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Mastergerund
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June 16, 2013, 07:52:42 PM |
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Aside from temporary distortions caused by excessive hash rate increases over short periods of time, the number of blocks solved (and therefore btc mined) remains constant over time, this is precisely the function that increasing difficulty performs.
That's correct, and difficulty increases to normalize the number of blocks solved. But continuously rising difficulty happens because the blocks are found in shorter periods of time. My point is more about the assumptions people make, versus the calculations they make. You can't assume rising difficulty and constant revenue at the same time. If you assume difficulty changes, you have to update your revenue projections accordingly, because rising difficulty happens because blocks are being found too quickly. (More blocks than projected over each period.) |
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Rival
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June 16, 2013, 07:59:24 PM |
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You are correct, you cannot expect both rising difficulty and steady returns to coexist except in the special case where your personal hash rate increases to ensure a steady percentage of global hash. This I believe is the special case we see in AM, as their stated goal is to maintain a steady percentage of the global hash. If I misunderstand the intention of AM then I stand corrected.
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shawshankinmate37927
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June 16, 2013, 08:11:34 PM |
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25 coins x 6 blocks/hr x 24 hours x 365 days = 1,314,000 total btc mined in the entire universe per year. This on average will remain stable until the next halving. If AM maintains 20% of the total hash, they will receive 262,800 coins per year from mining. With 400,000 shares outstanding that breaks down to 0.707 coins per year per share before expenses.
262,800 / 400,000 = .657 |
"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." - Henry Ford
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circuitry
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Activity: 61
Merit: 10
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June 16, 2013, 08:36:27 PM |
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$1000 a Bitcoin is not a lot and if the software ceiling issue weren't there I would say it could reach $1000 this year.
Speculation noob here. It seems to me that one of the short term collateral aspects of the ASIC war that's ramping up will be an exceedingly large supply of bitcoins in a low demand market. There are very little people actually using bitcoin, the exchange activity is mostly bots and whales, and acquiring bitcoin is a difficult task for your average internet user. On the other hand, there are LOTS of miners selling their bitcoins for fiat. I'm bullish on Bitcoin long-term, but in the current context, $1000 a Bitcoin is impossible. We're struggling to keep three digits, and nothing in the horizon suggests any kind of reversal (more likely the opposite). Please enlighten me if I'm missing something. |
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Luckybit
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June 16, 2013, 11:04:14 PM |
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$1000 a Bitcoin is not a lot and if the software ceiling issue weren't there I would say it could reach $1000 this year.
Speculation noob here. It seems to me that one of the short term collateral aspects of the ASIC war that's ramping up will be an exceedingly large supply of bitcoins in a low demand market. There are very little people actually using bitcoin, the exchange activity is mostly bots and whales, and acquiring bitcoin is a difficult task for your average internet user. On the other hand, there are LOTS of miners selling their bitcoins for fiat. I'm bullish on Bitcoin long-term, but in the current context, $1000 a Bitcoin is impossible. We're struggling to keep three digits, and nothing in the horizon suggests any kind of reversal (more likely the opposite). Please enlighten me if I'm missing something. Yeah, hackers, bots, DDOS, market manipulators, and the fact that Bitcoin isn't designed to go over $500 are all reasons why it can't reach $1000 right now, but when those problems are solved then it can. Demand is clearly there as you can see by the media attention and businesses adopting it. |
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velacreations (OP)
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June 16, 2013, 11:58:29 PM |
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share price continues to slide today, the demand has disappeared.
was that rise to 3 an artificial pump?
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zoinky
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June 17, 2013, 12:00:15 AM |
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share price continues to slide today, the demand has disappeared.
was that rise to 3 an artificial pump?
I'd say the volume has been pretty high the last few days, things are settling down for a bit. A lot of shares have changed hands. |
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mc_lovin
Legendary
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Activity: 1190
Merit: 1000
www.bitcointrading.com
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June 17, 2013, 12:16:24 AM |
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$1000 a Bitcoin is not a lot and if the software ceiling issue weren't there I would say it could reach $1000 this year.
Speculation noob here. It seems to me that one of the short term collateral aspects of the ASIC war that's ramping up will be an exceedingly large supply of bitcoins in a low demand market. There are very little people actually using bitcoin, the exchange activity is mostly bots and whales, and acquiring bitcoin is a difficult task for your average internet user. On the other hand, there are LOTS of miners selling their bitcoins for fiat. I'm bullish on Bitcoin long-term, but in the current context, $1000 a Bitcoin is impossible. We're struggling to keep three digits, and nothing in the horizon suggests any kind of reversal (more likely the opposite). Please enlighten me if I'm missing something. Yeah, hackers, bots, DDOS, market manipulators, and the fact that Bitcoin isn't designed to go over $500 are all reasons why it can't reach $1000 right now, but when those problems are solved then it can. Demand is clearly there as you can see by the media attention and businesses adopting it. Bitcoin not designed to go over $500..? |
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ThickAsThieves
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June 17, 2013, 12:30:00 AM |
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share price continues to slide today, the demand has disappeared.
was that rise to 3 an artificial pump?
