Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NotLambchop]

Edit:  When you consider the likely response of governments, which we all know are on the central bankers' leash, the "investment" starts looking even less sane.

If Governments had outright banned it we would probably be worth more than we are today. Instead people are waiting to hear.

w/e..distribution takes time. If you have no ability to envision the future, the future where bitcoin plays an integrall part..then maybe you should be spending this portion of your life elsewhere?

Your conviction in Bitcoin's worth increasing after being banned by governments... makes me a bit weary of taking you seriously.

[Hunyadi]

[NotLambchop]

...
assuming you invest in a currency of country which has a limited supply of money and you can be pretty sure that it will never be changed.

assume further that this country has the possibility to fill some niches in the global economy

you think it is insane to invest in the currency of this country?

If the currency is inflating @ 10% a year, and its dollar exchange rate has fallen by more than 50% in 2014?  Let's just say "not very smart."

the dollar exchange rate has increased by around 150 times in the last one and a half years - very smart investment

induction as an indicator over time is stupid.

you can argue that my assumptions are wrong or that the niche is very small but arguing over charts is beyond stupid

if these assumptions are true and the niche is big enough you can say that investing in this "currency" is sane.

Bitcoin's exchange rate has gone up infinitely over the past five years.  There once was a time when it was worth exactly nothing.  Extrapolating from that, your future profits should also be infinite.

If you wish to get back to reality, you may consider Bitcoin's performance in recent past.  Since December of 2013, the price has been steadily declining.

If your reasoning proves anything, it proves entirely too much.  It proves that any investment which did well in some distant past is bound to be profitable in the future.  Regardless of its recent performance.

I hope I do not need to dwell on the folly of such assumptions.

Re. "induction as an indicator over time": wat?

what I said is that you cannot take the price as an indicator of the quality of an investment - you cannot build a theory from observation if the observation is constantly changing (as the price or the chart of bitcoin).

So much for watching walls and all the TA silliness...  Sadder still, so much for the notions of price reflecting the market sentiment.

what you can do instead is build a set of assumptions and say if they are valid or not valid.

If price does not reflect worth now, assuming that it will in the future requires an irrational leap of faith.  If you like that logic stuff.

to be fair you need a point of reference - according to this http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1sowur/how_is_a_2600000000000_market_cap_for_btc_possible/

the market cap of gold is 8 trillion, the one of us bonds is 35 trillion - bitcoin at this point of time is 5 billion [I think most people do not realise how small this on a global scale].

so golds market cap is more than 1000 times higher than the one of bitcoin - I assume that bitcoin never catches up, but to assume that there is place to grow is definetely not insane.

at this point we do not know how big the niche of bitcoin in the financial will be and let us not end arguing about pascals wagers, but that the niche is potentially existent is reasonable.

But Pascal's wager is exactly the fallacy you're leaning on.  You are ignoring all recent price data (showing that demand for Bitcoin is declining) in favor of extrapolating from the potential upside.
By that logic, I should invest in any d00d who tells me he'll conquer the world.  The upside is limitless, the downside finite.

Here's the problem with your reasoning:  The likelihood of Bitcoin becoming world's major currency is slim enough to make me (and my Lizard Overlords) laugh.  If it does become a threat to the status quo, it will be banned--already talk in Russia of criminalizing it.  It won't vanish, but it certainly won't thrive.

[criptix]

the wealth of the 1% richest people is >110 trillion $. (btw this is much more then the poorest half of all people on this planet have)

so if 1% of the richest put 1% of their wealth in bitcoin we would have a market cap of >1,1 trillion $ just by being a store of value.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NotLambchop]

the wealth of the 1% richest people is >110 trillion $. (btw this is much more then the poorest half of all people on this planet have)

so if 1% of the richest put 1% of their wealth in bitcoin we would have a market cap of >1,1 trillion $ just by being a store of value.

If just half of the people on Earth send you a penny, you'd be a multimillionaire.  What's your point?

[Grafzep]

Yeah real estate is a really safe investment. No bubbles or wild speculating going on in any real estate market ever. I'm going to buy a house right now. How about this one. The razor wire in the back garden is cute.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-48145727.html

But, but that's more than a "castle" with a used Beemer outside.

Don't these people understand status?

[BTCat]

Tired of this range $300 -$600. When will we finally escape it.

Next ride $535 then $450 and hopefully gonna visit $700, could be a good christmas then.

[600watt]

Yeah real estate is a really safe investment. No bubbles or wild speculating going on in any real estate market ever. I'm going to buy a house right now. How about this one. The razor wire in the back garden is cute.

LOL Over a million bucks for that dump?

Being a millionaire aint what it used to be.

looks solid. 

[iram3130]

Tired of this range $300 -$600. When will we finally escape it.

Next ride $535 then $450 and hopefully gonna visit $700, could be a good christmas then.

It's a very big range. Not easy to break. we did broke the 300 range for some hours but recover very well from there.

