Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[janos666]

Shorts are down to 9k and we're still going down...not good

Bitstamp got really close to my short covering target while I slept (341.11) but Bitfinex didn't follow and now I am thinking about revising that number.
This seems to be one of those genuine dumps which usually result in a ~30% relative price drop (pre/post mean, not peak).
Last time the butcher was forced to leave but now it's back with full strength and wishes to penetrate the 300$ line again to deliver a big massacre.
According to the daily chart's indicators (MACD are crossing, StochRSI keeps going down while it's still far enough from zero), resistance seems to be futile.

However, my mind is still not ready to accept if Bitcoin can spend several days below 300$. I think it must break out from there fast (like it did last time) or fall even lower as the true "this game is officially over" panic sets in.

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[BBmmBB]

Ouch.  Are you bulls at least learning something from all this?

I'm learning to smell the tulips I guess

I'm learning to smell fear. Makes me want to buy.

  bbhaaaaaaaaa!!!!!

http://moblog.net/media/k/e/i/keithdesantis/sheeple-magazine-cover-junejuly-2011.jpg

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Why am I not surprised to still see sub-400.  This market is just ridiculous.  It seems apathy is setting in now, even with people who were once bulls.

I guess no one even cares to buy more now?

[Davyd05]

Why am I not surprised to still see sub-400.  This market is just ridiculous.  It seems apathy is setting in now, even with people who were once bulls.

I guess no one even cares to buy more now?

i've been buying on dips
double my target holdings in the bear market, as it at the least lowers my average buy in price.

[BBmmBB]

Why am I not surprised to still see sub-400.  This market is just ridiculous.  It seems apathy is setting in now, even with people who were once bulls.

I guess no one even cares to buy more now?

why buy most of the coins out are either stolen or tied to some scammer!..Wall Street wants nothing to do with this mess!  

[marcus_of_augustus]

Why am I not surprised to still see sub-400.  This market is just ridiculous.  It seems apathy is setting in now, even with people who were once bulls.

I guess no one even cares to buy more now?

why buy most of the coins out are either stolen or tied to some scammer!..Wall Street wants nothing to do with this mess!  

... that's why they call it filthy lucre, there is no such thing as "clean money", it's a utopian fiction sold to you by your totalitarian masters.

btw, Wall St. are as happy as pigs in shite when it comes to filthy money.

[BBmmBB]

Why am I not surprised to still see sub-400.  This market is just ridiculous.  It seems apathy is setting in now, even with people who were once bulls.

I guess no one even cares to buy more now?

why buy most of the coins out are either stolen or tied to some scammer!..Wall Street wants nothing to do with this mess!  

... that's why they call it filthy lucre, there is no such thing as "clean money", it's a utopian fiction sold to you by your totalitarian masters.

btw, Wall St. are as happy as pigs in shite when it comes to filthy money.

BTC is out of control and most people in the paper game still can't wrap their heads around it..and the people who actually do understand the blockchain , smart property stuff etc. are so greedy and egotistical it's useless even trying to communicate with them! bitcoin now appears to be nothing more than digital gamblers' virtual currency fueled by ponzi schemes and aggressive get rich quick hoopla  ..see you at $100...zzz

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[rebuilder]

On topic: remainder of 353.x wall pulled, moved to 360?

[MrPiggles]

How much money do you make shorting?

Can someone explain it to me?

Like say you have 1 coin.

You short at $390

What does it need to hit/how do you profit?

If it goes to $350 what would you make on that?


ELI5 please someone who knows more than I do

[BitChick]

Why am I not surprised to still see sub-400.  This market is just ridiculous.  It seems apathy is setting in now, even with people who were once bulls.

I guess no one even cares to buy more now?

why buy most of the coins out are either stolen or tied to some scammer!..Wall Street wants nothing to do with this mess!  

People still go to Vegas and gamble even though the odds are against them.  I think people, even Wall Street, will go wherever there is a opportunity to make money.  Once the price really starts to swing back into a bull market the money will flow in.  I think it will have to move back into the 600's or so though for the real rally to begin.  It is just a waiting game at this point.  

[BBmmBB]

How much money do you make shorting?

Can someone explain it to me?

Like say you have 1 coin.

You short at $390

What does it need to hit/how do you profit?

If it goes to $350 what would you make on that?


ELI5 please someone who knows more than I do

10% is huge move for a days trading.... if you have say 1000 BTC leveraged x7 THATS LIKE 700BTC !! ;-)

[BBmmBB]

Why am I not surprised to still see sub-400.  This market is just ridiculous.  It seems apathy is setting in now, even with people who were once bulls.

I guess no one even cares to buy more now?

why buy most of the coins out are either stolen or tied to some scammer!..Wall Street wants nothing to do with this mess!  

