(Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed)

[jubalix]

can some on explain, if this bot worked to acquire more btc, why would you need to even bother selling it...?

Hi Jubalix ,
   It's not really "if" the bot works, the math behind the bot is solid and EMA is a well known algorithm. We have based the bots logic behind "Gomboo's Thread" which is one of the most respected trading discussions of EMA as applied to Bitcoin anywhere by one of the most respected members of the Bitcoin community. The thread has a complete explanation of the math behind the bot and why it is profitable over time.

Please take a look here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0

As to why we sell it: We are a service provider. Why does ASICMINER sell shares when they are clearly profitable on their own? To raise capital for continued development. We use our own product, one which we continually upgrade and work on. Like ASICMINER, we would make money by trading on our own but providing the B-Bot service allows as to develop the bot beyond what we otherwise could for our benefit and the benefit of all the members of our community.

Please let me know if I may be of service in the meantime .

Pablo.

Thank you for such a polite answer

I think the maths/logic however may disprove EMA or any other method for several reasons

[1] Essentially any system is trying to time travel to the future and convey that in formation to the present.
[2] If any system did work then everyone would be forced to adopt that system. Not every one can profit over time as all trades balance out to a zero sum of losses and profits as every seller requires a buyer thus the as every one switched to that system, it would cancel out its winning effect
[3] the compounding effect of even small repeatable wining strategy e.g. even 0.5% or 0.05% a day would soon have you owning the whole market. This has not happened in any market...

I accept maybe everyone is not using EMA so this may not have kicked in yet for [2]

[fible1]

Pablo should we be concerned?  My bot "seems" to be working but every time now that I click on it, it has the error on the top trying to reconnect?


But if I just mouse over it, I can see my balance ok...  Almost like its not really having issue but saying its having API issues???


Also looks like it did a buy at 1 or 2 am this morning ok..  I went to bed short and now I am long..


So what should we do???


  Thanks!

Same issue here Kuroth. My bot missed the entry to buy this morning on mtgox several times because of the API issue. Then, because it "holds" the buy order until the API is up again, it did so when BTC was a $1 more than it had sold it for the day before. Not the bots fault, but its just frustrating. I know that you have to be patient with the EMA trading strategy, but this whole API thing is a real bummer.

The bot seems to want to do its job, unfortunately however, the mtgox API is making it a losing strategy at this point.

Hey Guys,
   The Gox API has always been pretty bad, as those of you running the Beta know, we were able to mitigate API lag very well for the past couple of weeks as you should have seen no issues whatsoever. The fact now is that the API is not only lagged, which we can mitigate, but completely down, which leaves us with few if any options. We are still looking at how we can improve this situation but we may have to wait for it to pass. I would encourage those who are able to trade on BTC-E which never has API issues.

Please be aware that the bot will recover from the Mt. Gox issues automatically once the API is accessible again.

We are taking this problem very seriously and I am personally concerned with your posts; we will do everything possible to improve this situation.

If anyone has any concerns they would like to discuss on a one to one basis, please drop me an email:

Pablo@btcbots.com

Pablo.

[Kuroth]

Pablo should we be concerned?  My bot "seems" to be working but every time now that I click on it, it has the error on the top trying to reconnect?


But if I just mouse over it, I can see my balance ok...  Almost like its not really having issue but saying its having API issues???


Also looks like it did a buy at 1 or 2 am this morning ok..  I went to bed short and now I am long..


So what should we do???


  Thanks!

Same issue here Kuroth. My bot missed the entry to buy this morning on mtgox several times because of the API issue. Then, because it "holds" the buy order until the API is up again, it did so when BTC was a $1 more than it had sold it for the day before. Not the bots fault, but its just frustrating. I know that you have to be patient with the EMA trading strategy, but this whole API thing is a real bummer.

The bot seems to want to do its job, unfortunately however, the mtgox API is making it a losing strategy at this point.

Hey Guys,
   The Gox API has always been pretty bad, as those of you running the Beta know, we were able to mitigate API lag very well for the past couple of weeks as you should have seen no issues whatsoever. The fact now is that the API is not only lagged, which we can mitigate, but completely down, which leaves us with few if any options. We are still looking at how we can improve this situation but we may have to wait for it to pass. I would encourage those who are able to trade on BTC-E which never has API issues.

Please be aware that the bot will recover from the Mt. Gox issues automatically once the API is accessible again.

We are taking this problem very seriously and I am personally concerned with your posts; we will do everything possible to improve this situation.

If anyone has any concerns they would like to discuss on a one to one basis, please drop me an email:

Pablo@btcbots.com

Pablo.

Thanks Pablo..

We know its not yours guys fault..

I am really thinking about moving over to BTC-E...

[fible1]

can some on explain, if this bot worked to acquire more btc, why would you need to even bother selling it...?

