Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[samsonn25]

Its not that simple.

1.Assuming a broker would let you "box" the position and let you go long and short at the same time, the 20000 btc are basincally in a neutral position, one up and the other down.

What you propose is to basically sell 5000 of the 20000 btc long position to make the price go down.  If they dont let you move the neutral position then you need additional funds to short the 5000 btc.

If price drops 10% in theory, the 20000 btc long will lose 10% but the 20000 btc short will gain 10%, essentially neutral,

Basically the trade is to short 5000 btc. and hope this creates a panic that you can buy back lower.

2, If they let you leverage with additional funds to be able to sell 5000 of the 20000 long position while you have 20000 short position, this could mean a profit of 10% on the 20000 btc and a loss 0f 10% on the 15000 remaining long position.   So thats 5000 x 39 = 195,000 potentially, less in reality because price will down down as you short.  Net result is the same at whatever price btc settles in at, you would stil be long 15000 btc and short 20000 btc.  If price moves up you are exposed to a short position of 5000 btc which you have to buy back eventually.

[rebuilder]

..see you at $100...

The last big bubble lifted the price from ~120$ in early Oct/2013 to ~800$ in Jan/2014.  The fall from ~800$ in Jan/2014 to the present ~350$ can only be due to the undoing of that bubble (and to the undoing of the May/2014 "pseudo-bubble").

I cannot see any plausible explanation for the Oct-Nov/2013 bubble other than the opening of the mainland Chinese market.  The undoing of that bubble then must be due to the loss of that market.  According to a few articles, the Chinese bitcoin market consists mainly of amateur and semi-professional speculators who, lacking access to the stock market, were used to day-trading other bizarre commodities.

So, if those traders pull completely out of the market, the May/2014 pseudo-bubble is completely undone, and no new market opens, the price should eventually go back to ~120$.

Draw a straight line on the Bitstamp price chart, in log scale, from the prices at Jan/2014 (~800$) and at May 19, 2014 (~400$). Extrapolation of that line suggests that the price (minus the May pseudo-bubble) will reach ~120$ by the end of the year.

I suspect that the Chinese were responsible also for the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble, that lifted the price from ~12$ to ~120$.  Specifically, the start of that bubble seems to coincide with the hiring of Bobby Lee by BTC-China in Shanghai.  In that case, if that market closes too, so that the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble gets undone, the price could go down again to 10--20$.

Needless to say, these extrapolations will be moot if another market opens (COIN? Argentina? Africa?).

What about growth in existing markets?

[JorgeStolfi]

What about growth in existing markets?

If we look at previous bubbles, after a month or two of roughly exponential growth, and another month or so of oscillations, the price usually settled down to a nearly constant value.  I take that as a sign that the markets responsible for those bubbles were saturated and stopped growing.  Maybe they started to grow again this year, but I have not seen any real evidence of that.  (Neither the number of stores that "acecpt bitcoin", nor the blockchain traffic, nor the venture capital investments imply growth of any market.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[rebuilder]

(Neither the number of stores that "acecpt bitcoin", nor the blockchain traffic, nor the venture capital investments imply growth of any market.)

What would imply growth?

[MrPiggles]

I suspect that the Chinese were responsible also for the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble, that lifted the price from ~12$ to ~120$.  Specifically, the start of that bubble seems to coincide with the hiring of Bobby Lee by BTC-China in Shanghai.  In that case, if that market closes too, so that the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble gets undone, the price could go down again to 10--20$.

At least the other trolls realise they're trolls for the most part, I think you really think you're an academic

[JorgeStolfi]

(Neither the number of stores that "accept bitcoin", nor the blockchain traffic, nor the venture capital investments imply growth of any market.)

What would imply growth?

Good question.

As it has been discussed here, most stores that "accept bitcoin" are attractive mainly to people who already own bitcoins, and probably attract few if any new users. 

Blockchain traffic does not evolve in the way one would expect from increasing use.

Most investment has not been in bitcoin itself, but in ventures like exchanges, funds, payment processors, and the like --- services that will make money out of bitcoin users.

I do not know where to get reliable data on bitcoin usage.

[JorgeStolfi]

I suspect that the Chinese were responsible also for the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble, that lifted the price from ~12$ to ~120$.  Specifically, the start of that bubble seems to coincide with the hiring of Bobby Lee by BTC-China in Shanghai.  In that case, if that market closes too, so that the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble gets undone, the price could go down again to 10--20$.

At least the other trolls realise they're trolls for the most part, I think you really think you're an academic

Please state your understanding of what is going on, then.

[noobtrader]

How much money do you make shorting?

Can someone explain it to me?

Like say you have 1 coin.

You short at $390

What does it need to hit/how do you profit?

