Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Are the deposits on circle are holded in BTC or fiat?

depends what you deposit i guess.

My English is lacking, hm?

Another trial:

I hold BTC or Fiat on a circle Account? You know what I mean? I guess BTC, but want to be sure.

it is my understanding that circle accounts can hold BTC or Fiat(of any color), and you are free to switch back and forth at anytime, I'm guessing they won't let you do bitcoin trading with this account... its probably part of their policy that it the service should not be used to day trade bitcoin.

I don't want to trade, I only want to send a medium amount of Bitcoins to my Circle Account. It irritates me that there are coming up messages like "you received xxxx.xx $ and not xx BTC. So it's only a reference value in USD and in conclusion nothing more than another form of a Bitcoin wallet or are they converting BTC to USD on entrance?

i have no idea how they balance their books.

but yes the site will always display your balance in $ terms, they feel its easier for new users to see their balance in their local currency.

must be depressing sending bitcoin over there today and watching your balance fall 9%  

Adam: 

From your various responses, it seems that you do NOT have a Circle account.  Surely, I am NO Circle expert because I only started using it at the end of September, and on October 1, I transferred $500 into my Circle account (which translated into 1.29263 BTC.  A I type, my previous $500 is valued at $441; however, the amount of BTC has NOT changed, only the dollar equivalency of my BTC holdings.   

I have NOT yet seen any option to hold my Circle account value in fiat rather than holding in BTC - possibly Circle could add that feature later - though I have my doubts that they are going to allow such (b/c the account would convert into a trading account). 

Actually, before I opened up my account with Circle, I was wondering how Circle was going to prevent people from trading with their zero fees policy, and it appears that their outrageously low weekly limits (starting at $2,500 per week non-immediate transfer or $500 per week immediate transfer); effectively make it difficult to engage in any kind of high quantity or high frequency trading, and their weekly limitations also make these accounts very small potatoes...   Even Coinbase has higher weekly and daily limitations than Circle....  My Coinbase allows for $1,000 per week immediate and $50,000 per week, and the Coinbase limits are constantly updating in order to cause less restrictions. 

Note that my Circle account is brand new and there is a disclaimer that my weekly limits may increase with the passage of time - supposedly as I become a more longer term account holder (we will see?).

[williamj2543]

Aww this price is so low. I want to get back to 500$! We keep falling and falling.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Well it was an interesting ride--learned a lot, and hopefully spared from future speculations that would have gone bad.

Will still have my eye on BTC, but full fiat now.

--2011, the year I learned about BTC
--2014, the year I bought and mined BTC, but obsessed about it, lost money, etc.

Perspective is a funny thing.

See you soon, returning to BTC, possibly in early to mid to late 2015, when btc prices are in the $1.5k to $3k arena.   

[gizmoh]

Just looking at the daily chart (stamp): out of the last 28 days (not including today) 21 have been 'red' days.

I'm struggling to find a period in BTC trading worse -- and I've been looking at 2011 and June - August 2013.

I find it crazy that there hasnt been a single bulltrap in over 2 weeks of pure downtrend.

-30+% in 30 days and seemingly no panic about missing the train...

Very bad? Or just a very overdue trap? I cant see how $400 wont be revisited before $300 falls, but I said $355 or so was a bounce point yesterday and yet here we are.

Who isn't hoping for a nice bounce to dump and take their $30 profit or cut some loose? The downtrend with weak bounce suggest total loss of confidence and more room downwards! No one willing to panic buy high! Buyers want cheaper coins.  

[nanobrain]

Perhaps God was sending you a message through your husband

Heh, there is a joke along those lines. It also touches on your tsunami experience though so I'll leave it at that.

I think I know the one !! Fire away  

Something about a boat and a helicopter by any chance ??

I should probably apologise ... I wasn't offended by Empowering's words, it just touched upon something that will stay with me forever, and I guess I wanted to share it as it has shaped my life thereafter.

That's the one

It wouldn't be the first time, and very likely not the last time I regretted not listening to both God and my husband.  However, with regards to Bitcoin, hubby tends to be way more bearish than me.  He likes to sell at the bottom and buy at when it is rising towards the top.  I was telling my friend that the fact he finally wanted to sell today must be proof we hit rock bottom.  

I had peace about holding though.  This is actually weird for me.  I tend to worry far to much so I am thankful that I can not worry about Bitcoin.  Now if I could just pry myself away from these message boards.  I think many of you would rather I wasn't here anyways.  

Everyone here gets tetchy in hard times, even more so with those who maintain a positive attitude.  When (if) we see a reversal everyone will love you again BitChick .....men.... they're so fickle

[JayJuanGee]

One problem I have with this is the assumption that big miners are in it for BTC and not fiat. I don't know everyone's motives but I am sure that for some it is an opportunistic business model (ie buy ASIC's, mine, sell, profit). As such what gives is price and it's a race to the bottom in terms of who has the cheapest electricity. Hardware is a sunk cost now, so it makes sense to continue to mine as long as your electicity costs less than than you can sell the BTC for, even if that means just minimising losses (on sunk costs), for all those miners whose goal is not to accumulate BTC.

We hear many times that miners will just hoard or switch off and buy instead. IMO only those that are true believers and not in it for fiat will do so. The rest will get what they can out of their equipment while they can. Many a bad investment decision has been made in the past and will be in the future in many industries. Why this mythical illusion that BTC is so different?

It looks very much like mining bubble to me

EDIT : In conclusion is it not a perfectly reasonable proposition that difficulty could nosedive to match current price as inefficient miners who are in it for fiat simply switch off their hardware at some point and exit the game or wait for their equipment to become profitable again, if ever? The assumption that they will simply buy BTC instead seems deeply flawed. Meanwhile the BTC inflation rate (supply) will remain constant. In the absence of new demand where does price go ?

I agree that the idea that miners 'start buying' is deeply flawed but when mining becomes unprofitable they will stop mining, supply will be reduced and the price will stabilise.  Is this not part of the big "Satoshi Plan" of checks and balances for the functioning of BTC anyway; at the moment we have a confluence of negative factors: too much supply and negative sentiment due to Gox, Neo et al.

When the miners stop the flow of coins the price will find equilibrium and sentiment will return with a stable price.

Simples.

No ... until the next halving, supply is a constant no matter how many miners mine or what the hash rate is. The unprofitable miners will stop mining, maybe, but that has no effect on the BTC inflation/emission rate, which remains a constant until the next halving regardless of how many miners there are. Whatever the hash rate, the same number of BTC will be mined in the same time (excluding small variance between difficulty adjustments). This is a fundamental part of the BTC protocol - the emission rate is a constant until the 'halvings'


Supply is fixed in this equation, re how many BTC are mined. The variables are difficulty and hash rate, but these have no effect on supply, just on profitability of miners.

If every other miner shut down and you and I could mine the (approx) 3600 BTC per day on laptops once the difficulty rapidly adjusted downwards.

Sure, the network would be massively open to a 51% attack, but I am taking it to en extreme to demonstrate what I believe is a poorly understood function of the BTC supply/demand equilibrium

We'd better get the entire 21M of the buggers mined then and get things simplified then.

And therein lies the problem ... the emission rate is mapped out in advance and an intrinsic part of the protocol ... no way to speed it up without a hard fork. Actually, speeding it up would make things worse right now. Hence the focus on the block reward halving in 2016 (from 25 to 12.5 BTC per block I believe) as a catalyst for the next rally ... LESS SUPPLY !!

Well then, we're screwed.  If these big mining operations don't believe BTC is worth anything as an investment and simply want quick USD profits (or as has been suggested are using it as a way of getting funds out of China) then we are going to have an over-supply which will lead to even lower prices and even fewer people buying or using.  Another year of this and I can't see there being any positive sentiment around BTC.

you think all the bitcoin market put together can't handle 25 BTC every ten mins?

speculation is the thing that makes all these other things completely irrelevant to price.

Clearly it can't.  

Pretty much everything is irrelevant to you with regard to BTC Adam, and while I'm very happy you have such great faith in it, its important to realise that most people clearly have the inverse opinion.

I recall Jorge made a prediction long, long ago that as BTC dwindled in price the market would comprise of fewer and fewer adherents, desperately selling back and forth to each other. That is what seems to be happening at present: there are no new buyers.

There are plenty new buyers... just wait and see... and your assumption about a large majority of the bitcoins being mined out of china is misplaced.. at least currently you can trace the block awards to be quite scattered around the world.

[nanobrain]

Just looking at the daily chart (stamp): out of the last 28 days (not including today) 21 have been 'red' days.

I'm struggling to find a period in BTC trading worse -- and I've been looking at 2011 and June - August 2013.

I find it crazy that there hasnt been a single bulltrap in over 2 weeks of pure downtrend.

-30+% in 30 days and seemingly no panic about missing the train...

Very bad? Or just a very overdue trap? I cant see how $400 wont be revisited before $300 falls, but I said $355 or so was a bounce point yesterday and yet here we are.

No one has been able to present any rational clues on this.
I think the economy is so bad there is no disposable income left over to put into BTC, even it people wanted to buy.
Just my .0001BTC.

A couple of hours ago the bid/ask ratio looked like we could stage a stealthy climb back but (yet again) the ask side just fills up.  Resistance is futile overwhelming.

You can understand why there are so many conspiracy theories; indeed, I'm thinking the best investment option is shares in...

[JayJuanGee]

Just looking at the daily chart (stamp): out of the last 28 days (not including today) 21 have been 'red' days.

