Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cheekychap]

The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

[noobtrader]

Does anyone has any info regarding Secondmarket ETF? There were rumours that they would go live today...

http://news.bitcoinial.com/news/second-market-etf-coming-nov14-2340

NOooooooo !!!!!!!!!

mi want cheap coin... me want cheap coin !!!!!!

[bitcats]

The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

massive pump & dump

[seljo]

[mrkavasaki]

So we are still in a downtrend?
It is not over yet?

[noobtrader]

So we are still in a downtrend?
It is not over yet?

sideways... bear is not trend anymoar

[aspa]

The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

My guess: breakout attempts in a low-volume, volatile market that doesn't fully support the uptrend (yet).
Low volume is the norm, some players are probably liquidating their stash regularly without caring too much for the exact price, and sometimes there's a (good or bad) reason for some actors to put some bigger amount of cash into the market. Also, there's a more healthy amount of money *and* coins waiting to be put in the books when the prices deviate too far from the predictable range (an elastic rope with a length of about 80 usd).
In short: the swings are the result of the thin volume..
So I agree: the recent increase in volume at most exchanges is a good thing. Perhaps now we can expect actual market prices somewhere in the near future..

Note that if money isn't going to gush in again soon, we're falling back into the old down-trend. (And even if that old down-trend is broken, we might get a parallel trend..)
Not trying to be bearish here, just cautious;)

[aspa]

So we are still in a downtrend?
It is not over yet?

sideways... bear is not trend anymoar

If we break 435/440, sideways is open to change to bullish..
(And like with any TA conclusion, I have to add that if that happens, it can still stay a sideways or bearish channel )

[ejinte]

will we break 380?

[Wexlike]

i experienced all emotions because of this stupid okcoin pump and dump. -.-

[grappa_barricata]

volume is at historical highs in every exchange

[ErnieX]

$387 pretty good moment to buyback in.

[MyMindOnSat0shi]

How many months for 6 confirmations to go through BitStamp? zzzzzz...

[David Latapie]

Hi,

My very first TA, voluntarily simple. I'm not a big fan of TA but I wanted to give a try, so be gentle with a newcomer in TA.
Basically, I consider it is possible for BTC to continue up once at $370 - with probably some overcorrection going first, so that a buy at $360 could make it.
TA. I'd appreciate you tell me why you think it is plausible or what is lacking in it, for education.

Thanks.

[Erdogan]

Smaller bubbles, like this one, means faster correction to a more realistic conservative price. Which is more sound. Maybe this is the future, may be we will be spared from the mtgox-like megabubbles.

[aspa]

Hi,

My very first TA, voluntarily simple. I'm not a big fan of TA but I wanted to give a try, so be gentle with a newcomer in TA.
Basically, I consider it is possible for BTC to continue up once at $370 - with probably some overcorrection going first, so that a buy at $360 could make it.
TA. I'd appreciate you tell me why you think it is plausible or what is lacking in it, for education.

Thanks.

https://i.imgur.com/Un6kt3M.png

Hi!
Not sure you should do TA on a retrace. What does it mean: where does it give resistance, what trend does it uncover?
Also, I don't see the support in the bottom line. You could try drawing one from that 316 bottom, consider your starting point as a failed downward breakout, and keep the second support in your line. But I think it's weak support, with no volume behind the bottoms.
Have fun!:)

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Willy2.0 was beaten down by the nervous miners who don't want to ride this train any longer.
But I still think that the next couple of weeks could be interesting for those who trade. I think that BTC can go to 800$ tops, because the amount of coins held by miners, who have worked with a loss and accumulated a very large pile over these months. I highly doubt that there will be a strong enough buying interest to push through this heavy pile. My prediction is that BTC will experience an avalanche like never seen before in the near future, when the market realizes that it can't sustain the heavy cost of mining.
Anyway, I'm glad that someone tried to stimulate the market, because it made trading BTC fun again. In the longer timeframe, my aim is to accumulate PPC instead.

What great humor that can be provide through this thread............ PPC... good luck with that..  

This isn't humor. Thanks though.

I do believe that you are on to something regarding your choice of an approximate $800 price point for your predicted tops.


