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Question: May 18 Bitcoin Closing Price (Stamp):
$0 - 1 (0.7%)
<$5,000 - 7 (4.6%)
$5,000-$5,500 - 2 (1.3%)
$5,500-$6,000 - 0 (0%)
$6,000-$6,500 - 5 (3.3%)
$6,500-$7,000 - 15 (9.9%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 17 (11.2%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 24 (15.8%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 19 (12.5%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 15 (9.9%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 10 (6.6%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 7 (4.6%)
$10,000-$20,000 - 16 (10.5%)
>$20,000 - 14 (9.2%)
Total Voters: 152

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21168384 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (23 posts by 12 users deleted.)
empowering
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August 18, 2014, 07:18:23 PM

Bubble isn't going to happen... probably never, but it's certainly going to be a long time at least. People cutting their loose now, Much better places to stick your cash for the next 6 months while we wait to see where this goes.

You registered here two days ago. Forgive me if i take every word you write with a pinch of salt. If it isn't going to rise again, why do you want to buy in lower?

You can trust me because I bring forth an outsider's view of bitcoin. For the past year, people here have been brainwashed by the echo chamber, they have no ability to think rationally anymore!

Fairly sure you are a) not an outsider, and b) probably operate more than one similar account on btc. Who are you really?

Pretty sure this entire thread is just Adam talking to himself with alt accounts. Even I'm not sure I'm real.


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adamstgBit
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August 18, 2014, 07:19:45 PM

Bubble isn't going to happen... probably never, but it's certainly going to be a long time at least. People cutting their loose now, Much better places to stick your cash for the next 6 months while we wait to see where this goes.

You registered here two days ago. Forgive me if i take every word you write with a pinch of salt. If it isn't going to rise again, why do you want to buy in lower?

You can trust me because I bring forth an outsider's view of bitcoin. For the past year, people here have been brainwashed by the echo chamber, they have no ability to think rationally anymore!

Fairly sure you are a) not an outsider, and b) probably operate more than one similar account on btc. Who are you really?

Pretty sure this entire thread is just Adam talking to himself with alt accounts. Even I'm not sure I'm real.


Brilliant

 Cheesy
5cMXezpBtm
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August 18, 2014, 07:20:31 PM


Pretty sure this entire thread is just Adam talking to himself with alt accounts. Even I'm not sure I'm real.

No, that's not what I...I mean...uh...Adam...that's not what we're doing at all!

Yes! We're all complete different persons! I can guarantee!
molecular
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August 18, 2014, 07:24:38 PM

Just posted the following on reddit in response to "wtf is causing price to fall?", thought I'd share it here, too:

-----------------

Market dynamics:

Negative feedback

Usually there is a dampening effect prevalent in the market

  • when price rises, demand decreases and supply increases
  • when price falls, demand increases and supply decreases

It's pretty easy to see: at lower prices there's more people willing to buy, at higher prices there's more people willing to sell.

This has dampening effect on price movement: each time the price wants to take a hike in any direction, it's slowed down by this.

This is called **negative feedback**, because a result of the process influences the process itself in such a way that **it reduces changes**.

However in some situations like now there are stronger effects that resemble **positive feedback**. With positive feedback, the results of the process influence the process itself in such a way that the **magnitude of the change increases**.

I can think of a couple of things that might currently be in effect and have a positive feedback on falling price:

  • Miners: miners are forced to sell part of the mined coins to cover fiat expenses. A falling price causes them to increase the percentage of coins they have to sell => positive feedback
  • Margin calls, forced liquidation:  falling price can trigger leveraged longs on exchange to be automatically liquidated, which results in more selling => positive feedback
  • Market participant psychology: falling price causes frustration, anger, and fear in at least some market participants, which in turn causes them to sell => positive feedback.

So: the system is out of balance.