I'm struggling to find a period in BTC trading worse -- and I've been looking at 2011 and June - August 2013.

I find it crazy that there hasnt been a single bulltrap in over 2 weeks of pure downtrend.

-30+% in 30 days and seemingly no panic about missing the train...

Very bad? Or just a very overdue trap? I cant see how $400 wont be revisited before $300 falls, but I said $355 or so was a bounce point yesterday and yet here we are.

No one has been able to present any rational clues on this.
I think the economy is so bad there is no disposable income left over to put into BTC, even it people wanted to buy.
Just my .0001BTC.

A couple of hours ago the bid/ask ratio looked like we could stage a stealthy climb back but (yet again) the ask side just fills up.  Resistance is futile overwhelming.

You can understand why there are so many conspiracy theories; indeed, I'm thinking the best investment option is shares in...

Yeah, good luck with that tin foil avenue...      It may go over well for halloween, though, and then can also be used for baking during thanksgiving and Christmas.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nrd525]

Are the deposits on circle are holded in BTC or fiat?

depends what you deposit i guess.

My English is lacking, hm?

Another trial:

I hold BTC or Fiat on a circle Account? You know what I mean? I guess BTC, but want to be sure.

it is my understanding that circle accounts can hold BTC or Fiat(of any color), and you are free to switch back and forth at anytime, I'm guessing they won't let you do bitcoin trading with this account... its probably part of their policy that it the service should not be used to day trade bitcoin.

I don't want to trade, I only want to send a medium amount of Bitcoins to my Circle Account. It irritates me that there are coming up messages like "you received xxxx.xx $ and not xx BTC. So it's only a reference value in USD and in conclusion nothing more than another form of a Bitcoin wallet or are they converting BTC to USD on entrance?

i have no idea how they balance their books.

but yes the site will always display your balance in $ terms, they feel its easier for new users to see their balance in their local currency.

must be depressing sending bitcoin over there today and watching your balance fall 9%  

Adam: 

From your various responses, it seems that you do NOT have a Circle account.  Surely, I am NO Circle expert because I only started using it at the end of September, and on October 1, I transferred $500 into my Circle account (which translated into 1.29263 BTC.  A I type, my previous $500 is valued at $441; however, the amount of BTC has NOT changed, only the dollar equivalency of my BTC holdings.   

I have NOT yet seen any option to hold my Circle account value in fiat rather than holding in BTC - possibly Circle could add that feature later - though I have my doubts that they are going to allow such (b/c the account would convert into a trading account). 

Actually, before I opened up my account with Circle, I was wondering how Circle was going to prevent people from trading with their zero fees policy, and it appears that their outrageously low weekly limits (starting at $2,500 per week non-immediate transfer or $500 per week immediate transfer); effectively make it difficult to engage in any kind of high quantity or high frequency trading, and their weekly limitations also make these accounts very small potatoes...   Even Coinbase has higher weekly and daily limitations than Circle....  My Coinbase allows for $1,000 per week immediate and $50,000 per week, and the Coinbase limits are constantly updating in order to cause less restrictions. 

Note that my Circle account is brand new and there is a disclaimer that my weekly limits may increase with the passage of time - supposedly as I become a more longer term account holder (we will see?).

Circle has fees. Their price is 0.5% above market.

[bitebits]

Really interesting. This one deserves quoting.

I belief (new)whales are building position before ETF, regulation,... so that they are ready for the next "pump"

Read this!
http://pastebin.com/cqM71kes

Even if you're a whaletrader(s) that believes bitcoin is doomed and a fad it's obvious  that there are enough bitcoin "cultists"  to warrant at least one more succesful bitcoin pump and dump so all the factors are met in this market to attempt this.

Now, not all these whales are non-bitcoin believers but they will take the oppertunity to pump the price  just in time to "dump" into the buyers that will enter the market when the Winkelvii ETF starts.

Bitcoin is oversold bigtime atm and it will spring up violently.

Perfect storm coming Soon™


additionally:

With bitcoin being such an immature ,new, unregulated market full off noob traders (read early miners) that are inexperienced in financial markets but have lot's off coins the price actions often seem to follow textbook technical analysis patterns so it's really easy to exploit this as an experienced hedge fund manager, forex veteran,...

Combine this with the fact that bitcoin is really in it's venture capitalist fase( huge price swings) before IPO if you would compare it with a "normal" company and compare bitcoin to a share.



And we have the reason why bitcoin is so extreme volatile.

VC investors are used to these swings but the public isn't as the public normally only sees the price of a share after IPO and thus big adoption wich means less volatility.

[JayJuanGee]

Are the deposits on circle are holded in BTC or fiat?

depends what you deposit i guess.

My English is lacking, hm?