People only have so much money to spend. Wait'll Tuesday to see what the price does again. And then watch the price react to whatever the divs are. If divs are .03+ again, expect to see 3btc price again. If divs are less then .025 expect to see us fall back to 2.5ish again. Personally, I think the stock is easily worth 3btc, but the market is what it is! |
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ianp
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June 17, 2013, 01:00:26 AM |
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Since this thread is for speculation -- what does everyone think is going on with the hashrate? ~23 th/s for the past 8 hours..
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Palantir13
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Activity: 38
Merit: 0
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June 17, 2013, 01:09:14 AM |
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Since this thread is for speculation -- what does everyone think is going on with the hashrate? ~23 th/s for the past 8 hours..
BitMinter was DDoSed earlier. Other pools might have been hit as well, but I haven't heard anything of the sort. |
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ianp
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June 17, 2013, 01:19:17 AM |
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Since this thread is for speculation -- what does everyone think is going on with the hashrate? ~23 th/s for the past 8 hours..
BitMinter was DDoSed earlier. Other pools might have been hit as well, but I haven't heard anything of the sort. Interesting. Thanks for the info, I hadn't heard that. |
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velacreations (OP)
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June 17, 2013, 01:54:39 AM |
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share price continues to slide today, the demand has disappeared.
was that rise to 3 an artificial pump?
People only have so much money to spend. Wait'll Tuesday to see what the price does again. And then watch the price react to whatever the divs are. If divs are .03+ again, expect to see 3btc price again. If divs are less then .025 expect to see us fall back to 2.5ish again. Personally, I think the stock is easily worth 3btc, but the market is what it is! i don't see how the dividend can be much above .025, and I expect a sell off, but maybe not that much. |
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freedomno1
Legendary
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Activity: 1820
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
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June 17, 2013, 02:29:04 AM |
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Well we know the blades are completely out of stock Add the last part of those to dividends for this week plus mining Expect a lower dividend range for a few weeks end of June early July Then see some better units back in there and demand rise with the higher dividends Watch how people determine yield value into stock price over the current week or two (Little bit of panic here and there from the lowly informed investors omg the Yields only 0.25 RUN!) And then cruise back upward again when it goes back to 0.3 + lol That said I think 2.5 Is a Key Support we probably will not fall below that any time soon (Except during currency collapses or parabolic bubbles of course  ) Which with bitcoin can happen guess I would say pile up if your even slightly long term here Beyond next week or two he-he Assume avalon's Klondike and AMC will ship at higher capacity and complete project August/September for mid term possibly earlier but still to early to call on Klondikes (Inital Release 1.0) Assume BFL will give more chip rebates that cannot be claimed until Christmas lol (January so they can do holiday specials XD) (And heck at this rate will beat anything currently on the market or theoretically should be on the market from BFL &_&) I'll believe it when it really starts moving watches lol |
Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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LorenzoMoney
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June 17, 2013, 02:40:39 AM |
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Circuitry has a very good point. Most people are hoarding and holding there bitcoins. They are holding them in expectation that the price will go up. There really is no Bitcoin economy. Most of the investment instruments, stocks on sites like Bitfunder, are investments in mining or investments in companies that loan money. (Bitpride is the exception, they sell t-shorts with bitcoin logos.) Until you can use bitcoin to buy non-technological goods, and items other than alpaca sox, like jewelry, chocolate, food stuff, clothing, things that you need for daily life, then Bitcoin will have a little incestuous economy of being generated by bitcoiners to be sold on markets where speculators buy them and hold them or try to flip them, but where most bitcoin are held and not used. If you want to make bitcoin viable, then convince your fiat bank to also have a hosted bitcoin wallet, convince your pizza place on the corner to accept bitcoin, convince the local frozen yogurt store to accept bitcoin. $1000 a Bitcoin is not a lot and if the software ceiling issue weren't there I would say it could reach $1000 this year.