[marvinrouge]

UP WE GO

[paul2000]

Partys all around me, but I'm just sittin here waiting for da 400

[macsga]

I'm back.

ETF ON NOVEMBER 14
INTERNET OF THINGS
HUOBI WALLS
CCMF!!!!!1

[iram3130]

UP WE GO

In weekends this movement looks really solid and on weekdays we will goin upwards towards 450.

[Davyd05]

I think everyone is expecting a coil pop to the end of the bear market. Lets just be calm and enjoy the weekend with popcorn in hand.

[macsga]

I think everyone is expecting a coil pop to the end of the bear market. Lets just be calm and enjoy the weekend with popcorn in hand.

You can keep your popcorn. I'll keep these.

[600watt]

I think everyone is expecting a coil pop to the end of the bear market. Lets just be calm and enjoy the weekend with popcorn in hand.

You can keep your popcorn. I'll keep these.

[img]http://www.mygreekdish.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Homemade-Pork-Gyros-with-Pita-bread1.jpg[/im

got the munchies here... don't post yummie stuff... 

[inca]

...
assuming you invest in a currency of country which has a limited supply of money and you can be pretty sure that it will never be changed.

assume further that this country has the possibility to fill some niches in the global economy

you think it is insane to invest in the currency of this country?

If the currency is inflating @ 10% a year, and its dollar exchange rate has fallen by more than 50% in 2014?  Let's just say "not very smart."

the dollar exchange rate has increased by around 150 times in the last one and a half years - very smart investment

induction as an indicator over time is stupid.

you can argue that my assumptions are wrong or that the niche is very small but arguing over charts is beyond stupid

if these assumptions are true and the niche is big enough you can say that investing in this "currency" is sane.

Bitcoin's exchange rate has gone up infinitely over the past five years.  There once was a time when it was worth exactly nothing.  Extrapolating from that, your future profits should also be infinite.

If you wish to get back to reality, you may consider Bitcoin's performance in recent past.  Since December of 2013, the price has been steadily declining.

If your reasoning proves anything, it proves entirely too much.  It proves that any investment which did well in some distant past is bound to be profitable in the future.  Regardless of its recent performance.

I hope I do not need to dwell on the folly of such assumptions.

Re. "induction as an indicator over time": wat?

what I said is that you cannot take the price as an indicator of the quality of an investment - you cannot build a theory from observation if the observation is constantly changing (as the price or the chart of bitcoin).

So much for watching walls and all the TA silliness...  Sadder still, so much for the notions of price reflecting the market sentiment.

what you can do instead is build a set of assumptions and say if they are valid or not valid.

If price does not reflect worth now, assuming that it will in the future requires an irrational leap of faith.  If you like that logic stuff.

to be fair you need a point of reference - according to this http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1sowur/how_is_a_2600000000000_market_cap_for_btc_possible/

the market cap of gold is 8 trillion, the one of us bonds is 35 trillion - bitcoin at this point of time is 5 billion [I think most people do not realise how small this on a global scale].

so golds market cap is more than 1000 times higher than the one of bitcoin - I assume that bitcoin never catches up, but to assume that there is place to grow is definetely not insane.

at this point we do not know how big the niche of bitcoin in the financial will be and let us not end arguing about pascals wagers, but that the niche is potentially existent is reasonable.

But Pascal's wager is exactly the fallacy you're leaning on.  You are ignoring all recent price data (showing that demand for Bitcoin is declining) in favor of extrapolating from the potential upside.
By that logic, I should invest in any d00d who tells me he'll conquer the world.  The upside is limitless, the downside finite.

Here's the problem with your reasoning:  The likelihood of Bitcoin becoming world's major currency is slim enough to make me (and my Lizard Overlords) laugh.  If it does become a threat to the status quo, it will be banned--already talk in Russia of criminalizing it.  It won't vanish, but it certainly won't thrive.

A couple of brief points. Firstly, sentiment reflects price, not the other way around.

Secondly, you seem very happy to post the chart from the recent ATH to now - I wonder why. Others, myself included prefer to quote the long term multi year log chart, or perhaps a chart from 275 upwards to now. Based on those charts bitcoin is in fact trending upwards.

Your argument against bitcoin rising to become a global reserve currency is a bit silly. Bitcoin doesn't need to be more than a tradeable digital asset and it can still move up two orders of magnitude easily in market cap valuation.

[macsga]

I think everyone is expecting a coil pop to the end of the bear market. Lets just be calm and enjoy the weekend with popcorn in hand.

You can keep your popcorn. I'll keep these.

[img]http://www.mygreekdish.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Homemade-Pork-Gyros-with-Pita-bread1.jpg[/im

got the munchies here... don't post yummie stuff...  

600watt: I'm gonna dcc some cholesterol at your way buddy, keep the channel open!

[Odalv]

I really do not understand why are you quoting every troll in this forum.