'd them into the "sleek" package all together in a useful gadget (a useful gadget that gets thrown away every year or 2 at that) |
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Kipsy89
Sr. Member
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Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Relax!
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July 22, 2014, 09:21:00 PM |
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I just came to the Speculation forum and found a thread where fonzie supposedly stated something bullish!!! What happened? Did hell freeze over?
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molecular
Donator
Legendary
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Activity: 2800
Merit: 1023
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July 22, 2014, 09:21:24 PM |
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I just came to the Speculation forum and found a thread where fonzie supposedly stated something bullish!!! What happened? Did hell freeze over?
link or it didn't happen |
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hmmmstrange
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July 22, 2014, 09:22:36 PM |
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Ha! Try using any ultra-capitalist third-world country instead of East Germany, and you will reach the opposite conclusion... yeah, you could say the same thing about capitalism.. socialism is not great, but people act like it's the devil and capitalism is perfect. Any form of government "breeds" sociopaths. The word breeds is a little misplaced. The fact is, sociopaths are created in time of distress in childhood. The more peaceful your childhood is, the less likely you will become inflicted. Where sociopaths do the most harm in society, is when they are in power. If you centralize power in the form of a government, you will unwittingly draw the sociopaths to positions in said government. The best liars make the best politicians. It is much easier to deal with sociopaths when they don't control armed forces. |
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mmitech
Legendary
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Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
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July 22, 2014, 09:25:35 PM |
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I just came to the Speculation forum and found a thread where fonzie supposedly stated something bullish!!! What happened? Did hell freeze over?
link or it didn't happen here you go: Bids on Stamp look healthy. 1000 BTC to 620$ ; 3000 BTC to 610$. Ready to lift off. We also have a very similar fractal compared with the 430$ breakout.
TO THE MOON
is this a Fonzie I see before me?  It´s even worse. I used snakesoil sale tactics to lure in 3 friends of mine to invest altogether 45k$ into the BTC scheme in the the last 2 weeks. I´m bullish as fuck( and of course ALL IN)!!!  |
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