Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit]

The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up. 

It's absolutely crazy.

[hmmkay]

The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up. 

It's absolutely crazy.

Only thing I can think of is, lower prices with same price-swings means more % increase.
When the price is 2000, a $100 dollar price swing means a lot less than it does now.

It's hilarious how most traders in this thread justify all this behavior.
Claiming how all this dumping is natural and necessary, they should try a politicians job, they'd be good at it..

[aspa]

Thank you aspa! Your feedback helped me immensely. Now I know a little bit more how much I don't know

Then here's some more food..
Read up on patterns and their link to behavior, e.g., here:
https://www.credit-suisse.com/pwp/pb/pb_research/technical_tutorial_de.pdf

Candle sticks themselves are fun too. Read more here on them too! E.g., here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks
and
http://www.fxkeys.com/category/candlesticks/

Next step is to actually trade on them instead of only analyse them.. Most people only start to get healthy caution after losing a lot of money because they still match patterns to their emotions. Feeling happy? You'll see that great bullish pattern. Took a bearish position? Confirmation bias will lead you to plenty of bearish patterns and indicators..
(Not sure if I'm there yet. I was born a bull I guess. But a more happy bull when in bitcoins then in oil, that's for sure )

[itod]

The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up. 

It's absolutely crazy.

You are constantly whining like a child which can not understand why do the grownups do what they do. Problem is you are stuck in the fiat logic, counting your gains/loses in fiat instead of BTC. Try to finally understand that if you had 100 BTC each worth US$ 1000 each, and you now have 110 BTC each worth 400 BTC, you have not lost 56%, you gained 10%. Try to dig that into your thick head, the current price is irrelevant, it only matters how much BTC you will have when the day comes you wouldn't have to exchange them for fiat at all. The most straightforward way for smart people to gain more BTC trading is to push the price down selling as much as they can and buy more BTC when the price hits the bottom of the dump. Not everyone can trade with leverage on Bitfinex, most people trade on all other exchanges where there is no leveraged margin trading, so every they of price rising is their day lost, and every day price falling can be a big gain for them. I don't know how to put it more simpler, please try to finally understand total non-importance of short term price drops.

[nanobrain]

The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up. 

It's absolutely crazy.

You are constantly whining like a child which can not understand why do the grownups do what they do. Problem is you are stuck in the fiat logic, counting your gains/loses in fiat instead of BTC. Try to finally understand that if you had 100 BTC each worth US$ 1000 each, and you now have 110 BTC each worth 400 BTC, you have not lost 56%, you gained 10%. Try to dig that into your thick head, the current price is irrelevant, it only matters how much BTC you will have when the day comes you wouldn't have to exchange them for fiat at all. The most straightforward way for smart people to gain more BTC trading is to push the price down selling as much as they can and buy more BTC when the price hits the bottom of the dump. Not everyone can trade with leverage on Bitfinex, most people trade on all other exchanges where there is no leveraged margin trading, so every they of price rising is their day lost, and every day price falling can be a big gain for them. I don't know how to put it more simpler, please try to finally understand total non-importance of short term price drops.

I love the smell of "welcome to ignore" in the morning!!

[itod]

The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up.  

It's absolutely crazy.

You are constantly whining like a child which can not understand why do the grownups do what they do. Problem is you are stuck in the fiat logic, counting your gains/loses in fiat instead of BTC. Try to finally understand that if you had 100 BTC each worth US$ 1000 each, and you now have 110 BTC each worth 400 BTC, you have not lost 56%, you gained 10%. Try to dig that into your thick head, the current price is irrelevant, it only matters how much BTC you will have when the day comes you wouldn't have to exchange them for fiat at all. The most straightforward way for smart people to gain more BTC trading is to push the price down selling as much as they can and buy more BTC when the price hits the bottom of the dump. Not everyone can trade with leverage on Bitfinex, most people trade on all other exchanges where there is no leveraged margin trading, so every they of price rising is their day lost, and every day price falling can be a big gain for them. I don't know how to put it more simpler, please try to finally understand total non-importance of short term price drops.

I love the smell of "welcome to ignore" in the morning!!

Ignore me or not, I just can't stand any more ShroomsKit's jealousy for other people making money on dumps. All he wants is a day to dump all his BTC to his fiat bank account, and he is calling other people short-sighted, imagine that!

