ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[chanson]

They are trinkets but the current demand for them is pretty high if you check the group buy threads
As a shareholder you care about sales not that they are overpriced  as it goes into your dividend every Wednesday  

Yes, that's the short view.

The long view is that each of these devices poisons ASICminer's customers. They burn every customer in more ways than one. You can only fool your sheep customers a few times before the herd learns to not come back and graze. Friedcat's already said we won't have new chips before October (I'm not sure of the language barrier but the phrasing leads me to believe that he's leaving the door wide open for well after October as a definite possibility--which means they're playing catchup).

If ASICminer comes up with new chips and prices them competitively then it's probably fine, but they will be much, much tighter margins than we're used to as stockholders going forward. If ASICminer thinks that their track record alone commands a premium, they better not stumble or swerve at all. It's inconcievable that every single competitor will goof as badly as BFL has--and even BFL looks to be in good shape for an October price war.

[TECHICENINE]

 I'm pretty sure I could assemble a Minirig in under 1 hour


did you watch that BFL video of the jalapeno teardown?..thanks

[velacreations]

immediate delivery is what commands a premium.  order today, receive in a week.

until competition can meet those terms, there is no competition.

[freedomno1]

They are trinkets but the current demand for them is pretty high if you check the group buy threads
As a shareholder you care about sales not that they are overpriced  as it goes into your dividend every Wednesday  

Yes, that's the short view.

The long view is that each of these devices poisons ASICminer's customers. They burn every customer in more ways than one. You can only fool your sheep customers a few times before the herd learns to not come back and graze. Friedcat's already said we won't have new chips before October (I'm not sure of the language barrier but the phrasing leads me to believe that he's leaving the door wide open for well after October as a definite possibility--which means they're playing catchup).

If ASICminer comes up with new chips and prices them competitively then it's probably fine, but they will be much, much tighter margins than we're used to as stockholders going forward. If ASICminer thinks that their track record alone commands a premium, they better not stumble or swerve at all.

Not true
Friedcat only offer units for a short duration, then does not release anything for several weeks so as not to irritate buyers who might speculate and keep waiting for price decreases.

This was shown when he sold out all the previous batch and paused selling them for several weeks.

Investors will learn if you want a good unit from ASICminer you need to be quick to acquire it  

By doing so he is starting a precedent, so that buyers will recognize the opportunity time is short and will come back and buy more units when a new batch comes out.

Smart tactics, regarding the margins on units while they may be decreasing, the quantity of units sold by all means seems to be increasing as a near monopoly they will be still have a huge demand in the short term. In the midterm as you mentioned which is around October newer units will arrive and keep the demand on ASICminer. The amount of demand will be proportional to the market control they have and their production capabilities vs competitors. As long as they keep a profitable margin their will always be value in their share prices.
And the dividend will complement unit sales and the network they are able to maintain.

Their track record does command a premium as no other reliable high production vendor exists on the market at this time, that premium will remain until such a time a competitor appears that meets the same requirements.

Goodwill does have a value and that is seen in any financial statement.

[Pierre]

That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000 
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

Hoooleee crap!

On this list we have 4000 orders totalling 400TH/s but this list is not exhaustive - if you look at the order numbers we can guesstimate that the actual list is around 18000 orders which would be about 1800 TH/s!

Of course in 12 months they haven't even delivered 200 orders so clearing this backlog will take us to 2019

[freedomno1]

I'm pretty sure I could assemble a Minirig in under 1 hour


did you watch that BFL video of the jalapeno teardown?..thanks

You mean this one 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eF6FSdur8k

[Mabsark]

That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000 
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

At an assembly rate of 2 per hour, a single person working 8 hours per day, 5 days per week, could assemble those Minirigs in 39 days.
At an assembly rate of 5 per hour, a single person working 8 hours per day, 5 days per week, could assemble those Singles in 119 days.
At an assembly rate of 10 per hour, a single person working 8 hours per day, 5 days per week, could assemble those Jalapenos in 53 days.

With 2 people assembling Singles, 1 assembling Minirigs and 1 assembling Jalapenos, the backlog could be cleared in 60 days with an adequate supply of components.