Fortunately, all of the above positive feedback effects are dependant on some resource that is reduced and ultimately depleted in the process:

  • miners: they cannot sell more than 100%
  • liquidations: there's only so many longs
  • psychology: the panic-sellers have only a limited amount of coins

So don't worry: the imbalance to the downside is only temporary ;-)

----------------

not sure how naive or accurate, but these are my thoughts on the reasons of the price fall.
Chuckee
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August 18, 2014, 07:29:17 PM

Fairly sure you are a) not an outsider, and b) probably operate more than one similar account on btc. Who are you really?

I was a respected member of this forum in the past, but was banned by your moderators out of fear that my observations would cause a panic. Thus, I was forced to open this new account in order to spread the word of bitcoin's upcoming demise. Cut your loose while you still can!
akujin
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August 18, 2014, 07:29:45 PM
Last edit: August 19, 2014, 01:16:25 PM by akujin

I wanna see the ~300's again  Grin Grin Grin

Hello there 300's! It's been 4 months since the last time I saw you  Grin Grin Grin



I wanna see the ~300's again  Grin Grin Grin

Chances of that are very less , we haven't even seen under $400 for last few months Tongue
I wanna see the ~300's again  Grin Grin Grin

lol, you want price will reduce to 50%, do you know the effect of 50% down.
Price is fairly stable. Bears come out and try to talk people into selling by predicting a fall down to 3xx and 4xx. Hrmph.


mmitech
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August 18, 2014, 07:31:44 PM

Just posted the following on reddit in response to "wtf is causing price to fall?", thought I'd share it here, too:

-----------------

Market dynamics:

Negative feedback

Usually there is a dampening effect prevalent in the market

  • when price rises, demand decreases and supply increases
  • when price falls, demand increases and supply decreases

It's pretty easy to see: at lower prices there's more people willing to buy, at higher prices there's more people willing to sell.

This has dampening effect on price movement: each time the price wants to take a hike in any direction, it's slowed down by this.

This is called **negative feedback**, because a result of the process influences the process itself in such a way that **it reduces changes**.

However in some situations like now there are stronger effects that resemble **positive feedback**. With positive feedback, the results of the process influence the process itself in such a way that the **magnitude of the change increases**.

I can think of a couple of things that might currently be in effect and have a positive feedback on falling price:

  • Miners: miners are forced to sell part of the mined coins to cover fiat expenses. A falling price causes them to increase the percentage of coins they have to sell => positive feedback
  • Margin calls, forced liquidation:  falling price can trigger leveraged longs on exchange to be automatically liquidated, which results in more selling => positive feedback
  • Market participant psychology: falling price causes frustration, anger, and fear in at least some market participants, which in turn causes them to sell => positive feedback.

So: the system is out of balance.

Fortunately, all of the above positive feedback effects are dependant on some resource that is reduced and ultimately depleted in the process:

  • miners: they cannot sell more than 100%
  • liquidations: there's only so many longs
  • psychology: the panic-sellers have only a limited amount of coins

So don't worry: the imbalance to the downside is only temporary ;-)

----------------

not sure how naive or accurate, but these are my thoughts on the reasons of the price fall.





PS: just kidding, don't take it too personal.
sidhujag
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August 18, 2014, 07:33:21 PM

Theres more than a $20 premium on cavirtex.com (its lagging) happy arbing!
600watt
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August 18, 2014, 07:33:30 PM

i don't know what is worse:

this catastrophic price movement (i am losing a fortune)

or

that those goddammbeartrolls were right.

 Tongue
dropt
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August 18, 2014, 07:37:25 PM

Theres more than a $20 premium on cavirtex.com (its lagging) happy arbing!

