Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[noobtrader]

market moves again 

[oda.krell]

@Blitz: I'll admit, you've been around much longer than me, so my impressions of the early days of BTC trading are pretty vague. Could be that you're right about the percentages being (roughly) the same.

I will say that much: the almost linear, nearly uninterrupted decline from the $32 peak to the $2 double bottom in 2011 looks almost comical by today's standards. Not a single big mean reversion trade. My point is: looking at the 2011 decline from $32, I simply can't imagine there was any substantial capital in the hands of what you'd call 'traders', otherwise there would have been the occasional pause when a major resistance was being hit and traders, on average, closed a short to see where price is heading.

[Tzupy]

2014-06-05: 660 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-04-05:

2012-11-05:   10 USD/BTC
2013-11-05: 244 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-11-05:      

 

Should we fit a parabola through those three points, and see what it predicts? 

I'd like to see a parabola fit through these 3 points, my brain says it can't be done with a parabola.
More likely to fit a Gaussian distribution.

A gaussian is just a parabola in log scale.  So, here is the result, in linear and log scale:


 

(Seriously now: these are NOT my predictions.  The point of these plots is only to show that the choice of the mathematica model (straight line or parabola, linear or log scale, ...) determines the conclusion about future prices, even before the fitting.  In particular, by choosing a straight line, one will necessarily conclude that there "must" be another huge bubble "soon".)

Thank you Mr. Stolfi. However unlikely these seem, if 1 year from now the price will be between 250$ and 300$, this would be a chilling bearish scenario.

[ShroomsKit]

Pump is over. Now we get the dumps back to 325.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Pump is over. Now we get the dumps back to 325.

Do you get paid to be a negative **** on here?

[N12]

Good point oda and something I've observed as well. I don't have a good explanation (but I'm sure the EWers do ), it may be just random too.

Oh good, the FUD shroom is back.

I will leave this place soon. Bitcoin is dead, it's only down from here and i sold everything i got quite a while ago so there is nothing for me here anymore.
I tried to help the few delusional bulls who just won't give up but they don't appreciate my warnings very much. Ah well, your money. I don't care really.
I'll come back every 50 dollar drop for some entertainment. So long and thanks for buying my coins at 400. Poor schmucks.

Good luck with your pump and dump coin.

I feel sorry for all the idiots who sold at these ridiculous prices and i will laugh at all the bears who will get caught in trap after trap the coming weeks.

The only winners are the holders (like me) and the people who pick up the last cheap coins while they can.

We're going up and it's confirmed!

[mmitech]

I disagree with you guys, I don't think percentage wise that anything much has changed in the political vs. trading camps. Look how many deluded (let's say non-pragmatic) people there are on r/bitcoin and bitcointalk too. I've known speculators from 2010, 2011, and some of them top notch, having had experience from other markets. As an example, I believe Bitcoin was mentioned in Prechter's newsletter in 2010 and that drew some chartists.

Also, there's often a large overlap between the two camps, it really isn't clear cut. You also need to keep in mind that some people with dollar signs in front of their eyes will talk the feel good (blah blah the unbanked) rhetoric but that's only to shill.

What I would agree with though is that, inevitably, it's gone downhill with the quality of discourse as the price rose and the Bitcoin cult grew over the years, whether this be speculative (just look at the retards on r/bitcoinmarkets, at least what they've become today) or political/economical. A small price to pay.

Well said, the quality of discussion went down since the April 2013 bubble, and the nonobjective tards made the Bitcoin cult bigger, extreme more delusional, I enjoyed hearing/talking/going to Bitcoin events a couple of years ago, but nowadays some (if not most) events are just the gathering of the hopeless cultists and  quick get rich bitcoiners...


back to the subject, interesting bump ( from $320 +6.3%).... I think that action is going to happen soon (we will see the real bottom), the next couple of weeks are critical.

[UnDerDoG81]

Wohooo CCMF!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BTC.sx]

Hey guys sorry if this is off topic but does anyone know, are you no longer allowed to change your leverage rate on bitfinex?

I thought they allowed up to 2.5x leverage, but I'm not seeing anywhere to adjust leverage settings.

so..

what happend ?
short squezzed

afaik, you set your leverage rate when you register

I do recall setting my leverage settings when I registered. Odd that they don't allow you to adjust it later.

I suppose I will just have to make a new account if I want to change my leverage settings then  

They have one leverage settings for all users now.

Interesting, thanks for the info. When did they change this?

I assume it's 1:1 for everyone?

Hi everyone

You will be pleased to hear that at http://btc.sx you can trade Bitcoin with leverage. We have recently integrated Bitfinex into our platform, which you can read about in CoinDesk:
http://www.coindesk.com/exchange-roundup-traders-gain-tools-bank-woes-justcoin/

You can trade with 2:1, 5:1 or 10:1 leverage - and you can change this for each position you enter.  Trades can also be placed on Bitstamp and itBit.

Happy trading!

[GreekBitcoin]

@Blitz: I'll admit, you've been around much longer than me, so my impressions of the early days of BTC trading are pretty vague. Could be that you're right about the percentages being (roughly) the same.