[freedomno1]

That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000  
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

At an assembly rate of 2 per hour, a single person working 8 hours per day, 5 days per week, could assemble those Minirigs in 39 days.
At an assembly rate of 5 per hour, a single person working 8 hours per day, 5 days per week, could assemble those Singles in 119 days.
At an assembly rate of 10 per hour, a single person working 8 hours per day, 5 days per week, could assemble those Jalapenos in 53 days.

With 2 people assembling Singles, 1 assembling Minirigs and 1 assembling Jalapenos, the backlog could be cleared in 60 days with an adequate supply of components.

So a lot of people need to use fancy hairdryers to make this a reality XD
Manual process here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eF6FSdur8k

Guys - maybe if we put a video of a mini-itx motherboard being ruined in a heat lamp, people will think we're making ASICs

[Mabsark]

That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000 
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

Hoooleee crap!

On this list we have 4000 orders totalling 400TH/s but this list is not exhaustive - if you look at the order numbers we can guesstimate that the actual list is around 18000 orders which would be about 1800 TH/s!

Of course in 12 months they haven't even delivered 200 orders so clearing this backlog will take us to 2019

If you bothered counting the number of orders delivered, you'd find that they have shipped over 200. Why lie about things which are so easily proven false?

[freedomno1]

That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000  
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

Hoooleee crap!

On this list we have 4000 orders totalling 400TH/s but this list is not exhaustive - if you look at the order numbers we can guesstimate that the actual list is around 18000 orders which would be about 1800 TH/s!

Of course in 12 months they haven't even delivered 200 orders so clearing this backlog will take us to 2019

If you bothered counting the number of orders delivered, you'd find that they have shipped over 200. Why lie about things which are so easily proven false?

Well why say theirs competition now when you have a backlog that still's in 2012  
Being made with hairdryers XD

[Pierre]

If you bothered counting the number of orders delivered, you'd find that they have shipped over 200. Why lie about things which are so easily proven false?

I didn't count them, would have taken several minutes of my life that I'd never get back. I just guessed. Did you count them? What did you get?

[tinus42]

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

I think you are the one that needs to learn math. 

Profit from placing an order a year ago with BFL: BTC0
Profit from purchasing AM share at IPO: 3.4+.32 = BTC3.72 (ignores huge increase in BTC value)

0 < 3.72

Actually. Profit from placing an order for BFL 1 year ago is:

Cost: 149 USD
Hash rate: 4.5 Gh/s
Shipping: 2013/05/18
Delivery: 2013/05/25

Difficulties:
2013/05/25 - 2013/06/05 = 12,153,412
2013/06/05 - 2013/06/16 = 15,605,633
20313/06/16 - current = 19,507,041

Income:
2013/05/25 - 2013/06/05 = 0.1862 BTC per day * 11 days = 2.0482 BTC
2013/06/05 - 2013/06/16 = 0.1450 BTC per day * 11 days = 1.595 BTC
20313/06/16 - current = 0.1170 BTC per day * 8 days = 0.936 BTC
Total = 4.5792 BTC = 457.92 USD @ 100 USD/BTC

Electricity costs:
35W
0.2 USD per kWh
Daily cost = 0.35 * 24 * 0.2 = 0.168 USD
Total usage cost = 0.168 * 30 = 5.04 USD

Profit = 457.92 - 274 - 5.04 = 178.88 USD = 1.7888 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC

If you order from BFL now you risk that they will have their asses sued of them by everyone who ordered a Minirig. Which never shipped and the replacement product has 1/3 the hash power and is 3 times as expensive. I wouldn't pre-order from a company with such an uncertain future no matter how good their product is.

[freedomno1]

Should also mention how much a bitcoin was worth 1 year ago and if you'll ever get that back 

[Mabsark]

That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000  
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

Hoooleee crap!

On this list we have 4000 orders totalling 400TH/s but this list is not exhaustive - if you look at the order numbers we can guesstimate that the actual list is around 18000 orders which would be about 1800 TH/s!

Of course in 12 months they haven't even delivered 200 orders so clearing this backlog will take us to 2019

If you bothered counting the number of orders delivered, you'd find that they have shipped over 200. Why lie about things which are so easily proven false?

Well why say theirs competition now when you have a backlog that still's in 2012  
Being made with hairdryers XD

I'm not saying there's competition now. I'm saying the competition is starting to arrive and it's going to arrive in huge numbers. I'm also saying that because there hasn't been any real competition so far and wont be any for another month or two due to back orders, AM dividends and share prices are inflated above their actual worth. They'll fall once there's competition on the shelves.

[Pierre]

That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000  
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

Hoooleee crap!

On this list we have 4000 orders totalling 400TH/s but this list is not exhaustive - if you look at the order numbers we can guesstimate that the actual list is around 18000 orders which would be about 1800 TH/s!

Of course in 12 months they haven't even delivered 200 orders so clearing this backlog will take us to 2019

If you bothered counting the number of orders delivered, you'd find that they have shipped over 200. Why lie about things which are so easily proven false?

I just counted them and the exact number of delivered orders on that list is.... (drum roll) 169

Oh snap! Nigga you got TOLD!

[Mabsark]

If you bothered counting the number of orders delivered, you'd find that they have shipped over 200. Why lie about things which are so easily proven false?

I didn't count them, would have taken several minutes of my life that I'd never get back. I just guessed. Did you count them? What did you get?

I counted them the other week and I think there was 209 orders delivered. It was definitely in the 200s though.

[freedomno1]

That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000  
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

Hoooleee crap!

On this list we have 4000 orders totalling 400TH/s but this list is not exhaustive - if you look at the order numbers we can guesstimate that the actual list is around 18000 orders which would be about 1800 TH/s!

Of course in 12 months they haven't even delivered 200 orders so clearing this backlog will take us to 2019

If you bothered counting the number of orders delivered, you'd find that they have shipped over 200. Why lie about things which are so easily proven false?

Well why say theirs competition now when you have a backlog that still's in 2012  
Being made with hairdryers XD

I'm not saying there's competition now. I'm saying the competition is starting to arrive and it's going to arrive in huge numbers. I'm also saying that because there hasn't been any real competition so far and wont be any for another month or two due to back orders, AM dividends and share prices are inflated above their actual worth. They'll fall once there's competition on the shelves.

I wouldn't say huge numbers at all.
I keep track of the developments and their is nothing that indicate huge production potential except Klondikes project through Chinese dev teams.
A month or two on BFL is pretty much an impossibility since they have been stuck on 2 weeks forever
It's like measuring Valve time
https://developer.valvesoftware.com/wiki/Valve_Time

[Mabsark]

That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000  
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

Hoooleee crap!

On this list we have 4000 orders totalling 400TH/s but this list is not exhaustive - if you look at the order numbers we can guesstimate that the actual list is around 18000 orders which would be about 1800 TH/s!

Of course in 12 months they haven't even delivered 200 orders so clearing this backlog will take us to 2019

If you bothered counting the number of orders delivered, you'd find that they have shipped over 200. Why lie about things which are so easily proven false?

I just counted them and the exact number of delivered orders on that list is.... (drum roll) 169

Oh snap! Nigga you got TOLD!

Now I'm going to have to go and count them again.

Edit: Yes, you were right. The number I was remembering was the number of Jalapenos shipped, as some of the orders are for multiple unit.

[Pierre]

That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000 
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

Hoooleee crap!

On this list we have 4000 orders totalling 400TH/s but this list is not exhaustive - if you look at the order numbers we can guesstimate that the actual list is around 18000 orders which would be about 1800 TH/s!

Of course in 12 months they haven't even delivered 200 orders so clearing this backlog will take us to 2019

If you bothered counting the number of orders delivered, you'd find that they have shipped over 200. Why lie about things which are so easily proven false?

I just counted them and the exact number of delivered orders on that list is.... (drum roll) 169

Oh snap! Nigga you got TOLD!

Now I'm going to have to go and count them again.

[freedomno1]

https://i.imgur.com/qorOH5y.png

You sir, just got owned
Now go contribute to the list and find 32 more reference cases