(Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed)

[PuertoLibre]

We should reach 400 by 4pm, maybe 8pm.

[1714813345]

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[vesperwillow]

We should reach 400 by 4pm, maybe 8pm.

Yeah I'm holding on buying there just for this very reason.

I wonder if anyone has insight as to why things have levelled off/begun sliding down? I'm confident it'll shoot up again.

[PuertoLibre]

We should reach 400 by 4pm, maybe 8pm.

Yeah I'm holding on buying there just for this very reason.

I wonder if anyone has insight as to why things have levelled off/begun sliding down? I'm confident it'll shoot up again.

If you switch your charts to 1 week, it will show a near vertical climb when it reached 900, sharp climbs like that are a bad indication on sustainability. The stochastic indicators for that period also showed the market was way overextended in the positive. It was kind of obvious what was going to happen.

1 day indicators also show that the market should (for a short time) stabilize soon. Probably around 350 from eyeballing it.

[bigb159]

Hey Pablo,

I think it would be nice if the bot would provide a chart with EMA lines so we could visualize exactly what different tweaks in our engine settings are doing. It would help noobs like me understand the product.

+100  Can someone retrofit the backtest data output to produce something if Pablo can't get it into the Roadmap?

Don't know if this helps, but if you visit bitcoinwisdom.com and tinker with the settings it may get you by. Under the parameters nav link you'll find ema settings.

[bigb159]

This has been an interesting week so far. My greatest achievement I think was eliminating the BTC-e chatbox thanks to Adblock Element Hiding Helper. All the Harpies, beggars and snake-oil was making me nauseous.

I see that people have, like me, been demoing Butter Bot. On Monday night I shut the bot off. Trust me, this was not the week to profit on EMA trades, but rather quick but smart betting (and luck) with volatile trends.

[vesperwillow]

If you switch your charts to 1 week, it will show a near vertical climb when it reached 900, sharp climbs like that are a bad indication on sustainability. The stochastic indicators for that period also showed the market was way overextended in the positive. It was kind of obvious what was going to happen.

1 day indicators also show that the market should (for a short time) stabilize soon. Probably around 350 from eyeballing it.

Yeah, my bot sold when it was up high, not near 900 but close so I was happy. I then shut off BTCE trading for now. My MTGX settings are doing well still.

I was thinking it might be stable around 400. Hearing your guesstimate affirms that 2 minds are on similar thought, so that's good news.

[Casimir1904]

Ok i need to play a lot more with the settings i see already...
Currently only playing with a bit play money... with manual trading i would have buy @470 bot did nothing with default setting. (only 1 hours instead of 2 hours)

For now i would sell @550-560 as I think we see another down later today, missed that chance as i want to see what the bot will do :-)

Probably these days trading manual is general better with these heavy swings...

Often $100+ swings a day.

To bad I missed the $900 swing.

But to make things clear i'm more investor, my biggest BTC assets I'm holding.
Invested a bit in Mining and with a very small amount I do Trading with the goal to get more BTC.

I feel better with BTC then Fiat money :-)

The haasonline bot is only working on Windows as I see...
Maybe also some other suggestions for what Bots to use?

[itod]

Every bot that profits in US$ but have loses in BTC is plain dangerous for your finances IMHO. Can we please resolve this issue with some data? Can someone who trades with this bot post profits/loses per 1 BTC per month, form the begining of the month till the end?

For example:

July, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
August, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
September, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
October, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC

Thanks.

[madpoet]

Every bot that profits in US$ but have loses in BTC is plain dangerous for your finances IMHO. Can we please resolve this issue with some data? Can someone who trades with this bot post profits/loses per 1 BTC per month, form the begining of the month till the end?

For example:

July, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
August, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
September, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
October, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC

Thanks.

Not sure why that is your opinion... it depends entirely on your goal.  For me the goal isn't to accumulate BTC its to accumulate USD

In other news BTC-E triggered a trade this afternoon but its questionable if its going to make any money.

[itod]

Every bot that profits in US$ but have loses in BTC is plain dangerous for your finances IMHO. Can we please resolve this issue with some data? Can someone who trades with this bot post profits/loses per 1 BTC per month, form the begining of the month till the end?

For example:

July, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
August, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
September, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
October, started 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC

Thanks.