If it goes to $350 what would you make on that?


ELI5 please someone who knows more than I do

10% is huge move for a days trading.... if you have say 1000 BTC leveraged x7 THATS LIKE 700BTC !! ;-)

So buy 20,000 btc @ $390 = $7.8m

open short positions on 20,000 btc

Sell 5000 btc, cause price drop x 10%

Profit = 2000 btc? $780,000

Your loss on the 5000 btc = 10% $195,000

Total profit = $585k

Am I bein a tard here or is it really that simple to short stuff

sell swap 1:3 so you can sell 60.000 btc, triple the profit there. less the trading fee, it seem legit.

[MrPiggles]

Please state your understanding of what is going on, then.

You're always making bold assertions. "I assume this" "I suspect this"

I don't know, but I don't make shit up all the time like you do.

I do not know where to get reliable data on bitcoin usage.

Exactly, so shut the fuck up

[noobtrader]

bear attack 

[Room101]

What about growth in existing markets?

If we look at previous bubbles, after a month or two of roughly exponential growth, and another month or so of oscillations, the price usually settled down to a nearly constant value.  I take that as a sign that the markets responsible for those bubbles were saturated and stopped growing.  Maybe they started to grow again this year, but I have not seen any real evidence of that.  (Neither the number of stores that "acecpt bitcoin", nor the blockchain traffic, nor the venture capital investments imply growth of any market.)

All the charts on blockchain show very steady growth, transactional volume is up 300% since this time last year. Number of transactions is all time high, as is daily wallets used

[noobtrader]

in my noob opinion, all this whale surely be big miner selling cheap coin because their miner already roi and they can sell at any price above electricity and still profit.  why they sell cheap, so that new miner are discouraged and keep them in power literally. this is a race to the fair price, which is their price for bitcoin. as new miner are discouraged they assume that difficulty will soon be lower further increase their profit.

[BBmmBB]

..see you at $100...

The last big bubble lifted the price from ~120$ in early Oct/2013 to ~800$ in Jan/2014.  The fall from ~800$ in Jan/2014 to the present ~350$ can only be due to the undoing of that bubble (and to the undoing of the May/2014 "pseudo-bubble").

I cannot see any plausible explanation for the Oct-Nov/2013 bubble other than the opening of the mainland Chinese market.  The undoing of that bubble then must be due to the loss of that market.  According to a few articles, the Chinese bitcoin market consists mainly of amateur and semi-professional speculators who, lacking access to the stock market, were used to day-trading other bizarre commodities.

So, if those traders pull completely out of the market, the May/2014 pseudo-bubble is completely undone, and no new market opens, the price should eventually go back to ~120$.

Draw a straight line on the Bitstamp price chart, in log scale, from the prices at Jan/2014 (~800$) and at May 19, 2014 (~400$). Extrapolation of that line suggests that the price (minus the May pseudo-bubble) will reach ~120$ by the end of the year.

I suspect that the Chinese were responsible also for the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble, that lifted the price from ~12$ to ~120$.  Specifically, the start of that bubble seems to coincide with the hiring of Bobby Lee by BTC-China in Shanghai.  In that case, if that market closes too, so that the Jan-Apr/2013 bubble gets undone, the price could go down again to 10--20$.

Needless to say, these extrapolations will be moot if another market opens (COIN? Argentina? Africa?).

i know:  a new market is in order! 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nanobrain]

What about growth in existing markets?

If we look at previous bubbles, after a month or two of roughly exponential growth, and another month or so of oscillations, the price usually settled down to a nearly constant value.  I take that as a sign that the markets responsible for those bubbles were saturated and stopped growing.  Maybe they started to grow again this year, but I have not seen any real evidence of that.  (Neither the number of stores that "acecpt bitcoin", nor the blockchain traffic, nor the venture capital investments imply growth of any market.)

All the charts on blockchain show very steady growth, transactional volume is up 300% since this time last year. Number of transactions is all time high, as is daily wallets used

The problem with these numbers is there is no way to tell if they are 'unique'; as I'm sure Jorge will comment, much of this transactional volume could be down to a small number of users moving a large number of coins between wallets, either for genuine reasons or to deliberately inflate the transactional 'health' of BTC.

I personally thought we had turned a corner a few weeks back but the demand for BTC is clearly not there; given the disparity between the price and the transaction volume, Jorge's hypothesis that these numbers are at best misleading, at worst fabricated does appear justified.

[cbeast]

Schisms. This is why there can be only one Bitcoin Temple. Otherwise there's gods everywhere.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[touhonoob]

8 days left before commenting period for Russian law against Bitcoin.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2k6aiq/20141024_8_days_left_before_commenting_period_for/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation