Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Let me guess. You own ripple and are short bitcoin. You also called bitcoin a pyramid scheme bizarrely to support your argument in some way.

GTFO.

Calm down man. Relax. Read the post above.


I didn't call bitcoin a pyramid scheme. I said the "pyramid scheme aspect of bitcoin". Some bitcoiners don't want BTC to be replaced by something else because they wanna get rich quick because they think BTC will be traded a lot higher in the future (while sweeping its problems under the rug). That's not like saying that BTC is all just a pyramid scheme.

There's a "pyramid scheme aspect" with any stock for that matter.

The network [insert alternative to BTC and Blockchain here] could die tomorrow for all I know, my point would still be valid.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[silverfuture]

That "pyramid scheme element" is really just incentive. Without work done to produce the unit and incentive (expectation of greater future value) to participate, why adopt? No coin will adopt to mainstream without incentive and an initial hardcore (fanatical) fan base to keep it strong until critical mass is reached. Ripple shills (meaning the ones who post in the bitcoin wall observer thread, not the ripple wall observer thread) are so excited to pronounce ripple's big  (p)/(j)ump in value and at the same time proclaim volatility is a problem. You can't have it both ways.

Competition is a good thing for bitcoin and it won't deserve to survive if it can't smash the competition. I'm confident it will

[Wandererfromthenorth]

That "pyramid scheme element" is really just incentive. Without work done to produce the unit and incentive (expectation of greater future value) to participate, why adopt? No coin will adopt to mainstream without incentive and an initial hardcore (fanatical) fan base to keep it strong until critical mass is reached. Ripple shills (meaning the ones who post in the bitcoin wall observer thread, not the ripple wall observer thread) are so excited to pronounce ripple's big  (p)/(j)ump in value and at the same time proclaim volatility is a problem. You can't have it both ways.

Competition is a good thing for bitcoin and it won't deserve to survive if it can't smash the competition. I'm confident it will

Why that focus on ripple in the first place? My post said that because of BTC and Blockchain problems, BTC will probably be replaced by something better in the future. I just mentioned ripple because it's a protocol that tries to do something different.

For the millionth time:

The network [insert alternative to BTC and Blockchain here] could die tomorrow for all I know, my point would still be valid.

Who said that volatility is the main problem with BTC? The real issues with BTC and the Blockchain are others, not necessarily volatility...
Do I need to re-post them?

[buddhamangler]

The Blockchain solution to decentralisation is a broken one, and BTC is not viable as a currency long term (for the reasons posted many times before and that I listed few days ago).
At the same time, it cannot e replaced by a shitcoin that, behind the gimmicky features (being anonymous, slightly faster transaction times,  etc), shares the same fundamental issues.

It will be replaced by something that works in very different ways to avoid the BTC and Blockchain fuck ups.
For one, it will need to be a decentralised network that allows any existing currency or anything else of VALUE (that cannot be double spent) to be "put in the network" easily and in a frictionless way.

Similar protocols exist today (like Ripple), if they won't be the future specifically, something else that works in very similar ways, will.


And I know that you don't wanna hear stuff like this because you wanna get rich quick with the pyramid scheme aspect of Bitcoin... At least don't lie to yourself.

Ripple is not decentralized you nitwit.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

The Blockchain solution to decentralisation is a broken one, and BTC is not viable as a currency long term (for the reasons posted many times before and that I listed few days ago).
At the same time, it cannot e replaced by a shitcoin that, behind the gimmicky features (being anonymous, slightly faster transaction times,  etc), shares the same fundamental issues.

It will be replaced by something that works in very different ways to avoid the BTC and Blockchain fuck ups.
For one, it will need to be a decentralised network that allows any existing currency or anything else of VALUE (that cannot be double spent) to be "put in the network" easily and in a frictionless way.

Similar protocols exist today (like Ripple), if they won't be the future specifically, something else that works in very similar ways, will.


And I know that you don't wanna hear stuff like this because you wanna get rich quick with the pyramid scheme aspect of Bitcoin... At least don't lie to yourself.

Ripple is not decentralized you nitwit.

Transactions are carried out in a decentralised way (the main idea behind the original satoshi paper, that you don't need a trusted third party for transactions to go through), only the distribution of XRP the currency is centralised.

Try again.


Can we please stop talking about ripple? If you think I'm saying with certainty that ripple is the future and BTC will die, you either didn't read my posts or you didn't understand what I said.

[buddhamangler]

The Blockchain solution to decentralisation is a broken one, and BTC is not viable as a currency long term (for the reasons posted many times before and that I listed few days ago).
At the same time, it cannot e replaced by a shitcoin that, behind the gimmicky features (being anonymous, slightly faster transaction times,  etc), shares the same fundamental issues.

It will be replaced by something that works in very different ways to avoid the BTC and Blockchain fuck ups.
For one, it will need to be a decentralised network that allows any existing currency or anything else of VALUE (that cannot be double spent) to be "put in the network" easily and in a frictionless way.

Similar protocols exist today (like Ripple), if they won't be the future specifically, something else that works in very similar ways, will.


