ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[TECHICENINE]

today's drop might have something to do with the drop in BTC/USD, as well.

wow!  bitfunder last price was 3.07!

are ASICMINER puts available?..thanks

[Mabsark]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

That's like comparing a computer from Apple to shares in Apple. One is a share in a company, the other is a product from a company.

The hardware has no capability to grow or to strategically adapt, but the company has - and in my opinion you are underestimating that ability.

At the end of the day I'm buying hashing power and don't care what form it takes. I'll buy which offers the best value. Currently, that's not AM even though they're the ones shipping immediately.

[TECHICENINE]

Friedcat just announced price reduction for the USB Block Erupter.  From 2 BTC to 1 BTC.

Assuming the USB sticks are still 333 Mhash/s, that's a 50% reduction in price.  We can infer the new pricing of the new improved blade.  That means the new Block Erupter blade will cost around 25 BTC retail from the original 50 BTC, assuming the hash rate is still 10 GHash/s and newer gen chip is coming out in October.  This means the new blade will not have newer gen chip until October.  Most likely the improvement is power reduction.  Roughly 2.5 BTC per Ghash.


Friedcat said, "If you reach the total volume of 1,000 USB sticks, price is dropped to 0.89 each. We will also pay back the price difference of all your historic transaction (timeline started from the 0.99 pricing) of USB sticks."  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=217104.0

Also, 1000 new USB sticks are 1000 BTC.  About 10% discount.  To get the same type of quantity discount, that means 1000 BTC/ 25BTC per blade = 40 blades purchased by the same party.  Like a sales incentive.  

25 BTC per blade at 10% discount equals 2.5 BTC refund per blade.  Wow.  

Unfortunately, Block Erupter blade is still more expensive than BFL on dollar per GHash.  BFL is $60 per GH.  Newer priced blade is $250 per GH.  Assuming $/BTC is 100 and the new blade pricing is similar to the above estimate.  BFL is shipping, although in limited quantities and there is a huge back log.

.99 from North America ,, 1.25 from China so where are these units being produced i wonder..thanks

[Mabsark]

competition should arrive "in about two weeks", I've been told.

they told me that 8 months ago... 

And what did they tell you 2 weeks ago?

[Lohoris]

We are at page 29.

Since page 19 this thread has mostly been a "mubarak trolls saying crap and people answer to him for some reason".

and now this:


A pity, but looks like this thread might be dead to me...

[ThickAsThieves]

We are at page 29.

Since page 19 this thread has mostly been a "mubarak trolls saying crap and people answer to him for some reason".

and now this:


A pity, but looks like this thread might be dead to me...

+1

[themagicdrake]

We are at page 29.

Since page 19 this thread has mostly been a "mubarak trolls saying crap and people answer to him for some reason".

and now this:
https://i.imgur.com/OIMZJC5.png

A pity, but looks like this thread might be dead to me...

That's all I see too.
We need redemption!

[velacreations]

Who cares? I'm talking about buying now, not during AM's IPO or 1 year ago.

I care, because it completely negates your whole argument that buying BFL was/is more profitable.

[velacreations]

competition should arrive "in about two weeks", I've been told.

they told me that 8 months ago... 

And what did they tell you 2 weeks ago?

2 weeks.  

[Mabsark]

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

I think you are the one that needs to learn math. 

Profit from placing an order a year ago with BFL: BTC0
Profit from purchasing AM share at IPO: 3.4+.32 = BTC3.72 (ignores huge increase in BTC value)

0 < 3.72

Actually. Profit from placing an order for BFL 1 year ago is:

Cost: 149 USD
Hash rate: 4.5 Gh/s
Shipping: 2013/05/18
Delivery: 2013/05/25

Difficulties:
2013/05/25 - 2013/06/05 = 12,153,412
2013/06/05 - 2013/06/16 = 15,605,633
20313/06/16 - current = 19,507,041