[macsga]

PaymentsSourceKim Kardashian's Lessons for the 'Bitcoin Card' IndustryPaymentsSourceKim Kardashian may be an overexposed reality star, but she's also a tech entrepreneur with a short-lived past in the payments industry. And several companies in the Bitcoin space are repeating her biggest mistake by offering a plastic payment card....

http://news.bitcoinial.com/news/kim-kardashians-lessons-for-the-bitcoin-card-industry-paymentssource

Damn... ALL THIS and brains too!

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

PaymentsSourceKim Kardashian's Lessons for the 'Bitcoin Card' IndustryPaymentsSourceKim Kardashian may be an overexposed reality star, but she's also a tech entrepreneur with a short-lived past in the payments industry. And several companies in the Bitcoin space are repeating her biggest mistake by offering a plastic payment card....

http://news.bitcoinial.com/news/kim-kardashians-lessons-for-the-bitcoin-card-industry-paymentssource

Damn... ALL THIS and brains too!

A good example of an bitcoin "tech entrepreneur". Just like some people here consider themselves as "tech entrepreneurs", after they figured out on how to buy coins from an exchange, and then sit on their coins without doing much else. Some miners also consider them as "tech industrialists", after they order mining equipment and plug it in

These kinds of news can have importance to BTC's price though. What BTC currently needs is dumb money from loads and loads of people. Meaningless celebrities can actually tune BTC into this channel. The chances of smart money entering BTC is very small, but one should never underestimate the power of stupidity.

[hdbuck]

PaymentsSourceKim Kardashian's Lessons for the 'Bitcoin Card' IndustryPaymentsSourceKim Kardashian may be an overexposed reality star, but she's also a tech entrepreneur with a short-lived past in the payments industry. And several companies in the Bitcoin space are repeating her biggest mistake by offering a plastic payment card....

http://news.bitcoinial.com/news/kim-kardashians-lessons-for-the-bitcoin-card-industry-paymentssource

Damn... ALL THIS and brains too!

Mehehe they should put more plastic elsewhere..

[JorgeStolfi]

volume is at historical highs in every exchange

Say what?? Historical highs for last 24 hrs maybe.

Volume at OKcoin  was 429 kBTC on 2014-11-12, 609 kBTC on 2014-11-13.  The previous high was 286 kBTC on 2014-03-05; typical volume for several months until 2014-10-03 (start of last recovery) was ~50 kBTC/day, and 110 kBTC/day in the few weeks until 2014-11-11.

The numbers at BTC-China on those two days were 371 kBTC and 508 kBTC.  The previous high was 132 kBTC on 2013-12-07.  Typical recent volumes were ~7 kBTC/day until 2014-08-13 (when they removed the trading fees?), then growing steadily to 90 kBTC/day by 2014-11-11.

The numbers at Huobi were more modest, 211 kBTC and 232 kBTC, against a previous high of 352 kBTC on 2014-02-25.  Typical volumes were ~35 kBTC/day before 2014-10-03 and ~90 kBTC/day during the last recovery.

Bitcoin futures at BitVC (the international branch of Huobi) and "796" were also huge on those two days, on the order of 1 million BTC/day.  

I have not looked at the other big Chinese exchanges that are not listed at BitcoinWisdom.

My best guess at what happened is still that statement by the OKcoin tech guy, that "a three billion euro hedge fund is going to be trading on our platform".  Bitcoin news sites and many traders interpreted that as "the fund will start trading bitcoin", but there was no confirmation, and many were skeptical.  To me, the words "on our platform" (rather than "at our exchange") mean that they will be using OKcoin's software and/or servers to trade their shares, not bitcoin.  That would be great for OKcoin but irrelevant to bitcoin.  If this interpretation is correct, it could explain why the price crashed right after the rally, and is now returning to the pre-rally levels.

Whatever the cause, this 3-day rally and crash generated trades totaling over 1 million BTC at OKCoin, several million BTC overall.  The exchanges must have collected several million dollars in fees and interest, and arbitragers (possibly the exchanges themselves) must have made many millions too.  

If the "hedge fund" explanation is correct,  it may have been the most profitable misunderstanding in the history of bitcoin.

