Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[MrPiggles]

Yes, I understand you were being sarcastic, but I'm not. The price cannot simply go up (or down) forever, and when 95% of people are bullish, there's a ton of green on the charts, and people start ranting about 100k/coin, that's a serious warning sign for anyone that is remaining objective. The reverse is true when the doomsayers come out of the woodworks screaming the end, and especially when some people who were seemingly permabulls during big rises start talking about shorting.

Now, whether the permabears knew this, or are just bitter that they sold at whatever much lower price, I couldn't tell you, and I imagine it would be different for each individual.

It's like, people are being mocked for buying at these prices, but in my opinion, anyone that was patient and waited to buy at these prices is doing it way more right than the guys who bought at 800+, even if it does turn out to be wrong.

I don't think we've seen crazy bullishness lately, have we?

I know it's dumb when people go choo choo everytime it raises a single dollar, but i think they're joking half the time

[MrPiggles]

The point is that most traders lose money. The forum is littered with people who sold early and wished they hadn't. There may be a very select few who have sold at near a peak and bought in much lower. It isn't the vast majority of the bearish posters on here who simply wish to buy at a low price. I would say buying at a third of the previous ATH is a decent entry.

This is what I was referring to.

Most "traders" lose money and yet all the perma bears in here knew it was a steal at $10 and recognised it was a bubble at $1000... lol

I held and made money last year but I got in well over $100 per btc, I also sold a bit early in December, but I did pretty well.

I have lost over $5000 this year so far

[LFC_Bitcoin]

The point is that most traders lose money. The forum is littered with people who sold early and wished they hadn't. There may be a very select few who have sold at near a peak and bought in much lower. It isn't the vast majority of the bearish posters on here who simply wish to buy at a low price. I would say buying at a third of the previous ATH is a decent entry.

This is what I was referring to.

Most "traders" lose money and yet all the perma bears in here knew it was a steal at $10 and recognised it was a bubble at $1000... lol

I held and made money last year but I got in well over $100 per btc, I also sold a bit early in December, but I did pretty well.

I have lost over $5000 this year so far

I've invested about 6000 GBP in BTC , I'm down about 1500 GBP based on the price today.
I'm not a trader though, I'm HODLING all of my coins in the hope one day they will give me a decent cash sum.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[MrPiggles]

The point is that most traders lose money. The forum is littered with people who sold early and wished they hadn't. There may be a very select few who have sold at near a peak and bought in much lower. It isn't the vast majority of the bearish posters on here who simply wish to buy at a low price. I would say buying at a third of the previous ATH is a decent entry.

This is what I was referring to.

Most "traders" lose money and yet all the perma bears in here knew it was a steal at $10 and recognised it was a bubble at $1000... lol

I held and made money last year but I got in well over $100 per btc, I also sold a bit early in December, but I did pretty well.

I have lost over $5000 this year so far

I've invested about 6000 GBP in BTC , I'm down about 1500 GBP based on the price today.
I'm not a trader though, I'm HODLING all of my coins in the hope one day they will give me a decent cash sum.

I never meant to hold any, it was accidental. Although I was telling everyone how great bitcoin was at $2 I never thought to buy any as an investment

[LFC_Bitcoin]

The point is that most traders lose money. The forum is littered with people who sold early and wished they hadn't. There may be a very select few who have sold at near a peak and bought in much lower. It isn't the vast majority of the bearish posters on here who simply wish to buy at a low price. I would say buying at a third of the previous ATH is a decent entry.

This is what I was referring to.

Most "traders" lose money and yet all the perma bears in here knew it was a steal at $10 and recognised it was a bubble at $1000... lol

I held and made money last year but I got in well over $100 per btc, I also sold a bit early in December, but I did pretty well.

I have lost over $5000 this year so far

I've invested about 6000 GBP in BTC , I'm down about 1500 GBP based on the price today.
I'm not a trader though, I'm HODLING all of my coins in the hope one day they will give me a decent cash sum.

I never meant to hold any, it was accidental. Although I was telling everyone how great bitcoin was at $2 I never thought to buy any as an investment

I got when we were around 600 USD.
I wish I'd got in at 2 USD, the 6000 GBP (approx 10000 USD?) I've invested would have made me a lot of cash.
Oh well, I just have to HODL & hope 10-15 years from now we go to the moon.

[inca]

Yeah, and those people made out like a bandit when they rebought at $6 and $100, and if we're ever at $xxxx (I say "if," not "when," because I don't know about you, but I'm not a psychic), the same people bragging about buying at ATH will come out of the woodworks, start shouting the same thing about 100k coins, and then holders should be worried again.

