Is trading just educated guessing?

[Mbokani]

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Educated guessing, I will agree with you because for someone to make an educated decision then you must have gotten education and the process is not one that is cheap and in the case of gambling, it means thorough understanding and learning of how stocks work, how to know the right time to buy and sell, even insider info is another source of education because being in the right place at the right time is also another form of educated decision.

You really do not need to be a rocket scientist to be a good trader. If you really wanted to be a good trader you just need to follow the development team closely and you must understand what their plans are and the price will change accordingly and if you can follow them you can make a lot of money from trading .

[vrm86]

Technical analysis tries to predict incoming situation based on historical data, which is still guessing and predicting. What it gives, is some justification of made choices, it can make easier to explain why you decided to take such action, with that stake and that risk. Trading is more about psychology and luck, than any technical skill. If you resist doubt, fear, greed or temptation in right moment, you can minimize risk a bit, or secure your bankroll from significant loss.

[kryptqnick]

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

I think you can't be sure anyway, because there is no such thing as 'insider info', especially when we talk about trading coins. You can look at the price dynamics, halving times, casinos' recognition and the rest is just luck. In this way I think it is a lot like gambling since you are likely to lose as well as get addicted to it. I think 'educated guessing' is a good definiton of trading in any case. The only things we can know about are some obvious ones like that Apple will be as popular in a week as it is now. But this won't help making business.

[calkob]

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

I do think that Technical analysis is alot of luck and a bit of mumbo jumbo, that said i really believe in looking at the fundamentals and then using that information to trade wisely.  take bitcoin for example, who really knows what people will do later in the year based on a candlestick chart, answer "no one".  But i look at the fundamentals of bitcoin then i really think that this year bitcoin will rise in price.  its that simple in my opinion.

[bravehearth0319]

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

What kind of question is that, If you really want to know or learn about in trading you must do your own research about it. All expert traders here they didn't get this title just because of educating guessing only, that was totally wrong of thinking. And if ever you fail in doing trade just keep this in mind that "Fail is a one step ahead closer to success"

[pearnapple]

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Educated guessing, I will agree with you because for someone to make an educated decision then you must have gotten education and the process is not one that is cheap and in the case of gambling, it means thorough understanding and learning of how stocks work, how to know the right time to buy and sell, even insider info is another source of education because being in the right place at the right time is also another form of educated decision.

You really do not need to be a rocket scientist to be a good trader. If you really wanted to be a good trader you just need to follow the development team closely and you must understand what their plans are and the price will change accordingly and if you can follow them you can make a lot of money from trading .

well if you wouldn't need to be an expert to be a good trader then everyone would be rich out of it, as long as there are not a lot people rich it means that you need to be really good, I think trading is definitely like gambling and not always depends on the skills you have, if you are unlucky you will never manage to make any profit out of it, that's why I nearly don't do it at all.

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

What kind of question is that, If you really want to know or learn about in trading you must do your own research about it. All expert traders here they didn't get this title just because of educating guessing only, that was totally wrong of thinking. And if ever you fail in doing trade just keep this in mind that "Fail is a one step ahead closer to success"

it depends on what are you trading, if you have no luck the readings and knowledge won't help. Especially if others are trading with some insider information.

[CROYA86]

I am very confident with trading will benefit if we could read his chart market, because of the data that we can know which direction his trade up or down its price will be discovered in the next few hours when we use 4H MACD.

[DevelopFI]

I often see the mentioned that only 1% of forex traders manage to make profits for a long period of time. What this shows is the fact that while it IS possible, it isn't as easy as a lot of people would have you believe. Only the best of the best earn enough to live off and it takes years to get to that point.

[mace15]

Trading is not an educated guessing, its also added continous learning that will enhance our knowledge on how we can manage our time well. Even pro traders made mistakes on trading because of emotions during trading. Its not easy it will takes determination also so we can get earn profit well.

[DoublerHunter]

Trading is not an educated guessing, its also added continous learning that will enhance our knowledge on how we can manage our time well. Even pro traders made mistakes on trading because of emotions during trading. Its not easy it will takes determination also so we can get earn profit well.

Yes that is true. Trading always requires continuous learning if we want to be successful in trading field. I also agree that even the most pro trader also makes mistake because no one is perfect and it can be the cause of his emotions or wrong analysis but he can minimize that risk of getting loss by studying the market more and engaging better analyzation and better decision making.

[ethereumhunter]

Trading is not an educated guessing, its also added continous learning that will enhance our knowledge on how we can manage our time well. Even pro traders made mistakes on trading because of emotions during trading. Its not easy it will takes determination also so we can get earn profit well.

Yes that is true. Trading always requires continuous learning if we want to be successful in trading field. I also agree that even the most pro trader also makes mistake because no one is perfect and it can be the cause of his emotions or wrong analysis but he can minimize that risk of getting loss by studying the market more and engaging better analyzation and better decision making.

beside that we need to learn from time to time so we can mastered it and the most important is we can make big profit from trading. its not good if we only just guessing in how much the price will be up because no one will know about this and if we learn in the chart then i think we can predict when the price is up and down and we can place order buy and order sell.

