Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wandererfromthenorth]

blitz is bullish now?

does anyone have a picture of a frozen over hell?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9093063#msg9093063

I do sometimes turn bullish, yes (and not always do I post about it). I'm just a little more cautious than the average guy here, and I like to buy when you guys bleed. No offense.

Yeah, except when you were making fun of the bears calling the 200s-300s when we were at 500-450...

[derpinheimer]

Wait, now you're suggesting you really had no intention of betting? Even if he did take you up on the 500BTC bet? Lol...

Ignore the troll.

[podyx]

Somehow, the fact that this topic explodes with train sounds and rocket pictures every time the price rises by $10, tells me the bear market is not quite over yet..

Which, by all means, does not mean no money can be made now. But I'm just saiyan.

People are excited because we might be close to the tipping point

[QuestionAuthority]

Wait, now you're suggesting you really had no intention of betting? Even if he did take you up on the 500BTC bet? Lol...

Of course, I'm not fucking crazy. That's like a quarter of everything I've collected for years. I just thought he was trying to scare off buyers and he called my bluff. Bravo! lol

[sidhujag]

Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was  something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.

Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.

Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.

/rant

I always believed that anyone sitting constantly watching this thread and trying to predict movement was playing with a lot of coin. It hardly seems worth it to me if your not.

I'm not watching this thread like you make it out to seem.. I came on here based on my analysis to provide what I thought was going to happen based on the charts I saw... which I check maybe once or twice a day. I genuinely am not trying to scare people off to sell or whatnot so I can buy cheaper I  try to say what I think the truth is. I hold coins and never sold 1 although my average buy in price is much lower.

That's exactly what I thought you were trying to do. Scare people off.

I know you thought that based on your reply to me and that's why I'm telling you that. Anyways no point to call people out with something you can't back up either... contrary to what you may think the market is not totally random.. although mathematicians claimed to have proven it so, I've been around long enough to see that they aren't... money management is HARDER than trying to predict direction which you can train to determine with an edge... and an edge of 1% is sufficient to make any amount of money you like over time, but the balls to put money where you mouth is harder than anything else.. so essentially if I get odds based on what I believe is the direction then why wouldn't I be prepared to bet on it? We can do a smaller amount if you would like.

[njcarlos]

Yeah, except when you were making fun of the bears calling the 200s-300s when we were at 500-450...

I used to get lambasted for even suggesting $300 by the bears. I never remember it being Blitz though. He always seemed cautious.

[Raystonn]

I think we can now see what happened.  Guys like this bought BTC off-exchange at the last exchange price, then used that BTC to short the market and get even better exchange prices for his purchases.  This continued until the $300 sell wall event, which was performed once the cash flow of off-exchange Bitcoins received were not enough to push the price any lower on exchanges.  Then they took a portion of their BTC holdings and created the high-volume bottom as a $300 sell wall to trigger the next bull market.  The cash proceeds from this event is now being used to apply buying pressure to fuel the rally and ignite the next bubble, which increases the value of the remaining BTC in his portfolio.

[njcarlos]

Wait, now you're suggesting you really had no intention of betting? Even if he did take you up on the 500BTC bet? Lol...

Of course, I'm not fucking crazy. That's like a quarter of everything I've collected for years. I just thought he was trying to scare off buyers and he called my bluff. Bravo! lol

Right. Except you could have said this from the beginning instead of waiting to be called out for playing the "oh that bet is too low for me" card.

P.S. Nobody believes you.

[NotLambchop]

Wait, now you're suggesting you really had no intention of betting? Even if he did take you up on the 500BTC bet? Lol...

Of course, I'm not fucking crazy. That's like a quarter of everything I've collected for years. I just thought he was trying to scare off buyers and he called my bluff. Bravo! lol

Typical permabull buffoon.

[QuestionAuthority]

Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was  something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.

Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.

Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.

/rant

I always believed that anyone sitting constantly watching this thread and trying to predict movement was playing with a lot of coin. It hardly seems worth it to me if your not.