The point is that most traders lose money. The forum is littered with people who sold early and wished they hadn't. There may be a very select few who have sold at near a peak and bought in much lower. It isn't the vast majority of the bearish posters on here who simply wish to buy at a low price. I would say buying at a third of the previous ATH is a decent entry.

Most traders lose money because most traders trade with emotion. If most traders lose money, shouldn't you be betting against most traders? During the last bubble, most traders were shouting "TO DA MOON," and when that happens during what has already been a huge run up, and the greed factor is at the absolute maximum, that's when you should start worrying.

The forum is also littered with people who bought at 30 during the run up to 32 and are happy with their profit, when if they had shown a little patience and didn't let emotion get the best of them, they could have waited until even $15 (let alone $5 or even $2) and doubled (or more) their profits.

Picking an absolute bottom for most people is very difficult, but extremely easy in retrospect. If the price rallies up to break 450 in november then the long term down trend is likely broken. That could happen in 24 hours. Given the incredibly bullish year we have had despite a heavy bear market I find it puzzling that a seeming majority of posters expect the price to drop continuously lower back to levels from 2 years ago.

[DeadCoin]

Yeah, and those people made out like a bandit when they rebought at $6 and $100, and if we're ever at $xxxx (I say "if," not "when," because I don't know about you, but I'm not a psychic), the same people bragging about buying at ATH will come out of the woodworks, start shouting the same thing about 100k coins, and then holders should be worried again.

The point is that most traders lose money. The forum is littered with people who sold early and wished they hadn't. There may be a very select few who have sold at near a peak and bought in much lower. It isn't the vast majority of the bearish posters on here who simply wish to buy at a low price. I would say buying at a third of the previous ATH is a decent entry.

Most traders lose money because most traders trade with emotion. If most traders lose money, shouldn't you be betting against most traders? During the last bubble, most traders were shouting "TO DA MOON," and when that happens during what has already been a huge run up, and the greed factor is at the absolute maximum, that's when you should start worrying.

The forum is also littered with people who bought at 30 during the run up to 32 and are happy with their profit, when if they had shown a little patience and didn't let emotion get the best of them, they could have waited until even $15 (let alone $5 or even $2) and doubled (or more) their profits.

Picking an absolute bottom for most people is very difficult, but extremely easy in retrospect. If the price rallies up to break 450 in november then the long term down trend is likely broken. That could happen in 24 hours. Given the incredibly bullish year we have had despite a heavy bear market I find it puzzling that a seeming majority of posters expect the price to drop continuously lower back to levels from 2 years ago.

That's a big "If"

[octaft]

Picking an absolute bottom for most people is very difficult, but extremely easy in retrospect. If the price rallies up to break 450 in november then the long term down trend is likely broken. That could happen in 24 hours. Given the incredibly bullish year we have had despite a heavy bear market I find it puzzling that a seeming majority of posters expect the price to drop continuously lower back to levels from 2 years ago.

That's a big "If"

I do respect the fact that he used the word "if." Nothing is a sure thing regarding the future.

[MrPiggles]

That's a big "If"

Someone called deadcoin is obviously objective.

The amount of people who are obviously paid to shill here almost makes me think the conspiracy theorists are right.

[inca]

Yeah, and those people made out like a bandit when they rebought at $6 and $100, and if we're ever at $xxxx (I say "if," not "when," because I don't know about you, but I'm not a psychic), the same people bragging about buying at ATH will come out of the woodworks, start shouting the same thing about 100k coins, and then holders should be worried again.

The point is that most traders lose money. The forum is littered with people who sold early and wished they hadn't. There may be a very select few who have sold at near a peak and bought in much lower. It isn't the vast majority of the bearish posters on here who simply wish to buy at a low price. I would say buying at a third of the previous ATH is a decent entry.

Most traders lose money because most traders trade with emotion. If most traders lose money, shouldn't you be betting against most traders? During the last bubble, most traders were shouting "TO DA MOON," and when that happens during what has already been a huge run up, and the greed factor is at the absolute maximum, that's when you should start worrying.

The forum is also littered with people who bought at 30 during the run up to 32 and are happy with their profit, when if they had shown a little patience and didn't let emotion get the best of them, they could have waited until even $15 (let alone $5 or even $2) and doubled (or more) their profits.

Picking an absolute bottom for most people is very difficult, but extremely easy in retrospect. If the price rallies up to break 450 in november then the long term down trend is likely broken. That could happen in 24 hours. Given the incredibly bullish year we have had despite a heavy bear market I find it puzzling that a seeming majority of posters expect the price to drop continuously lower back to levels from 2 years ago.

