Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[molecular]

Just posted the following on reddit in response to "wtf is causing price to fall?", thought I'd share it here, too:

-----------------

Market dynamics:

Negative feedback

Usually there is a dampening effect prevalent in the market

• when price rises, demand decreases and supply increases
• when price falls, demand increases and supply decreases

It's pretty easy to see: at lower prices there's more people willing to buy, at higher prices there's more people willing to sell.

This has dampening effect on price movement: each time the price wants to take a hike in any direction, it's slowed down by this.

This is called **negative feedback**, because a result of the process influences the process itself in such a way that **it reduces changes**.

However in some situations like now there are stronger effects that resemble **positive feedback**. With positive feedback, the results of the process influence the process itself in such a way that the **magnitude of the change increases**.

I can think of a couple of things that might currently be in effect and have a positive feedback on falling price:

• Miners: miners are forced to sell part of the mined coins to cover fiat expenses. A falling price causes them to increase the percentage of coins they have to sell => positive feedback
• Margin calls, forced liquidation:  falling price can trigger leveraged longs on exchange to be automatically liquidated, which results in more selling => positive feedback
• Market participant psychology: falling price causes frustration, anger, and fear in at least some market participants, which in turn causes them to sell => positive feedback.

So: the system is out of balance.

Fortunately, all of the above positive feedback effects are dependant on some resource that is reduced and ultimately depleted in the process:

• miners: they cannot sell more than 100%
• liquidations: there's only so many longs
• psychology: the panic-sellers have only a limited amount of coins

So don't worry: the imbalance to the downside is only temporary ;-)

----------------

not sure how naive or accurate, but these are my thoughts on the reasons of the price fall.

[1714130775]

1714130775

[Chuckee]

Fairly sure you are a) not an outsider, and b) probably operate more than one similar account on btc. Who are you really?

I was a respected member of this forum in the past, but was banned by your moderators out of fear that my observations would cause a panic. Thus, I was forced to open this new account in order to spread the word of bitcoin's upcoming demise. Cut your loose while you still can!

[akujin]

I wanna see the ~300's again  

Hello there 300's! It's been 4 months since the last time I saw you  

I wanna see the ~300's again  

Chances of that are very less , we haven't even seen under $400 for last few months

I wanna see the ~300's again  

lol, you want price will reduce to 50%, do you know the effect of 50% down.

Price is fairly stable. Bears come out and try to talk people into selling by predicting a fall down to 3xx and 4xx. Hrmph.

[mmitech]

Just posted the following on reddit in response to "wtf is causing price to fall?", thought I'd share it here, too:

-----------------

Market dynamics:

Negative feedback

Usually there is a dampening effect prevalent in the market

• when price rises, demand decreases and supply increases
• when price falls, demand increases and supply decreases

It's pretty easy to see: at lower prices there's more people willing to buy, at higher prices there's more people willing to sell.

This has dampening effect on price movement: each time the price wants to take a hike in any direction, it's slowed down by this.

This is called **negative feedback**, because a result of the process influences the process itself in such a way that **it reduces changes**.

However in some situations like now there are stronger effects that resemble **positive feedback**. With positive feedback, the results of the process influence the process itself in such a way that the **magnitude of the change increases**.

I can think of a couple of things that might currently be in effect and have a positive feedback on falling price:

• Miners: miners are forced to sell part of the mined coins to cover fiat expenses. A falling price causes them to increase the percentage of coins they have to sell => positive feedback
• Margin calls, forced liquidation:  falling price can trigger leveraged longs on exchange to be automatically liquidated, which results in more selling => positive feedback
• Market participant psychology: falling price causes frustration, anger, and fear in at least some market participants, which in turn causes them to sell => positive feedback.

So: the system is out of balance.

Fortunately, all of the above positive feedback effects are dependant on some resource that is reduced and ultimately depleted in the process:

• miners: they cannot sell more than 100%
• liquidations: there's only so many longs
• psychology: the panic-sellers have only a limited amount of coins

So don't worry: the imbalance to the downside is only temporary ;-)

----------------

not sure how naive or accurate, but these are my thoughts on the reasons of the price fall.

PS: just kidding, don't take it too personal.