Hi Jubalix ,
   It's not really "if" the bot works, the math behind the bot is solid and EMA is a well known algorithm. We have based the bots logic behind "Gomboo's Thread" which is one of the most respected trading discussions of EMA as applied to Bitcoin anywhere by one of the most respected members of the Bitcoin community. The thread has a complete explanation of the math behind the bot and why it is profitable over time.

Please take a look here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0

As to why we sell it: We are a service provider. Why does ASICMINER sell shares when they are clearly profitable on their own? To raise capital for continued development. We use our own product, one which we continually upgrade and work on. Like ASICMINER, we would make money by trading on our own but providing the B-Bot service allows as to develop the bot beyond what we otherwise could for our benefit and the benefit of all the members of our community.

Please let me know if I may be of service in the meantime .

Pablo.

Thank you for such a polite answer

I think the maths/logic however may disprove EMA or any other method for several reasons

[1] Essentially any system is trying to time travel to the future and convey that in formation to the present.
[2] If any system did work then everyone would be forced to adopt that system. Not every one can profit over time as all trades balance out to a zero sum of losses and profits as every seller requires a buyer thus the as every one switched to that system, it would cancel out its winning effect
[3] the compounding effect of even small repeatable wining strategy e.g. even 0.5% or 0.05% a day would soon have you owning the whole market. This has not happened in any market...

I accept maybe everyone is not using EMA so this may not have kicked in yet for [2]

Hi again Jubalix ,

Let me take your points one at a time:

1. There is a misunderstanding here, EMA does not attempt to travel into the future and apply the information to the present. Rather, it takes historical data, processes it through its algorithm and applies this information to attempt to identify a trend in the present. I am not aware of any system that attempts to time travel into the future and convey the data into the present, because that is, well, impossible. Best case, you can take present data and attempt to make an estimation of the future. To repeat though, EMA takes historical data and processes it to try to identify trends in the immediate present, which strikes me as perfectly reasonable.

2. I agree that this wouldn't apply as not everyone is using EMA, but also, when you consider the day trading bots large banks and clearinghouses use, you realize that it's not a matter of how many people adopt it but rather a matter of how much of the market these people can move, even with a perfect (theoretical) system. Bitcoin is a billion dollar market, I don't think we could put together enough players within any system to effect the market, even assuming a theoretical, perfect system which does not exist. When you realize that the market is very large to move and that no system is perfect (effective systems tend to be profitable, not infallible), it becomes clear this is a moot point.

3. This isn't true for the same reasons discussed in point 2. Furthermore, you seem to be discounting all trading systems, not just EMA. It is a point of fact that there are effective trading systems (again, effective does not mean infallible which you seem to assume), even a cursory review of Gomboo's thread, which I believe I linked before, would reveal to you a whole host of effective trading systems. Commercial banks and clearing houses have devoted their existences to trading systems. Yes, there have been big issues with these, but overall most of the systems used have been profitable when measured over time, otherwise this institutions would not exist, furthermore, traders would not exist as the whole market would be a large casino.

Please let me know if I may be of service in any other way .

Pablo.

[dresdenreader]

Huh, I guess this must be the one time where everyone else had issues and I didn't.

After much discourse with you guys I eventually just threw in my hat and went with the 0, 0.25 settings. And this morning, I see that I got an email saying it was imminent shortly after the crossover, and then I didn't get a trigger email until the second threshold had been met, and it was able to process my transaction without issue.

Out of curiosity, could this issue possibly be based on transaction size?

All of my transactions have been under 1000 USD/10 BTC, are you guys running with a much bigger bankroll?

[Pangia]

Thanks for your response Pablo.

Your bot works very well. I've already made back what I paid for it (3x) with it's first trade. I'm sure that there will be loses in the future, but that's part of the EMA strategy.  But to reiterate, your trading bot works VERY WELL!!!

It's mtgox that's messing things up as usually.

Thanks again.

[Pangia]

Huh, I guess this must be the one time where everyone else had issues and I didn't.

After much discourse with you guys I eventually just threw in my hat and went with the 0, 0.25 settings. And this morning, I see that I got an email saying it was imminent shortly after the crossover, and then I didn't get a trigger email until the second threshold had been met, and it was able to process my transaction without issue.

Out of curiosity, could this issue possibly be based on transaction size?

All of my transactions have been under 1000 USD/10 BTC, are you guys running with a much bigger bankroll?

I'm playing around with $2500. But I don't think that it's the transaction size.  Since yesterday, there's been an error message displayed by the bot stating that "an error occurred while loading the mtgox funds". It goes away for a few seconds and then comes back for hours. It's still on as I type this.  When it's up the bot can conduct any transactions through mtgox.  The late sell and late buy that it executed occurred hours after the initial "imminent buy/sell" transaction email, missing several hours where it could have executed the trade, if mtgox's API were functioning properly.

Getting gox-ed as usual.

The bot is very smart and works well though.