People still go to Vegas and gamble even though the odds are against them.  I think people, even Wall Street, will go wherever there is a opportunity to make money.  Once the price really starts to swing back into a bull market the money will flow in.  I think it will have to be move back into the 600's or so though for the real rally to begin.  It is just a waiting game at this point. 

you must be smoking something good!...technically $250 looks like nice support..if it breaks below $250 ...$150 will have to hold !:)

[rebuilder]

How much money do you make shorting?

Can someone explain it to me?

Like say you have 1 coin.

You short at $390

What does it need to hit/how do you profit?

If it goes to $350 what would you make on that?


ELI5 please someone who knows more than I do

Assuming no leverage, it's like you sold at 390 and bought back in at 350 - you profit 40 usd minus any fees.

If you're on a service that allows leveraged trading, you can post 1 btc (or a sum of fiat) as collateral to borrow more btc that you then sell to open a short position. Your potential profit is increased by the amount of leverage you're using - say 2x - but so are your potential losses, and you're now at risk of getting a margin call. This is when your position is forced to close before you're so far in the red your collateral is no longer sufficient to cover the amount you have borrowed against it.

[BitChick]

Why am I not surprised to still see sub-400.  This market is just ridiculous.  It seems apathy is setting in now, even with people who were once bulls.

I guess no one even cares to buy more now?

why buy most of the coins out are either stolen or tied to some scammer!..Wall Street wants nothing to do with this mess!  

People still go to Vegas and gamble even though the odds are against them.  I think people, even Wall Street, will go wherever there is a opportunity to make money.  Once the price really starts to swing back into a bull market the money will flow in.  I think it will have to be move back into the 600's or so though for the real rally to begin.  It is just a waiting game at this point. 

you must be smoking something good!...technically $250 looks like nice support..if it breaks below $250 ...$150 will have to hold !:)

You must not know me very well.  I thought it was well known I don't smoke or drink.  I am rightly accused of believing in miracles though!

[MrPiggles]

How much money do you make shorting?

Can someone explain it to me?

Like say you have 1 coin.

You short at $390

What does it need to hit/how do you profit?

If it goes to $350 what would you make on that?


ELI5 please someone who knows more than I do

10% is huge move for a days trading.... if you have say 1000 BTC leveraged x7 THATS LIKE 700BTC !! ;-)

So buy 20,000 btc @ $390 = $7.8m

open short positions on 20,000 btc

Sell 5000 btc, cause price drop x 10%

Profit = 2000 btc? $780,000

Your loss on the 5000 btc = 10% $195,000

Total profit = $585k

Am I bein a tard here or is it really that simple to short stuff

[rebuilder]

Mr. Piggles: You don't buy BTC first. You borrow some, promising to pay it back later and then sell the btc you borrowed. If the price moves down, you profit. If it goes up, it will cost you more to buy the BTC you need to repay than you got from selling them, so you lose money.

[BBmmBB]

Why am I not surprised to still see sub-400.  This market is just ridiculous.  It seems apathy is setting in now, even with people who were once bulls.

I guess no one even cares to buy more now?

why buy most of the coins out are either stolen or tied to some scammer!..Wall Street wants nothing to do with this mess!  

People still go to Vegas and gamble even though the odds are against them.  I think people, even Wall Street, will go wherever there is a opportunity to make money.  Once the price really starts to swing back into a bull market the money will flow in.  I think it will have to be move back into the 600's or so though for the real rally to begin.  It is just a waiting game at this point. 

you must be smoking something good!...technically $250 looks like nice support..if it breaks below $250 ...$150 will have to hold !:)

You must not know me very well.  I thought it was well known I don't smoke or drink.  I am rightly accused of believing in miracles though!

apple pay ... i'm getting the tattoo ;-)  lolzzz

[JorgeStolfi]

..see you at $100...

The last big bubble lifted the price from ~120$ in early Oct/2013 to ~800$ in Jan/2014.  The fall from ~800$ in Jan/2014 to the present ~350$ can only be due to the undoing of that bubble (and to the undoing of the May/2014 "pseudo-bubble").

I cannot see any plausible explanation for the Oct-Nov/2013 bubble other than the opening of the mainland Chinese market.  The undoing of that bubble then must be due to the loss of that market.  According to a few articles, the Chinese bitcoin market consists mainly of amateur and semi-professional speculators who, lacking access to the stock market, were used to day-trading other bizarre commodities.

So, if those traders pull completely out of the market, the May/2014 pseudo-bubble is completely undone, and no new market opens, the price should eventually go back to ~120$.

Draw a straight line on the Bitstamp price chart, in log scale, from the prices at Jan/2014 (~800$) and at May 19, 2014 (~400$). Extrapolation of that line suggests that the price (minus the May pseudo-bubble) will reach ~120$ by the end of the year.

I suspect that the Chinese were responsible also for the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble, that lifted the price from ~12$ to ~120$.  Specifically, the start of that bubble seems to coincide with the hiring of Bobby Lee by BTC-China in Shanghai.  In that case, if that market closes too, so that the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble gets undone, the price could go down again to 10--20$.

Needless to say, these extrapolations will be moot if another market opens (COIN? Argentina? Africa?).