Income:
2013/05/25 - 2013/06/05 = 0.1862 BTC per day * 11 days = 2.0482 BTC
2013/06/05 - 2013/06/16 = 0.1450 BTC per day * 11 days = 1.595 BTC
20313/06/16 - current = 0.1170 BTC per day * 8 days = 0.936 BTC
Total = 4.5792 BTC = 457.92 USD @ 100 USD/BTC

Electricity costs:
35W
0.2 USD per kWh
Daily cost = 0.35 * 24 * 0.2 = 0.168 USD
Total usage cost = 0.168 * 30 = 5.04 USD

Profit = 457.92 - 274 - 5.04 = 178.88 USD = 1.7888 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC

[Mabsark]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

If you can sell your AM share for more than 0 BTC after 770 days, then you have no argument. You can't know the price of AM in 770 days, but it likely won't be 0 BTC. Additionally, you can't know the future difficulty so why bother with your pointless simple math.

Why would you want to sell your shares if they're so great? Sure, you can sell your AM shares and then make an actual profit. You could have bought a new miner by that point if you went with BFL though and would be making even more profit.

The point of those examples was to show that even at stupidly high difficulty, which we probably won't see for a few years, BFL still offers better value. If you buy a BFL, you will recoup the costs quicker than you would if you bought an AM share, even if it did take them a year to ship it, which it wouldn't.

Wow.  Just wow.  Please don't invest in AM.

I already have done. Just not at a stupid price.

[Mabsark]

since your shares are so worthless, I'm sure you won't have a problem selling them to us cheap, right?

I' never said they're worthless, I said they're currently overpriced.

[Lohoris]

Stop feeding the troll for fuck's sake!!!

[velacreations]

Stop feeding the troll for fuck's sake!!!

ok, just for you

[Mabsark]

No, my hope is for July based on 400 units per day, before the end of August is pretty much a certainty.

kinda like them delivering in March?  hahaha  

I see you like to buy nothing vs buying something.  I tell you what, I'll sell you nothing for cheaper than BFL sells it.

No not at all like that. They're currently shipping all their products, and are currently into September's orders for Jalapenos.

You can keep ripping on BFL as much as you want but I'm not some arse licking fanboy so I don't care. I have orders and shares with numerous mining companies and stocks.

My argument is not that BFL are godlike and deserve to be worshipped. My argument is that AM is currently overpriced.

[Mabsark]

let's see, .1 btc 8 months ago turned into 3.72 btc with AM.

How many btc did you spend 8 months ago with BFL?  And it has done nothing.

Seriously, I am selling some prime, fresh, top shelf, high quality, authentic nothing cheaper than anyone else!

Get your nothing , here!  Hot Nothing for sale!

Can you not read? I never placed an order with BFL 8 months ago - so I spent nothing. I did however place an order for a 5 GH/s miner with BFL in April and it cost me 1.6 BTC. It was also around that time that I started buying shares in various stock.

[Mabsark]

Who cares? I'm talking about buying now, not during AM's IPO or 1 year ago.

I care, because it completely negates your whole argument that buying BFL was/is more profitable.

How does it? If you buy a BFL now and an AM share now, the BFL miner will generate profit from mining income before the AM shares will generate profit from dividends. That's a fact.

[velacreations]

ok, so, shares are around 3.4 right now, and USB miners are for sale, but I don't think we'll actually get any revenue for that this week.

Any bets on dividends for this week?  I'm gonna guess maybe .017.  Will a lower dividend this week cause I sell off, or have the newbies learned their lesson after the major raping they got last week?

[TECHICENINE]

Who cares? I'm talking about buying now, not during AM's IPO or 1 year ago.

I care, because it completely negates your whole argument that buying BFL was/is more profitable.

How does it? If you buy a BFL now and an AM share now, the BFL miner will generate profit from mining income before the AM shares will generate profit from dividends. That's a fact.

on what exchange?..thanks

[Mabsark]

I find it quite hilarious that people need to resort to "ignore" because they can't refute the maths and can't bear hearing the truth. This is an ASICMINER speculation thread. Just because I'm speculating that share prices will go down and providing mathematical evidence to support my reasoning, that does not make me a troll, it makes me an active participant.