Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

You guys realize people bought 30k BTC @300 on Bitstamp within 24h? To me, evidence is needed to tell that this support should fall, especially when we have had declining selling volume off 418 to 315, which represents a higher low that just shouldn't happen if the bearish momentum was there. This is in addition to the declining asks and rising bid sums.

I have been warning for over a month and harvested only insults and disbelief: that 5th of October was likely a mid term bottom (that much is clear now) and possibly even a long term bottom.

I thought it was obvious to us the bearwhale just ate his own coins. No?

No, the ask was up for many hours, there were many buys and Bitstamp was much lower than other exchanges providing an arbitrage opportunity. It's highly unlikely most of it was bought by the seller himself.

I don't get it. If it wasn't manipulation, if some whale really wanted out, he could have just bled the coins back into the market slowly...

[1715185501]

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[1715185501]

1715185501

[1715185501]

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[1715185501]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wekkel]

Trading works. A trader can be successful, and what is needed, is to be able to anticipate the future. This is the basis of free market capitalism. If you are good at anticipating, you win, if you are bad, you lose. If you consistently lose, you are out out of the game and your capital is transferred to others, who are better. This is how all investing works, and what is to be anticipated, when all is said and done, is the demand for the different consumer goods. If you are good, you take part in forming the capital structure to produce the most consumer goods with the best balance between the different types of consumer goods.

What we the traders and holders do, is to increase the value of bitcoins, therefore we direct capital to the miners, who build the magnificent bitcoin mining network, and to the service companies. We anticipate that this is advantageous for traders of all goods and services, and therefore ultimately advantageous for the consumers.

The method we use to predict, is not important. Charting, fundamentals, logic or feelings, it does not matter any more than the reasons a gene has, when it chooses to mutate into a variant. It doesn't choose, in fact it does nothing consciously, because it has not the capability to think, but still a gene's code  can either adapt and prosper, or die.

Just as with the genes in the nature, you can never declare a final winner. You can declare a tentative winner, by sampling the world's gene pool and find the gene which is most numerous.

In investing, your status is always temporary. You may have a lot of value at a certain point, but the asset that you own, can depreciate. You can sell out, but then you have money, which can still depreciate. And your competitor might in the mean time find a winner asset that appreciate more than your's. That is why capitalists sometimes say, the one who has the most when he dies, wins. But death is also not definitive, because a fortune can outlive one individual, and living a prosperous life in your own psychical understanding of that concept, is also on the scale.

In bitcoin, it is difficult to predict, because it is a fundamentally new thing, and the liquidity on the market is not known. Liquidity here is the ease with which you can sell, or convert to other money or goods. The daytraders or other traders buy and sell, but in the long term they hold, on average, a number of coins which is not changing, and thus does not add real liquidity. You would think that you could easily sell 30K coins over a few weeks, when the daily trade volume is hundreds of thousands of coins. But apparently, that didn't work. The guy with 30K coins might think, when the price was 600, that his wealth was equal to 18 mill USD. But because of low liquidity, he could not convert at that price. Who could have known? Well now we know.

Daytraders could in theory take advantage of the resulting volatility, but they could not know what was in the head of the 30K seller, when and how much he would sell. It is not good enough to know afterwards, you have to know in advance, and I propose that nobody can know the daily variations.

Therefore a daytrader, as opposed to a long time, fundamentalist trader, can not know what he is doing, and his decisions are random, and produce random wins and losses. Now the big point: To be a daytrader, you have to sometimes have fiat, sometimes bitcoin, and sometimes a mix. So when there is a general uptrend, the daytrader is overall only half invested. A long time holder is fully invested. Therefore, a daytrader can not win as much as a holder. In a downtrend he will lose less, but in the long run, we will not have a downtrend. That is the holders prediction.

Some good points in this.

[bassclef]

If a trader can properly apply the tools at his disposal (charts, indicators, candles) to predict supply versus demand in any given timeframe, he can profit even if he is right only part of the time. This is the easy part.

He must not only know the market in which he is trading, but he must know himself well enough to not let emotional baggage affect his decisions. To him, a bull market feels the same as a bear market. There is no joy or despair, only opportunity. The true challenge a trader faces is himself.

He must have the courage to confidently enter a position and exit quickly if he's wrong. He must not think too much or pontificate about a profit or mourn a loss.

