Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

Explanation

I think you should lie down buddy. You are clerly stressed out.

It's weird. This is apparently what Stamp is giving out.

[1715444098]

1715444098

[wmr42393]

Lemme help some of you new guys out.  Whenever you see things like market price setting at a fake number like $399.99, and it sits there for more than 12-24 hours without going up, you can bet that a dump is incoming.

You're welcome.

_{(I hate this stupid market, but still hodl for life)}

Ahem.

Right again.  This supposedly unpredictable market has become so predictable.

LoL, yea right. If it is so  predictable, please enlighten me and tell me what will happen next...

Sure.  More dumping incoming.

You're welcome.

If you dump here you're gonna be sorry.  But your loss is someone elses gain. 

[ejinte]

Will my order at 367 get filled?

[janos666]

Lemme help some of you new guys out.  Whenever you see things like market price setting at a fake number like $399.99, and it sits there for more than 12-24 hours without going up, you can bet that a dump is incoming.

You're welcome.

_{(I hate this stupid market, but still hodl for life)}

Ahem.

Right again.  This supposedly unpredictable market has become so predictable.

LoL, yea right. If it is so  predictable, please enlighten me and tell me what will happen next...

Sure.  More dumping incoming.

You're welcome.

If you dump here you're gonna be sorry.  But your loss is someone elses gain.  

Will see...



I think I almost nailed it with the 4h. I should have used something more andvanced than MS Paint, so I could esily refresh the background chart.

[wmr42393]

Will my order at 367 get filled?

Nope

[Erdogan]

In a steady-state system, the price of a monetary asset is given by the "quantity theory of money", which states that:

P x Q = M x V, where

P is the price of the goods, Q is the amount of goods bought by the monetary asset, M is the amount of monetary asset in circulation, and V is the average velocity (the number of times per year that a given bitcoin is used to buy something).

Dump the velocity. and you are good to go. It has to be liquid, the owner needs to know that he can easily get rid of the bitcoins, actual trades are not needed.

You cannot ignore the velocity.  If everybody would pay their bills the same day they get the money, instead of waiting to the end of the month, the same amount of trading would require 1/30 as much currency in circulation.  If the currency it bitcoin, the smaller demand would imply a lower value per BTC.
[...]

If you have money, change your mind to having a car instead; someone else having a car, but prefers holding money, then the two switched roles, and no change in demand for money or cars happened. So it depends on the seller, does he have the same wish to hold money as the buyer before he decided to buy?

[micalith]

Will my order at 367 get filled?

Nope

most likely. It's only Saturday evening GMT. The 'weekend dip' factor has only just started

[wmr42393]

Will my order at 367 get filled?

Nope

most likely. It's only Saturday evening GMT. The 'weekend dip' factor has only just started

15 min MACD will cause a reversal in 9 mins. 

and anyone that thinks the 15 min MACD is worthless, think again 

[davidorentol]

we are at CRUCIAL^TM levels that could make or break the trend reversal:

this weekend is critical

[redsn0w]

[shmadz]

Ah, what a fine morning. Many thanks to the brave traders that risk their ever building fortunes to keep the price in check. I was getting a little anxious there when virtex nearly broke above 500.

Now the silly Canadians are fiercely defending 420 

Blaze it

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NotLambchop]

[dinofelis]

In a steady-state system, the price of a monetary asset is given by the "quantity theory of money", which states that:

P x Q = M x V, where

P is the price of the goods, Q is the amount of goods bought by the monetary asset, M is the amount of monetary asset in circulation, and V is the average velocity (the number of times per year that a given bitcoin is used to buy something).

Dump the velocity. and you are good to go. It has to be liquid, the owner needs to know that he can easily get rid of the bitcoins, actual trades are not needed.

You cannot ignore the velocity.  If everybody would pay their bills the same day they get the money, instead of waiting to the end of the month, the same amount of trading would require 1/30 as much currency in circulation.  If the currency it bitcoin, the smaller demand would imply a lower value per BTC.
[...]

If you have money, change your mind to having a car instead; someone else having a car, but prefers holding money, then the two switched roles, and no change in demand for money or cars happened. So it depends on the seller, does he have the same wish to hold money as the buyer before he decided to buy?

One has to use consistent quantities Q, V, M and P of course.