That's a big "If"

In the context of an 11 month bear market we have rising btc adoption, rising transaction volumes, rising merchant integration and astonishing VC funding into bitcoin companies this year. Fundamentals seem pretty bullish to me. Perhaps you have another idea.

Technically I see a high volume reversal at 275 and so far a higher low.

I have no idea what will happen, but my guess is that it will go much higher. I am not 100% invested in bitcoin because I don't know that, sadly

Edit: I do remember distinctly wishing i had bought a lot more coins when the run up began this time last year. I continued kicking myself throughout the first few months of the year. I have since accumulated a larger position. If it rises back up into 4 digits by the next halving I will again be kicking myself for not being more speculative

[DeadCoin]

Yeah, and those people made out like a bandit when they rebought at $6 and $100, and if we're ever at $xxxx (I say "if," not "when," because I don't know about you, but I'm not a psychic), the same people bragging about buying at ATH will come out of the woodworks, start shouting the same thing about 100k coins, and then holders should be worried again.

The point is that most traders lose money. The forum is littered with people who sold early and wished they hadn't. There may be a very select few who have sold at near a peak and bought in much lower. It isn't the vast majority of the bearish posters on here who simply wish to buy at a low price. I would say buying at a third of the previous ATH is a decent entry.

Most traders lose money because most traders trade with emotion. If most traders lose money, shouldn't you be betting against most traders? During the last bubble, most traders were shouting "TO DA MOON," and when that happens during what has already been a huge run up, and the greed factor is at the absolute maximum, that's when you should start worrying.

The forum is also littered with people who bought at 30 during the run up to 32 and are happy with their profit, when if they had shown a little patience and didn't let emotion get the best of them, they could have waited until even $15 (let alone $5 or even $2) and doubled (or more) their profits.

Picking an absolute bottom for most people is very difficult, but extremely easy in retrospect. If the price rallies up to break 450 in november then the long term down trend is likely broken. That could happen in 24 hours. Given the incredibly bullish year we have had despite a heavy bear market I find it puzzling that a seeming majority of posters expect the price to drop continuously lower back to levels from 2 years ago.

That's a big "If"

In the context of an 11 month bear market we have rising btc adoption, rising transaction volumes, rising merchant integration and astonishing VC funding into bitcoin companies this year. Fundamentals seem pretty bullish to me. Perhaps you have another idea.

Technically I see a high volume reversal at 275 and so far a higher low.

I have no idea what will happen, but my guess is that it will go much higher. I am not 100% invested in bitcoin because I don't know that, sadly

Nobody knows for sure, market is to small and easily manipulated, but the problem is you WISH it will go up. You're not objective and you can't see the reality. The fact is there is a strong downtrend, it is more likely it will go down than up. I'd say there is 80% in favor of 200s to be see first than 400s which are about 20%.

[Miz4r]

That's a big "If"

Someone called deadcoin is obviously objective.

The amount of people who are obviously paid to shill here almost makes me think the conspiracy theorists are right.

They are right, except not all of them are. The trick is to know which ones are true.

[DeadCoin]

That's a big "If"

Someone called deadcoin is obviously objective.

The amount of people who are obviously paid to shill here almost makes me think the conspiracy theorists are right.

Yep, you got me, it's a conspiracy

[inca]

Yeah, and those people made out like a bandit when they rebought at $6 and $100, and if we're ever at $xxxx (I say "if," not "when," because I don't know about you, but I'm not a psychic), the same people bragging about buying at ATH will come out of the woodworks, start shouting the same thing about 100k coins, and then holders should be worried again.

The point is that most traders lose money. The forum is littered with people who sold early and wished they hadn't. There may be a very select few who have sold at near a peak and bought in much lower. It isn't the vast majority of the bearish posters on here who simply wish to buy at a low price. I would say buying at a third of the previous ATH is a decent entry.

Most traders lose money because most traders trade with emotion. If most traders lose money, shouldn't you be betting against most traders? During the last bubble, most traders were shouting "TO DA MOON," and when that happens during what has already been a huge run up, and the greed factor is at the absolute maximum, that's when you should start worrying.

The forum is also littered with people who bought at 30 during the run up to 32 and are happy with their profit, when if they had shown a little patience and didn't let emotion get the best of them, they could have waited until even $15 (let alone $5 or even $2) and doubled (or more) their profits.

Picking an absolute bottom for most people is very difficult, but extremely easy in retrospect. If the price rallies up to break 450 in november then the long term down trend is likely broken. That could happen in 24 hours. Given the incredibly bullish year we have had despite a heavy bear market I find it puzzling that a seeming majority of posters expect the price to drop continuously lower back to levels from 2 years ago.