Last Virtex trade was $510.96, exchange rate is $0.92 USD -> $1CAD.   So, $510.96CAD is ~469.20USD.   Bitstamp last trade at ~$465.29

Summary: NOPE.
wingsfan23
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August 18, 2014, 07:40:02 PM

This drop is a blessing in disguise... Let's be honest: The current infrastructure is horrible. It's embarrassing whenever I convince someone bitcoin is amazing, and then they ask how to buy them, and I struggle to tell them it takes 4 days to set up an account with coinbase... We didn't have a proper phone wallet up until a couple months ago, and it still has errors. We are still waiting for crypto hardware or easy multisig wallets to be released so that the general public can feel safe using bitcoin... Relax.

This gives us more time to perfect everything before we step up to the main stage. We know bitcoin isn't going anywhere now, it is far past the tipping point. There are amazing innovations popping up everywhere. Let's all just take a second to breathe, and give the developers a little bit of time to bring their projects online! This is the most disruptive tech the world has ever seen, its gonna take more than a couple months to change the world (and get rich...)!

molecular
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August 18, 2014, 07:40:08 PM

i don't know what is worse:

this catastrophic price movement (i am losing a fortune)

or

that those goddammbeartrolls were right.

 Tongue

hehe.

clearly the former.
dropt
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August 18, 2014, 07:42:47 PM

This drop is a blessing in disguise... Let's be honest: The current infrastructure is horrible. It's embarrassing whenever I convince someone bitcoin is amazing, and then they ask how to buy them, and I struggle to tell them it takes 4 days to set up an account with coinbase... We didn't have a proper phone wallet up until a couple months ago, and it still has errors. We are still waiting for crypto hardware or easy multisig wallets to be released so that the general public can feel safe using bitcoin... Relax.

This gives us more time to perfect everything before we step up to the main stage. We know bitcoin isn't going anywhere now, it is far past the tipping point. There are amazing innovations popping up everywhere. Let's all just take a second to breathe, and give the developers a little bit of time to bring their projects online! This is the most disruptive tech the world has ever seen, its gonna take more than a couple months to change the world (and get rich...)!

What are you on about?  Bitcoin hit >$1100 USD and the landscape was far worse.
inca
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August 18, 2014, 07:43:02 PM

i don't know what is worse:

this catastrophic price movement (i am losing a fortune)

or

that those goddammbeartrolls were right.

 Tongue

I am reminded of the line from battlestar galactica, "All this has happened before, all this will happen again".
adamstgBit
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August 18, 2014, 07:46:59 PM

Theres more than a $20 premium on cavirtex.com (its lagging) happy arbing!
bid is 506.17CAD about 464.88USD  its a good price..

i'm there now having my say   Smiley
5cMXezpBtm
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August 18, 2014, 07:51:17 PM

This drop is a blessing in disguise... Let's be honest: The current infrastructure is horrible. It's embarrassing whenever I convince someone bitcoin is amazing, and then they ask how to buy them, and I struggle to tell them it takes 4 days to set up an account with coinbase... We didn't have a proper phone wallet up until a couple months ago, and it still has errors. We are still waiting for crypto hardware or easy multisig wallets to be released so that the general public can feel safe using bitcoin... Relax.

This gives us more time to perfect everything before we step up to the main stage. We know bitcoin isn't going anywhere now, it is far past the tipping point. There are amazing innovations popping up everywhere. Let's all just take a second to breathe, and give the developers a little bit of time to bring their projects online! This is the most disruptive tech the world has ever seen, its gonna take more than a couple months to change the world (and get rich...)!



+1
You could get MultiBitHD Beta tester to bring some prosperity to the infrastructure for example.
bassclef
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August 18, 2014, 07:53:27 PM

Keep selling everyone I'm redoing my kitchen.
thefunkybits
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August 18, 2014, 07:54:29 PM

I have a feeling things could get ugly soon

Exchanges be like:

fonzie
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August 18, 2014, 07:57:42 PM

Seems like the worst is yet to come.  Angry  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

@JorgeStolfi could you please post that chart with your calculations that show that without China we would probably be around something around 70-100$
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August 18, 2014, 07:59:10 PM

Seems like the worst is yet to come.  Angry  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

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