And I know that you don't wanna hear stuff like this because you wanna get rich quick with the pyramid scheme aspect of Bitcoin... At least don't lie to yourself.

Ripple is not decentralized you nitwit.

Transactions are carried out in a decentralised way (the main idea behind the original satoshi paper, that you don't need a trusted third party), only the distribution of XRP the currency is centralised.

Try again.


Can we please stop talking about ripple? If you think I'm saying with certainty that ripple is the future and BTC will die, you either didn't read my posts or you didn't understand what I said.

If by decentralized you mean by gateways that can and will exert control on your centrally distributed currency, then sure, its decentralized.  Have fun with that.  /s

[silverfuture]

Why that focus on ripple in the first place? My post said that because of BTC and Blockchain problems, BTC will probably be replaced by something better in the future. I just mentioned ripple because it's a protocol that tries to do something different.

Because I looked through your recent post history for the reasons that bitcoin was flawed you mentioned (since you didn't give a link). Pretty much every post had something pro ripple in it. Then you come here to disparage bitcoin in the wall observer thread to say something else will displace it.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

The forum is riddled with Ripple spam this morning for some reason

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NotLambchop]

^
Don't do anything stupid, ChartBuddy...



You too, gentlemen.  My indifference towards your tragic plight is but a facade--My heart breaks for you gentlemen, I worry...

P.S:  Good morning my friends!


.@BlindMayorBitcorn below:  My point exactly!  You can start afresh in a new country, with a new name--no one need ever know about your embarrassing Bitcoiner past.
I hear the Nazis other reputable Bitcoiners have had good luck in Argentina, perhaps try there?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

^
Don't do anything stupid, ChartBuddy...



You too, gentlemen.  My indifference towards your tragic plight is but a facade--My heart breaks for you gentlemen, I worry...

It's only money, brother

[Erdogan]

Some people calling them selves anti.. think that they just can come here and... come here!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

^
Don't do anything stupid, ChartBuddy...



You too, gentlemen.  My indifference towards your tragic plight is but a facade--My heart breaks for you gentlemen, I worry...

P.S:  Good morning my friends!


.@BlindMayorBitcorn below:  My point exactly!  You can start afresh in a new country, with a new name--no one need ever know about your embarrassing Bitcoiner past.
I hear the Nazis other reputable Bitcoiners have had good luck in Argentina, perhaps try there?

[oda.krell]

We're starting to go in circles...

They are not minor problems... The USD volume (minus changebacks) is flat since April, and still less than January

USD tx is "flat" only from a very shallow analysis. Looking at it in more detail, we see it drastically fell from a peak value in December last year, with one intermediate spike in March, to a low point in May, and has been rising since then despite falling price.

USD tx going up since May despite falling price means one thing and one thing only: usage is going up since then.

Sorry if that doesn't fit your narrative, but it's about as close to a fact as you can get, given our imperfect ways to observe the economic network size.

Yes, I will give the same spiel again.  As I wrote before,  adoption surely increased from 2012 to 2013 to 2014. But I do not see any clear signs that adoption has been increasing over the last year.  The most germane indicators that you use as evidence of year-to-year increase show a decrease and stagnation since January.

Bitpay went from 5 million USD per month to 30 million per month from mid 2013 to mid 2014, and you're "not seeing any clear signs adoption is increasing". That's really pretty funny... Let me try to drive home my point that you're cherry picking now:

Is there a climatology department at your university? Maybe go over there in a year when the latest climate data does not show an increase in average temperate or some other metric that is used in the global climate models, and tell them that it looks like climate change/global warming is over, since their latest data point doesn't show a continuation of the trend. See how they'll laugh as they you show you the door.

I'm being a bit facetious here, the Bitcoin market trend is less established (and less researched) than climate trends, but the principle is the same:

If there has been a strong, clear trend of about 5 years, you cannot conclude from a weaker subtrend of a few months that the larger trend has reversed.

You can be "skeptical" perhaps based on the latest data points, but the global assessment still has to be driven by the global trend, not the local one.


I'll summarize:

Fact: Adoption is way up from 2010 (when the network went live on a global scale).

Fact: The latest available data that is indisputably in favor of growing adoption is from mid 2013 to mid 2014 (e.g. Bitpay).

Fact: The intra-2014 data is less conclusive, showing both signs of falling trends and rising trends.

Conclusion: If in one or two years from now, the numbers (like USD tx, Bitpay/Coinbase volume) are stagnant compared to now, we could perhaps conclude adoption halted. But as of December 2014, it is a safe conclusion, given the data, that adoption has been growing.

[inca]

Hear hear Oda.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[macsga]

Hear hear Oda.

Solid reasoning vs Speculation: 1-0 

[Tzupy]

The "adoption" is actually early adopters spending their bitcoins and increasing bitcoin liquidity on the exchanges, resulting in more seller pressure and lower prices.
I find quit likely that 1 - 2 months from now the ask sum on exchanges to almost double. Bears rejoice over increased "adoption".

[NotLambchop]

Hear hear Oda.

Solid reasoning vs Speculation: 1-0 

The Bitcoin Brain Trust likes your reasoning, Oda.  Well done!