Speculation noob here. It seems to me that one of the short term collateral aspects of the ASIC war that's ramping up will be an exceedingly large supply of bitcoins in a low demand market. There are very little people actually using bitcoin, the exchange activity is mostly bots and whales, and acquiring bitcoin is a difficult task for your average internet user. On the other hand, there are LOTS of miners selling their bitcoins for fiat. I'm bullish on Bitcoin long-term, but in the current context, $1000 a Bitcoin is impossible. We're struggling to keep three digits, and nothing in the horizon suggests any kind of reversal (more likely the opposite). Please enlighten me if I'm missing something. |
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velacreations (OP)
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June 17, 2013, 02:41:27 AM |
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Well we know the blades are completely out of stock Add the last part of those to dividends for this week plus mining Expect a lower dividend range for a few weeks end of June early July Then see some better units back in there and demand rise with the higher dividends Watch how people determine yield value into stock price over the current week or two (Little bit of panic here and there from the lowly informed investors omg the Yields only 0.25 RUN!) And then cruise back upward again when it goes back to 0.3 + lol That said I think 2.5 Is a Key Support we probably will not fall below that any time soon (Except during currency collapses or parabolic bubbles of course ) Which with bitcoin can happen guess I would say pile up if your even slightly long term here Beyond next week or two he-he Assume avalon's Klondike and AMC will ship at higher capacity and complete project August/September for mid term possibly earlier but still to early to call on Klondikes (Inital Release 1.0) Assume BFL will give more chip rebates that cannot be claimed until Christmas lol (January so they can do holiday specials XD) (And heck at this rate will beat anything currently on the market or theoretically should be on the market from BFL &_&) I'll believe it when it really starts moving watches lol that seems to be the consensus, lower dividend = newbie freakout = low share prices for early adopters to gain more the buy orders are sooooo thin above 2.7 right now. There is just no demand at the moment for the current prices (~2.85) |
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ThickAsThieves
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June 17, 2013, 02:43:30 AM |
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Until you can use bitcoin to buy non-technological goods, and items other than alpaca sox, like jewelry, chocolate, food stuff, clothing, things that you need for daily life, then Bitcoin will have a little incestuous economy of being generated by bitcoiners to be sold on markets where speculators buy them and hold them or try to flip them, but where most bitcoin are held and not used.
www.gyft.com |
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freedomno1
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Learning the troll avoidance button :)
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June 17, 2013, 02:51:07 AM
Last edit: June 17, 2013, 03:01:29 AM by freedomno1 |
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that seems to be the consensus, lower dividend = newbie freakout = low share prices for early adopters to gain more
It's the vicious cycle of newbie's Could factor in that new investors to bitcoin start by not knowing the data unless they do a lot of pre-research  On the bright side new members means if they survive all the scam threads there will be more people buying and selling == Greater profit opportunity's on psychological investing (Panic selling) (Just got to be careful not to fall for your own traps) That said if you bought in at 2.5 Its decreasingly less expensive each dividend on those shares (Well factoring in bitcoin exchange rates) 2.46371689 2.42557002 Even if it dropped the real cost is shrinking faster so the vets will probably still go meh Or I guess legal double dipping nice div's and good growth  |
Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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freedomno1
Legendary
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Activity: 1820
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
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June 17, 2013, 02:54:12 AM
Last edit: June 17, 2013, 03:11:14 AM by freedomno1 |
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Until you can use bitcoin to buy non-technological goods, and items other than alpaca sox, like jewelry, chocolate, food stuff, clothing, things that you need for daily life, then Bitcoin will have a little incestuous economy of being generated by bitcoiners to be sold on markets where speculators buy them and hold them or try to flip them, but where most bitcoin are held and not used.
www.gyft.comTook the good one TAT https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/TradeWell goes with this they need to add havelock, and bitfunder Actually that seems challenging fills in the list Jewelry http://www.bitpremier.com/http://www.allthingsluxury.biz/ (Heck I even see litecoins) Chocolate or vote for more gift cards http://giftsforcoins.com/store/http://jeffreybitcoin.moonfruit.com/Food Stuff http://www.survivalfood.com/Bitcoin/ (Made for the bitcoin apocalypse) https://www.foodler.com/user/Bitcoin.doClothing http://www.patcht.com/ (CUSTOM) http://www.bitfash.com/Private Life Art http://www.teresapiacentino.com/index_en.htmlPortable Ninja Device he-he https://www.ninjaboot.com/But I guess we are just incestuous |
Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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Franktank
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June 17, 2013, 03:10:12 AM |
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Circuitry has a very good point.
Most people are hoarding and holding there bitcoins.
They are holding them in expectation that the price will go up.
There really is no Bitcoin economy. Most of the investment instruments, stocks on sites like Bitfunder, are investments in mining or investments in companies that loan money. (Bitpride is the exception, they sell t-shorts with bitcoin logos.)
Until you can use bitcoin to buy non-technological goods, and items other than alpaca sox, like jewelry, chocolate, food stuff, clothing, things that you need for daily life, then Bitcoin will have a little incestuous economy of being generated by bitcoiners to be sold on markets where speculators buy them and hold them or try to flip them, but where most bitcoin are held and not used.
If you want to make bitcoin viable, then convince your fiat bank to also have a hosted bitcoin wallet, convince your pizza place on the corner to accept bitcoin, convince the local frozen yogurt store to accept bitcoin.
Bitspend.net and Bitsumo.comBoth offer ways to buy what you want/need online for a reasonable fee. No need to deal with currency exchange sites. |
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