Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[S3052]

What about all those little barracudas that do both, just to survive? Do you really consider them retarded, from the highs of your lucky-early-adopter-loaded position?

It's not a matter of how many Bitcoins I do or do not have - it's a known fact that day trading (in general, not specific to BItcoin) is a negative sum game.

Anybody who is not cheating is just achieving random returns.

Over long time scales, the lifetime returns of all investors converge to the same average value (except for the ones that manage to cheat).

I agree with you that many traders lose money.

However, there is hard data showing that about 1 out of 1000 traders are very successful and outperform the market by large margins - on day trading as well as more long term investing strategies

[grappa_barricata]

What about all those little barracudas that do both, just to survive? Do you really consider them retarded, from the highs of your lucky-early-adopter-loaded position?

It's not a matter of how many Bitcoins I do or do not have - it's a known fact that day trading (in general, not specific to BItcoin) is a negative sum game.

Anybody who is not cheating is just achieving random returns.

Over long time scales, the lifetime returns of all investors converge to the same average value (except for the ones that manage to cheat).

So, to be clear, day-trading is bad and bounded to failure but month-trading or year-trading ('investing') is all good and dandy. Is that correct?

[justusranvier]

There's another way to "win" at this: get out while you're on top. Works in conjunction with "random results", but is hard to do, because when you're having a lucky streak, it's usually quite a bit of fun.. why leave?

Same strategy works on slot machines.

It's fine for people who understand they are gambling, but there's a tendency for people to start believing they that it's a game of skill instead of a game of chance.

[justusranvier]

So, to be clear, day-trading is bad and bounded to failure but month-trading or year-trading ('investing') is all good and dandy. Is that correct?

I don't trade.

I emigrated.

[colour]

It's affirming to every now and again do a show/hide on ole' shroomporkchops and see you did in fact make the right call.

 
What? How are you getting your updates on our beneficent reptilian overlords then if you have NotLambchop on ignore?  

Blasphemy!

[grappa_barricata]

So, to be clear, day-trading is bad and bounded to failure but month-trading or year-trading ('investing') is all good and dandy. Is that correct?

I don't trade.

I emigrated.

Well, lucky that you emigrated when price was a couple of orders of magnitude lower than now. Will you be of the same opinion if you emigrated when it was 1100$, or if you saw your last 6 months of job rewards shrink 20% in a day? I don't think so. But please keep defining others that struggle every day 'retarded'.
So now we have 2 major personalities here: the cocky early adopter that just nailed the universe, life and everything; and the whiny shroomkit whose mission is to 'talk' the price to the desired level.

[justusranvier]

Well, lucky that you emigrated when price was a couple of orders of magnitude lower than now. Will you be of the same opinion if you emigrated when it was 1100$, or if you saw your last 6 months of job rewards shrink 20% in a day? I don't think so. But please keep defining others that struggle every day 'retarded'.
So now we have 2 major personalities here: the cocky early adopter that just nailed the universe, life and everything; and the whiny shroomkit whose mission is to 'talk' the price to the desired level.

You're making unwarranted assumptions about how many Bitcoins I own.

Anyway, it's a matter of time preference and planning.

If I would have chosen exactly 1 year ago to go all-in Bitcoin, it would have made no difference.

Suppose for the same of argument that it's 2013, my income is not pegged to bitcoin, I get paid in btc, and that I can save 50% of my earnings.

Jump forward today and using bitcoin as my unit of account, what's happened since then equivalent to a 3x pay raise, because the number of bitcoins I'd be adding to my savings now would be triple what I was adding a year ago.

Edit: Bitcoin is the best unit of account.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[grappa_barricata]

You're making unwarranted assumptions about how many Bitcoins I own.
Anyway, it's a matter of time preference and planning.
If I would have chosen exactly 1 year ago to go all-in Bitcoin, it would have made no difference.
Suppose for the same of argument that it's 2013, my income is not pegged to bitcoin, I get paid in btc, and that I can save 50% of my earnings.
Jump forward today and using bitcoin as my unit of account, what's happened since then equivalent to a 3x pay raise, because the number of bitcoins I'd be adding to my savings now would be triple what I was adding a year ago.

Unless, of course, one use real buying power as a measure of value. Like in the real world.

[justusranvier]

Unless, of course, one use real buying power as a measure of value. Like in the real world.

Your "real world" is a world in which people have been punished for saving by inflation and credit expansion (actually the same thing) to the point at which actions that should be entirely familiar and widely recognized as beneficial are viewed with fear and suspicion.

The fact that living below ones means and accumulating savings to be drawn upon far in the future is considered extreme and unrealistic is a sign of how much the money has been corrupted.

[NotLambchop]

Unless, of course, one use real buying power as a measure of value. Like in the real world.

Your "real world" is a world in which [typical neoliber gibberish] ...

It's also YOUR real world.  So now you know.



  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords.

[grappa_barricata]

Unless, of course, one use real buying power as a measure of value. Like in the real world.

Your "real world" is a world in which people have been punished for saving by inflation and credit expansion (actually the same thing) to the point at which actions that should be entirely familiar and widely recognized as beneficial are viewed with fear and suspicion.

The fact that living below ones means and accumulating savings to be drawn upon far in the future is considered extreme and unrealistic is a sign of how much the money has been corrupted.

How can I not agree on the effect of inflation on the pre-existing monetary base buying power? It is a fact.
My suggestion is to rework your accounting using 'power to buy bananas' as a measure of your wealth. You'll then notice that it is shrinking, not growing. Bitcoin is a great accounting unit as long as its value grow, amiright?

But do you really understand FIAT money? Because if you do, you also understand that 'saving' those banknotes for the long term makes no sense whatsoever.

Besides, that wasn't my point. My point is: do not call people retarded just because you were in the right place at the right time once and they were not. Life is strange, takes you to places you never considered. Bad places sometimes. Remember: that which fortune has given, she can take away.

[spooderman]

Molecular hasn't started buying yet, yet he is a donator. Weird.

[Thomas-s]

Molecular hasn't started buying yet, yet he is a donator. Weird.

Why would he buy when the price will drop in 1-2 months?

[arklan]

Molecular hasn't started buying yet, yet he is a donator. Weird.

holding bitcoins and thus being able to donate them doesn't require buying. probably an old miner.

[spooderman]

Molecular hasn't started buying yet, yet he is a donator. Weird.

holding bitcoins and thus being able to donate them doesn't require buying. probably an old miner.

true! I always forget that mining used to actually result in bitcoins. Now it results in heat and electricity bills.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

looking at the order books, BFX and Stamp are bullish and Huobi is bearish. At some unknown point in the Future, the Chinese will either start buying again or run out of coins. When that happens it's off to the races.

[qwk]

I always forget that mining used to actually result in bitcoins. Now it results in heat and electricity bills.

[molecular]

There's another way to "win" at this: get out while you're on top. Works in conjunction with "random results", but is hard to do, because when you're having a lucky streak, it's usually quite a bit of fun.. why leave?

Same strategy works on slot machines.

It's fine for people who understand they are gambling, but there's a tendency for people to start believing they that it's a game of skill instead of a game of chance.

Like the dudes on wall street?