So in your example, if you include the car in Q, then you have to include the money transfer in V.   Of course, if two people exchange something, you might think that that doesn't influence anything.  That would be correct if they were going to exchange, no matter what happens.  If I'm going to exchange my car with my father, who gives me money he has under his matrass instead, then this might not influence the price of cars on the car market.
However, that is not the case in general.
I will make a decision to buy a car, or to buy something else, or to hold my money, based upon several criteria, like the price of the car, my projections of getting money in the future and so on.  And it are these decisions which determine demand and offer, and settle prices.  If I think I will get money next month, I might consider buying a car.   If I think I will not get much money next month, I might reconsider buying that car.  The person supposed to give me some money next month (my employer) will have to get that money from somewhere.  Maybe by selling goods.  The price he will get from his goods will depend on how much money people are willing to give.  And so on.

So, exchanges, or better, the arbitration between different possible exchanges (or not), determine offer and demand, and hence price.  So they are not "neutral to price" except if there is no choice and they are going to happen no matter what.

[hyphymikey]

Dear controllers of bitcoin price:

Please wait until next year to start the next bubble. I graduate from college next month and start my new job Jan 28th. I would like to buy at least 10K USD worth before you make it more expensive.

Thanks,
Hyphymikey

PS. If you have to have a bubble before then, at least bring the price back down to pre-bubble levels (which has never happened before, I know)

[Bagatell]

Will my order at 367 get filled?

Nope

most likely. It's only Saturday evening GMT. The 'weekend dip' factor has only just started

15 min MACD will cause a reversal in 9 mins. 

and anyone that thinks the 15 min MACD is worthless, think again 

That worked well! lol

[janos666]

Will my order at 367 get filled?

Nope

most likely. It's only Saturday evening GMT. The 'weekend dip' factor has only just started

15 min MACD will cause a reversal in 9 mins.  

and anyone that thinks the 15 min MACD is worthless, think again  

I consider the 4h MACD risky in case you want to go against the 1d MACD and/or it's not steep enough. And I like to take a quick look at the 4h StochRSI as well as a secondary source of judgment (and 1d RSI as a tertiary).
I think 15m MACD is more like noise. The sampling range is too narrow to filter the random noise by averaging. It doesn't tell anything more than taking a quick look at the raw data points to form an opinion for yourself.

[Erdogan]

In a steady-state system, the price of a monetary asset is given by the "quantity theory of money", which states that:

P x Q = M x V, where

P is the price of the goods, Q is the amount of goods bought by the monetary asset, M is the amount of monetary asset in circulation, and V is the average velocity (the number of times per year that a given bitcoin is used to buy something).

Dump the velocity. and you are good to go. It has to be liquid, the owner needs to know that he can easily get rid of the bitcoins, actual trades are not needed.

You cannot ignore the velocity.  If everybody would pay their bills the same day they get the money, instead of waiting to the end of the month, the same amount of trading would require 1/30 as much currency in circulation.  If the currency it bitcoin, the smaller demand would imply a lower value per BTC.
[...]

If you have money, change your mind to having a car instead; someone else having a car, but prefers holding money, then the two switched roles, and no change in demand for money or cars happened. So it depends on the seller, does he have the same wish to hold money as the buyer before he decided to buy?

One has to use consistent quantities Q, V, M and P of course.

So in your example, if you include the car in Q, then you have to include the money transfer in V.   Of course, if two people exchange something, you might think that that doesn't influence anything.  That would be correct if they were going to exchange, no matter what happens.  If I'm going to exchange my car with my father, who gives me money he has under his matrass instead, then this might not influence the price of cars on the car market.
However, that is not the case in general.
I will make a decision to buy a car, or to buy something else, or to hold my money, based upon several criteria, like the price of the car, my projections of getting money in the future and so on.  And it are these decisions which determine demand and offer, and settle prices.  If I think I will get money next month, I might consider buying a car.   If I think I will not get much money next month, I might reconsider buying that car.  The person supposed to give me some money next month (my employer) will have to get that money from somewhere.  Maybe by selling goods.  The price he will get from his goods will depend on how much money people are willing to give.  And so on.

So, exchanges, or better, the arbitration between different possible exchanges (or not), determine offer and demand, and hence price.  So they are not "neutral to price" except if there is no choice and they are going to happen no matter what.

It is neutral, in my case when everything that happened was a change of roles. If the seller turns around and uses his money, and also everyone down the road, then there will be a cascade of exchanges. If down the road, some seller should just keep the money, the situation is restored.

In the end it means that it is the aggregate demand to hold money (and the aggregate demand to hold anything else, which is just the inverse, or the supply of money), that decides what the money is worth. Not the transactions.

The velocity does not include financial transactions. Money is never produced or never consumed (sound money, that is), so the velocity is a number that tries to express the trade in the production chain. That is, it is fundamenentally expressing the same as GDP. It is never measured, it is computed. It is basically useless for thinking about the value of bitcoin.

[barbs]

Bitcoin = pump and dump scam coin   

[podyx]

Looks like a mini bubble of december 2013 imo