Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

So my funds finally went through this afternoon, and I missed out on the deals over the weekend, I'm still fairly happy with any price below 500 CAD...

but then I try to move my precious coins into my wallets and I get this?

https://twitter.com/CAVIRTEX/status/519226105035624448

I heard similar story at coinbase, I'm so cynical at this point  

Ouch.

That makes me want to think twice about the 20 coins I left at Virtex just in case I see a short-term daytrading opportunity or need to buy some CAD with minimal fees (but a total lack of anonymity).

Ever since I lost 50 coins to Gox (I had a ticket open for 5 months before they blew up) I've tried to avoid exchanges.

Buying off-exchange is faster, safer, easier and more reliable than any exchange. Yes, I pay a 5% fee over Virtex prices but when you take bank deposit and exchange trading fees into account, it's a bargain especially for smaller amounts and the anonymity is priceless.

[jaredboice]

I guess it just depends on what happens from this point on? 

Indeed.

My feeling is that true capitulation was achieved and while we may see one last dip below $300, the trend has turned.

Last night's 30k wall was an expensive way to slow what might have been a dramatic correction on reversal.

I feel strongly enough about this that I bought another 3 coins this morning despite having joked with some dude at Decentral on Saturday about having spent my weekly Bitcoin allowance on that day's 2 coin purchase.

Proud to say I was buying through that wall!

[YogoH]

I have feeling this will be our SR crash.  The brand new bitcoin is dead articles are a good sign this is reversal. Not to mention the huge demand for sub300 coins.

[rocks]

I guess it just depends on what happens from this point on? 

Indeed.

My feeling is that true capitulation was achieved and while we may see one last dip below $300, the trend has turned.

Last night's 30k wall was an expensive way to slow what might have been a dramatic correction on reversal.

I feel strongly enough about this that I bought another 3 coins this morning despite having joked with some dude at Decentral on Saturday about having spent my weekly Bitcoin allowance on that day's 2 coin purchase.

Well done.  Your timing to buy was great.

I am thankful I just convinced my more bearish husband to hold through this last drop.  He seems to get even more moody than I get when the price tanks and wants to sell at the worst times.  Then when the price rises he decides it great to buy more.  (granted, we have been lucky a time or two and bought at relative good times)  But we seriously need to work on not buying or selling based on emotions.   

Take you coins and divide them in half, then let each person do what they want with their own half.

If your husband is bearish or scared you can then just sit back and watch him sell his half, while you hold long term. In 5 or 10 or 15 years the gains on your half will be all yours and every time he comes to you for a piece of your retirement funds you can say I told you so. Well not verbally because that would be mean, but he will say it to himself.

Either that or tell him to grow a pair.

[nanobrain]

After yesterday this is all very humdrum.

[JimboToronto]

Proud to say I was buying through that wall!

Lucky you. I was cursing the fact that I had to wait until today to buy.

My neighborhood BTC ATM is not available on Sundays.

I still paid less than US$330 cash per anonymous coin including fees so I'm not complaining. Screw the nosy banks, corporations and foreign governments.

[JayJuanGee]

http://youtu.be/8cVlOWwsKgo?t=14m50s
Amir Taaki, goes ate shit thinks big on Keiser Report.

Anybody know where to buy that shirt? I need that shirt so bad.

he really has zero introspective abilities doesn't he...

he doesn't realise that no matter how passionate he is and how strong he feels about certain issues and ideas, legitimacy is important if you want to make impact and to have people listen to you. If you are going to purposely disregard the fact that people have programmed opinions and prejudices and not give a shit about how you come across because of that, you're just an idiot and you're shooting yourself in the foot and fucking with your big principles for the sake of very minor principles.... and everyone you work alongside and speak on behalf of.

as I type this he hasn't stopped... sounds like a high dude at a squat party

Watched until 17 min and he seemed level headed . Perhaps reference the time he becomes unruly for others

That guy is manic.

Diagnosed by Doctor Lyth

Seems like a normal and smart guy who is excited to talk about his various ideas and how technology is evolving (with his help) to offer some potential solutions to societal centralization and control issues.

[JayJuanGee]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/06/what-is-happening-to-bitcoin-right-now/

Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.

"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. They’re not experienced with handling this amount of money because they’ve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They don’t have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way that’s guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? They’ll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
That’s what I’d do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."

The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.

Pure speculation without any real basis in reality to conclude that was what was going on with that 30k btc selling.

[Torque]

Proud to say I was buying through that wall!

Lucky you. I was cursing the fact that I had to wait until today to buy.

My neighborhood BTC ATM is not available on Sundays.

I still paid less than US$330 cash per anonymous coin including fees so I'm not complaining. Screw the nosy banks, corporations and foreign governments.

Premature high-fives and victory laps, guys.  We could easily be right back at $300 in less than a week.  Sad, but true.

[adamstgBit]

http://youtu.be/8cVlOWwsKgo?t=14m50s
Amir Taaki, goes ate shit thinks big on Keiser Report.

Anybody know where to buy that shirt? I need that shirt so bad.

he really has zero introspective abilities doesn't he...

he doesn't realise that no matter how passionate he is and how strong he feels about certain issues and ideas, legitimacy is important if you want to make impact and to have people listen to you. If you are going to purposely disregard the fact that people have programmed opinions and prejudices and not give a shit about how you come across because of that, you're just an idiot and you're shooting yourself in the foot and fucking with your big principles for the sake of very minor principles.... and everyone you work alongside and speak on behalf of.

as I type this he hasn't stopped... sounds like a high dude at a squat party

Watched until 17 min and he seemed level headed . Perhaps reference the time he becomes unruly for others

That guy is manic.

