ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[velacreations]

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

that's hilarious!  

You have no proof of that, only hope.  They are currently shipping orders made a year ago, while AM is shipping units in a few days.  august at the latest?  ha!

When comparing something to nothing, nothing is certainly cheaper.

[velacreations]

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

I think you are the one that needs to learn math. 

Profit from placing an order a year ago with BFL: BTC0
Profit from purchasing AM share at IPO: 3.4+.32 = BTC3.72 (ignores huge increase in BTC value)

0 < 3.72

[Mabsark]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

Your calculations don't take into account that AM will be implementing increasing hashpower and, hopefully, be mining and generating TX fees for quite a long time. This will likely make the shares still worth something after the ~2 years that it takes to ROI. However, your BFL Jala will be worth nothing after two years.

AM increasing hashing power will not automatically increase their dividends. Their hash rate has to increase at a rate greater than that of the network hash rate in order to that. AM have also stated that they don't want to control more than a specific amount of the network share.

And it doesn't matter if you can resell the shares. By the time you've recouped your costs with AM, if you bought a BFL miner, you'd be able to buy a newer, cheaper, more powerful and more efficient one with the profits. The BFL alone would likely recoup the cost of the new miner before you recouped the cost of an AM share.

So, who's in the better position? You still waiting to recoup the cost of an AM share, or me having recouped my costs and having a BFL and brand spanking new miner generating pure profit?

[binaryFate]

It's always the same discussion over and over. Do you guys realize that nobody is right or wrong? Luckily there are different assets, hardware, etc, to make everybody happy with their specific risk to take, amount to invest, and time window to look at.

[Eric Muyser]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

Your calculations don't take into account that AM will be implementing increasing hashpower and, hopefully, be mining and generating TX fees for quite a long time. This will likely make the shares still worth something after the ~2 years that it takes to ROI. However, your BFL Jala will be worth nothing after two years.

AM increasing hashing power will not automatically increase their dividends. Their hash rate has to increase at a rate greater than that of the network hash rate in order to that. AM have also stated that they don't want to control more than a specific amount of the network share.

And it doesn't matter if you can resell the shares. By the time you've recouped your costs with AM, if you bought a BFL miner, you'd be able to buy a newer, cheaper, more powerful and more efficient one with the profits. The BFL alone would likely recoup the cost of the new miner before you recouped the cost of an AM share.

So, who's in the better position? You still waiting to recoup the cost of an AM share, or me having recouped my costs and having a BFL and brand spanking new miner generating pure profit?

Obviously you're happier



... in your fantasy land.







You could invest your AM divs in a spanking new miner too, or back into AM. Recouping != ROI.

[Lohoris]

Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

competition should arrive "in about two weeks", I've been told.

[velacreations]

AM increasing hashing power will not automatically increase their dividends. Their hash rate has to increase at a rate greater than that of the network hash rate in order to that.

yes, but it will keep their dividends stable, which will increase the share price from where it is right now.

AM have also stated that they don't want to control more than a specific amount of the network share.

citation required

And it doesn't matter if you can resell the shares. By the time you've recouped your costs with AM, if you bought a BFL miner, you'd be able to buy a newer, cheaper, more powerful and more efficient one with the profits. The BFL alone would likely recoup the cost of the new miner before you recouped the cost of an AM share.

this has yet to be true, and BFL has been selling for a year, and AM shares have been selling for 8 months.

You still waiting to recoup the cost of an AM share, or me having recouped my costs and having a BFL and brand spanking new miner generating pure profit?

everyone that bought AM shares under 3.4 are not waiting to recoup their cost.  99% of BFL customers are, though.

[bitfair]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

That's like comparing a computer from Apple to shares in Apple. One is a share in a company, the other is a product from a company.

The hardware has no capability to grow or to strategically adapt, but the company has - and in my opinion you are underestimating that ability.

[velacreations]

competition should arrive "in about two weeks", I've been told.

they told me that 8 months ago... 

[Mabsark]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

If you can sell your AM share for more than 0 BTC after 770 days, then you have no argument. You can't know the price of AM in 770 days, but it likely won't be 0 BTC. Additionally, you can't know the future difficulty so why bother with your pointless simple math.

Why would you want to sell your shares if they're so great? Sure, you can sell your AM shares and then make an actual profit. You could have bought a new miner by that point if you went with BFL though and would be making even more profit.

The point of those examples was to show that even at stupidly high difficulty, which we probably won't see for a few years, BFL still offers better value. If you buy a BFL, you will recoup the costs quicker than you would if you bought an AM share, even if it did take them a year to ship it, which it wouldn't.

[velacreations]

You could have bought a new miner by that point if you went with BFL though and would be making even more profit.

The point of those examples was to show that even at stupidly high difficulty, which we probably won't see for a few years, BFL still offers better value. If you buy a BFL, you will recoup the costs quicker than you would if you bought an AM share, even if it did take them a year to ship it, which it wouldn't.

