Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[edwardspitz]

So anyway, we're just a few days away from an event that should begin to provide buying pressure to Bitcoin.  Still a chance we could go a great deal lower until this happens.  After that, I expect the ramp up that began on 10/2/2013.  I'll let you know when the day hits.

OK, I am letting you know.  The event has occurred.  No, it wasn't the Scotland vote.  I expect us to begin slowly ramping up now.

End of USG/FED QE?

No.  It's much more subtle than that.  But it has happened at the start of every bubble rally.

You mean there is a method in the madness? I'm 90% in. Let's go! Also, please give a hint 

[lemonte]

So anyway, we're just a few days away from an event that should begin to provide buying pressure to Bitcoin.  Still a chance we could go a great deal lower until this happens.  After that, I expect the ramp up that began on 10/2/2013.  I'll let you know when the day hits.

OK, I am letting you know.  The event has occurred.  No, it wasn't the Scotland vote.  I expect us to begin slowly ramping up now.

End of USG/FED QE?

No.  It's much more subtle than that.  But it has happened at the start of every bubble rally.

Spill the beans, I am very interested in hearing your theory.

[adamstgBit]

yes do tell

[tifozi]

Adam, you are one of the funniest persons on the block. No confirmations needed.

[Argwai96]

..these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room.

This quote should be immortalized, instant classic.

Immortalized!

Hmm so bitfinex has a unique way of performing margin calls. First they add it on the ask side, if nobody buys after a certain time it gets dumped.

Yes, it's very interesting that they're essentially speculating on their own with user funds instead of liquidating @market.

Really? Did they state they do this? How would one be able to tell by watching the charts -- couldn't someone just be placing asks, then removing to market sell when they aren't bought?

I recall that they did within this thread (the principle, but not the specifics of the algo, obviously), read it very carefully: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2dohjg/im_josh_rossi_from_bitfinex_here_to_talk_about/

Interesting. I have seen the speed bumps in action and have experienced them myself (quite annoying sitting with partially filled orders with no idea whether BFX will fill them or not). But I had not taken this to mean that.

[Argwai96]

Indeed, or if we are being conservative they are at least saying that they decide how the impact will be on the market. The only way they can do this is by taking a position, bid or ask. So in essence that is market manipulation. Claiming that they are not trading on behalf of users is just nonsense. Margin call is either dump or not. If its not then its taking a position (using user funds for speculative reasons).

With the notion of speed bump they admit to intervening. Also because they adjusted it from market dump (the default way of doing it), the only other option is that they actually take positions.

(The only other way is to dump some then wait for bid side til fill in again, but that is also manipulative. They are actively deciding what the price will be)

Of course they are manipulating. I've always preferred the way BTCE handled things -- the order book is the order book, period. But given the ease of causing margin cascades, as Bitfinex has such low liquidity, I can understand their position to an extent.

[colour]

I guess we won't see any significant upward movement until new funds arrive at the exchanges on Monday? Probably just sideways movement followed by occasional dumps until then.

[cmacwiz]

Alright, if there isn't a bubble within the next 4 months, Raystonn is full of shit. Remember people, if he spills the beans to us there will never ever ever be a bubble again!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Taras]

Adam, you are one of the funniest persons on the block. No confirmations needed.

Well technically getting into the block would subsequently cause a confirmation

[UnDerDoG81]

I guess we´ll see 300 soon. Not that I care, I am in so much loss, I can HODL only. I´ll sink with this ship what gives

[Searing]

I guess we´ll see 300 soon. Not that I care, I am in so much loss, I can HODL only. I´ll sink with this ship what gives

I bought 1 BTC at $380.01 today off www.coinbase.com...so obviously I jinxed it sorry about that....it now will tank more

( I ALWAYS pick the wrong time to buy...what can I say I'm a Savant!)

anyway figured I'd let folks know so they can have  a chuckle when it slips below that price ...er..hmm...prob in next 3 min
the way my luck runs

oh well its only money right?

[adamstgBit]

I think bitcoin dropped has been dropping and might continue to drop (         )  for many many reasons, none of which I or anyone else could predict and so I and a lot of poeplez bought in too early...

I honestly thought the "bubble" would "pop" and then blow up again and just get bigger as larger and larger waves of poeple started to convert their fiats to bits!!!