[aspa]

Whatever the cause, this 3-day rally and crash generated trades totaling over 1 million BTC at OKCoin, several million BTC overall.  The exchanges must have collected several million dollars in fees and interest, and arbitragers (possibly the exchanges themselves) must have made many millions too.  

Is that with or without counting all trades twice?
http://www.coindesk.com/asian-exchanges-adopt-controversial-counting-method-futures-trades/

[BayAreaCoins]

Whatever the cause, this 3-day rally and crash generated trades totaling over 1 million BTC at OKCoin, several million BTC overall.  The exchanges must have collected several million dollars in fees and interest, and arbitragers (possibly the exchanges themselves) must have made many millions too.  

Is that with or without counting all trades twice?
http://www.coindesk.com/asian-exchanges-adopt-controversial-counting-method-futures-trades/

They offer 20x margin, so every 1 coin you have... you can trade 20.

Fucking sickkkkkkkkkkk

I'm up 2btc off a 1btc deposit this evening prob lose it all, but I'm having a good time!

[Fatman3001]

The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up. 

It's absolutely crazy.

If Bitcoin is going to reach its economic potential it needs to be resistant to these manipulation attempts. In that sense the problem lies more with the immaturity of Bitcoin rather than that the world is filled with donkey holes. I am sort of surprised though at the lack of help from "early" early adopter evangelists to stabilize the currency.

[JorgeStolfi]

Whatever the cause, this 3-day rally and crash generated trades totaling over 1 million BTC at OKCoin, several million BTC overall.  The exchanges must have collected several million dollars in fees and interest, and arbitragers (possibly the exchanges themselves) must have made many millions too.  

Is that with or without counting all trades twice?
http://www.coindesk.com/asian-exchanges-adopt-controversial-counting-method-futures-trades/

In that paragraph I was not including the futures' markets like BitVC and 796.com (which, IIUC, are the only ones doing double-counting).  But the volumes during those two days were huge either way.

[wmr42393]

first green sliver on the 1 hour MACD since the $450 peak, on OKcoin, so things should start moving north again soon. 

[8up]

My best guess. No new bubble until February 2015. More time to acquire cheap coinz at around 0.38-0.40$ per 1kbits. I also think there could be one last sell-off in late december/early january reaching 0.3-0.32$ per 1kbits.

(Bitstamp)

[aspa]

In that paragraph I was not including the futures' markets like BitVC and 796.com (which, IIUC, are the only ones doing double-counting).  But the volumes during those two days were huge either way.

OK:) And indeed, huge. Still not completely calm there..

[aspa]

My best guess. No new bubble until February 2015. More time to acquire cheap coinz at around 0.38-0.40$ per 1kbits. I also think there could be one last sell-off in late december/early january reaching 0.3-0.32$ per 1kbits.

Excellent example of confirmation bias. Your bullish line is weak, little evidence it gives support. The bottoms in this chart could just as well be an inverted dish, which would mean we would be moving sideways for some months and then go down again for another 2 years..

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/283/288/a20.jpg

[wmr42393]

The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up.  

It's absolutely crazy.

You are constantly whining like a child which can not understand why do the grownups do what they do. Problem is you are stuck in the fiat logic, counting your gains/loses in fiat instead of BTC. Try to finally understand that if you had 100 BTC each worth US$ 1000 each, and you now have 110 BTC each worth 400 BTC, you have not lost 56%, you gained 10%. Try to dig that into your thick head, the current price is irrelevant, it only matters how much BTC you will have when the day comes you wouldn't have to exchange them for fiat at all. The most straightforward way for smart people to gain more BTC trading is to push the price down selling as much as they can and buy more BTC when the price hits the bottom of the dump. Not everyone can trade with leverage on Bitfinex, most people trade on all other exchanges where there is no leveraged margin trading, so every they of price rising is their day lost, and every day price falling can be a big gain for them. I don't know how to put it more simpler, please try to finally understand total non-importance of short term price drops.

I love the smell of "welcome to ignore" in the morning!!

Ignore me or not, I just can't stand any more ShroomsKit's jealousy for other people making money on dumps. All he wants is a day to dump all his BTC to his fiat bank account, and he is calling other people short-sighted, imagine that!

I think he was referring to shroomskit who has ignored, at a rough estimate... 90% of the forum.


EDIT: the bull is back finally

[deebledub]

talk about some volatility, huh