[Kuroth]

Pablo sent you a PM..  My Bot License key is no longer working?


Actually getting 2 errors. Not sure if they are related..


1.  Error connection to BTCBOTS.com API....    Never seen this error..

2.  Invalid License Key..


Connection to Mt Gox seems ok at the moment..

[dresdenreader]

So at least for me, the logic makes complete sense as to what happened for me.

At 1:01 AM I got this email:

EMA diff is at 0.011% (1 BTC = 95.42 USD) at mtgox.

A buy order is imminent!

The corresponding number on the Bot chart was:
1:00   95.420   94.617   94.607   0.011%

Then, I got this email at 6:01 AM:
EMA diff is at 0.291% (1 BTC = 95.89997 USD) at mtgox.

A buy order was triggered.

The corresponding number on the Bot chart was:
6:00   95.900   95.264   94.988   0.291%

When I check MtGox, my buy order was sent at the correct time as well:
2013/07/28 06:00:35

It bought at the correct time for me, which is 6:00 AM.

[fible1]

Pablo sent you a PM..  My Bot License key is no longer working?


Actually getting 2 errors. Not sure if they are related..


1.  Error connection to BTCBOTS.com API....    Never seen this error..

2.  Invalid License Key..


Connection to Mt Gox seems ok at the moment..

Kuroth,
   Hey, yep, getting back to you right now; I think you are using an incorrect license key, I'm sending you one by PM right now .

Pablo.

[Kuroth]

Never mind..  I figured our my license key..  Doh.....  


But I was about to switch over to BTC-E but why is BTC prices $10 less there?  If I switch over I instantly lose money...  ugggggg  

[Kuroth]

Also..  Not sure it helps but I created a new API key and secret on Mt Gox..   So far it seems better..

[XZed]

Don't know why, but bot didn't buy BTC as wanted.

Perhaps, there's a problem with BTC-e ?

[fible1]

Don't know why, but bot didn't buy BTC as wanted.

Perhaps, there's a problem with BTC-e ?

Please PM me your bot table and your threshold settings and I will take a look ASAP .

Pablo.

[XZed]

Please PM me your bot table and your threshold settings and I will take a look ASAP .

Pablo.

Thank you for such perfect support

[XZed]

Thank you very much Pablo for helping me.

It works like a charm .

[fible1]

Thank you very much Pablo for helping me.

It works like a charm .

Perfect .

Please let me know if you need anything else .

Pablo.

[Kuroth]

Also..  Not sure it helps but I created a new API key and secret on Mt Gox..   So far it seems better..

Update...  No this did not really seem to help..

[dresdenreader]

BTC E Bot didn't buy, it definitely should have.
12:00   89.185   88.406   88.150   0.290% (This is over 0.25, and I should have gotten a buy order triggered, but instead I got an imminent notification)
11:00   88.987   88.233   88.047   0.211% (This is over zero, I should have gotten an imminent notification.)
10:00   88.544   88.066   87.953   0.128% (This is over zero, I should have gotten an imminent notification.)
9:00   88.601   87.959   87.894   0.075% (This is over zero, I should have gotten an imminent notification.)

My settings:
Buy Threshold 1: 0
Buy Threshold 2: 0.25

I should have gotten a "Buy is imminent" email at 9:00 since 0.075 is higher than 0.
I should have gotten a "Buy order has been triggered" email at 12:00 since 0.29% is higher than 0.25%

Instead, I got the following:
EMA diff is at 0.29% (1 BTC = 89.185 USD) at btce.
A buy order is imminent!

In this exact same situation this morning with Mt Gox the bot initiated a buy imminent and buy trigger at the correct times using the exact same settings under similar circumstances. BTCE did not.

[fible1]

BTC E Bot didn't buy, it definitely should have.
12:00   89.185   88.406   88.150   0.290% (This is over 0.25, and I should have gotten a buy order triggered, but instead I got an imminent notification)
11:00   88.987   88.233   88.047   0.211% (This is over zero, I should have gotten an imminent notification.)
10:00   88.544   88.066   87.953   0.128% (This is over zero, I should have gotten an imminent notification.)
9:00   88.601   87.959   87.894   0.075% (This is over zero, I should have gotten an imminent notification.)

My settings:
Buy Threshold 1: 0
Buy Threshold 2: 0.25

I should have gotten a "Buy is imminent" email at 9:00 since 0.075 is higher than 0.
I should have gotten a "Buy order has been triggered" email at 12:00 since 0.29% is higher than 0.25%

Instead, I got the following:
EMA diff is at 0.29% (1 BTC = 89.185 USD) at btce.
A buy order is imminent!

In this exact same situation this morning with Mt Gox the bot initiated a buy imminent and buy trigger at the correct times using the exact same settings under similar circumstances. BTCE did not.

Dresden,
  I need more information to track this down, I am sending you a PM right now.

Pablo.