Sadly a lot of things blew up in our faces ( the bubble(we kinda saw that one coming but still it went KA-FUCKING-BOOM), mtgox, china, bitlicense, etc... ) needless to say things didn't go as planned, and people lost shit tons of money and or "net worth"

Now Investor confidence is extremely low, traders are playing hot potato trying to get 1% on a quick bounce, and early adopters and or large BTC whales are cutting loose, and even I am having bearish thoughts!!

I don't have to tell you things are bad, everyone knows things are bad...

hoist the colours.

[lemonte]

Looks like China have woken up on the wong side of the bed today.

[Argwai96]

adamstgBit -- True that. Very good points. A couple months ago, I thought we might visit these levels, BUT I also thought we would have a high volume selloff and rally, like we have several times before. This time, there are no buyers at every damn support level we hit. This environment is one of very low confidence. There is no reason anymore to try to buy the bottom. Better to wait for the market to show signs of reversal, whether that's at $380 or $300 or $250 or $80.....

[UnDerDoG81]

I guess we´ll see 300 soon. Not that I care, I am in so much loss, I can HODL only. I´ll sink with this ship what gives

I bought 1 BTC at $380.01 today off www.coinbase.com...so obviously I jinxed it sorry about that....it now will tank more

( I ALWAYS pick the wrong time to buy...what can I say I'm a Savant!)

anyway figured I'd let folks know so they can have  a chuckle when it slips below that price ...er..hmm...prob in next 3 min
the way my luck runs

oh well its only money right?

I always sell on the bottom, so my coins are on a paper wallet since April. So I cant touch them and I don´t care about BTC at the moment. Just watching the drop... I "lost" 50% (invested 5 figures at middle range) if I would sell now. What gives, just money... Fuck it

[Taras]

I'm calling the psychological bottom at $266.
Mostly because I've never called a top or bottom before. Feels interesting.

[Room101]

I think bitcoin dropped has been dropping and might continue to drop (         )  for many many reasons, none of which I or anyone else could predict and so I and a lot of poeplez bought in too early...

I honestly thought the "bubble" would "pop" and then blow up again and just get bigger as larger and larger waves of poeple started to convert their fiats to bits!!!

Sadly a lot of things blew up in our faces ( the bubble(we kinda saw that one coming but still it went KA-FUCKING-BOOM), mtgox, china, bitlicense, etc... ) needless to say things didn't go as planned, and people lost shit tons of money and or "net worth" (  unrealized profits ).

Now Investor confidence is extremely low, traders are playing hot potato trying to get 1% on a quick bounce, and early adopters and or large BTC whales are cutting loose, and even I am having bearish thoughts!!

I don't have to tell you things are bad, everyone knows things are bad...

hoist the colours.

Relax man, BTC is still toiling away, slowly moving towards what it is meant to be: a trustable banking solution to the billions of unbanked. The infrastructure is being laid down faster and faster. Like a train line that is expensive and useless until it is finished, BTC is going through the growing pains that accompany moving from speculative asset to useful asset. Think about all that has happened in the last year, and realise we have a lot less to be worried about now than we did then.

Plus if all else fails, the darknet is still growing strongly, and BTC will always reign supreme there, soon the kiddies won't remember buying drugs any other way.

[blade87]

adamstgBit -- True that. Very good points. A couple months ago, I thought we might visit these levels, BUT I also thought we would have a high volume selloff and rally, like we have several times before. This time, there are no buyers at every damn support level we hit. This environment is one of very low confidence. There is no reason anymore to try to buy the bottom. Better to wait for the market to show signs of reversal, whether that's at $380 or $300 or $250 or $80.....

Pretty much this. Guys like falling can buy their $350 BTC. But what they didn't realize is if it gets to those levels, there's no reason to even enter. If there's going to be another long-term rally, why even try to gamble and call bottom. What difference does buying in at $100-$400 make if this all does come back one day? Money is an asset and I certainly don't want it tied up in something that will probably go no where for a while. A beaten market simply doesn't recover overnight. Until the bag holders slowly forget, they'll be waiting to dump. It's nearly over (for a while).

[Kupsi]

...and even I am having bearish thoughts!!

You have been on the wrong side before. I remember you even bought litecoin one time

Hoist the colours!!!