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[MICRO]

Using the power function to calculate the odds of getting rolling a win or loss with a specific series of rolls is highly flawed, because the potential series is infinite, and each roll restarts the series from scratch. Meaning, after 5000 rolls of losing, your odds of rolling a 9900x win in the NEXT 9900 rolls is exactly the same as it was when you started 5000 rolls ago. The fact that you've lost 5000 rolls has no bearing on the next 9900.  

Your formula assumes the odds are absolute which is simply not correct, whether it be on PrimeDice or in a physical casino.

To expand, statistical odds represented as a percentage must add up to 100%, while at the same time, will never reach the true round number of 100% --- Being 99.99999... and so on is as close as one could get. Unless of course you're flipping a double headed coin

Lets use your example to demonstrate...

On 9900x you've calculated/assumed the actual odds of not rolling a win rolling 9900 rolls is (99.99%)^9900 = 37.16%

The flaw here is if your odds of 'not' winning is 37.16% then mathematically speaking your odds of winning must be 62.84%.

Betting 0.00001000 per roll would result in a win of 0.09899000. Rolling 9900 times, a player would wager 0.09900000 - he would win 63 out of every 100 times he played this series. (62.84% Rounded).

So every 100 games the player would win 63 and lose 37...? Thats guaranteed profit.

You can use discrete probability to calculate odds for only a single roll... To calculate the odds of winning or losing in a series, continuous probability must be used and a number of statistical paradoxes must be considered.

 Strato

It looks to me that you are a bit confused about conditional probability. You are right that the probability won't change after getting 5000 loss, and indeed that is because each bet is independent to each other, and that is exactly the reason why ^ is used in calculating the unconditional probability.


Also, "you have 62.84% chance to make it" doesn't mean you will win 62.84% of the time for sure, especially when the sample size is small.
Take a simple event as example, you have 16.6667% chance to roll a '6' with a fair dice. Does that mean you will be guaranteed to get it once every 6 rolls? The answer is no, but the probability tells you how likely an event is going to occur.

Yeah, math there can get you some basic understanding where you sit with it. But it can be wayyyy off. Every roll is independent. On each new roll you have exact same chance to get win or lose as you had on previous one. Doesn't matter if you had 100 wins or loses in a row on 50% , your next roll still has the same 50% chance.

[Havelivi]

Using the power function to calculate the odds of getting rolling a win or loss with a specific series of rolls is highly flawed, because the potential series is infinite, and each roll restarts the series from scratch. Meaning, after 5000 rolls of losing, your odds of rolling a 9900x win in the NEXT 9900 rolls is exactly the same as it was when you started 5000 rolls ago. The fact that you've lost 5000 rolls has no bearing on the next 9900.  

Your formula assumes the odds are absolute which is simply not correct, whether it be on PrimeDice or in a physical casino.

To expand, statistical odds represented as a percentage must add up to 100%, while at the same time, will never reach the true round number of 100% --- Being 99.99999... and so on is as close as one could get. Unless of course you're flipping a double headed coin

Lets use your example to demonstrate...

On 9900x you've calculated/assumed the actual odds of not rolling a win rolling 9900 rolls is (99.99%)^9900 = 37.16%

The flaw here is if your odds of 'not' winning is 37.16% then mathematically speaking your odds of winning must be 62.84%.

Betting 0.00001000 per roll would result in a win of 0.09899000. Rolling 9900 times, a player would wager 0.09900000 - he would win 63 out of every 100 times he played this series. (62.84% Rounded).

So every 100 games the player would win 63 and lose 37...? Thats guaranteed profit.

You can use discrete probability to calculate odds for only a single roll... To calculate the odds of winning or losing in a series, continuous probability must be used and a number of statistical paradoxes must be considered.

 Strato

It looks to me that you are a bit confused about conditional probability. You are right that the probability won't change after getting 5000 loss, and indeed that is because each bet is independent to each other, and that is exactly the reason why ^ is used in calculating the unconditional probability.


Also, "you have 62.84% chance to make it" doesn't mean you will win 62.84% of the time for sure, especially when the sample size is small.
Take a simple event as example, you have 16.6667% chance to roll a '6' with a fair dice. Does that mean you will be guaranteed to get it once every 6 rolls? The answer is no, but the probability tells you how likely an event is going to occur.

Yeah, math there can get you some basic understanding where you sit with it. But it can be wayyyy off. Every roll is independent. On each new roll you have exact same chance to get win or lose as you had on previous one. Doesn't matter if you had 100 wins or loses in a row on 50% , your next roll still has the same 50% chance.

That is true basically depends more on our luck than any strategy even a single roll can change the day as i my experience many time i recovered my loss with high odds and sometimes i lost with 1.10x payout.