I do NOT agree with your prediction because it is too bearish; however, I agree with you that there is likely going to be up and down movement of BTC prices (in other words plenty of built in BTC dumps) until prices return to around $800-ish.  I kept suggesting that the price point will be around $850 or so when that threshold is passed, the Viola.. We are inevitably on to a new ATH.

However, my thinking on this subject seems to have evolved a little bit, especially giving the recent and long bearish and extent of bearishness of the BTC market in the last year.  Accordingly, the threshold price could be lower than my previous $850-ish prediction and the rocket/train may take off at a lower price point - maybe into the lower $700s?  

Anyhow, once the rocket shoots BTC prices past the previous ATH, BTC prices will be pushed into the $3k to $13k range... and surely, I am engaged in a considerable amount of speculation regarding this point - but my speculation range relates to my understanding of adoption and developments around BTC and also my view that BTC prices have been artificially manipulated down for quite a bit of the last year and more so in the last 6 months.  In that regard, those who have been manipulating BTC prices downward, and/or allowing for the downward manipulation of BTC prices have been accumulating BTC, and at some point, they are going to want to pump BTC prices up to as high of a price as they can pump it (which will be the $3k to $13k range in the next cycle).  There will be upward manipulation and hype and onboarding of new money and various aspects of the masses... and some of the extent of the new onboarding of new money is a bit uncertain to know and a bit uncertain to know how much money is or could be waiting on the sidelines to jump  on board.. but there are a lot more avenues (now) to get into and to get out of BTC (as compared with the previous bubbles).

I consider my opinion, that BTC will touch 800 again, rather optimistic.
To me, it all boils down to ETF. Bitcoin mining is too expensive, and the pile of coins with high production cost, that are created with the sole purpose to be sold, is getting too heavy for the degenerate gamblers and their mortgages. Willy2.0 can only function if enough fiat will be left on exchanges. If people will want to withdraw their fiat, then willy will be goxed rather sooner then later. And industrial mining has risen the need for fiat to exit the exchanges.
My opinion about ETF is that it won't go through. There are too many unanswered questions that are critical. Like the criminal past of bitcoin and the ownership of coin. How can one prove that the majority of bitcoins aren't held by criminals who earned it through illegal activities, when bitcoin was only used as a tool for the black market? And the answer is that you can't prove it.
The only way that ETF will go though, is if the Winklevii will bribe the right people for it to go through. But I see the Winklevoss twins as great rowers and that's where their competence ends. To me, they're bitcoin salemen who believe their own BS. So, I don't expect them to be very clever while executing their plan.

My bet is on coins that are most practical in a financial perspective. I consider NuBits as a practical coin, because it actually has a mechanism to offer stability. And stability is the most important thing that determines the quality of an currency. Because I can't win by speculating on a stable coin, I have to speculate on PPC, that's value is tied to the success of NuBits.

I would rather not dive into a long dialogue with you. For the most part of 2014, I have told that I can't see anything solid that would cause bitcoin unit value to rise without dropping more after. You have often replied to my speculations with long and emotional walls of text, that don't have much substance. This is just tiresome, so if you excuse me, then I would rather not continue our conversation beyond this post.

[wobber]

volume is at historical highs in every exchange

Say what?? Historical highs for last 24 hrs maybe.

[David Latapie]

Hi,

My very first TA, voluntarily simple. I'm not a big fan of TA but I wanted to give a try, so be gentle with a newcomer in TA.
Basically, I consider it is possible for BTC to continue up once at $370 - with probably some overcorrection going first, so that a buy at $360 could make it.
TA. I'd appreciate you tell me why you think it is plausible or what is lacking in it, for education.

Thanks.

Hi!
Not sure you should do TA on a retrace. What does it mean: where does it give resistance, what trend does it uncover?
Also, I don't see the support in the bottom line. You could try drawing one from that 316 bottom, consider your starting point as a failed downward breakout, and keep the second support in your line. But I think it's weak support, with no volume behind the bottoms.
Have fun!:)

Thank you aspa! Your feedback helped me immensely. Now I know a little bit more how much I don't know

[grappa_barricata]

volume is at historical highs in every exchange

Say what?? Historical highs for last 24 hrs maybe.