[sidhujag]

Theres more than a $20 premium on cavirtex.com (its lagging) happy arbing!

[600watt]

i don't know what is worse:

this catastrophic price movement (i am losing a fortune)

or

that those goddammbeartrolls were right.

 

[dropt]

Theres more than a $20 premium on cavirtex.com (its lagging) happy arbing!

Last Virtex trade was $510.96, exchange rate is $0.92 USD -> $1CAD.   So, $510.96CAD is ~469.20USD.   Bitstamp last trade at ~$465.29

Summary: NOPE.

[wingsfan23]

This drop is a blessing in disguise... Let's be honest: The current infrastructure is horrible. It's embarrassing whenever I convince someone bitcoin is amazing, and then they ask how to buy them, and I struggle to tell them it takes 4 days to set up an account with coinbase... We didn't have a proper phone wallet up until a couple months ago, and it still has errors. We are still waiting for crypto hardware or easy multisig wallets to be released so that the general public can feel safe using bitcoin... Relax.

This gives us more time to perfect everything before we step up to the main stage. We know bitcoin isn't going anywhere now, it is far past the tipping point. There are amazing innovations popping up everywhere. Let's all just take a second to breathe, and give the developers a little bit of time to bring their projects online! This is the most disruptive tech the world has ever seen, its gonna take more than a couple months to change the world (and get rich...)!

[molecular]

i don't know what is worse:

this catastrophic price movement (i am losing a fortune)

or

that those goddammbeartrolls were right.

 

hehe.

clearly the former.

[dropt]

This drop is a blessing in disguise... Let's be honest: The current infrastructure is horrible. It's embarrassing whenever I convince someone bitcoin is amazing, and then they ask how to buy them, and I struggle to tell them it takes 4 days to set up an account with coinbase... We didn't have a proper phone wallet up until a couple months ago, and it still has errors. We are still waiting for crypto hardware or easy multisig wallets to be released so that the general public can feel safe using bitcoin... Relax.

This gives us more time to perfect everything before we step up to the main stage. We know bitcoin isn't going anywhere now, it is far past the tipping point. There are amazing innovations popping up everywhere. Let's all just take a second to breathe, and give the developers a little bit of time to bring their projects online! This is the most disruptive tech the world has ever seen, its gonna take more than a couple months to change the world (and get rich...)!

What are you on about?  Bitcoin hit >$1100 USD and the landscape was far worse.

[inca]

i don't know what is worse:

this catastrophic price movement (i am losing a fortune)

or

that those goddammbeartrolls were right.

 

I am reminded of the line from battlestar galactica, "All this has happened before, all this will happen again".

[adamstgBit]

Theres more than a $20 premium on cavirtex.com (its lagging) happy arbing!

bid is 506.17CAD about 464.88USD  its a good price..

i'm there now having my say   

[5cMXezpBtm]

This drop is a blessing in disguise... Let's be honest: The current infrastructure is horrible. It's embarrassing whenever I convince someone bitcoin is amazing, and then they ask how to buy them, and I struggle to tell them it takes 4 days to set up an account with coinbase... We didn't have a proper phone wallet up until a couple months ago, and it still has errors. We are still waiting for crypto hardware or easy multisig wallets to be released so that the general public can feel safe using bitcoin... Relax.

This gives us more time to perfect everything before we step up to the main stage. We know bitcoin isn't going anywhere now, it is far past the tipping point. There are amazing innovations popping up everywhere. Let's all just take a second to breathe, and give the developers a little bit of time to bring their projects online! This is the most disruptive tech the world has ever seen, its gonna take more than a couple months to change the world (and get rich...)!

+1
You could get MultiBitHD Beta tester to bring some prosperity to the infrastructure for example.

[bassclef]

Keep selling everyone I'm redoing my kitchen.

[thefunkybits]

I have a feeling things could get ugly soon

Exchanges be like:

[fonzie]

Seems like the worst is yet to come.    

@JorgeStolfi could you please post that chart with your calculations that show that without China we would probably be around something around 70-100$

[Chuckee]

Seems like the worst is yet to come.   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[GreekGeek]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TE60Npeyx6s

ride the "rubber rocket" 

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Game Over .-.  .-.  .-.