[singpays]

Hey guys cool  PD user:Sylos awesome Hit , He chasing reds 734red N finally got the green awesome hit guys smart player
If you need hit go play good n now won won BTC Good enjoy the big won Sylos

[FanEagle]

awesome, we need more winners like Sylos.

[Altcoin4life]

Hey guys cool  PD user:Sylos awesome Hit , He chasing reds 734red N finally got the green awesome hit guys smart player
If you need hit go play good n now won won BTC Good enjoy the big won Sylos

So he spent 44 btc to make 6. Am I missing something? If I did the same thing on another site at least I'd have some rake comin on Sunday yall are insane.

[Alvin Fahriza]

Hey guys cool  PD user:Sylos awesome Hit , He chasing reds 734red N finally got the green awesome hit guys smart player
If you need hit go play good n now won won BTC Good enjoy the big won Sylos

So he spent 44 btc to make 6. Am I missing something? If I did the same thing on another site at least I'd have some rake comin on Sunday yall are insane.

of course not all bets 734 bet bb is 0.064 btc
he start from a little bb and increase like 2x when feel to hit it.

[Altcoin4life]

Hey guys cool  PD user:Sylos awesome Hit , He chasing reds 734red N finally got the green awesome hit guys smart player
If you need hit go play good n now won won BTC Good enjoy the big won Sylos

So he spent 44 btc to make 6. Am I missing something? If I did the same thing on another site at least I'd have some rake comin on Sunday yall are insane.

of course not all bets 734 bet bb is 0.064 btc
he start from a little bb and increase like 2x when feel to hit it.

Oic so he just figured it was his time to hit the 99x and bet larger that's nice

[Alvin Fahriza]

Hey guys cool  PD user:Sylos awesome Hit , He chasing reds 734red N finally got the green awesome hit guys smart player
If you need hit go play good n now won won BTC Good enjoy the big won Sylos

So he spent 44 btc to make 6. Am I missing something? If I did the same thing on another site at least I'd have some rake comin on Sunday yall are insane.

of course not all bets 734 bet bb is 0.064 btc
he start from a little bb and increase like 2x when feel to hit it.

Oic so he just figured it was his time to hit the 99x and bet larger that's nice

hmm no i see he bet 0.012 then double it to 0.032
and double it to 0.064 and hit the 99x

[adaseb]

Hey guys cool  PD user:Sylos awesome Hit , He chasing reds 734red N finally got the green awesome hit guys smart player
If you need hit go play good n now won won BTC Good enjoy the big won Sylos

So he spent 44 btc to make 6. Am I missing something? If I did the same thing on another site at least I'd have some rake comin on Sunday yall are insane.

of course not all bets 734 bet bb is 0.064 btc
he start from a little bb and increase like 2x when feel to hit it.

Oic so he just figured it was his time to hit the 99x and bet larger that's nice

hmm no i see he bet 0.012 then double it to 0.032
and double it to 0.064 and hit the 99x

I don't understand that stragegy either, betting 0.064 and then doubling with only 1% of winning is very risky unless he has like 1000 BTC.

[Alvin Fahriza]

Hey guys cool  PD user:Sylos awesome Hit , He chasing reds 734red N finally got the green awesome hit guys smart player
If you need hit go play good n now won won BTC Good enjoy the big won Sylos

So he spent 44 btc to make 6. Am I missing something? If I did the same thing on another site at least I'd have some rake comin on Sunday yall are insane.

of course not all bets 734 bet bb is 0.064 btc
he start from a little bb and increase like 2x when feel to hit it.

Oic so he just figured it was his time to hit the 99x and bet larger that's nice

hmm no i see he bet 0.012 then double it to 0.032
and double it to 0.064 and hit the 99x

I don't understand that stragegy either, betting 0.064 and then doubling with only 1% of winning is very risky unless he has like 1000 BTC.

he know what he does and make profit from that
but he just got 2btc profit may be from this bet before he had 3btc profit and now 5btc profit.

[Quickseller]

Hey guys cool  PD user:Sylos awesome Hit , He chasing reds 734red N finally got the green awesome hit guys smart player
If you need hit go play good n now won won BTC Good enjoy the big won Sylos

So he spent 44 btc to make 6. Am I missing something? If I did the same thing on another site at least I'd have some rake comin on Sunday yall are insane.

of course not all bets 734 bet bb is 0.064 btc
he start from a little bb and increase like 2x when feel to hit it.

Oic so he just figured it was his time to hit the 99x and bet larger that's nice

hmm no i see he bet 0.012 then double it to 0.032
and double it to 0.064 and hit the 99x

I don't understand that stragegy either, betting 0.064 and then doubling with only 1% of winning is very risky unless he has like 1000 BTC.