Diagnosed by Doctor Lyth

Seems like a normal and smart guy who is excited to talk about his various ideas and how technology is evolving (with his help) to offer some potential solutions to societal centralization and control issues.

Amir, is anything but normal, young, smart, passionate,  has no respect for the status quo, wild ideas, he is a crazy one, and he's alright in my book.  i'd break my "not smoking any more pot rule" if i was given the chance to blaze with this nut bag 

[Torque]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/06/what-is-happening-to-bitcoin-right-now/

Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.

"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. They’re not experienced with handling this amount of money because they’ve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They don’t have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way that’s guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? They’ll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
That’s what I’d do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."

The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.

Pure speculation without any real basis in reality to conclude that was what was going on with that 30k btc selling.

I agree, and even an immature early adopter wouldn't have been so stupid not to sell much earlier in the downturn.  He had 10 solid months to do so.

[Adrian-x]

http://youtu.be/8cVlOWwsKgo?t=14m50s
Amir Taaki, goes ate shit thinks big on Keiser Report.

Wasn't he involved in the bitcoinica/intersango collapse?

Yes but his story checks out it's Peter Vessenes who has the shady story.
Also Mark Karpeles froze the unhacked funds - which Peter claimed, adding to friction between them.
Those funds are now part of the bankruptcy.

I some times wonder though, Amir pushing all this anonymity is helping the very person who destroyed his credibility.

[JimboToronto]

We could easily be right back at $300 in less than a week.  Sad, but true.

Indeed. I certainly have kept trying to hammer that fact home.

Despite that obvious fact, I can't help but feel that capitulation has been achieved, based on the last 2 days' volume, historical data and common sense.

Sub-$300? Perhaps. Sub-$250? Highly doubtful.

[YogoH]

I think this is long term bullish, someone with 30k bitcoin is now out of the market and many people got a piece. Anyone know if the distubution of wealth is getting better? I imagine it is.

[JayJuanGee]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/06/what-is-happening-to-bitcoin-right-now/

Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.

"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. They’re not experienced with handling this amount of money because they’ve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They don’t have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way that’s guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? They’ll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
That’s what I’d do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."

The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.

a guy who has been around this long, with that many Bitcoin knows better than to put up for sale his whole 30,000 thousand coins in one order. I don't care how lucky he is or inexperienced.

"Decided 300$ was their breaking point"

Yeah right. As if people usually wait until rock bottom price to divest of an asset they have lost confidence in.

When I turned 2k into 50k in the alt market I felt rich and literally dumped at 40% below market price because I wanted a new car.

If I had 10 mil, seriously I would not care how I sold it and even if I lost a couple of mil because I know I'd never see that money in my life anyway.

It is possible that could be some impulsive teenager, doubtful, but possible.

[Melbustus]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/06/what-is-happening-to-bitcoin-right-now/

Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.

"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. They’re not experienced with handling this amount of money because they’ve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They don’t have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way that’s guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? They’ll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
That’s what I’d do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."

The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.

Didn't he first put the wall up at $280, take it down for an hour or two, then put it back at $320? And it was getting nibbled at $320 too. Then it disappeared and came back at $300, where it was obviously got eaten until gone. I really don't understand why he moved it from $320 to $300 given that it was getting action at $320...*iff* he was (even poorly) rationally trying to price-maximize.

Obviously tossing up a single 30k wall doesn't make too much sense for someone who's primary objective was rationally selling that stash. But I can maybe buy the theory of an irrational/undisciplined/freaked-out holder *except* for the move from $320 to $300, since there was indeed stable action at $320.

The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction. He tried $280, but it was unstably crashing the price, so he tried $320. He got good interest there with a stable price, so he decided to see if he could do better and keep things stable at $300. Price pegged right up against the wall without crashing, so he stuck with it, and priced a bigger buy deal on OTC based on a stable price of $300. ...

Who knows... Not all players are rational, so it could be anything. Whatever; even the big trades are insignificant noise in the long run.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vuduchyld]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/06/what-is-happening-to-bitcoin-right-now/

Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.

"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. They’re not experienced with handling this amount of money because they’ve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They don’t have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way that’s guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? They’ll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
That’s what I’d do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."

The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.

Didn't he first put the wall up at $280, take it down for an hour or two, then put it back at $320? And it was getting nibbled at $320 too. Then it disappeared and came back at $300, where it was obviously got eaten until gone. I really don't understand why he moved it from $320 to $300 given that it was getting action at $320...*iff* he was (even poorly) rationally trying to price-maximize.

Obviously tossing up a single 30k wall doesn't make too much sense for someone who's primary objective was rationally selling that stash. But I can maybe buy the theory of an irrational/undisciplined/freaked-out holder *except* for the move from $320 to $300, since there was indeed stable action at $320.

The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction. He tried $280, but it was unstably crashing the price, so he tried $320. He got good interest there with a stable price, so he decided to see if he could do better and keep things stable at $300. Price pegged right up against the wall without crashing, so he stuck with it, and priced a bigger buy deal on OTC based on a stable price of $300. ...

Who knows... Not all players are rational, so it could be anything. Whatever; even the big trades are insignificant noise in the long run.

That is probably the best potentially rational explanation I've seen.

Of course, it's possible that it was not a rational act, but this is a damn good take.

[FNG]

$30 Million to blockchain.info
   http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/dealbook/2014/10/06/blockchain-is-latest-bitcoin-start-up-to-lure-big-investment/
 

[marcus_of_augustus]

The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction

This. I think you'll find the $300 ask was posted almost exactly at 01.00 UTC.

It's possible it was the target for a much larger deal that was going through or futures contract settlement time, perhaps even being targetted since July to have price at $300 on that day and time. Looked a lot like options expiry time manipulation often seen in the commodities markets.