Not sure why that is your opinion... it depends entirely on your goal.  For me the goal isn't to accumulate BTC its to accumulate USD

In other news BTC-E triggered a trade this afternoon but its questionable if its going to make any money.

Let's leave opinions behind, let's gather four rows of data. Than we my interpret it and have opinions.

[madpoet]

But your goal is clearly to show you will have less BTC.  Could be true, but you could still have more USD.  So I'm not sure I understand.  The profit is very clearly displayed in USD.  The bot trades based on USD trade lines.  Its goal is not to make you more btc, its to make you more USD.  So whatever data you want to gather, its not going to change that.

[Casimir1904]

But your goal is clearly to show you will have less BTC.  Could be true, but you could still have more USD.  So I'm not sure I understand.  The profit is very clearly displayed in USD.  The bot trades based on USD trade lines.  Its goal is not to make you more btc, its to make you more USD.  So whatever data you want to gather, its not going to change that.

How could you make more usd when you loss btc?

Example your bots starts with 50 BTC now you made lets say 10k usd Profit but you have 25BTC Left..
You didn't make profit because the Bot is good trading but only because BTC got more worth...

In my opinion a Bot should make good sells and buys to get more BTC what = more USD then...
Selling 1 BTC for $500 and buying back 0.5 BTC for $1000 isnt Breakeven its $1000 loss...


When you let the Bot run a Test for past 2 years with $100 starting and default settings it says:
Profit:13309.75%
It starts with $100 and 0 BTC:
First Trade:
22.11.2011 02:00:00   buy   2.289    $99.40   -0.60%
Last Trade:
20.11.2013 08:00:00   sell   551.106    $13409.75   13309.75%

First Trade you have: 99.40 / 2.289 = 43.425076453 BTC
Last Trade you had: 24.4332433325 BTC

43.425076453 * 551.106 = $23931.82
So you lost $23931.82 - $13409.75 = $10522.07

I don't get it how the bot count this as profit?
It only makes "profit" because BTC price increased in general.

When I do manual Trading I try to sell at high points and buy at low points on that way I can either keep the same BTC amount and just make more fake money or I can increase my BTC volume with buying more BTC from the USD made with the Trades...

So lets assume the Bot runs some years and it started 2y ago, it started with 43BTC in 2y you have maybe still Profit because 12 BTC are more worth then 24BTC today but again you lost half of your money...

I really don't get it.

Anyway i'm testing the Bot with $200 to see what it does... it bought today for $603-$604 ( i would have buy @470 manual but ok ).

[bassclef]

If you don't understand this method of trading DON'T USE THE BOT. EMA trading is a long-term strategy.

In fact there are smart traders who know that noobs use this bot on default settings and trade against it. I'm sure they are grateful for your extra coins. Be careful.

I'll reiterate this to the new guys. If you ema trade in a volitaile market, you will probably lose money short term. Long term you might come out ahead, but probably not better than buy and hold.

[yrtrnc]

Got a test acc, not really working? What am I doing wrong??

[itod]

But your goal is clearly to show you will have less BTC.  Could be true, but you could still have more USD.  So I'm not sure I understand.  The profit is very clearly displayed in USD.  The bot trades based on USD trade lines.  Its goal is not to make you more btc, its to make you more USD.  So whatever data you want to gather, its not going to change that.

My goal is to gather the data. In every science you first gather the data, than you drive the conclusions based on them. You don't go to conclusions first, and adjust the data later. So, please anyone who actually traded with this both, can you look at your logs and give us these four missing numbers?

July, if started with 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
August, if started with 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
September, if started with 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC
October, if started with 1BTC -> ended <fill here>BTC

[agibby5]

This might be a really stupid question. Do you need to have Chrome running to have this Bot working?  I didn't know if the code is running locally or remotely somewhere...  I don't want to shutdown my computer if I need Chrome running.

[NginUS]

Hi Pablo,

I think it would be very useful to put a warning that says "WARNING: THE BOT WILL BUY AT THE CURRENT PRICE, WHATEVER THE MARKET CONDITION IS AS SOON AS YOU ENABLE TRADING. (I UNDERSTAND/STOP THE BOT)".