0 < 3.72

[notme]

LOL
If ASICMINER can not earn additional income form hardware sales, it becomes a regular mining turd and we know what happens to those, when diff keeps going up. (or if you do not,  go and find out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241101.msg2555945)

Generating serious profit from selling hardware is the only thing that keeps it interesting as an investment.

It becomes a regular mining turd with access to hardware at cost that is currently being marked up by a factor of 5-10X production cost.  Give it time.  Serious profit from hardware sales will come, but ramping up production takes time.

[notme]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

If you can sell your AM share for more than 0 BTC after 770 days, then you have no argument. You can't know the price of AM in 770 days, but it likely won't be 0 BTC. Additionally, you can't know the future difficulty so why bother with your pointless simple math.

Why would you want to sell your shares if they're so great? Sure, you can sell your AM shares and then make an actual profit. You could have bought a new miner by that point if you went with BFL though and would be making even more profit.

The point of those examples was to show that even at stupidly high difficulty, which we probably won't see for a few years, BFL still offers better value. If you buy a BFL, you will recoup the costs quicker than you would if you bought an AM share, even if it did take them a year to ship it, which it wouldn't.

Wow.  Just wow.  Please don't invest in AM.

[velacreations]

since your shares are so worthless, I'm sure you won't have a problem selling them to us cheap, right?

[Mabsark]

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

that's hilarious!  

You have no proof of that, only hope.  They are currently shipping orders made a year ago, while AM is shipping units in a few days.  august at the latest?  ha!

When comparing something to nothing, nothing is certainly cheaper.

No, my hope is for July based on 400 units per day, before the end of August is pretty much a certainty.

[velacreations]

No, my hope is for July based on 400 units per day, before the end of August is pretty much a certainty.

kinda like them delivering in March?  hahaha  

I see you like to buy nothing vs buying something.  I tell you what, I'll sell you nothing for cheaper than BFL sells it.

[velacreations]

let's see, .1 btc 8 months ago turned into 3.72 btc with AM.

How many btc did you spend 8 months ago with BFL?  And it has done nothing.

Seriously, I am selling some prime, fresh, top shelf, high quality, authentic nothing cheaper than anyone else!

Get your nothing , here!  Hot Nothing for sale!

[Mabsark]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

Your calculations don't take into account that AM will be implementing increasing hashpower and, hopefully, be mining and generating TX fees for quite a long time. This will likely make the shares still worth something after the ~2 years that it takes to ROI. However, your BFL Jala will be worth nothing after two years.

AM increasing hashing power will not automatically increase their dividends. Their hash rate has to increase at a rate greater than that of the network hash rate in order to that. AM have also stated that they don't want to control more than a specific amount of the network share.

And it doesn't matter if you can resell the shares. By the time you've recouped your costs with AM, if you bought a BFL miner, you'd be able to buy a newer, cheaper, more powerful and more efficient one with the profits. The BFL alone would likely recoup the cost of the new miner before you recouped the cost of an AM share.

So, who's in the better position? You still waiting to recoup the cost of an AM share, or me having recouped my costs and having a BFL and brand spanking new miner generating pure profit?

Obviously you're happier



... in your fantasy land.







You could invest your AM divs in a spanking new miner too, or back into AM. Recouping != ROI.

I never said or implied that recouping your cost = ROI. You could invest your divs into a new miner, that just reinforces my point that buying a miner is currently better value than buying shares.

It's not fantasy, it's basic maths. It is fact. Buying a BFL miner, or any other miner which offers similar of better mining value, will generate a profit from mining income way before an AM share will generate a profit from dividends.

[Mabsark]

Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

competition should arrive "in about two weeks", I've been told.

Well, whoever told you that was lying, the competition has been turning up in increasing numbers for a while now.

[Mabsark]

AM increasing hashing power will not automatically increase their dividends. Their hash rate has to increase at a rate greater than that of the network hash rate in order to that.

yes, but it will keep their dividends stable, which will increase the share price from where it is right now.

AM have also stated that they don't want to control more than a specific amount of the network share.

citation required

And it doesn't matter if you can resell the shares. By the time you've recouped your costs with AM, if you bought a BFL miner, you'd be able to buy a newer, cheaper, more powerful and more efficient one with the profits. The BFL alone would likely recoup the cost of the new miner before you recouped the cost of an AM share.

this has yet to be true, and BFL has been selling for a year, and AM shares have been selling for 8 months.

You still waiting to recoup the cost of an AM share, or me having recouped my costs and having a BFL and brand spanking new miner generating pure profit?

everyone that bought AM shares under 3.4 are not waiting to recoup their cost.  99% of BFL customers are, though.

Who cares? I'm talking about buying now, not during AM's IPO or 1 year ago.