I will say that much: the almost linear, nearly uninterrupted decline from the $32 peak to the $2 double bottom in 2011 looks almost comical by today's standards. Not a single big mean reversion trade. My point is: looking at the 2011 decline from $32, I simply can't imagine there was any substantial capital in the hands of what you'd call 'traders', otherwise there would have been the occasional pause when a major resistance was being hit and traders, on average, closed a short to see where price is heading.

It was even more comical when it reached negative numbers (i remember seeing negative values back then but i cant find any picture right now) on mtgox back then and people who panicked and sold for almost zero wanted to reset all trades of the day.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NotLambchop]

Very volume.

[SnokkomBTC]

Very volume.

waiting voor short squeeze.

[inca]

I disagree with you guys, I don't think percentage wise that anything much has changed in the political vs. trading camps. Look how many deluded (let's say non-pragmatic) people there are on r/bitcoin and bitcointalk too. I've known speculators from 2010, 2011, and some of them top notch, having had experience from other markets. As an example, I believe Bitcoin was mentioned in Prechter's newsletter in 2010 and that drew some chartists.

Also, there's often a large overlap between the two camps, it really isn't clear cut. You also need to keep in mind that some people with dollar signs in front of their eyes will talk the feel good (blah blah the unbanked) rhetoric but that's only to shill.

What I would agree with though is that, inevitably, it's gone downhill with the quality of discourse as the price rose and the Bitcoin cult grew over the years, whether this be speculative (just look at the retards on r/bitcoinmarkets, at least what they've become today) or political/economical. A small price to pay.

Well said, the quality of discussion went down since the April 2013 bubble, and the nonobjective tards made the Bitcoin cult bigger, extreme more delusional, I enjoyed hearing/talking/going to Bitcoin events a couple of years ago, but nowadays some (if not most) events are just the gathering of the hopeless cultists and  quick get rich bitcoiners...


back to the subject, interesting bump ( from $320 +6.3%).... I think that action is going to happen soon (we will see the real bottom), the next couple of weeks are critical.

How are the shorts going?

[David M]

My point is: looking at the 2011 decline from $32, I simply can't imagine there was any substantial capital in the hands of what you'd call 'traders', otherwise there would have been the occasional pause when a major resistance was being hit and traders, on average, closed a short to see where price is heading.

I entered bitcoin (first buy of DCA strategy) at $2 dollars before the run up to $32.  
IMO, the subsequent bear market was not being traded down.  It was a/few large early adopter cashing out.  

There was no "shorting" as the future of Bitcoin was a massive gamble and the idea to sell your bitcoin to then buy back later was considered insane as there was a real possibility of it going down in flames.

[oda.krell]

Very volume.

Huh. Sure you're looking at the right thing?






Between this (new Chinese volume peak, even higher than volume at capitulation bottom), the major Bitfinex market buys yesterday, and the ramping up of Bitstamp's bid/ask I already mentioned, I'd be seriously surprised if we don't make at least an attempt to get back to 380 within the next 10 days.

[molecular]

My point is: looking at the 2011 decline from $32, I simply can't imagine there was any substantial capital in the hands of what you'd call 'traders', otherwise there would have been the occasional pause when a major resistance was being hit and traders, on average, closed a short to see where price is heading.

I entered bitcoin (first buy of DCA strategy) at $2 dollars before the run up to $32.  
IMO, the subsequent bear market was not being traded down.  It was a/few large early adopter cashing out.  

There was no "shorting" as the future of Bitcoin was a massive gamble and the idea to sell your bitcoin to then buy back later was considered insane as there was a real possibility of it going down in flames.

I remember there was lots of shorting (on borrowed btc) on bitcoinica in late 2011. Imo it was a large part of what brought the price down to $2.xx. The gox hack and media did the largest part, though.

[mmitech]

I disagree with you guys, I don't think percentage wise that anything much has changed in the political vs. trading camps. Look how many deluded (let's say non-pragmatic) people there are on r/bitcoin and bitcointalk too. I've known speculators from 2010, 2011, and some of them top notch, having had experience from other markets. As an example, I believe Bitcoin was mentioned in Prechter's newsletter in 2010 and that drew some chartists.

Also, there's often a large overlap between the two camps, it really isn't clear cut. You also need to keep in mind that some people with dollar signs in front of their eyes will talk the feel good (blah blah the unbanked) rhetoric but that's only to shill.

What I would agree with though is that, inevitably, it's gone downhill with the quality of discourse as the price rose and the Bitcoin cult grew over the years, whether this be speculative (just look at the retards on r/bitcoinmarkets, at least what they've become today) or political/economical. A small price to pay.

Well said, the quality of discussion went down since the April 2013 bubble, and the nonobjective tards made the Bitcoin cult bigger, extreme more delusional, I enjoyed hearing/talking/going to Bitcoin events a couple of years ago, but nowadays some (if not most) events are just the gathering of the hopeless cultists and  quick get rich bitcoiners...


back to the subject, interesting bump ( from $320 +6.3%).... I think that action is going to happen soon (we will see the real bottom), the next couple of weeks are critical.

How are the shorts going?

Never shorted a thing in my life, keep trying....troll

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation