(Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed)

[seanrarey]

I am on day two, and I dont really understand the logistics of it, but I will give it a few more days (will be applying for another trial key).

So far, it seems to have sold low and bought high. I am really not sure , but from what i can tell it takes the differences in percentage of the price of atleast two ticks, before it does a buy or sell... But from what I can tell, i dont understand why it does a sell even when the percentage difference is in the negative.. Shouldn't it only initiate an order when the percentages are positive?

But then again i dont really know what the hell is going on, so i will let it hang out for a bit while it does its thing..

I deposited about 5 BTC, and its hanging around 4.8 now from the past 2 days... so we will see

Danny

From the posts today, it is obvious that people are not doing the recommended reading/studying.  This is not a criticism per se, as learning the EMA system from scratch takes time; and you don't _have_ to learn why EMA works to let the bot do your trading.

First, I have no affiliation with ButerBot nor am I authorized to speak for them.  Take this from a user and experienced trader.

1. _Do not_ use the demo as a way to make a short term gain.  _You will lose money_.  Use the demo to see the bot and study how it works.  Most importantly, use the Test Your Settings feature to see what you would have made in the last few months _if_ you had been using the bot, unmolested, the whole time.

There... you are done!  Your next move should be to either buy the bot or not.  Putting money into it short time has about a 70% chance of losing, so don't do it.

2.  Don't believe the "Test Your Settings" numbers are accurate?  Do the math yourself, EMA is one of the oldest trading systems around.  This is just a very good automated way of implementing it.

I knew what I was getting into because I am familiar with the principles of EMA.  EMA _will_ make money in a trending market (like BTC), but it is extremely difficult to stick to the system manually (your brain gets in the way, with what you _think_ you see).  A bot eliminates the human factor and lets EMA shine.  I installed the bot, and lost money the first week.  I was not worried, I know how EMA works.  The 2nd week I got it all back, plus paid for the bot plus more.

Nobody can predict markets, despite what some claim.  This tool lets you actually see what you would have made over the past months using the system... _exactly_ what you would have made.  If that is not enough to send you searching for the Buy Now button, I'm not sure what will. 

[jimmut]

You know a feature I think might be nice since all the exchanges work in tandem basically. Yesterday my BTC-e went to a buy signal but Bitstamp never did. And then BTC-E went back to sell today..So basically it was a loser trade. I would like a feature that my bot doesn't make a buy or sell without the other exchanges I'm trading on having the same signal. Does that make sense or do you think it could be helpful or not?

[seanrarey]

You know a feature I think might be nice since all the exchanges work in tandem basically. Yesterday my BTC-e went to a buy signal but Bitstamp never did. And then BTC-E went back to sell today..So basically it was a loser trade. I would like a feature that my bot doesn't make a buy or sell without the other exchanges I'm trading on having the same signal. Does that make sense or do you think it could be helpful or not?

I certainly know where you are going with that, but unfortunately it is not that simple.  While the exchanges normally take cues from GOX (for now), exactly when and to what extent is dynamic.  Go back in the chart data and see how that would have worked out for you, and I think you will find a lot of loss.

A better solution is to be able to test/tune for each exchange, not have to blindly use settings tuned for GOX on all three.

[seanrarey]

You know a feature I think might be nice since all the exchanges work in tandem basically. Yesterday my BTC-e went to a buy signal but Bitstamp never did. And then BTC-E went back to sell today..So basically it was a loser trade. I would like a feature that my bot doesn't make a buy or sell without the other exchanges I'm trading on having the same signal. Does that make sense or do you think it could be helpful or not?

I did a lot of math today on what it would have taken to not take that BTC-e loss.  In the end, I concluded that it was simply a false trend signal from unique activity on that exchange (possibly due to alt activity).  There are going to be false trend signals with EMA...  yep, statistics show 70% of the time.

People a lot smarter then I have tried to come up with "solutions" to help mitigate these, but I have never seen one that appreciably reduces the EMA error rate.

This ain't magic, it is just a mathematical formula that statistically will keep you ahead of the curve in the long run.

Dreary market last couple of days for sure.

[balanghai]

can this run on cryptsy?

[Mooshire]

I have 2.08 BTC. If I bought the three month plan and put the rest of my money into bitstamp, could I turn a profit?

[rb2k]

I have 2.08 BTC. If I bought the three month plan and put the rest of my money into bitstamp, could I turn a profit?

You have $243 in BTC at the current rate
The 3 month plan is $89.96

So you're asking if you could get a 36% profit in 3 months.

I would have to say no.
Also: if you have no expectation of the return on an investment, you shouldn't invest.

[Gentle_bend]

Hi Pablo,
Just wanted to say that I managed to install BBot (the newest version) using 'Developer mode' ('Load unpacked extension'). Works ok, although backtesting takes quite a time (how long does the 1week option takes you guys? I started it 10min ago and it still 'Please wait...' me).
After installing I spotted that the default buy and sell thresholds should be changed, as they're set to buy1:0, buy2:0, sell1:0.25, sell2:0.25. I'm sure that everyone review these setting before starting fun wit your bot though

A small question as well, would it be possible to see other fiat currencies (like EUR) in BTC-E? Or are there any API restrictions?

Concerning arbitrage, as mentioned before it only makes sense with altcoins but would be a very interesting addition. Did you plan to move mentioned inclusion of the other trading strategies to the next main version?

Bendit

[jimmut]

Hi Pablo,
Just wanted to say that I managed to install BBot (the newest version) using 'Developer mode' ('Load unpacked extension'). Works ok, although backtesting takes quite a time (how long does the 1week option takes you guys? I started it 10min ago and it still 'Please wait...' me).
After installing I spotted that the default buy and sell thresholds should be changed, as they're set to buy1:0, buy2:0, sell1:0.25, sell2:0.25. I'm sure that everyone review these setting before starting fun wit your bot though

I just caught that on mine the other day when Pablo took a screen shot of the recommended settings. Before I did that mine was set as you described and I thought it was correct. But I had only ran it for a few days with that setting. Oh about the please wait, I maybe noticed that glitch too, that if it just keps saying says please wait more than a few seconds I just hit it again and it works or I change a setting and hit it.

[jimmut]

You know a feature I think might be nice since all the exchanges work in tandem basically. Yesterday my BTC-e went to a buy signal but Bitstamp never did. And then BTC-E went back to sell today..So basically it was a loser trade. I would like a feature that my bot doesn't make a buy or sell without the other exchanges I'm trading on having the same signal. Does that make sense or do you think it could be helpful or not?

I did a lot of math today on what it would have taken to not take that BTC-e loss.  In the end, I concluded that it was simply a false trend signal from unique activity on that exchange (possibly due to alt activity).  There are going to be false trend signals with EMA...  yep, statistics show 70% of the time.

People a lot smarter then I have tried to come up with "solutions" to help mitigate these, but I have never seen one that appreciably reduces the EMA error rate.

This ain't magic, it is just a mathematical formula that statistically will keep you ahead of the curve in the long run.

Dreary market last couple of days for sure.

That's what I was wondering if this was a unique occurrence or something that happened more often. And what you described makes sense and I guess it really won't come up to often. Like you said the market has been basically sideways with little movement. Is their a way a bot can tell the market isn't really moving fast in one direction or another and that maybe it should hold off on a buy or sell as it isn't really a trend? Or that it should do a smaller % of your funds till its sure of the trend and then do the rest. All most like an less aggressive setting? Like you said their have been smart people who explored these scenarios so I doubt it but still would like some ways to minimize the losses and maximize the profits.

[rb2k]

On your website, you seem to have grabbed weird stock images from somewhere: https://www.monosnap.com/image/zKZFILlPRGc3thI3UkdUrYYSL
That guy is Dries (http://buytaert.net/), the creator of the Drupal CMS. He doesn't do Bitcoin trading.
I'd remove those images, they look kinda scammy.

[fible1]

On your website, you seem to have grabbed weird stock images from somewhere: https://www.monosnap.com/image/zKZFILlPRGc3thI3UkdUrYYSL
That guy is Dries (http://buytaert.net/), the creator of the Drupal CMS. He doesn't do Bitcoin trading.
I'd remove those images, they look kinda scammy.

Hi RB2K ,
   We got the images from our website designer, we will be looking into this today.

Thank you for bringing it up .

Pablo.

[fible1]

Hi Pablo,
Just wanted to say that I managed to install BBot (the newest version) using 'Developer mode' ('Load unpacked extension'). Works ok, although backtesting takes quite a time (how long does the 1week option takes you guys? I started it 10min ago and it still 'Please wait...' me).
After installing I spotted that the default buy and sell thresholds should be changed, as they're set to buy1:0, buy2:0, sell1:0.25, sell2:0.25. I'm sure that everyone review these setting before starting fun wit your bot though

I just caught that on mine the other day when Pablo took a screen shot of the recommended settings. Before I did that mine was set as you described and I thought it was correct. But I had only ran it for a few days with that setting. Oh about the please wait, I maybe noticed that glitch too, that if it just keps saying says please wait more than a few seconds I just hit it again and it works or I change a setting and hit it.