I'm not watching this thread like you make it out to seem.. I came on here based on my analysis to provide what I thought was going to happen based on the charts I saw... which I check maybe once or twice a day. I genuinely am not trying to scare people off to sell or whatnot so I can buy cheaper I  try to say what I think the truth is. I hold coins and never sold 1 although my average buy in price is much lower.

That's exactly what I thought you were trying to do. Scare people off.

I know you thought that based on your reply to me and that's why I'm telling you that. Anyways no point to call people out with something you can't back up either... contrary to what you may think the market is not totally random.. although mathematicians claimed to have proven it so, I've been around long enough to see that they aren't... money management is HARDER than trying to predict direction which you can train to determine with an edge... and an edge of 1% is sufficient to make any amount of money you like over time, but the balls to put money where you mouth is harder than anything else.. so essentially if I get odds based on what I believe is the direction then why wouldn't I be prepared to bet on it? We can do a smaller amount if you would like.

I don't think it takes anything special to be a gambler. But all the negative - it's gonna drop really low is keeping it down. A lot of people read this silly thread and don't post and take the advice of people that really don't know what's going to happen.

[JorgeStolfi]

blitz is bullish now?

does anyone have a picture of a frozen over hell?

[octaft]

A lot of people read this silly thread and don't post and take the advice of people that really don't know what's going to happen.

You mean like the people who bought at $1000, or the dude who sold his house to buy at 650 or some shit?

[QuestionAuthority]

Wait, now you're suggesting you really had no intention of betting? Even if he did take you up on the 500BTC bet? Lol...

Of course, I'm not fucking crazy. That's like a quarter of everything I've collected for years. I just thought he was trying to scare off buyers and he called my bluff. Bravo! lol

Right. Except you could have said this from the beginning instead of waiting to be called out for playing the "oh that bet is too low for me" card.

P.S. Nobody believes you.

Doesn't matter no one should believe anything here. No one is predicting. They are guessing and sometimes their right and sometimes their wrong.

[sidhujag]

Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was  something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.

Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.

Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.

/rant

I always believed that anyone sitting constantly watching this thread and trying to predict movement was playing with a lot of coin. It hardly seems worth it to me if your not.

I'm not watching this thread like you make it out to seem.. I came on here based on my analysis to provide what I thought was going to happen based on the charts I saw... which I check maybe once or twice a day. I genuinely am not trying to scare people off to sell or whatnot so I can buy cheaper I  try to say what I think the truth is. I hold coins and never sold 1 although my average buy in price is much lower.

That's exactly what I thought you were trying to do. Scare people off.

I know you thought that based on your reply to me and that's why I'm telling you that. Anyways no point to call people out with something you can't back up either... contrary to what you may think the market is not totally random.. although mathematicians claimed to have proven it so, I've been around long enough to see that they aren't... money management is HARDER than trying to predict direction which you can train to determine with an edge... and an edge of 1% is sufficient to make any amount of money you like over time, but the balls to put money where you mouth is harder than anything else.. so essentially if I get odds based on what I believe is the direction then why wouldn't I be prepared to bet on it? We can do a smaller amount if you would like.

I don't think it takes anything special to be a gambler. But all the negative - it's gonna drop really low is keeping it down. A lot of people read this silly thread and don't post and take the advice of people that really don't know what's going to happen.

Oh it does take something special.. it takes atleast 10k hours just like any other profession. Anything less and you are just that.. a gambler not a trader/investor. Most ppl give up.... and I prefer long term valuations instead of trading because I don't have the time to devote to watch swing positions and be mentally prepared for shifting sentiment.

[QuestionAuthority]

I don't think it takes anything special to be a gambler. But all the negative - it's gonna drop really low is keeping it down. A lot of people read this silly thread and don't post and take the advice of people that really don't know what's going to happen.

You mean like the people who bought at $1000, or the dude who sold his house to buy at 650 or some shit?