If he was doubling his bet after each loss on a 99x bet then he would very quickly hit the max payout ceiling. Even if his starting bet was 0.00000001 then his bet would exceed the 20 btc payout after 24 bets and he would be expected to win once every 100 bets.

[Alvin Fahriza]

Hey guys cool  PD user:Sylos awesome Hit , He chasing reds 734red N finally got the green awesome hit guys smart player
If you need hit go play good n now won won BTC Good enjoy the big won Sylos

So he spent 44 btc to make 6. Am I missing something? If I did the same thing on another site at least I'd have some rake comin on Sunday yall are insane.

of course not all bets 734 bet bb is 0.064 btc
he start from a little bb and increase like 2x when feel to hit it.

Oic so he just figured it was his time to hit the 99x and bet larger that's nice

hmm no i see he bet 0.012 then double it to 0.032
and double it to 0.064 and hit the 99x

I don't understand that stragegy either, betting 0.064 and then doubling with only 1% of winning is very risky unless he has like 1000 BTC.

If he was doubling his bet after each loss on a 99x bet then he would very quickly hit the max payout ceiling. Even if his starting bet was 0.00000001 then his bet would exceed the 20 btc payout after 24 bets and he would be expected to win once every 100 bets.

no like that i mean is when he lose 0.016 btc in 100bets all red then he double it "not each loss"
or like go for 0.032 btc if lose again in 100bets his doubled again
and not from 0.016 btc first bet,it's just example

[birdcat90]

wow that amazing profit,,but for 99x i have 870 red streak..

thats my longest streak on 99x,,i used to bet like him,, but not satisfied with my strategy so i changed it

[mattiadeabtc]

0.06 bet on 99x is something insane for my pocket
good win btw, congratulation

[98problems]

0.06 bet on 99x is something insane for my pocket
good win btw, congratulation

maybe he wasnt playing for a lot maybe he just did a few bets like a lottery to try his luck out and possibly win

[ndnh]

Hey guys cool  PD user:Sylos awesome Hit , He chasing reds 734red N finally got the green awesome hit guys smart player
If you need hit go play good n now won won BTC Good enjoy the big won Sylos

So he spent 44 btc to make 6. Am I missing something? If I did the same thing on another site at least I'd have some rake comin on Sunday yall are insane.

of course not all bets 734 bet bb is 0.064 btc
he start from a little bb and increase like 2x when feel to hit it.

Oic so he just figured it was his time to hit the 99x and bet larger that's nice

hmm no i see he bet 0.012 then double it to 0.032
and double it to 0.064 and hit the 99x

I don't understand that stragegy either, betting 0.064 and then doubling with only 1% of winning is very risky unless he has like 1000 BTC.

If he was doubling his bet after each loss on a 99x bet then he would very quickly hit the max payout ceiling. Even if his starting bet was 0.00000001 then his bet would exceed the 20 btc payout after 24 bets and he would be expected to win once every 100 bets.

no like that i mean is when he lose 0.016 btc in 100bets all red then he double it "not each loss"
or like go for 0.032 btc if lose again in 100bets his doubled again
and not from 0.016 btc first bet,it's just example

Yes, that is what many will do. Double the bet after a good losing streak.

[zz11]

0.06 bet on 99x is something insane for my pocket
good win btw, congratulation

Mr.Whale don't have problems with that kind of a base bet

[vendetahome]

0.06 bet on 99x is something insane for my pocket
good win btw, congratulation

Mr.Whale don't have problems with that kind of a base bet

any webpages where can i find his statistics about the game and how much he gambled? i would be keen on checking it

[ndnh]

0.06 bet on 99x is something insane for my pocket
good win btw, congratulation

Mr.Whale don't have problems with that kind of a base bet

any webpages where can i find his statistics about the game and how much he gambled? i would be keen on checking it

http://pd3.co/

https://pd3.co/users/Sylos

Sylos
(816443)
Registered a day ago.

Wagered:
196.55709475 BTC
Profit:
7.08865549 BTC
Total Bets:
7254
Wins:
2093
Losses:
5161
Luck:
100.47%
Chat Messages:
1075

[apriyani420]

0.06 bet on 99x is something insane for my pocket
good win btw, congratulation

Mr.Whale don't have problems with that kind of a base bet

any webpages where can i find his statistics about the game and how much he gambled? i would be keen on checking it

http://pd3.co/

https://pd3.co/users/Sylos

Sylos
(816443)
Registered a day ago.

Wagered:
196.55709475 BTC
Profit:
7.08865549 BTC
Total Bets:
7254
Wins:
2093
Losses:
5161
Luck:
100.47%
Chat Messages:
1075

thats impressive, im not talking about the btc part but about messages, how ca someone post 1075 messages in a day?