Hi ,
  The recommended settings are:

Buy 1: 0
Buy 2: 0.25

Sell 1: 0
Sell 2: 0.25

2 Hours
 
Please let me know if you have any questions .

Pablo.

[fible1]

can this run on cryptsy?

Hi Balanghai,
     Not at this time, we are looking into this .

Pablo.

[seanrarey]

I have 2.08 BTC. If I bought the three month plan and put the rest of my money into bitstamp, could I turn a profit?

Yes.  Maybe not full ROI in that time, but you should see returns on your investment.

[seanrarey]

You know a feature I think might be nice since all the exchanges work in tandem basically. Yesterday my BTC-e went to a buy signal but Bitstamp never did. And then BTC-E went back to sell today..So basically it was a loser trade. I would like a feature that my bot doesn't make a buy or sell without the other exchanges I'm trading on having the same signal. Does that make sense or do you think it could be helpful or not?

I did a lot of math today on what it would have taken to not take that BTC-e loss.  In the end, I concluded that it was simply a false trend signal from unique activity on that exchange (possibly due to alt activity).  There are going to be false trend signals with EMA...  yep, statistics show 70% of the time.

People a lot smarter then I have tried to come up with "solutions" to help mitigate these, but I have never seen one that appreciably reduces the EMA error rate.

This ain't magic, it is just a mathematical formula that statistically will keep you ahead of the curve in the long run.

Dreary market last couple of days for sure.

That's what I was wondering if this was a unique occurrence or something that happened more often. And what you described makes sense and I guess it really won't come up to often. Like you said the market has been basically sideways with little movement. Is their a way a bot can tell the market isn't really moving fast in one direction or another and that maybe it should hold off on a buy or sell as it isn't really a trend? Or that it should do a smaller % of your funds till its sure of the trend and then do the rest. All most like an less aggressive setting? Like you said their have been smart people who explored these scenarios so I doubt it but still would like some ways to minimize the losses and maximize the profits.

The recommended starter settings are pretty conservative.  With the .25 threshold & 2hr poll times, means at least 4hrs of confirmation of a trend before a trade... that is pretty cautious... but false and shallow trends will still occur.  It is just part of the game. 

[fible1]

***************
Back Testing
***************

Friends,
   We've tracked down the issue with back testing staying on the "please wait" stage. Basically this happens when there have been no trades in the selected time period. We will upgrade the UI in the next version to show this better but it should not interfere with your trading, simply choose a higher time frame to assure there have been trades and you will get proper results .

Please let me know if anyone needs anything .

Pablo.

[seanrarey]

***************
Back Testing
***************

Friends,
   We've tracked down the issue with back testing staying on the "please wait" stage. Basically this happens when there have been no trades in the selected time period. We will upgrade the UI in the next version to show this better but it should not interfere with your trading, simply choose a higher time frame to assure there have been trades and you will get proper results .

Please let me know if anyone needs anything .

Pablo.

Great find, thanks.  As a tip for users, any "trend testing" using any time period of less then 1 or 2 months is not really a trend, so this should be the minimum time period you are using anyway.

[brucegregory]

My error :
 Bitstamp: Error while buying BTC: __all__: You need $3.48 to open that order. You have only $2.6 available. Check your account balance for details.. Please contact use about that.

All of my order have been selling when btc is low and buying when it is high. I do not need a detailed example, but can someone tell me how this works?

[seanrarey]

My error :
 Bitstamp: Error while buying BTC: __all__: You need $3.48 to open that order. You have only $2.6 available. Check your account balance for details.. Please contact use about that.

All of my order have been selling when btc is low and buying when it is high. I do not need a detailed example, but can someone tell me how this works?

EMA is a system that works to keep you in when the validated trend reads up, and out when the validated trend reads down.  This assures you of never being "left behind" like other trading systems (RSI), and means that if/when there is a big valid swing (not a spike) you benefit from it.  If BTC went to $200 this week, it would make sure you were in.  If it went to $5 this week, it would make sure you were out.

EMA will make you good returns in a trending market.  But, it will "bleed" some in shallow trends.  The system buys as the trend is going up, but if the trend does not continue, it is forced to sell; often at a small loss.

The recommended settings will minimize hits on false trends, be sure you are using them.