That's a big "If"

In the context of an 11 month bear market we have rising btc adoption, rising transaction volumes, rising merchant integration and astonishing VC funding into bitcoin companies this year. Fundamentals seem pretty bullish to me. Perhaps you have another idea.

Technically I see a high volume reversal at 275 and so far a higher low.

I have no idea what will happen, but my guess is that it will go much higher. I am not 100% invested in bitcoin because I don't know that, sadly

Nobody knows for sure, market is to small and easily manipulated, but the problem is you WISH it will go up. You're not objective and you can't see the reality. The fact is there is a strong downtrend, it is more likely it will go down than up. I'd say there is 80% in favor of 200s to be see first than 400s which are about 20%.

You are no more objective than I am. I wouldn't call this a strong downtrend in any case. Momentum is leaking out of it with each passing day. Looking at volume your guess odds are unlikely. In fact all your guess is predicated on is a line on a chart. You could be right though

Edit: just realised you are called Deadcoin and that doesn't exactly support your argument of being objective.

[MrPiggles]

That's a big "If"

Someone called deadcoin is obviously objective.

The amount of people who are obviously paid to shill here almost makes me think the conspiracy theorists are right.

Yep, you got me, it's a conspiracy

You're that dim that you can't even see the "almost" in the post you quoted.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

In the context of an 11 month bear market we have rising btc adoption, rising transaction volumes, rising merchant integration and astonishing VC funding into bitcoin companies this year. Fundamentals seem pretty bullish to me.

There is no real data on BTC adoption.  Anyway it is obvious that the BTC price is due to speculation, not adoption.  Without speculation, the demand for payment use may not be enough to support 100 $/BTC.

The NUMBER of transactions is rising, but the daily transaction VOLUME IN USD is basically flat, somewhat down from January.  However, we do not know how much of that is actual payments (BTC changing hands).

Merchant integration means more merchants are accepting dollars or euros that come from the sale of bitcoins.  It gives more excuses for early adopters to sell their old coins.  I have yet to see evidence that it is attracting new users.

VC funding seems to be going mostly into service companies, like exchanges, fund management, and payment processors; not into bitcoin itself.  Most of those investors do hope that the price will recover, or at least stop falling, so that they get more customers; but they will make money even if the BTC price gradually goes to zero.  And some service companies (such as slightly dishonest investment funds) will make MORE money in this case.

The big fundamental fact in the last 11 months is strongly negative: the Chinese government has made bitcoin nearly useless in Mainland China.  Apparently, the Chinese speculators who drove the price from ~140$ to ~1200$ have been leaving the market, with some ups and downs, since last December.

A new bubble will require opening some new market, bigger than Mainland China was before de December decrees.  Will the COIN ETF do that?

[inca]

In the context of an 11 month bear market we have rising btc adoption, rising transaction volumes, rising merchant integration and astonishing VC funding into bitcoin companies this year. Fundamentals seem pretty bullish to me.

<snip>

Wallet numbers are rising. This is perhaps faked with a service like blockchain.info but not at coinbase who have to follow KYC/AML to the letter.

[Turnkey]

In the context of an 11 month bear market we have rising btc adoption, rising transaction volumes, rising merchant integration and astonishing VC funding into bitcoin companies this year. Fundamentals seem pretty bullish to me.

There is no real data on BTC adoption.  Anyway it is obvious that the BTC price is due to speculation, not adoption.  Without speculation, the demand for payment use may not be enough to support 100 $/BTC.

The NUMBER of transactions is rising, but the daily transaction VOLUME IN USD is basically flat, somewhat down from January.  However, we do not know how much of that is actual payments (BTC changing hands).

Merchant integration means more merchants are accepting dollars or euros that come from the sale of bitcoins.  It gives more excuses for early adopters to sell their old coins.  I have yet to see evidence that it is attracting new users.

VC funding seems to be going mostly into service companies, like exchanges, fund management, and payment processors; not into bitcoin itself.  Most of those investors do hope that the price will recover, or at least stop falling, so that they get more customers; but they will make money even if the BTC price gradually goes to zero.  And some service companies (such as slightly dishonest investment funds) will make MORE money in this case.

The big fundamental fact in the last 11 months is strongly negative: the Chinese government has made bitcoin nearly useless in Mainland China.  Apparently, the Chinese speculators who drove the price from ~140$ to ~1200$ have been leaving the market, with some ups and downs, since last December.

A new bubble will require opening some new market, bigger than Mainland China was before de December decrees.  Will the COIN ETF do that?

I respectfully disagree, we will not ever see 100 USD again, that is if we ever see it fall below - that would be the end of crypto. But this will not happen in a thousand years.