Hamlet said it well: "...for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so."

The sociopath trader - I don't buy it.

I sure am.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fonzie]

Satoshi has been found 

[Davyd05]

I could enjoy a weekend rally, what are the Chinese up to this afternoon.

[KFR]

See my sig. 

[Davyd05]

See my sig. 

agree, we shouldn't let them. I've done my part already though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Raystonn]

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[lyth0s]

Back to $350. How long will it last?

[mmortal03]

Back to $350. How long will it last?

Unless we somehow go above $360 soon, the steepened downward trend since $597 (the first week of August) seems like it will continue on down.

[Shak]

"we are going up  SELL ALL!"

not very long

[spooderman]

You guys realize people bought 30k BTC @300 on Bitstamp within 24h? To me, evidence is needed to tell that this support should fall, especially when we have had declining selling volume off 418 to 315, which represents a higher low that just shouldn't happen if the bearish momentum was there. This is in addition to the declining asks and rising bid sums.

I have been warning for over a month and harvested only insults and disbelief: that 5th of October was likely a mid term bottom (that much is clear now) and possibly even a long term bottom.

I thought it was obvious to us the bearwhale just ate his own coins. No?

No, the ask was up for many hours, there were many buys and Bitstamp was much lower than other exchanges providing an arbitrage opportunity. It's highly unlikely most of it was bought by the seller himself.

Yes arbitrage, but there are many reason why he might have indeed bought his own wall.

He could have put a large sell order in by mistake, and then feared the price falling due to fear of a market sell if he were to pull it. So he left it there and bought it in order to save himself from that. Thus accidentally (possibly) ending the bear market.

That might have happened. I'm not saying it did, but it doesn't seem unlikely to me.

[rebuilder]

You guys realize people bought 30k BTC @300 on Bitstamp within 24h? To me, evidence is needed to tell that this support should fall, especially when we have had declining selling volume off 418 to 315, which represents a higher low that just shouldn't happen if the bearish momentum was there. This is in addition to the declining asks and rising bid sums.

I have been warning for over a month and harvested only insults and disbelief: that 5th of October was likely a mid term bottom (that much is clear now) and possibly even a long term bottom.

I thought it was obvious to us the bearwhale just ate his own coins. No?

No, the ask was up for many hours, there were many buys and Bitstamp was much lower than other exchanges providing an arbitrage opportunity. It's highly unlikely most of it was bought by the seller himself.

Yes arbitrage, but there are many reason why he might have indeed bought his own wall.

He could have put a large sell order in by mistake, and then feared the price falling due to fear of a market sell if he were to pull it. So he left it there and bought it in order to save himself from that. Thus accidentally (possibly) ending the bear market.

That might have happened. I'm not saying it did, but it doesn't seem unlikely to me.

To accidentally put up a 30k askwall, you have to have 30k btc on an exchange. Who in their right mind would keep that kind of money on an exchange if they don't intend to do anything with it?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[noobtrader]

Explanation

fair price

[spooderman]

You guys realize people bought 30k BTC @300 on Bitstamp within 24h? To me, evidence is needed to tell that this support should fall, especially when we have had declining selling volume off 418 to 315, which represents a higher low that just shouldn't happen if the bearish momentum was there. This is in addition to the declining asks and rising bid sums.

I have been warning for over a month and harvested only insults and disbelief: that 5th of October was likely a mid term bottom (that much is clear now) and possibly even a long term bottom.

I thought it was obvious to us the bearwhale just ate his own coins. No?

No, the ask was up for many hours, there were many buys and Bitstamp was much lower than other exchanges providing an arbitrage opportunity. It's highly unlikely most of it was bought by the seller himself.

Yes arbitrage, but there are many reason why he might have indeed bought his own wall.

He could have put a large sell order in by mistake, and then feared the price falling due to fear of a market sell if he were to pull it. So he left it there and bought it in order to save himself from that. Thus accidentally (possibly) ending the bear market.

That might have happened. I'm not saying it did, but it doesn't seem unlikely to me.

To accidentally put up a 30k askwall, you have to have 30k btc on an exchange. Who in their right mind would keep that kind of money on an exchange if they don't intend to do anything with it?

Bearwhale's intention might have been something other than to use it to make a giant ask wall? Maybe it was to dump 1k every time the price rose a little bit.