It is too late for the US government to jump it. Bitcoin is now an industry in the US and they will face a colossal fuck up if they even attempt to squash it for what would be very anti-constitutional reasons.
I think you severely, severely underestimate the power of the financial-governmental complex. As long as the kids are playing in the park, they'll let you do. Once you are threatening their lucrative business of pumping productivity of the economy in the hands of their elite, all means are good to kill you. Wars have been fought over much less.
You think the old-boys networks of banksters and government are going to let this happen ?
Why not? It shields your wealth from inflation and keep it out of the hands of banks and mobsters. Buying power? Someone has informed you already but it is worth repeating that Bitcoin can buy any of the top major world currencies at extremely favorable exchange rates.
.... as long as the banks and mobsters allow you to !
I do not suggest that Bitcoin would become the one an only store of value but yes I do envision it become the unique money. Of course the probability is very low but the mere fact that it exists is what is responsible for that potential "to the moon" growth and therefore will continue to attract investors.
Ok, so the real market expectation is then the "full moon" times the small probability (and reduced with a risk aversion factor).
Now, what is full moon ? 50 trillion dollars or something (all M2 fiat in the world) market cap. 10 000 times more than today (at same velocity). $ 3 million per bitcoin grossly.
What probability ? 1% ? 0.1% ?
Risk aversion ? 1/10 ?
Then we are within a factor of 1 or 10 of the current price :-)
You are severely underestimating the power of network effect and technology adoption. It is not a slow, linear growth. It is exponential and once we go vertical (following the typical technology adoption s-curve) then it is hyper-exponential.
Most technology adoption didn't have a flame-throwing dragon the size of US government and the banking sector fighting for its privileges in front of him :-)
But ok, I hope you're right.
And the realistic answer to that is either 0,01%-1% or 95-100%. There is no in between.
I know. I bet on the first. 1% would already be huge. 1% of 50 trillion is 500 billion. 100 times the actual market cap.
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