No, they might believe like everyone that eventually it will be worth more and they can hold long enough but to do it for a few months, weeks or days is nuts.

[blade87]

It's all about FOMO now. People know the difference between paying $250 or $350 BTC if BTC going to reach new ATHs is negligible (and lets be real, with all the adoption and paypal integrating next year, it's not going die, lol). But if you keep waiting for $250 you may never even pull the trigger at $350 and just completely miss out, and be nothing more than another "I wish" story later down the line.

[oda.krell]

Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was  something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.

Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.

Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.

/rant

I always believed that anyone sitting constantly watching this thread and trying to predict movement was playing with a lot of coin. It hardly seems worth it to me if your not.

Then you didn't get my point, or I didn't make it clear enough:

The "old school" example of millionaire/billionaire bets (that I know of) are for sums as well that "aren't really worth it" for the people involved.

I always assumed they make those relatively modest bets because a) it doesn't look too outlandish to the general population, and b) it serves the purpose: "putting money where one's mouth is".

But, yes, if your main goal of a public bet is to make money with it, then high stakes are necessary I suppose.

[QuestionAuthority]

Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was  something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.

Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.

Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.

/rant

I always believed that anyone sitting constantly watching this thread and trying to predict movement was playing with a lot of coin. It hardly seems worth it to me if your not.

I'm not watching this thread like you make it out to seem.. I came on here based on my analysis to provide what I thought was going to happen based on the charts I saw... which I check maybe once or twice a day. I genuinely am not trying to scare people off to sell or whatnot so I can buy cheaper I  try to say what I think the truth is. I hold coins and never sold 1 although my average buy in price is much lower.

That's exactly what I thought you were trying to do. Scare people off.

I know you thought that based on your reply to me and that's why I'm telling you that. Anyways no point to call people out with something you can't back up either... contrary to what you may think the market is not totally random.. although mathematicians claimed to have proven it so, I've been around long enough to see that they aren't... money management is HARDER than trying to predict direction which you can train to determine with an edge... and an edge of 1% is sufficient to make any amount of money you like over time, but the balls to put money where you mouth is harder than anything else.. so essentially if I get odds based on what I believe is the direction then why wouldn't I be prepared to bet on it? We can do a smaller amount if you would like.

I don't think it takes anything special to be a gambler. But all the negative - it's gonna drop really low is keeping it down. A lot of people read this silly thread and don't post and take the advice of people that really don't know what's going to happen.

Oh it does take something special.. it takes atleast 10k hours just like any other profession. Anything less and you are just that.. a gambler not a trader/investor. Most ppl give up.... and I prefer long term valuations instead of trading because I don't have the time to devote to watch swing positions and be mentally prepared for shifting sentiment.

But they assume that the people posting here have and they can lose big time. I will assume that you have all the experience and degrees in trading and you are giving sound advise. What if I acted on it and sold everything waiting for this big drop than never happened? That's bad.

[octaft]

I don't think it takes anything special to be a gambler. But all the negative - it's gonna drop really low is keeping it down. A lot of people read this silly thread and don't post and take the advice of people that really don't know what's going to happen.

You mean like the people who bought at $1000, or the dude who sold his house to buy at 650 or some shit?

No, they might believe like everyone that eventually it will be worth more and they can hold long enough but to do it for a few months, weeks or days is nuts.

They might believe that. Then again, they may have just heard like 95% of people shouting "TO DA MOON!" and decided to (panic) buy based on that.

[njcarlos]

It's all about FOMO now. People know the difference between paying $250 or $350 BTC is going to reach new ATHs is negligible. But if you keep waiting for $250 you may never even pull the trigger at $350 and just completely miss out, and be nothing more than another "I wish" story later down the line.

Keep dreaming. There will be no such rally like last time. Not in the immediate future, at least (read immediate as 2-3 years). Enough people were exposed to the last run up and slaughter that the "FOMO" will be curbed by the "oh yeah, several thousand people lost their shirts last time, let's wait and see what happens" effect.