Another trial:

I hold BTC or Fiat on a circle Account? You know what I mean? I guess BTC, but want to be sure.

it is my understanding that circle accounts can hold BTC or Fiat(of any color), and you are free to switch back and forth at anytime, I'm guessing they won't let you do bitcoin trading with this account... its probably part of their policy that it the service should not be used to day trade bitcoin.

I don't want to trade, I only want to send a medium amount of Bitcoins to my Circle Account. It irritates me that there are coming up messages like "you received xxxx.xx $ and not xx BTC. So it's only a reference value in USD and in conclusion nothing more than another form of a Bitcoin wallet or are they converting BTC to USD on entrance?

i have no idea how they balance their books.

but yes the site will always display your balance in $ terms, they feel its easier for new users to see their balance in their local currency.

must be depressing sending bitcoin over there today and watching your balance fall 9%  

Adam: 

From your various responses, it seems that you do NOT have a Circle account.  Surely, I am NO Circle expert because I only started using it at the end of September, and on October 1, I transferred $500 into my Circle account (which translated into 1.29263 BTC.  A I type, my previous $500 is valued at $441; however, the amount of BTC has NOT changed, only the dollar equivalency of my BTC holdings.   

I have NOT yet seen any option to hold my Circle account value in fiat rather than holding in BTC - possibly Circle could add that feature later - though I have my doubts that they are going to allow such (b/c the account would convert into a trading account). 

Actually, before I opened up my account with Circle, I was wondering how Circle was going to prevent people from trading with their zero fees policy, and it appears that their outrageously low weekly limits (starting at $2,500 per week non-immediate transfer or $500 per week immediate transfer); effectively make it difficult to engage in any kind of high quantity or high frequency trading, and their weekly limitations also make these accounts very small potatoes...   Even Coinbase has higher weekly and daily limitations than Circle....  My Coinbase allows for $1,000 per week immediate and $50,000 per week, and the Coinbase limits are constantly updating in order to cause less restrictions. 

Note that my Circle account is brand new and there is a disclaimer that my weekly limits may increase with the passage of time - supposedly as I become a more longer term account holder (we will see?).

Circle has fees. Their price is 0.5% above market.

More or less I agree. 

I have NOT been involved with Circle long enough to really verify the exact dynamics; however, I did notice that the price difference (which really amount to the same thing as fees) were about .5% as you say higher than Coinbase, but also, I noticed that the Circle price does NOT seem to be as responsive to the BTC price movements in the market, either... so there may be times in which we are paying more of a difference in BTC prices than .5% because it seems very difficult to time our BTC purchases in accordance with the price that should be regularly fluctuating with the Bitstamp exchange price. 

On the other hand, it is fairly easy, on Coinbase, to see rapid fluctuations in the BTC price and thus attempt to coordinate BTC purchases with low downward price swings as they are occurring on Bitstamp.  Regarding sales of BTC, I have NOT yet attempted to sell through Circle, so I am NOT sure if Circle also stick us with an approximate .5% BTC price difference on the opposite end?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sidhujag]

circle is a pitstoo with bad valuation. When we price things in btc they will be insolvent

[JorgeStolfi]

What's interesting is days destroyed is basically at zero. All the coins being moved to exchanges to be sold are probably very new.

As I noted before,

(1) the BTC volume Vex transferred to/from the exchanges is almost certainly a very small fraction of the total transaction output volume Vtot in the blockchain  (600'000 BTC/day now).  Therefore, even if Vex includes a few thousand old coins per day, it will hardly affect the plot of bitcoin-days destroyed (2 to 25 million BTC-day per day).

(2) For the "bitcoin-days destroyed" formula, the age of the coin is when it was last moved, not when it was bought.  So if someone bought 10'000 coins in 2010, moved 2'000 of them to a hot wallet two months ago, and sent these to an exchange today,  there would be a lot bitcoin-days destroyed two months ago, but only 120'000 today, which will not show in the graph.

By the way, I didn't see an aswer to my question about the change-back outputs: are they excluded when the "bitcoin-days destroyed" is computed?

(I also don't know the guys how blockchain.info identify the change-back outputs to produce theEstimated Transaction Volume chart.  I tried asking in their "help" thread, but it seems that the person who created the charts was eaten by an alien giant ameboid blob, and they haven't noticed his disappearance yet.)

[JorgeStolfi]

New Poll:
Let Karpeles run Bitstamp?

If the Sunlot guys succeed in buying the remaining 200'000 BTC and the name of MtGOX for 1 BTC, I would not be surprised if they hire Mark to run the new exchange.  (Their PR guy on this forum did not answer when I asked whether they would "pardon" Mark, like they already "pardoned" Gay-Bouchery and McCaleb even before any investigation.)

[Sandia]

Everyone waiting to see if the Huobi wall at 2000 holds.
Hint: it won't.

[seljo]

[sidhujag]

Everyone waiting to see if the Huobi wall at 2000 holds.
Hint: it won't.

I think it will just cause u said it. Quote me plz