[jhannlenris]

Guessing is not a good criteria to invest because to do traiding you must have enough knowledge and information for traiding bitcoin. I read an article that can help you to understand the risk of doing bitcoin trading may be it can help
https://medium.com/@Magnr/5-tips-for-successful-bitcoin-trading-5c6bfcb6dd2b#.v2i1572ii

[Monnt]

we need to learn from time to time so we can mastered it and the most important is we can make big profit from trading. its not good if we only just guessing in how much the price will be up because no one will know about this and if we learn in the chart then i think we can predict when the price is up and down and we can place order buy and order sell.

Continuous learning is an integral part of good trading experience. Without learning we cannot improve our prediction capability according to new market fluctuations. We cannot expect bitcoin trading or any other trading to behave in a  similar manner all the times. Market is always known for giving surprises and shocking so it is our responsibility to improve our prediction capability.

Some may call this as just a guessing work, but actually is it is beyond the guessing because it is based on some fundamental calculations.

[deisik]

I often see the mentioned that only 1% of forex traders manage to make profits for a long period of time. What this shows is the fact that while it IS possible, it isn't as easy as a lot of people would have you believe. Only the best of the best earn enough to live off and it takes years to get to that point

And these 1% might well be banks

Banks will make profits  at Forex no matter where the price might move since when they either buy or sell they are already fixing profits that they earned on their clients before. This is essentially the same with other markets too. Not all markets are a zero-sum game, but if they are, that basically means that those who are making profits (the said 1% of profit takers) are leaving the rest of the trading folk with losses. It is hard to beat the banks but still not impossible. George Soros did exactly that, i.e. made the Bank of England bite the dust in the early 1990s

[iv4n]

Education and guessing can't go in same sentence, education is experience and years of learning, guessing is pure gambling. I'm sure that educated traders have mistakes, no one make profit on every trade, but I would not say that they are guessers.

I often see the mentioned that only 1% of forex traders manage to make profits for a long period of time. What this shows is the fact that while it IS possible, it isn't as easy as a lot of people would have you believe. Only the best of the best earn enough to live off and it takes years to get to that point.

This information shows that with guessing you can't make profit just with wild guessing, I wonder how many percent of gamblers make profit, more then with trading? At least couple more percents I'm sure.

[mindrust]

That's true. The more educated you are, more accurate guesses you make. A blind monkey can make guesses too. But based on which information? If you aren't informed about the subject, its only gambling.

Sometimes you may be misinformed or less informed and because of that you don't succeed every trade you do. If you knew everything, you would have owned everything on earth.

So you need to be an educated person but being educated doesn't mean that you'll always be successful. On the other hand, being uneducated will most likely guarantee your failure. (there is still a small chance for a stupid monkey to be successful)

Why is education so important? Because the people you are competing with (they are your competitors when you make trades) are also trying to be smarter. In the end, the smartest dude makes the most money.

[Denker]

Not really, i won't called it as guessing but more of speculating, when you are guessing you don't have anything to support your answer, but when you speculating you have the reason and proof why the price is going to up or going down, and when you trade you need to speculate not guess, because when you guess, you won't learn anything

And what about an educated guess?
It's a question of how you define words like speculating ans guessing I would say.
Fact is that without any background in trading or finance in general you will mostly lose all.
So knowledge is needed. But what is more important is experience!And that you can only get over time!
It's learning and getting better by doing! Especially in terms of market behaviour and psychology.

[NEWGOODOUBLE]

Trading is not an educated guessing, its also added continous learning that will enhance our knowledge on how we can manage our time well. Even pro traders made mistakes on trading because of emotions during trading. Its not easy it will takes determination also so we can get earn profit well.

The trade is not entirely a guess as gambling. You have to do the analysis on altcoin who want you to buy. and when they want to sell you also have to do the analysis. it is not just a guess

[milewilda]

Trading is not an educated guessing, its also added continous learning that will enhance our knowledge on how we can manage our time well. Even pro traders made mistakes on trading because of emotions during trading. Its not easy it will takes determination also so we can get earn profit well.

The trade is not entirely a guess as gambling. You have to do the analysis on altcoin who want you to buy. and when they want to sell you also have to do the analysis. it is not just a guess

Not only on altcoin trading but all currencies and other field as long its being traded. Guessing is just like really a pure gambling since you are choosing without any basis and analysis. Trading does really require knowledge and analysis and if you dont have these things you will surely have a hard time to trade or being profitable on this field.

[machinek20]

I think trading is more than educated guessing, there are no specific formula in trading, all is based on your experience and your skill in reading situation, so you can only learn the basic from the book, to really become a trader you need to do the trade not only by book, educated gueesing can help you in trading but you need to combine it with knowledge and experience to make it successful