In the future you should add an additional per-market setting like "Initial buy price: XXX".
Then when you click on the "enable trading" link or button the BOT should show an alert that says: "Do you want to wait until a price of XXX has been reached before allowing the BOT to buy? (YES/NO/CHANGE THRESHOLD)"

Of course the BOT should use the threshold only when trading goes from disabled to enabled and not during its normal operation.

This could help with users that start to try the BOT in a day that shows a lot of fluctuation and avoid a situation where the BOT buys at 700 and sells 30 seconds later at 500.

Pablo,

Do you think this is the same bug I'm experiencing where the bot trades immediately upon being re-enabled every time? I still haven't re-enabled mine yet to catch it in the console log, but maybe will tomorrow so you have something to debug.

-NginUS

[bassclef]

This might be a really stupid question. Do you need to have Chrome running to have this Bot working?  I didn't know if the code is running locally or remotely somewhere...  I don't want to shutdown my computer if I need Chrome running.

Yes, Chrome needs to be running.

[Casimir1904]

I guess we need reversed chart reading to make more btc with ema trading ( what generates also more dollars )

not btc- usd but usd-btc...

so it will sell btc when usd get more in value ( decreasing btc price ) and buy when usd get lower ( increasing btc price ).

Then ema trading will work to generate more btc but also usd as you could always sell your "more" btc manual when you want usd...

So as for now usd is on a downtrend...
When btc drops usd is in uptrend...

[Mendelsohn]

But your goal is clearly to show you will have less BTC.  Could be true, but you could still have more USD.  So I'm not sure I understand.  The profit is very clearly displayed in USD.  The bot trades based on USD trade lines.  Its goal is not to make you more btc, its to make you more USD.  So whatever data you want to gather, its not going to change that.

How could you make more usd when you loss btc?

Example your bots starts with 50 BTC now you made lets say 10k usd Profit but you have 25BTC Left..
You didn't make profit because the Bot is good trading but only because BTC got more worth...

In my opinion a Bot should make good sells and buys to get more BTC what = more USD then...
Selling 1 BTC for $500 and buying back 0.5 BTC for $1000 isnt Breakeven its $1000 loss...


When you let the Bot run a Test for past 2 years with $100 starting and default settings it says:
Profit:13309.75%
It starts with $100 and 0 BTC:
First Trade:
22.11.2011 02:00:00   buy   2.289    $99.40   -0.60%
Last Trade:
20.11.2013 08:00:00   sell   551.106    $13409.75   13309.75%

First Trade you have: 99.40 / 2.289 = 43.425076453 BTC
Last Trade you had: 24.4332433325 BTC

43.425076453 * 551.106 = $23931.82
So you lost $23931.82 - $13409.75 = $10522.07

I don't get it how the bot count this as profit?
It only makes "profit" because BTC price increased in general.

When I do manual Trading I try to sell at high points and buy at low points on that way I can either keep the same BTC amount and just make more fake money or I can increase my BTC volume with buying more BTC from the USD made with the Trades...

So lets assume the Bot runs some years and it started 2y ago, it started with 43BTC in 2y you have maybe still Profit because 12 BTC are more worth then 24BTC today but again you lost half of your money...

I really don't get it.

Anyway i'm testing the Bot with $200 to see what it does... it bought today for $603-$604 ( i would have buy @470 manual but ok ).

Good point.

After many hours of backtesting I haven't found a single setting that comes even close to buy and hold.

Plus: If you don't trade with very low amounts you will always have higher costs than the mere trading fee because you affect the market. Between 1 and 2 % from my experience. With high amounts even more. In the long run these 1 to 2 or more % really add up.

Also: Depending on where you live you need to pay quite high taxes on the profits. In some places you don't have to if you hold for a longer period.

All this combined buy and hold seems much, much more attractive than EMA based trading.


So why use the bot?

It might be that it performs well if the markets move sideways or downwards. With the current backtesting tool I can't check this though because the endpoint is always the time I do the test. Therefore it would be good to be able to have freely selectable start and end dates in the backtesting tool.

It might also be that the bot works if one adjusts the settings depending on the market. High volatility settings for periods like the last couple of days and standard settings for the rest of the time. So far I haven't found good high volatility settings which performed well in periods like the last couple of days though. I someone has I would be really glad to here about that.